melanie
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Post by melanie on Aug 27, 2022 8:11:33 GMT
The Russian Empire gets sent 70 years forward in time from 1913. Here's what's now in 1983:  |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 27, 2022 13:07:26 GMT
Well that's going to cause some chaos.
Thinking 1st of what's left of 2022 Russia there is the Kaliningrad enclave, S Sakhalin and the Kuriles and assorted people and forces overseas. Things such as the Wagner group forces in Syria and Mali are unlikely to last long without support but their Med fleet and worst of all any boomers at sea could be very dangerous. Both of them along with the Kaliningrad area have nukes - not sure about Russian forces in their N Pacific territories. How those groups are going to react to their nation disappearing and being replaced by Czarist Russia from over a century before would be a key factor. Some might try and work with it if only because of being Russian nationalists and also the only real option that they won't see an an enemy/threat.
A lot of down time nations have lost territory while others have simply gone. In the latter case for instance all the Central Asian and Caucasus states along with the Baltic's and Finland. In terms of partitioned states 2022 Ukraine has largely disappeared, only the former Austrian province being left, along with their diaspora, which is enlarged somewhat by the refugees from the war. What attitude the west will have to a restored Ukraine I don't know as the vast majority of that state, whatever borders apply is now in its 1913 state and hence its loyalty may be uncertain. Similarly with the Baltic's which are members of both NATO and the EU would either of those groups seek to 'liberate' their down-time counterparts? Especially since while they - uptime Russian nukes permitting - could force their way in the task of upgrading them to modern technology and social standards and the like would be substantial, even in relatively small and lightly populated states. Similarly with Finland, not yet in NATO but part of the EU.
One state, again possibly depending on the reaction of the Kaliningrad forces, which would be almost certain to go to war would be Poland while has lost much of its core territories including of course its capital. This would weaken it a lot and also its military but it would still be likely to easily outclass the vastly greater numbers of Imperial Russian forces and could probably get some support from many down-time Poles, along with some other minorities such as the Jews. However again that would then leave it with a huge task of seeking to upgrade the 1913 territories.
I think Turkey has lost some of its territory to Russia along with possibly parts of Armenia after its partition between the Turks and Soviets in ~1922 and also there are large numbers of Armenians in some of those territories who would definitely not want to come under Turkish rule, even before they learn about the genocide that would have killed many of their co-nationalists a short time in their future.
Japan of course has claims on at least part of the Kurils but whether they would seek to enforce that claim I don't know. China with claims to vast areas in the Russian far east could be more of an issue especially given the loss of trade with Russia will deepen their problems and hence the desire for a foreign distraction.
Other than that Iran and possibly even the Taliban could be problems for the Russian empire as they seek to export their respective 'revolutions' to the Central Asia provinces of the empire. Iran has the military strength to actually invade in its own right although that could prompt other powers to oppose this, chiefly the western block.
On top of this of course are a lot of trading links, foreign debts, the potential for some nasty illnesses emerging from the empire etc.
I'm not sure what the reaction of the west would be. They would definitely want to see reforms in the empire but at the same time their likely to find it less repulsive than other states, such as China, Iran and NK, which their willing to kind of accept - or even Putin's Russia before his attack on Ukraine. As such there would be a basis for some agreement at least to live and let live and then increasing co-operation. One big advantage the 2022 world has here is that advances in medical technology could make life much better for the Tsarevitch Alexi and his hemophilia.
Anyway, initial thoughts on what would be a very complex issue.
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Post by raharris1973 on Aug 27, 2022 17:30:19 GMT
Good response stevep but she was talking about the world of 1983, not 2022 for Russia to pop up in. |
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melanie
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Post by melanie on Aug 28, 2022 6:55:55 GMT
As the map indicates, a big chunk of Romania is now from 1913, as well. At least part of Ceaucescu's regional government and local party branches and offcial are gone, as are any military and police/auxillaries.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 28, 2022 13:57:56 GMT
Good response stevep but she was talking about the world of 1983, not 2022 for Russia to pop up in.
Damn! Always remember to ACTUALLY READ THE BLOODY OP!!!. Overlooked the 70 years ahead bit.  Well that was an hour or so wasted.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Aug 28, 2022 14:27:46 GMT
The Russian Empire gets sent 70 years forward in time from 1913. Here's what's now in 1983:
Right, trying again after my cock up yesterday. Some of what I said still applies but a lot less will be different.
Things are a lot more dangerous here as there are a lot of Soviet boomers who have just lost all contact with Moscow, along with possibly other nuclear forces in the air. Assuming that doesn't leas to a nuclear exchange become someone assumes the worst - as if that's the case all bets are off.
The Soviet empire is still in existence kind of, because as well as the fragments of USSR territory mentioned before there are substantial Soviet forces in eastern Europe along with at this time Afghanistan and probably smaller groups elsewhere in the world. However without a secure home base to maintain its equipment and supplies its going to be distinctly fragile and could well have a life span that is numbered in months. Its naval forces and any units in the air are going to have nowhere they can really base from or be supplied to any degree and air units aren't going to have anywhere safe to land inside their old homeland. Which would raise the question of what happens to all those military units with no home to go to and how easily does the empire die? They could try and take over imperial Russia but that's likely to be resisted not only by the 1913 Russians but by elements in the west who don't want that to happen. One other issue of course is who speaks for the rump USSR in this case? Some PolitBuro survivor who happens to be out of the ISOT impact, a general - probably in command of forces in E Europe or whom and the possibility of some disputes over who is their leader.
Iran and probably Turkey and China are less of threats here given that attacks on imperial Russia by them could quite possibly be met by a nuclear reaction from their Soviet equivalent. [They might want to replace the Czar but their not going to want outsiders grabbing bits of what they consider their territory.
Not sure what eastern Europe will do. The regime in E Germany will probably want to support the Red Army to protect their own position but Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria may be distinctly less supportive of the idea. Plus for Poland its lost about half its territory to 1913 Russia along with much of its political leadership at a point where IIRC its recently imposed military rule to suppress the Solidarity union. Possibly if a clear Soviet leader emerges they might seek to make a deal with Poland to win support from them in return for 'returning' eastern Poland to them after overwhelming the Russian empire?
There's going to be a lot less economic impact here as the affected area is far less integrated into the wider world economy than it would be in 2022, let alone that the 1983 economy is a lot more fragmented anyway.Most of the damage will be inside the former Soviet bloc although some factors such as grain sales to Russia could still be affected as imperial Russia although very backward here was an exporter of grain.
Going to be the standard issues of ownership of resources, especially related to down-time non-Russians [i.e. from outside the empire] caught up in the ISOT. Imagine some merchant or industrialist visiting Russia to sort out a deal who now returns home to dispute the claims of his great grandchild over his former home and possessions.
At this point the west is split between the more confrontational Reagan and Thatcher and the more cautious continental members of NATO so there could be tension if not clear disagreement there.
On the down side there is a sizeable population across a vast section of the globe that needs upgrading for 70 years of change and also a lot more coal, oil and gas in the down-time territories which could make global warming problems even worse. Although when the dust settles some of the environmental problems causes under the Soviet period could hopefully be avoided.
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Well that was an hour or so wasted.