South Vietnam isot 1969-89

2nd Vietnam's War, wonder what US President George H. W. Bush is going to be, also what US troops are present in 1969 South Vietnam.

How will this ISOT affect our friend in Baghdad's calculations?
And Moscow's?
And London's?
And Brussels's?
raharris1973,

Saddam Hussein's? 

Very little - he will be making his decisions based mainly, like OTL, on his own needs for recovery from the war with Iran, how he feels towards Kuwait (angry) and how he thinks the world will react to any moves on Kuwait 18 months after your PoD. [He probably doesn't think the US or any outside power will get involved or fight over it].  If the US is evacuating its people from South Vietnam and letting it fall to the north, he won't think America is strong. If America is involved in South Vietnam propping it up, he will think America is too busy. The reappearance of 1969 South Vietnam will not change the global price of oil, one way or the other, so minimum direct impact on Iraqi revenue.

Moscow's - 

Will be disappointed and flummoxed by the loss of its South China Sea Naval forces basing from come Cam Ranh Bay. The USSR will feel a sense of obligation to send arms aid to North Vietnam and replace disappeared equipment. It will diplomatically discourage a new American war in Vietnam and stick with a rhetorical line of supporting Vietnamese unity. It won't be rah-rah about conflict or excited to be involved, considering its absorption into its own reform process and its priority on rapprochement with the west, and now also China, over geopolitical competition.

London's - 

Oh that's interesting - 'Oh Uncle Sam, don't take your eye off the ball and get too involved down there. I suppose we've got our man at our embassy in Saigon. Best to pull up chocks and try to give a consular warning to any of our citizens, journalists, doctors, volunteers who died from being in the wrong place and wrong time in South Vietnam that being there turned out fatal and offer them a ride out.'

Brussels - 

At this time NATO command ? With EU not being so developed yet. Commanders pretty much thinking, hmm, 'hope our assets don't get drawn down too much for any special extraction, or worse, fighting, operations in Southeast Asia, that reduces what we have in case there's a hardliner change in power in the USSR.' But they'll all go along with national government policy.

But you missed other relevant relevant capitals-

Canberra
Auckland
Seoul
Manila
Bangkok

--these all had troop contingents in South Vietnam - so their reaction is "Get our boys out"

It will be eyebrow-raising for them, but they're so invested in the cause that they will regard the north as more authentic, patriotic and moral than the puppet south however.

I guess the 9 day old Bush administration would mediate a deal to prevent a second Vietnam War from occurring.


Those Filipino, New Zealander, South Korean, Australian, and Thai soldiers in downtime South Vietnam would want to be brought back home. One Filipino in our history group shared that his father was killed in a sniper attack in 1969. His father was one of the 9 Filipino KIA in the Vietnam War. Perhaps he gets a second chance to meet his father again if brought home successfully. Corazon Aquino would definitely want those troops back home. Not that this butterflies away any coup against her administration.

I don't see this affecting Manuel Noriega of Panama and Saddam Hussein. Noriega will still be overthrown by angry United States and Saddam will still invade Kuwait regardless.