lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 15, 2016 20:23:49 GMT
So what if the French mange to win the Franco-Prussian war of 1870, how will the future of a none-unified Germany look and what will the effect be of a victorious French Empire. Francoprussianwar.com |
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Rematog
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Post by Rematog on Jan 20, 2016 20:11:21 GMT
How do they manage to win it? Not extremly familar with that war, but don't have the impression it was a near run thing for the Germans.
But, for an AH, I'd consider the Franco-Prussian War, World War I and World War II (in Europe) as a three round bout. This AH has the French winning round one, giving two results. First, Germany is resentful and looks forward to revenge in round 2. Second, with France dominant in Europe after winning the F-P war, the British back Germany in round 2. (the British have a long history of trying to balance thing by opposing whoever is on top at the moment.... and a long history of opposing France). So, then France losses round 2, and is in disorder. Fascist France under the Formidable Leader De Gaulle (Fuhrer is german for leader - boy, would this piss off the French) seeks revenge, blaming the jews for "stabing France in the back. (the French were anti-semitic too, it wasn't only a german flaw).
Now write the AH of Facist France invading Germany to kick off WWII..... With Emperial Russia as her ally against an Emperial German under Wilhelm IV. (A winnnig Germany might not send Lenin to Russia...)
The US could be on either side of this one....... Maybe Japan is allied with Britian (again, Japan was an Allied power in OTL WWI) and US is allied with Facist France under our Great Kingfish, Huey Long.....
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 12, 2016 11:36:17 GMT
Lordroel
As Rematog says how do the French win? Its unlikely given the relative disorder of the French forces and poor leadership under Napoleon III but not impossible. This both affects the war and what the assorted powers do afterwards. For instance if Austria isn't reconciled to Prussian dominance of Germany and thanks to better French political leadership joins in you will have a radically different outcome to the French winning on their own. Another alternative is that Napoleon III still makes a mess of things but the republican reaction is better coordinated and the Prussians lose a long war with them, possibly with some German powers getting frustrated with Prussia insisting on a 'victory' that seems unlikely and is extremely costly.
Presuming France wins under Nappy III then obviously A-L stays French. He might seek to annex Luxembourg or the Saar but does he get delusions of grandeur and try and go further? Say the 'natural' border of the Rhine. That would alienate and unite German nationalists and you would have a later war almost certainly. In this as Rematog says Britain is very likely to side with Germany and even if Russia is allied to France I would suspect the Franco-Russian powers would be defeated, probably within a couple of years. Even with German develops less rapidly industrially, which may be the case, France is likely to face the OTL demographic problems and Britain's control of the seas and powerful financial and industrial position makes an isolated France very vulnerable presuming Germany reacts to a defeat in 1870 with military reforms, which seems highly likely.
Alternatively, if the defeat and resultant peace is relatively moderate and especially if France plays the pre-war diplomatic manoeuvring better and Prussia is seem as the aggressor and bad guy, things could be radically different. You might see a reaction in Germany against Prussian militarism and the restoration of independence for Hanover and some of the Prussian gains in 1866 could be reversed. Austria might regain influence in southern Germany and Prussia is the power isolated. It would still dominate most of northern Germany but markedly less so than OTL and could lack the political/diplomatic freedom to impose their will by force. How thing develop a generation or so later could hugely vary.
