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Post by Max Sinister on Jan 19, 2023 2:22:39 GMT
'k, I think I've worked out the aftermath of Dunkirk, so it's time to think about the second Six. Originally I had something else in mind, but now I think the next step might be: The conquest of Malta. Now the question will be: Why? It doesn't exactly have high priority. Italy's more interested in Egypt and maybe Greece, and the Nazis are still busy with (non-workable, of course) Sea Lion and the subsequent Battle of Britain. But now we have several possible side effects of the loss of the BEF at Dunkirk: - No 830 Naval Air Squadron in Malta, because the Home Islands seem so endangered they rather go there. - Italo Balbo survives, because of butterflies (Unless you think he was killed because he correctly predicted that after an Axis victory, all Italians up to the "Duce" would shine German boots, and said so. But then, except for Mussolini, nobody in Italy really wanted the war. Even if few were as outspoken as Balbo.) - Balbo is a good friend of Göring. They're both fliers, y'know. - Göring wasn't particularly useful at Dunkirk (as usual), but at least didn't obviously screw things up. So he has better standing with the "führer". - OTOH, said "führer" is especially angry because the BEF was destroyed, but Sea Lion still isn't possible!- Since fewer British troops are around in Africa (needed at the Home Islands), the Italians advance everywhere - seemingly slow but steady. Advancing up to Sidi Barrani in Egypt and such. Lacking troops, the Brits don't try a counter-attack. Leading to a summer with repeated Italian victories - but no real German ones. - The angry "führer" wants another victory for Germany - and Malta is the closest British territory that might be actually conquerable. Because negotiations with Franco about Gibraltar aren't easy, we know. - As in OTL, vice admiral Eberhard Weichold tries to pique the Italian interest about Malta since August. (If not earlier, again thanks to butterflies.) - Buddies Göring and Balbo help with negotiations. - Nazi Germany and Italy agree to attack the island with forces of both; while both claim in their propaganda just to help the other side; and also agree to peruse the islands together, after the conquest, even if they'll be incorporated into Italy. - Canaris exaggerates the British strength of Malta to scare the Wehrmacht from attacking - which backfires, since they now attack with overwhelming force. - Oh, and since "Operation Hercules" was in OTL planned in 1942, a different name will be needed. Just for fun/confusion, I'll choose: {Spoiler}Operation Mercury . - My time plan for the ATL: On September 21st, the conquest of Malta will be decided. After November 4th, the first Axis troops will set foot on the islands. On November 20th, the crown colony will have fallen. Further consequences: The battle of Tarent might look different, if it will happen at all; German paratroopers won't be decimated, and even have gained valuable experience. If they'll have to fight on Crete later (could well be), this will be to their advantage, How realistic is this in your opinion? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 19, 2023 12:22:22 GMT
'k, I think I've worked out the aftermath of Dunkirk, so it's time to think about the second Six. Originally I had something else in mind, but now I think the next step might be: The conquest of Malta. Now the question will be: Why? It doesn't exactly have high priority. Italy's more interested in Egypt and maybe Greece, and the Nazis are still busy with (non-workable, of course) Sea Lion and the subsequent Battle of Britain. But now we have several possible side effects of the loss of the BEF at Dunkirk: - No 830 Naval Air Squadron in Malta, because the Home Islands seem so endangered they rather go there. - Italo Balbo survives, because of butterflies (Unless you think he was killed because he correctly predicted that after an Axis victory, all Italians up to the "Duce" would shine German boots, and said so. But then, except for Mussolini, nobody in Italy really wanted the war. Even if few were as outspoken as Balbo.) - Balbo is a good friend of Göring. They're both fliers, y'know. - Göring wasn't particularly useful at Dunkirk (as usual), but at least didn't obviously screw things up. So he has better standing with the "führer". - OTOH, said "führer" is especially angry because the BEF was destroyed, but Sea Lion still isn't possible!