lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 17, 2022 18:21:58 GMT
Here is a interesting What If: What If France Had Started World War II? So could a France that turned Communist be able to take over Europe with the help of the Soviet Union, would Germany ally themselves with their old nemesis, the United Kingdom. |
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Post by Max Sinister on Dec 17, 2022 20:43:18 GMT
Oh, for a moment I thought this was about a TL where the Allies win WW1 as IOTL, but France still goes Communist later. (After feeling encircled by the Reich, Italy, and Franco Spain?)
But if it's set in a TL where the CPs win WW1... then I'd have to know how exactly it happened.
Wouldn't the Germans try to annex Austria if A-H fell apart?
If a French-Soviet coalition stood against the Reich, Italy, and Spain... Britain might support the latter.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 17, 2022 20:45:30 GMT
Wouldn't the Germans try to annex Austria if A-H fell apart? You mean all German speaking parts of the former Austria-Hungary Empire, Hungary gets to become independent and the Balkans will become and remain a mess. |
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Post by Max Sinister on Dec 17, 2022 20:54:56 GMT
Well, the article already mentioned Hungary and Czechoslovakia becoming independent.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 17, 2022 20:57:01 GMT
Well, the article already mentioned Hungary and Czechoslovakia becoming independent. Doubt in the same way as OTL, the German part of Czechoslovakia would go to Germany ore to Austria if it exist after the breakup of the Austria-Hungary Empire. |
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Dec 18, 2022 8:37:32 GMT
If Austria Hungary falls apart after a victorious Central Powers situation it will be quite different from OTL and you probably see a pretty large Hungary emerging, one that still holds large parts of what we now consider to be other countries.
But that said, a France that has lost WW1 would be even more weakened than OTL and would probably have lost some important industrial areas. One going communist also means a less efficient economy and a probable loss of large parts of the colonial empire (which, to be fair, might well end up being a positive, economically speaking). It also means a France with very little in the way of natural resources and trade partners. It should never be underestimated how unpopular communism was with other countries. So, Germany and the UK would probably bring it down pretty quickly. Probably even while it's in the midst of its revolution.
But, let's say that they get some time to stabilise. If that happens, and they then decide to go on the attack, they run right into a stronger Germany while being weaker and poorer than themselves. Of course, a large proportion of the German army would face the Soviets who would also struggle with a Germany (and allies). The UK would certainly be adding quite a bit to that and would cut France off and I can also see Italy taking the chance to get some of the coveted French territories. If France is communist, even Spain might join in to have them fully surrounded.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 18, 2022 15:25:15 GMT
If Austria Hungary falls apart after a victorious Central Powers situation it will be quite different from OTL and you probably see a pretty large Hungary emerging, one that still holds large parts of what we now consider to be other countries. But that said, a France that has lost WW1 would be even more weakened than OTL and would probably have lost some important industrial areas. One going communist also means a less efficient economy and a probable loss of large parts of the colonial empire (which, to be fair, might well end up being a positive, economically speaking). It also means a France with very little in the way of natural resources and trade partners. It should never be underestimated how unpopular communism was with other countries. So, Germany and the UK would probably bring it down pretty quickly. Probably even while it's in the midst of its revolution. But, let's say that they get some time to stabilise. If that happens, and they then decide to go on the attack, they run right into a stronger Germany while being weaker and poorer than themselves. Of course, a large proportion of the German army would face the Soviets who would also struggle with a Germany (and allies). The UK would certainly be adding quite a bit to that and would cut France off and I can also see Italy taking the chance to get some of the coveted French territories. If France is communist, even Spain might join in to have them fully surrounded.
I would agree. The 1st scenario, with a much larger Germany and German empire of protectorates which hasn't seen military restrictions is likely to make mincemeat of a weaker and communist France and unless the USSR is a lot better prepared than OTL it would probably get hammered in terms of attacks on Germany and its allies. Even without British support - which might depend on what state Britain was in - I would expect Germany to defeat a Franco-Soviet alliance. Unless its over-extended and its empire is causing it immense strain I can't see Germany losing this conflict.
