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Post by justiniano on Jun 8, 2022 17:02:22 GMT
First off since Ethiopia was a hellscape of violence during the Derg's regime spending most of their resources on crushing rival communist factions, ethnic separatists, and Somalis. What if first, the Derg made compromises with other communist factions to avoid becoming the hellscape Ethiopia was when it was communist.
Next of course for rapid industrialization, you need many well-educated people which Ethiopia simply did not have. So, China, North Korea, and every country in the Warsaw pact donate a dozen educated people each to work for Ethiopia's communist party, in exchange. Ethiopia gives each of these countries 0.00025% of their 1988 GDP. A long with 0.00025% of their GDP at the end of every subsequent year that they remain communist.
Another thing is idk if they had enough natural gas to supply this industrialization (ik they definitely don't have enough oil or coal) Maybe they can start the renaissance damn, or a smaller version of it that could be completed in 1987 (ofc this would mean donating water to Egypt later down the line to prevent a war) or maybe make many (possibly DIY) solar panels
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 8, 2022 18:06:07 GMT
1988 GDP was $10.91 billion U.S, so 10.91 million USD. Why are they paying 9 separate countries $98 million every year for advisors when the Soviets had more and sent more than that without the annualised payment?
Furthermore, they did have their own universities and PhD programmes as of 1987. They also had factories and industry. They weren’t Umboto Gorge.
1988 is not an advantageous time to start trying to ape the Soviets in the 1930s, given what happens the next year.
Could they industrialise more? Yes. Foreign technical expertise could address the bottleneck, but 108 men is too little, too late.
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Post by justiniano on Jun 8, 2022 20:29:06 GMT
simon darkshade, ty. Check my edit. What do you Think this means for the rest of history? would the USSR survive any longer? What would Ethiopia be like tody?
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 9, 2022 1:40:50 GMT
It isn’t the monetary figure that is the problem, but the notion that a few dozen ‘educated people’ will somehow kickstart a rapid industrialisation.
It won’t.
Furthermore, there will be no change to his trot with such a minor and peripheral alteration, so we still see the fall of communism in Eastern Europe and collapse of the USSR.
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Post by justiniano on Jun 9, 2022 2:47:36 GMT
simon darkshade, But in TTL the Derg made compromises with other communist factions to avoid becoming the hellscape Ethiopia was in OTL.
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 9, 2022 11:41:01 GMT
It doesn’t matter if they formed a national dancing group. The reasons for the fall of communism in Eastern Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union were not changeable based on what happens in Ethiopia.
If the Derg do some things differently internally, there will some small internal alterations, but not a sea change.
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Post by justiniano on Jun 9, 2022 16:45:36 GMT
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Post by justiniano on Jun 9, 2022 16:48:32 GMT
simon darkshade, Also, does Eritrea remain a part of Ethiopia for any longer?
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 9, 2022 17:16:30 GMT
I can’t see it existing past 1991, nor control of Eritrea past the same year.
The fall of the Soviet Union and communism was a big thing for those of us who lived through it. It’s effects can’t be butterflied by 324 advisors.
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Post by justiniano on Jun 9, 2022 17:20:52 GMT
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 9, 2022 17:26:20 GMT
No, as the change comes too late and is far too little.
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Post by justiniano on Jun 9, 2022 23:03:57 GMT
simon darkshade,Would the communists at least erase illiteracy in Ethiopia like they did in Albania?
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 10, 2022 6:53:22 GMT
Not in 3 years and with a handful of people. I hate sounding like a broken record, but nothing much can be changed in a backwards country with only 3 years of time.
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Post by justiniano on Jun 10, 2022 17:54:13 GMT
Will Ethiopia's literacy rate be any higher than it is in OTL?
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 11, 2022 2:40:44 GMT
Perhaps a small statistical anomaly, but nothing noticeable.
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