What if 'Pink Tide' Latin America is ISOT'ed from Sept. 1, 2008 to Sept. 1, 1963, back in time 45 ye
Oct 22, 2022 1:56:58 GMT
Post by raharris1973 on Oct 22, 2022 1:56:58 GMT
What if 'Pink Tide' Latin America is ISOT'ed from Sept. 1, 2008 to Sept. 1, 1963, back in time 45 years?
This is the Cold War world of Kennedy, Khrushchev, Mao Zedong and De Gaulle. It is almost a year after the Cuban Missile Crisis, so it is past its scariest point, and there was a trilateral treaty banning surface nuclear tests, but the Cold War is very much in play and the PRC is selling itself as the even more radical alternative (while just starting to climb out of famine) to the USSR, Khrushchev is making a hash of Soviet agriculture, and America sees itself as competing for the Third World with tools of counterinsurgency and aid to prevent any more embarassing "Cuba"s
The specific countries that go back in time, are only those South American and Central American countries that in September, 2008 were under elected left-wing or center-left governments:
These include Venezuela under Hugo Chavez, with a little bit under 4 years left to live under his biological clock
Bolivia under Evo Morales
Ecuador under Rafael Correa
Brazil under Lula Da Silva
Argentina under Christina Ferrer Kirchner
Nicaragua under Daniel Ortega
Honduras under Manuel Zelaya
El Salvador under Mauricio Funes
Guatemala under Alvaro Colom
Panama under Martin Torrijos
One stipulation about all 10 of these ISOT'ed countries - only citizens and legal permanent residents of these countries take the trip back in time. No tourists, travelers, diplomats, foreign business people or students on transient stays.
All the Caribbean islands remain in their downtime 1963 form, as does British Honduras/Belize, the Guianas, and the Falklands. So its the strapping youn 1963 versions of Cuba, Castro and Che Guevara we are left with.
The remaining countries of 1963 Hispanophone America, under conservative or liberal (by early 1960s standards) dictatorial or democratic rule are Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Peru, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, and PRI Mexico -now suddenly the most conservative state.
The United States, already apoplectic about Cuba, is now faced with first a diplomatic black-out from most of the region, and then when it hears of the rhetoric and policies of various leaders, Chavez and Evo most of all, it sees a continent-wide Pink Tide turning dark red in its own perception. It also has a Panama that thinks it owns/operates the Canal.
I think Latin America will rapidly rise up the US foreign policy priority lists.
Meanwhile, the ISOT'ed Latin American countries are in a different world, 45 years more primitive. They have technology installed and in wide use across their territory far more advanced than the rest of the world. They are highly productive in agricultural and mineral commodities. They are also cut off from the markets they'd been relying on to fuel their growth over the last 5-10 years like China. 1963 China might be hungry, but it doesn't have any money. They are also co-habiting the hemisphere with a nuclear-armed northern neighbor that starts contemplating homicidal actions against anyone in the region as soon as anyone starts spreading any rumors about them being Communist or becoming such.
How are various countries and leaders going to explore and learn their capabilities and limits? If the US is invading anybody, how much is local forces possession of many higher technology pieces of gear going to weigh against lack of combat experience against peer powers and limited ability to manufacture more high-tech gear?
-------------------------------
Here is 2nd variant of the same scenario-
9 "Pink tide" countries are brought back from Sept 1, 2008, this time, not including Nicaragua. You'll see why soon. Only instead of going back 45 years, they go back 25 years, to another period of high salience for Latin America in US foreign policy, 1983 and the Reagan Administration -
The 1983 Caribbean, with Castro is there. Che's dead. The 1983 Guyanas are there. 1983, ungrayed, raven-haired Daniel Ortega is still there in fresh, exuberant Sandinista Nicaragua. Downtime 1983 Cocaine-crazy Medellin cartel Colombia is there, and Peru with Shining Path in the hills just getting started, along with the Pinochet and Stroessner dictatorships. But in drop the 2008 Pink Tide countries, and *boom* Andropov and Admiral Gorshkov are getting fleet invites by Chavez, Chavez is warning the world about Reagan's invasion of Grenada in 10 weeks, and instead of being Contra bases and aid recipients, pretty much all Central American countries instantly turn into elected left-wing democracies.
Less of a technology gap, but still substantial and commercially exploitable.
---------
And a 3rd variant -
9 "Pink Tide" Countries from February 1st, 2010 (Honduras had a conservative coup), drop in to the world of February 1st, 1991.
