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Post by Max Sinister on Mar 22, 2023 19:56:09 GMT
Partly true - OTOH he deliberately exaggerated the bad state of Spain. Yes, there was the Maquis resistance movement. No idea though how Britain might support them. TTL has the BEF lost at Dunkirk, so they won't be able to make an invasion soon, and Canaris can't pretend this hadn't happened. The Canaries OTOH might be a problem. The blockade even more, unless they can get food from the Soviet Union. I'll have to think about it. After I've read several Canaris books, I might check out scientific papers next. |
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Mar 23, 2023 16:45:57 GMT
Partly true - OTOH he deliberately exaggerated the bad state of Spain. Yes, there was the Maquis resistance movement. No idea though how Britain might support them. TTL has the BEF lost at Dunkirk, so they won't be able to make an invasion soon, and Canaris can't pretend this hadn't happened.
The Canaries OTOH might be a problem. The blockade even more, unless they can get food from the Soviet Union. I'll have to think about it. After I've read several Canaris books, I might check out scientific papers next.
On this point Churchill was very quick to start aiding resistance movements under fascist occupied areas. Equipment would be an issue and also supplying such but Spain should be fairly easy for say small boats coming ashore. Possibly also air drops although it does have the problem of being further from the UK than N France or Belgium say.
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Post by Max Sinister on Mar 25, 2023 19:57:43 GMT
Partly true - OTOH he deliberately exaggerated the bad state of Spain. Yes, there was the Maquis resistance movement. No idea though how Britain might support them. TTL has the BEF lost at Dunkirk, so they won't be able to make an invasion soon, and Canaris can't pretend this hadn't happened.
The Canaries OTOH might be a problem. The blockade even more, unless they can get food from the Soviet Union. I'll have to think about it. After I've read several Canaris books, I might check out scientific papers next.
On this point Churchill was very quick to start aiding resistance movements under fascist occupied areas. Equipment would be an issue and also supplying such but Spain should be fairly easy for say small boats coming ashore. Possibly also air drops although it does have the problem of being further from the UK than N France or Belgium say.
Yes, the distance would be a big problem. Like for British bombers going to Berlin. American "Flying Fortresses" would be a different thing.
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Post by Max Sinister on Apr 5, 2023 18:31:45 GMT
Still thinking about Canaris. This is tricky because espionage is done rarely in ATLs (beyond something simple like "Stalin believes Sorge" or "Sorge is uncovered"), and I don't write spy novels as a day job.
I don't want to go the easy way, I actually want to describe the details. Just as I did for TTL's battle of Dunkirk.
And Canaris was a master spy (in fact, better than at organizing a big bureaucratic espionage apparatus, even if you ignore that he wanted to sabotage the Reich as much as possible without being discovered). So we shouldn't expect that he'd make a stupid mistake like shouting "Oh no!" in front of witnesses when the Reich has won a big victory, e.g. the battle of Dunkirk. Even other high Nazis like Himmler had respect for him and what he did.
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Post by Max Sinister on Apr 16, 2023 3:53:13 GMT
This time a few ideas I won't use in this TL, for various reasons.
* I had considered using singer France Gall as one of those women who'll fall for a dashing Wehrmacht or SS officer, get "Aryanized" officially, marry him, and move to the East. But since she was conceived and born after the PoD, this wouldn't make sense. So she's out. You'll still get Brigitte Bardot doing this. (Fits even better.)
* After the death of Adolf Nazi, (SPOILER!) Goebbels won't be propaganda minister anymore. Some replacement will be needed. I had considered making Leni Riefenstahl the first female Nazi minister... but apparently, she was disliked by a certain other high nazi. So I had to scrap this idea.
* I also thought about alternate Stones songs, with lines like "I met a rum-soaked bar-room queen in Tampa" - but since all of them were conceived after May 1940, this idea was out too.
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Post by Max Sinister on May 27, 2023 23:51:31 GMT
Back to Canaris, Oster and co.
IOTL, both Heydrich/Schellenberg and Canaris had been ordered by the "führer" to find out who had given the Allies infos about the attack in the west. Dutch military attache Bert Sas had left Berlin on 20th/21st May, together with other Dutch diplomats, to go to Switzerland, so there's no danger he can be used as a source. (Oster had been seen with him, though - and he often had visited Sas' apartment in Berlin.) In OTL, Canaris was able to keep the situation under control, so Oster just had to cut ties with Josef "Ochsensepp/Joe the Ox" Müller.