Steve
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 22, 2016 23:38:20 GMT
Lordroel 1. As Rematog says how do the French win? Its unlikely given the relative disorder of the French forces and poor leadership under Napoleon III but not impossible. This both affects the war and what the assorted powers do afterwards. For instance if Austria isn't reconciled to Prussian dominance of Germany and thanks to better French political leadership joins in you will have a radically different outcome to the French winning on their own. Another alternative is that Napoleon III still makes a mess of things but the republican reaction is better coordinated and the Prussians lose a long war with them, possibly with some German powers getting frustrated with Prussia insisting on a 'victory' that seems unlikely and is extremely costly. 2. Presuming France wins under Nappy III then obviously A-L stays French. He might seek to annex Luxembourg or the Saar 3. but does he get delusions of grandeur and try and go further? Say the 'natural' border of the Rhine. That would alienate and unite German nationalists and you would have a later war almost certainly. In this as Rematog says Britain is very likely to side with Germany and even if Russia is allied to France I would suspect the Franco-Russian powers would be defeated, probably within a couple of years. 4. Even with German develops less rapidly industrially, which may be the case, France is likely to face the OTL demographic problems and Britain's control of the seas and powerful financial and industrial position makes an isolated France very vulnerable presuming Germany reacts to a defeat in 1870 with military reforms, which seems highly likely. 5. Alternatively, if the defeat and resultant peace is relatively moderate and especially if France plays the pre-war diplomatic manoeuvring better and Prussia is seem as the aggressor and bad guy, things could be radically different. You might see a reaction in Germany against Prussian militarism and the restoration of independence for Hanover and some of the Prussian gains in 1866 could be reversed. Austria might regain influence in southern Germany and Prussia is the power isolated. It would still dominate most of northern Germany but markedly less so than OTL and could lack the political/diplomatic freedom to impose their will by force. How thing develop a generation or so later could hugely vary. Steve 1. What about having Napoleon III invest more in military technology throughout his reign, avoid military interventions in Mexico and Korea, and let his generals determine how to fight against Prussia while he himself will simply be at the front (in uniform, of course) in order to boost morale among his troops (but without him actually determining French battlefield strategy), though? 2. Completely agreed. 3. Unlikely, IMHO. 4. Completely agreed. However, I think that you mean "Prussia" rather than "Germany" here.  5. Completely agreed. Also, though, I think that such a defeat might compel King Wilhelm I of Prussia to fire Bismarck and possibly even to resign himself. In turn, this would mean that Frederick III would become the new King of Prussia and would actually be able to try pushing through democratic reforms in Prussia due to the fact that he certainly isn't going to be dying of throat cancer (yet, at least) in this scenario. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 23, 2016 20:30:04 GMT
Lordroel 1. As Rematog says how do the French win? Its unlikely given the relative disorder of the French forces and poor leadership under Napoleon III but not impossible. This both affects the war and what the assorted powers do afterwards. For instance if Austria isn't reconciled to Prussian dominance of Germany and thanks to better French political leadership joins in you will have a radically different outcome to the French winning on their own. Another alternative is that Napoleon III still makes a mess of things but the republican reaction is better coordinated and the Prussians lose a long war with them, possibly with some German powers getting frustrated with Prussia insisting on a 'victory' that seems unlikely and is extremely costly. 2. Presuming France wins under Nappy III then obviously A-L stays French. He might seek to annex Luxembourg or the Saar 3. but does he get delusions of grandeur and try and go further? Say the 'natural' border of the Rhine. That would alienate and unite German nationalists and you would have a later war almost certainly. In this as Rematog says Britain is very likely to side with Germany and even if Russia is allied to France I would suspect the Franco-Russian powers would be defeated, probably within a couple of years. 4. Even with German develops less rapidly industrially, which may be the case, France is likely to face the OTL demographic problems and Britain's control of the seas and powerful financial and industrial position makes an isolated France very vulnerable presuming Germany reacts to a defeat in 1870 with military reforms, which seems highly likely. 5. Alternatively, if the defeat and resultant peace is relatively moderate and especially if France plays the pre-war diplomatic manoeuvring better and Prussia is seem as the aggressor and bad guy, things could be radically different. You might see a reaction in Germany against Prussian militarism and the restoration of independence for Hanover and some of the Prussian gains in 1866 could be reversed. Austria might regain influence in southern Germany and Prussia is the power isolated. It would still dominate most of northern Germany but markedly less so than OTL and could lack the political/diplomatic freedom to impose their will by force. How thing develop a generation or so later could hugely vary. Steve 1. What about having Napoleon III invest more in military technology throughout his reign, avoid military interventions in Mexico and Korea, and let his generals determine how to fight against Prussia while he himself will simply be at the front (in uniform, of course) in order to boost morale among his troops (but without him actually determining French battlefield strategy), though? 2. Completely agreed. 3. Unlikely, IMHO. 4. Completely agreed. However, I think that you mean "Prussia" rather than "Germany" here. 5. Completely agreed. Also, though, I think that such a defeat might compel King Wilhelm I of Prussia to fire Bismarck and possibly even to resign himself. In turn, this would mean that Frederick III would become the new King of Prussia and would actually be able to try pushing through democratic reforms in Prussia due to the fact that he certainly isn't going to be dying of throat cancer (yet, at least) in this scenario. 1) Possibly, especially simply him leaving the actual fighting to the generals rather than intervening could at least make it a lot more difficult for the Germans. 3) Possibly but wouldn't exclude it. Or possibly some move to gain Leige or more of Belgium. 4) By this time Prussia was the bulk of Germany, at least outside the Austrian lands. Also thanks to Bismarck's diplomacy and Louis Napoleon's incompetence other German states had joined the war against France. Defeat here and the loss of German territory could well mean that both they all look towards military reforms and greater co-operation. 5) If Wilhelm I did resign earlier then Frederick III might have some time to instal reforms. Although after the defeat against France any changes that might seem to weaken the country's military could be difficult. One impact of Frederick reigning longer and also a less powerful Germany could be a close relationship with Britain against the dominance of France. |
