melanie
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Post by melanie on May 3, 2022 15:29:05 GMT
As the American hostages are landing safely in the Bonn Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini suffers a severe stroke (he will die a few days later). How do the eighties in Iran, the Middle East, and the wider world, go without him? |
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Post by Max Sinister on May 11, 2022 20:28:35 GMT
Saddam Hussein will still start the First Gulf War, me thinks.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 12, 2022 14:19:06 GMT
Saddam Hussein will still start the First Gulf War, me thinks.
Probably as he will still see Iran as a potential threat, given his own Shia population and also as an isolated and weakened state, especially if its further hit by a successor crisis. Also he hopes to seize the oil rich region of the SW which also has a significant Arabic population.
There is the possibility that with the timing - i.e. just as the hostages land in the US - would be seen by some of the total fanatics as a punishment on Khomeini by Allah for allowing them to leave. In which case you will have a faction that will be even more xenophobic and intolerant of anything but their own view of Shia Islam. Going to be even worse in Iran if people like that gained power.
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 6, 2022 2:37:23 GMT
Khomeini, Khamenei, let's call the whole thing off
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jul 25, 2022 20:09:58 GMT
Saddam Hussein will still start the First Gulf War, me thinks. It appears an Iran-Iraq War is still inevitable then? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 26, 2022 14:39:04 GMT
Saddam Hussein will still start the First Gulf War, me thinks. It appears an Iran-Iraq War is still inevitable then?
Well if Iran under Khomeini's successor is still seen as a rogue state, coupled with internal division then I think Hussein will assume a quick victory, especially in gaining control of the main oil producing region of Iran, which would further boost his economic might and prestige and significantly weaken Iran as a rival. Assuming that Iranian nationalism enables a mobilization of their greater resources then this is still going to be a long and bloody slog by both sides.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jul 26, 2022 15:41:38 GMT
It appears an Iran-Iraq War is still inevitable then?
Well if Iran under Khomeini's successor is still seen as a rogue state, coupled with internal division then I think Hussein will assume a quick victory, especially in gaining control of the main oil producing region of Iran, which would further boost his economic might and prestige and significantly weaken Iran as a rival. Assuming that Iranian nationalism enables a mobilization of their greater resources then this is still going to be a long and bloody slog by both sides.
Saddam would use chemical weapons while Iran would conscript children. It would be like WWI all over again. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 26, 2022 15:42:06 GMT
Well if Iran under Khomeini's successor is still seen as a rogue state, coupled with internal division then I think Hussein will assume a quick victory, especially in gaining control of the main oil producing region of Iran, which would further boost his economic might and prestige and significantly weaken Iran as a rival. Assuming that Iranian nationalism enables a mobilization of their greater resources then this is still going to be a long and bloody slog by both sides.
Saddam would use chemical weapons while Iran would conscript children. It would be like WWI all over again. Did they not do that already in OTL. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jul 26, 2022 16:07:43 GMT
Saddam would use chemical weapons while Iran would conscript children. It would be like WWI all over again. Did they not do that already in OTL. It is what happened in OTL. Who knows who would be Khomeini's successor would be worse off. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 26, 2022 16:12:05 GMT
Did they not do that already in OTL. It is what happened in OTL. Who knows who would be Khomeini's successor would be worse off. This man, Hussein-Ali Montazeri was until 1989, the political successor of Ayatollah Khomeini until he was dismissed with the job given to Ali Khamenei. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jul 26, 2022 16:22:20 GMT
It is what happened in OTL. Who knows who would be Khomeini's successor would be worse off. This man, Hussein-Ali Montazeri was until 1989, the political successor of Ayatollah Khomeini until he was dismissed with the job given to Ali Khamenei. Montazeri would have continued the war. Probably it might drag on into the 1990s, thereby butterflying the Gulf War. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 26, 2022 16:24:03 GMT
It is what happened in OTL. Who knows who would be Khomeini's successor would be worse off. This man, Hussein-Ali Montazeri was until 1989, the political successor of Ayatollah Khomeini until he was dismissed with the job given to Ali Khamenei.
Now he would have been an interesting option and by the sound of it a much better one for Iran. You might see a resurgence of a genuine at least semi-democratic system and much less suppression of any ideas or people who disagree with the extreme elements of the clergy. It would of course depend on how easily he's able to secure power as he would have a lot of enemies in the regime and possibly how hostile the US continues to be.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 26, 2022 16:27:20 GMT
This man, Hussein-Ali Montazeri was until 1989, the political successor of Ayatollah Khomeini until he was dismissed with the job given to Ali Khamenei. Montazeri would have continued the war. Probably it might drag on into the 1990s, thereby butterflying the Gulf War. As far as i can read he would most likely try to end it as soon as he could. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 26, 2022 16:28:04 GMT
This man, Hussein-Ali Montazeri was until 1989, the political successor of Ayatollah Khomeini until he was dismissed with the job given to Ali Khamenei. Montazeri would have continued the war. Probably it might drag on into the 1990s, thereby butterflying the Gulf War.
He would definitely fight, given the situation he would have to. However why do you think he would continue the war longer than Khomeini did. I always remember he used the phase that signing the peace agreement with Iraq was 'like drinking poison'. Because the failure to displace Hussein was more important to him than the horrendous losses Iran took in the latter stages of the conflict.
I suspect its more likely that assuming the Iraqis are withstood and the pushed out of Iran Montazeri would have made peace earlier simply because Iran would be better off without the costs, human, economic, diplomatic etc of continuing the war in the search for a victory that is likely to prove futile given the support Iraq was being given by just about everybody else.
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