In the 2nd scenario with a fascist France & Italy and a loose collection of allies in eastern Europe - who would have their own differences in a number of cases - even without the suggested but possibly unlikely Italian defection and a possible French pioneering of blitzkrieg - I can't see the fascist bloc having any real chance of winning even if Britain stood aside.
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oscssw
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Post by oscssw on Dec 18, 2022 15:43:38 GMT
How do you factor in no Great Depression or one that is more of a less catastrophic recession?
I think the term "the moderating influence of the French Communists could prevent totalitarianism in Europe, and a federation of European people’s republics allies with the Soviets voluntarily is unlikely. After the Civil war of whites against Reds, the victorious Bolsheviks were absolutely fanatically dedicated to wiping out capitalism. I would guess the the French Communists would be just as fanatical.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 18, 2022 15:58:11 GMT
How do you factor in no Great Depression or one that is more of a less catastrophic recession?
I think the term "the moderating influence of the French Communists could prevent totalitarianism in Europe, and a federation of European people’s republics allies with the Soviets voluntarily is unlikely. After the Civil war of whites against Reds, the victorious Bolsheviks were absolutely fanatically dedicated to wiping out capitalism. I would guess the the French Communists would be just as fanatical.
You raise a good point here. With two centres of industrial and fiscal power - the US and Germany - and everybody else impoverished things are going to be different. I can't see Germany not at least seeking to impose heavy indemnities on the defeated allies - probably as large as the allies sought to impose on Germany. Coupled with US demands for debt repayment neither Britain or France are going to have any real resources for even civilian development and when the US fiscal collapse occurs its going to drag down everybody other than probably Germany and the USSR with it. Germany might lead a revival in the 3rd world as it will be in a position to buy their products and also supply finished goods for them. However not sure about any parts of Europe outside the German sphere of dominance.
Of course this assumes that Germany can avoid its own war debts issues after WWI. It owes a lot of money, largely to its own citizens who paid for the conflict and there will be limits to how much Britain and France can pay will other areas such as Belgium won't be able to paid anything as their now part of Germany. OTL when the German government triggered hyper-inflation that solved much of this problem as the debts effectively became irrelevant but I doubt they will be able to do that here.
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michelvan
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Post by michelvan on Dec 18, 2022 17:34:42 GMT
That also scenario in The Free Republic of Outremeuse !
Here France lost War get there version of Treaty of Versailles Potsdam.
France become Communist ruled nation in post war chaos featuring failure of Governments, several elections during year, anti-Semitic Violence.
I had conversation with french about this, all agreed that far right or even fascistic France is impossible scenario.
Far right Action Français or Camelot du Roi were more Anti-semitic Weekend warriors and not political party
Here the Communist are far more Organised power factor in France
Following the Great Depression let to there Communist Victory and dead to Third Republic.
Looking for Allies the Communist found them in USSR ruled by inhumane Marshall Boris Invanoivch Zhestkov (he executed Stalin in 1920 !)
Allot french worked in USSR given them Technology, while France got access to Hardware forbidden under Treaty of Potsdam.
Both leaders are driven by Communist ideology, France and USSR had join enemy: The German Empire
And French develop and test with Soviet help new Technology call "Terror Weapons" like Rocket and Cruise missiles
with ideological doctrine "the end justifies the means" they develop Mustard Gas to use against German military or Civilians !
There Master plan was to attack German Empire simultaneously, were France attack over Belgium/Netherlands and Switzerland into Germany
While USSR made large scale offensive against east Europe toward Germany.
The French were aware that their offensive, would not Victorious, but give Soviets Time attack Germany and finish them.
And what went wrong, went wrong in 1941
Germany was able to terminate faster the French invasion and retaliate the use of mustard gas by bombing french city with nerve gas.
Carpet bombing Paris, already horribly transform into Concrete jungle, by communist urban planning and Le Corbusier.
while pushing the Soviet back home
In end a large Europan coalition led by Germany defeated France and USSR (with help by Kuomintang China)
Then Germany made sure that France Never start a War again...
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