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deltaforce
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Post by deltaforce on Mar 14, 2017 7:29:14 GMT
So what if the French mange to win the Franco-Prussian war of 1870, how will the future of a none-unified Germany look and what will the effect be of a victorious French Empire. Francoprussianwar.comThe Wikipedia article makes it seem that the French went into the war with significant logistical, infrastructure, and structural problems with their military that put them at a severe disadvantage. The French Army couldn't get its reserves to their deployment locations because units drew from large areas and mobilization plans called for troops to report to depots and then report to their units with there being no provision for coordinating with the railroads. The Germans had reserve units based around specific areas and extensive railroad mobilization plans, so they were able to get their troops to the front more easily and greatly outnumbered the French. The French Chassepot rifle was superior to the German Dreyse needle gun, having a greater range and higher velocity for a flatter trajectory, but the artillery arm focused heavily on mitrailleuse volley guns instead of more conventional artillery (weapons so secret that only a few people were trained on them, a critical failure given their manual operation). The Germans in contrast focused on conventional artillery systems and were able to fire on the French outside their ability to return fire. The war at sea wasn't a major theater, but the French Navy required 200 tons of coal per day while only having a 250 ton stockpile, so it was soon rendered ineffective due to the need to conserve the reserves. The French Navy wasn't able to build up to its full strength either because reservists weren't where they were expected to be. It seems that the French had lost the war before it even began due to inadequate war planning. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Mar 14, 2017 15:53:29 GMT
So what if the French mange to win the Franco-Prussian war of 1870, how will the future of a none-unified Germany look and what will the effect be of a victorious French Empire. Francoprussianwar.comThe Wikipedia article makes it seem that the French went into the war with significant logistical, infrastructure, and structural problems with their military that put them at a severe disadvantage. The French Army couldn't get its reserves to their deployment locations because units drew from large areas and mobilization plans called for troops to report to depots and then report to their units with there being no provision for coordinating with the railroads. The Germans had reserve units based around specific areas and extensive railroad mobilization plans, so they were able to get their troops to the front more easily and greatly outnumbered the French. The French Chassepot rifle was superior to the German Dreyse needle gun, having a greater range and higher velocity for a flatter trajectory, but the artillery arm focused heavily on mitrailleuse volley guns instead of more conventional artillery (weapons so secret that only a few people were trained on them, a critical failure given their manual operation). The Germans in contrast focused on conventional artillery systems and were able to fire on the French outside their ability to return fire. The war at sea wasn't a major theater, but the French Navy required 200 tons of coal per day while only having a 250 ton stockpile, so it was soon rendered ineffective due to the need to conserve the reserves. The French Navy wasn't able to build up to its full strength either because reservists weren't where they were expected to be. It seems that the French had lost the war before it even began due to inadequate war planning. I once heard something and do not know if it true, the French lost the war because Napoleon III had all train tracks leading to Paris and as a result all trains with troops had to get to Paris first before the could get to the front. |
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Post by ashimbabbar on Oct 12, 2019 13:44:22 GMT
Another factor for French defeat was their generals were busy not helping each other, so their forces got crushed separately when coordination could have turned the tide.
Assuming the French have a competent general to organize their forces and his subordinates actually obey him - probable French victory.
However, we msut not forget Napoleon III at the time was a sick man and his son was about 14 at the time. So I don't think we would see a great expansion of France's power.
What we would see, I believe, would be the ruin of Prussia's attempt to unify Germany. We probably would have some loose coalition of states opposed to Prussia under the patronage of both France and Austria.
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James G
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Post by James G on Oct 17, 2019 20:34:30 GMT
Another factor for French defeat was their generals were busy not helping each other, so their forces got crushed separately when coordination could have turned the tide. Assuming the French have a competent general to organize their forces and his subordinates actually obey him - probable French victory. However, we msut not forget Napoleon III at the time was a sick man and his son was about 14 at the time. So I don't think we would see a great expansion of France's power. What we would see, I believe, would be the ruin of Prussia's attempt to unify Germany. We probably would have some loose coalition of states opposed to Prussia under the patronage of both France and Austria. I think that even in defeat, and thus under different circumstances, Germany would unite in the end. The national identity was growing before the war and it seems inevitable. |
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Post by ashimbabbar on Oct 17, 2019 21:01:38 GMT
That's possible, but not around Prussia. It was the victory against France that sealed Prussian hegemony and ofset the defeats of 1866 by making the thn defeated countries partner in the common victory.
