A (not yet) communist bloc ISOT'd 1923 to 1948

  Good points.  I think its basically the areas under Soviet control but not formally part of the USSR that is being mentioned.  For instance those parts of Poland and Germany annexed by the USSR, along with Bessarabia/Moldava would stay part of the 1948 USSR but see what Melanie says.  Plus with Germany it would just be the Weimar in the Soviet occupation zone, the allied zones in Germany generally and W Berlin still being from 1948.

  Stalin has lost a lot of controlled territory and also all the forces and security people that were in the occupied Soviet zone.  However those areas are accepted by internal agreement to be under Soviet control and also their now quite weak, as well as confused by the sudden position their in.  As such it would be fairly easy for them to occupy the regions again, provided that the west doesn't oppose this.  The west, having largely demobilized has relatively little forces on the ground in the western zone of Germany or the world in general at this stage but they do have forces in place and a monopoly of the bomb.  Would Truman decide that the fact the 1923 people have done nothing to deserve Soviet occupation - although there could be the standard issue with any war criminals, especially leading Nazis who were in the affected area in 1923 - and hence the prior agreement is null and void?  If so does Stalin back down or decide to call Truman's bluff and if so is it a bluff.

  At this stage the Berlin blockade hasn't yet started - not until June 48 - and the Chinese civil war is still ongoing.  As such any clash could easily spread outside Europe across much of east Asia and possibly the ME as well given Anglo-American domination of the latter and its proximity to the Soviet Union.  Also just remembered that the Greek civil war is ongoing until 1949 so that would be a source of tension but the communists have lost their supply centres and refuges in Yugoslavia and Bulgaria.

  If Truman doesn't decide to oppose this the down-timers are going to be stomped pretty damned quickly but it won't be without costs to the Soviets, who are already reeling from the loss of their forces in the region.  Plus there would be issues with Albania and Yugoslavia which weren't part of the Warsaw Pact.  All those areas wouldn't have been devastated by WWII but are technological somewhat backward, even in Germany compared to their 1948 versions.  There would be a mass exodus of people, probably especially from Germany and Bohemia as they would be within reach of a border with western Germany.  Possibly for some Yugoslavs - into Italy or Greece along with Bulgarians into Greece and Turkey but given old hatreds and also less communications in those southern regions this could be less significant.

  Right so its all of 1923 Germany, Poland etc.  That means even bigger Soviet territorial and human losses but also removes the western presence in OTL W Berlin and what became the FRG.  Everybody's going to be confused and uncertain and Stalin is more likely to make a move here.

  You also have Hitler and a lot of other leading Nazis still alive so regardless of the legal issue of prosecuting someone for something they haven't yet done a lot of people are going to be out for his blood.  His Beer Hall Putsch wasn't until Nov 23 so he's still a relatively minor fringe figure but Germany is reeling from the self-imposed hyper-inflation.  Poland is more stable at this point and possibly well armed to defend against another Soviet attack - if that had been the 1923 Red Army - but not a 1948 one.  Czechoslovakia is in decent condition as well but again not prepared for the development of weapons.  Even more so with the other nations to the south.

  Not sure at all what happens in this scenario but think that Stalin will seek to 'take back' at least the 1948 USSR borders and want the leading Nazis brought to 'justice'.  Which is probably going to be an excuse for him to take over at least the regions under Soviet control prior to the ISOT.  I think war of some kind is inevitable.