This happened in a quite complicated way: Canaris ordered Müller, of all people, to research the case in Rome. A co-worker of Müller gave him an alibi, making the track the SD was on worthless. At the same time, Canaris ordered a lieutenant-colonel Joachim Rohleder (Abwehr III F) to research the case - had to do something as well. Now Rohleder found out that there was something about Müller. Fortunately, he considered Oster to be incompetent, not a traitor. Canaris ordered Rohleder to shut up about the case - which he did.
Furthermore, there was a woman named Kaete Pruck, who had learned from her husband (Abwehr I agent Erich Ferdinand who had spied in Norway) that there were various people working against the "führer" - a Sturmbannführer Hofmann, but also Oster, Dohnanyi, and "Ochsensepp". Fortunately, she told none other than Canaris. He had her sent into an asylum for the insane. Fortunately for her, a Gestapo man named Hugo Franz Hoffmann who researched her case saw she wasn't mad, so she was released. Then again, he was no Nazi (yes, despite being a Gestapo guy), so he didn't dig deeper into the case.
After thinking about this for a good time, I'd say that I'll work with this. Let's say, Hoffmann is on holidays, because of butterflies (Battle of Dunkirk!), so some Nazi co-worker (let's call him N.N.) will research the case instead.
Result: In June/early July, Oster, Dohnanyi, and "Ochsensepp" are arrested or at the very least put under house arrest. After being allowed to speak when ordered to ignore Canaris' order, Rohleder also reveals what he knows. The "führer" is angry about one of Canaris' most important men being a suspect and makes poor Canaris suffer his screaming. Maybe for hours. He suffers a nervous breakdown (happened in OTL after the bombing of Belgrade), is a broken man (in OTL, since 1942). Heydrich uses the situation to force him to give him parts of the Abwehr's responsibilities (as in OTL's "Prague convention" from May 1942).
Important for the war: When Canaris is sent to Spain in late July, this time some SS/SD "guard dog" and some interpreter - Canaris speaks fluent Spanish - will watch that he doesn't do anything suspicious. That's why neither Franco nor Petain will learn that both of them would prefer to do as little which helps the "führer" as possible. Leading in the long run to Spain cooperating re: Gibraltar and the Wehrmacht being allowed to send troops to French North Africa.
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Post by Max Sinister on May 30, 2023 23:37:04 GMT
OK, I forgot to mention an important detail.
The Intelligence Service had had plans to sabotage the oil wells in Romania - Nazi Germany's most important source. Thanks to the Abwehr, this plan was prevented. Meaning: The "Brandenburgers" were sent there, and all the Brits in Romania kicked out. If I'm not mistaken, this happened in early July '40. From then on, oil fields were overseen by Germans.
Since I'm really not sure whether a big Abwehr affair would hamper this, I decided that any big affair would have to happen after this.
Last but not least: Since the "führer" still had a high opinion of Canaris in mid-1940, which isn't going to change that fast, the SD will claim that they'll be needed to "protect" Canaris in Spain. Since his organisation had dangerous people like Oster in its command center...
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 1, 2023 4:36:26 GMT
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 2, 2023 23:40:55 GMT
Thinking a bit ahead: Barbarossa will start ITTL too, but ten days earlier. Maybe two weeks. Unfortunately I couldn't find out when exactly the rasputitsa ended in 1941. Theoretically butterflies might end it even earlier (in OTL, it ended later than usual for Russia), but I don't want the Nazis to have more good luck than necessary.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 7, 2023 5:14:56 GMT
And now for something completely different: Do you like election results? If yes, you may like this.
US elections of 1940:
(Explanation: Because of the battle of Dunkirk, which the Nazis have won, and some smaller successes of the Italians before the election, a small percentage of USAsians will be concerned and rather vote for FDR.)
More than 50 millions voted - a new record. Roosevelt got 27.5 million, Willkie 22.3 millions. In percentages: 54.9% to 44.6%. The closest race was in Michigan, the candidates having a difference of less than 1%. Hence, Roosevelt won 468 electors, Willkie just 63. Making it the highest victory since 1820, not counting FDR's earlier victories.