Maybe in the next generation in the form of a federal system ?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 18, 2019 13:05:19 GMT
That's possible, but not around Prussia. It was the victory against France that sealed Prussian hegemony and ofset the defeats of 1866 by making the thn defeated countries partner in the common victory.
Maybe in the next generation in the form of a federal system ?
I would say that it was the victory against Austria and its allies in 1866 that sealed Prussian hegemony. They were already dominant in N Germany before that but this showed how much ahead of the other German powers militarily and saw events such as the annexation of Hanover and parts of Scheswig Holstein which further heighten their control. Unless the defeat by France was absolutely crushing, which I could only really see if say the French did a lot better and then Austria joined in and those 1866 annexations were reversed and other limitations put on Prussia power I can't see it not being the dominant power at least in N Germany. Also probably in the south as well as linguistical nationalism grew unless Austria really undergoes a massive modernisation which seems very unlikely given their restrictions.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 20, 2019 6:43:16 GMT
So what if the French mange to win the Franco-Prussian war of 1870, how will the future of a none-unified Germany look and what will the effect be of a victorious French Empire. Francoprussianwar.comNo Great Depression of 1873, due to the French not changing to the Gold Standard. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 21, 2019 15:27:55 GMT
So what if the French mange to win the Franco-Prussian war of 1870, how will the future of a none-unified Germany look and what will the effect be of a victorious French Empire. Francoprussianwar.comNo Great Depression of 1873, due to the French not changing to the Gold Standard.
The Wiki entry on it Long_Depression, gives a number of arguments but the main one seems to be the fact the US changed to the gold standard. The only mention it made for France other than that it wasn't initially affected by the initial price slump was that the defeat by Prussia/Germany and the huge reparations demanded by Germany has been argued as a possible cause by some sources. Other than that possibly I'm not sure that a different ending to the Franco-Prussian war, especially if it was a fairly quick French win rather than the more extended OTL German victory, would have any effect to prevent such a world-wide event. |
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Post by EwellHolmes on Oct 23, 2019 16:16:22 GMT
No Great Depression of 1873, due to the French not changing to the Gold Standard.
The Wiki entry on it Long_Depression, gives a number of arguments but the main one seems to be the fact the US changed to the gold standard. The only mention it made for France other than that it wasn't initially affected by the initial price slump was that the defeat by Prussia/Germany and the huge reparations demanded by Germany has been argued as a possible cause by some sources. Other than that possibly I'm not sure that a different ending to the Franco-Prussian war, especially if it was a fairly quick French win rather than the more extended OTL German victory, would have any effect to prevent such a world-wide event. Marc Flandreau's "The French Crime of 1873: An Essay on the Emergence of the International Gold Standard", Journal of Economic History, Vol. 56, No. 4 (Dec. 1996) argues that it was the French that engendered it more than the United States: |
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jjohnson
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Post by jjohnson on Nov 10, 2019 0:01:42 GMT
So what if the French mange to win the Franco-Prussian war of 1870, how will the future of a none-unified Germany look and what will the effect be of a victorious French Empire. Francoprussianwar.comIf the French won, I don't know if it would prevent German unification, but it could certainly delay it. There'd be no German colonies, most likely. For at least twenty or more years there'd be Prussia, Bavaria, Baden, and Württemberg plus a few minor states, with Prussia being the largest part of the North German Confederation. Maybe, slightly, they'd have some small islands or something in the Caribbean or Pacific they purchase off some people, but very likely not much of anything in Africa...maybe Namibia at best. It could ripple forward that France could cause the first world war in fear of a German unification movement, or, without a unification, Wilhelm II doesn't become Kaiser or doesn't cause two Moroccan crises to alienate the NGC internationally. If something like that happens, maybe we could see the French move in to Baden and Württemberg when they side with Austria over Franz Ferdinand's assassination, which spurs Bavaria and the NGC to ally against France, and bringing in the UK, then other nations. In that situation I don't think the US would be drawn in to a European war, which would end it maybe a year or so sooner. In such a case, we could see a neutral US acting as a host to a European peace conference, and that causing German unification with Alsace-Lorraine moving to this new German nation, which keeps its monarchy for a good while. If you had the time or inclination, definitely write up a timeline on this. It could be fun! |
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