Post by stevep on Sept 24, 2022 13:13:27 GMT
I would agree with Simon. Unless Stalin occupies the east I would expect it to be totally restored although hopefully with a more liberal regime. Also for the Czech republic although what happens to the Sudetenland Germans or whether it can be recombined with Slovakia - which IIRC is now a semi-fascist regime. Not sure what the situation would be with Austria. Your likely to see a new, more determined attempt to disarm Germany but how would depend on the circumstances.
And we can expect the same from Mussolini vis-a-vis Austria? Or an intervention on his part to 'liberate' Austria on behalf of his old clerico-fascist friends.
On the Mussolini question in general, 'news from the future' might see him couped out. But he could easily not, and live la vida Franco. I think Britain will think his aggressions and threat are too small potatoes to be worth a war. For a sense of "completeness" about reversing 1930s aggression, Britain may eventually, probably after the occupation of China is resolved, try to lead League of Nations sanctions against Italy to force evacuation from Ethiopia proper, and possibly support armed Haile Selassie loyalists, while doing it, and from Albania.
I'm not sure what Stalin will do and we have no real way of telling. From what I've read the western powers had made clear to Poland their guarantee was only for their western territories and against Germany so if he does move they may not press the issue. Especially since those lands have relatively few Poles in them. On the other hand they did consider expanding the war to include Russia after the latter's attack on Finland - albeit that seemed to be at least partly a vast underestimation of Soviet power and a desire to reduce its ability to support Germany. Here since Britain knows that the Red Army is current large but weak and that however it can be a very dangerous threat so I suspect that if its just the Baltic states and/or eastern Poland while the latter especially would cause tension their unlikely to seek war over it. Not sure whether Stalin would seek to move against Finland? Of course the other unknown is that while the western powers aren't directly hostile to the USSR as the Germans were 45 Britain now makes them a lot more powerful and Stalin is nothing if not paranoid so he could do something rash but he did tend to be pretty cautious.
I can't see Mussolini making a move on Austria, although its not something I had considered so thanks for pointing that out. Think that boat had passed with the incorporation of Austria into Germany Possibly against Greece or Yugoslavia in the hope that the allies are too distracted by Germany but I think that would prompt an allied reaction. It could be that news from the future along with possibly some diplomatic hints that Mussolini could be removed as he was in 43 OTL although probably with him living out his life in exile somewhere. Not sure whether the allies would push the issue of Ethiopia or not. However unless Italy attacks somewhere the allies consider important I think its very much on the back burner until Germany, Japan and some sort of stability with regards to the USSR and China are sorted out.