Senate: No relevant changes compared to OTL.
House: The Democrats won three seats more: Illinois 19, Illinois 25, and one of the two in Illinois at-large. Giving us a result of 270 : 159.
Governors: In Kansas, incumbent Payne Ratner (R) loses closely against William H. Burke. In Missouri, Larry McDaniel (D) beats Forrest C. Donnell, becomng the 40th governor of the state. All other races are as in OTL.
US elections of 1942:
(Currently I'm still working on the second half of 1940, but I've been thinking ahead. But there isn't everything fixed yet.)
Senate: Democrats lose their two-thirds majority. The Republicans even got more votes.
House: Here, the Republicans got more votes than their competition too, and won several dozen seats. The gap between them is/will be 24 seats.
Governors: Republicans flip some.
US elections of 1944:
Primaries: FDR is naturally nominated again, there's still a war to make. The Dems are discontent with his VP Wallace, though.
The Republicans have many candidates to choose from. Only Taft gave up, thinking it's impossible to defeat FDR. MacArthur's out too, he's got to lead the fight in the Pacific theater.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 10, 2023 1:43:16 GMT
Another addition to the "Schwarze Kapelle" affair: In the future of TTL, maybe after Canaris himself will have fallen, the Nazis should decide to ramp up Enigma security. You know what that means.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 10, 2023 6:19:38 GMT
Thinking about the Quit India movement: Given that Britain has lost the BEF, they depend even more on Indian (and others') help. Hence, Gandhi may make his famous statement („a post dated cheque on a failing bank“) about the British offer even earlier, still in 1940. This is getting interesting. I do expect though that for the moment, not too much will change. Gandhi and Nehru will call for nonviolent resistance, therefore be arrested earlier, but the Muslims, princes, and industrialists will still not support "Quit India".
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 15, 2023 6:35:02 GMT
Thinking about the Quit India movement: Given that Britain has lost the BEF, they depend even more on Indian (and others') help. Hence, Gandhi may make his famous statement („a post dated cheque on a failing bank“) about the British offer even earlier, still in 1940. This is getting interesting. I do expect though that for the moment, not too much will change. Gandhi and Nehru will call for nonviolent resistance, therefore be arrested earlier, but the Muslims, princes, and industrialists will still not support "Quit India". Something like that would probably happen in other TLs where the Nazis defeat the BEF as well: The Empire receives a blow, so its enemies will be encouraged, which creates additional problems... until we enter a new equilibrium.
Of course, the Brits have several strategies to deal with such a defeat: Raise new but inexperienced troops, move troops from the colonies to the mother country (which makes the former more vulnerable), fight a war with badly trained troops... depending on which strategy they decide for, there are several different imaginable TLs, even if only detals will differ for now.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jun 15, 2023 11:02:15 GMT
Currently working on the war with Greece. I've decided to start it on the same day, with the Greeks doing a bit better this time (butterflies), despite getting somewhat less support from Britain, which is in a difficult situation after all. At the same time, the battle of Taranto makes the "Duce" look pretty bad. In OTL, he was close to ask the Germans to negotiate an armistice. Let's say, ITTL he does it, since things are worse. Now the "führer" had the flaw of not letting his few real allies down, so he's not going to do that. Would make his ally look too bad. OTOH, he'll demand something in return. Why not more cooperation re: Malta?
(That's a problem in general: You may start with a PoD or butterfly that strengthens side X - but this defeat makes side Y decide it's time to do something, and at the end Y manages to turn the tide, so side X is actually worse off. - Unless side Y is at the end of their rope, of course.)
Since the Empire has to defend too many places with too few men (Dunkirk!), an equivalent of Operation Compass won't happen in 1940 yet. Neither will the Empire be able to send strong forces to Greece. Ships, airplanes and weapons, OK.
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miletus12
Squadron vice admiral
To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 15, 2023 11:45:35 GMT
[tr][td class="content"][article] Yes, the distance would be a big problem. Like for British bombers going to Berlin. American "Flying Fortresses" would be a different thing.
 The aircraft characteristics.\  It is about 950 kilometers to Berlin from the Lakenheath air complex with a 1.5 ton bomb / cargo load. Figure about 1,100 kilometers with a 1 ton bomb / cargo load.from the Bristol complexes to northern Spain. Use a Liberator. |
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