Little Entente ISOT

    melanie ,

   Well with France from 1999 as well its a no contest.  It has powerful military forces and of course nukes so Nazi Germany is toast.  Parts of it literally if they don't surrender quickly enough. 

  Without them its fraught for everybody.  The Czechs and Romanians will have some decent forces - albeit without logistic support/supply in some cases - and also lie across supply lines into both the Balkans and southern USSR.  Not sure of the status of the assorted fragments of Yugoslavia with the divisions between then although unlikely to see Croatia being a Nazi ally here.  Both Tito's partisans and the Axis forces trying to defeat him have gone however.  At a time when the Soviets are starting Operation Uranus and also of course it means the Germans are likely to start questioning the loyalty of the down-time Romanian forces, which they depend on in the east.  Plus the Axis have lost control of the industry of Bohemia and Slovakia and their primary oil source in Polesti as well as of much of the Danube as a supply line.

  I would suspect that the LE [Little Entente] nations would be defeated without France as their too isolated from both western and Soviet aid - the latter they would view as dubious.  However their really going to screw over a lot of Axis forces and resources in the fight and also so much of their industry and logistics so it could take a year or so off the war.  The Soviets unfortunately might be the big gainers, especially with Axis forces being withdrawn from the USSR, despite the crisis there to counter the even greater crisis that has just occurred.

  The allies might get a big local gain if the Germans decide they can't intervene in French N Africa against Operation Torch as they need the forces further north.  Which would leave Rommel and the Italian forces in Libya isolated and forced to surrender so probably by the end of the year all the coast of N Africa is in allied hands.  Which might enable earlier landings in Sicily and points north but, assuming the LE lose how quickly would German forces be back to support the Italians?  I can't see landings in the Balkans because the allies won't really have the forces and the US was fanatically opposed to the idea.  The down side of this is that the inexperienced forces involved OTL lack a lot of the actual combat experience they gained OTL and with the removal of some of the dead wood as well.  Which could be nasty when they face real opposition.

  Its possible that if they can get their act together in the chaos they find themselves in the LE can survive until probably Soviet forces arrive to 'assist' them but its going to be very bloody.  Mind you were any of them in NATO at that stage and possibly have some other, probably US forces also based there.  Which wouldn't make a big difference as their even more isolated from supply but would aid and also make it more of a priority for the west to get aid to them ASAP if they can.  Possibly if they can hold on and the western allies could be persuaded to invade Greece, although it would be a dangerous operation and possibly also Bulgaria switches sides then something could be held in the region.  Which would mean the Balkans and a chunk of central Europe would end up in the western camp as well as the war ending a lot quicker.

  Anyway, as I say with 1999 France its a walk over for the up-timers and allies.  Without them its a complex and interesting scenario.