This is about 15 months after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact regimes, and right after the Persian Gulf War, although the Soviet Union is creaking along, the "End of History" is being proclaimed. And then the majority of Latin America from nearly two decades later pops in to be the skunk at the neoliberal party and proclaim, 'the neoliberal order kinda sucks'
Even less of a technology gap, but still substantial and commercially exploitable.
This is the Cold War world of Kennedy, Khrushchev, Mao Zedong and De Gaulle. It is almost a year after the Cuban Missile Crisis, so it is past its scariest point, and there was a trilateral treaty banning surface nuclear tests, but the Cold War is very much in play and the PRC is selling itself as the even more radical alternative (while just starting to climb out of famine) to the USSR, Khrushchev is making a hash of Soviet agriculture, and America sees itself as competing for the Third World with tools of counterinsurgency and aid to prevent any more embarassing "Cuba"s
The specific countries that go back in time, are only those South American and Central American countries that in September, 2008 were under elected left-wing or center-left governments:
These include Venezuela under Hugo Chavez, with a little bit under 4 years left to live under his biological clock
Bolivia under Evo Morales
Ecuador under Rafael Correa
Brazil under Lula Da Silva
Argentina under Christina Ferrer Kirchner
Nicaragua under Daniel Ortega
Honduras under Manuel Zelaya
El Salvador under Mauricio Funes
Guatemala under Alvaro Colom
Panama under Martin Torrijos
One stipulation about all 10 of these ISOT'ed countries - only citizens and legal permanent residents of these countries take the trip back in time. No tourists, travelers, diplomats, foreign business people or students on transient stays.
All the Caribbean islands remain in their downtime 1963 form, as does British Honduras/Belize, the Guianas, and the Falklands. So its the strapping youn 1963 versions of Cuba, Castro and Che Guevara we are left with.
The remaining countries of 1963 Hispanophone America, under conservative or liberal (by early 1960s standards) dictatorial or democratic rule are Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Peru, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, and PRI Mexico -now suddenly the most conservative state.
The United States, already apoplectic about Cuba, is now faced with first a diplomatic black-out from most of the region, and then when it hears of the rhetoric and policies of various leaders, Chavez and Evo most of all, it sees a continent-wide Pink Tide turning dark red in its own perception. It also has a Panama that thinks it owns/operates the Canal.
I think Latin America will rapidly rise up the US foreign policy priority lists.
Meanwhile, the ISOT'ed Latin American countries are in a different world, 45 years more primitive. They have technology installed and in wide use across their territory far more advanced than the rest of the world. They are highly productive in agricultural and mineral commodities. They are also cut off from the markets they'd been relying on to fuel their growth over the last 5-10 years like China. 1963 China might be hungry, but it doesn't have any money. They are also co-habiting the hemisphere with a nuclear-armed northern neighbor that starts contemplating homicidal actions against anyone in the region as soon as anyone starts spreading any rumors about them being Communist or becoming such.
How are various countries and leaders going to explore and learn their capabilities and limits? If the US is invading anybody, how much is local forces possession of many higher technology pieces of gear going to weigh against lack of combat experience against peer powers and limited ability to manufacture more high-tech gear?
-------------------------------
Here is 2nd variant of the same scenario-
9 "Pink tide" countries are brought back from Sept 1, 2008, this time, not including Nicaragua. You'll see why soon. Only instead of going back 45 years, they go back 25 years, to another period of high salience for Latin America in US foreign policy, 1983 and the Reagan Administration -
The 1983 Caribbean, with Castro is there. Che's dead. The 1983 Guyanas are there. 1983, ungrayed, raven-haired Daniel Ortega is still there in fresh, exuberant Sandinista Nicaragua. Downtime 1983 Cocaine-crazy Medellin cartel Colombia is there, and Peru with Shining Path in the hills just getting started, along with the Pinochet and Stroessner dictatorships. But in drop the 2008 Pink Tide countries, and *boom* Andropov and Admiral Gorshkov are getting fleet invites by Chavez, Chavez is warning the world about Reagan's invasion of Grenada in 10 weeks, and instead of being Contra bases and aid recipients, pretty much all Central American countries instantly turn into elected left-wing democracies.
Less of a technology gap, but still substantial and commercially exploitable.
---------
And a 3rd variant -
9 "Pink Tide" Countries from February 1st, 2010 (Honduras had a conservative coup), drop in to the world of February 1st, 1991.
This is about 15 months after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact regimes, and right after the Persian Gulf War, although the Soviet Union is creaking along, the "End of History" is being proclaimed. And then the majority of Latin America from nearly two decades later pops in to be the skunk at the neoliberal party and proclaim, 'the neoliberal order kinda sucks'
Even less of a technology gap, but still substantial and commercially exploitable.