- Since fewer British troops are around in Africa (needed at the Home Islands), the Italians advance everywhere - seemingly slow but steady. Advancing up to Sidi Barrani in Egypt and such. Lacking troops, the Brits don't try a counter-attack. Leading to a summer with repeated Italian victories - but no real German ones. - The angry "führer" wants another victory for Germany - and Malta is the closest British territory that might be actually conquerable. Because negotiations with Franco about Gibraltar aren't easy, we know. - As in OTL, vice admiral Eberhard Weichold tries to pique the Italian interest about Malta since August. (If not earlier, again thanks to butterflies.) - Buddies Göring and Balbo help with negotiations. - Nazi Germany and Italy agree to attack the island with forces of both; while both claim in their propaganda just to help the other side; and also agree to peruse the islands together, after the conquest, even if they'll be incorporated into Italy. - Canaris exaggerates the British strength of Malta to scare the Wehrmacht from attacking - which backfires, since they now attack with overwhelming force. - Oh, and since "Operation Hercules" was in OTL planned in 1942, a different name will be needed. Just for fun/confusion, I'll choose: {Spoiler}Operation Mercury . - My time plan for the ATL: On September 21st, the conquest of Malta will be decided. After November 4th, the first Axis troops will set foot on the islands. On November 20th, the crown colony will have fallen. Further consequences: The battle of Tarent might look different, if it will happen at all; German paratroopers won't be decimated, and even have gained valuable experience. If they'll have to fight on Crete later (could well be), this will be to their advantage, How realistic is this in your opinion?
Well its possible although the Italians were limited in N Africa more by logistics than British presence so I don't see that changing. Its unlikely that forces would be withdrawn from N Africa simply because it would take too long. However the OTL reinforcement from Britain, especially of armour on a risky run through the Med is unlikely to occur. As such I would expect Italian forces to go no further forward than OTL simply because they can't without running out of food/water.
Possibly more likely is that because the British position is worst they don't send equipment to Greece. Which won't make a big difference initially but could do later on. However I would say the best trigger for an attack on Malta might be that the Taranto still goes ahead - as it was planned as an option pre-war and Mussolini feels he must 'do something' - just as the Midway Battle was partly triggered by the Dolittle raid in 1942.
The paras will probably still take some losses if their the leading forces. Apart from anything else Malta is fairly rocky and quite small so its likely a fair number would be landing outside the tight landing zones and hence suffer losses simply from that or from being isolated from weapons. Probably less devastating that on Crete but still some casualties, although its likely any air-landed troops following on will be a lot better off than they were at Crete OTL.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jan 21, 2023 19:34:05 GMT
stevep : Yes, pretty much. Defending forces would be weaker than at Crete (which is very mountainous too, after all). Taranto is likely, also because the Japanese will still need an inspiration for Pearl Harbor, because I'm not willing to do without that.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jan 22, 2023 2:16:24 GMT
The tricky thing, here as in OTL, is of course: Italy wants Malta, and Musso wants to take it with Italian soldiers. And ITTL he hasn't really suffered bad defeats yet.
So why should he ask for help? And the "Führer" is thinking about "Lebensraum" in the East, not a Mediterranean strategy.
Also: Malta helped the Allied somewhat to make logistics for Northern Africa harder - but not that much. The fact that the Axis didn't have many good harbors also mattered. So it doesn't have highest priority - which explains why they didn't take it in OTL.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 22, 2023 18:16:41 GMT
The tricky thing, here as in OTL, is of course: Italy wants Malta, and Musso wants to take it with Italian soldiers. And ITTL he hasn't really suffered bad defeats yet. So why should he ask for help? And the "Führer" is thinking about "Lebensraum" in the East, not a Mediterranean strategy. Also: Malta helped the Allied somewhat to make logistics for Northern Africa harder - but not that much. The fact that the Axis didn't have many good harbors also mattered. So it doesn't have highest priority - which explains why they didn't take it in OTL.
Given the weakness of the defence at the time, possibly worsened by the greater crisis in the UK could it be an Italian operation with minimal German support as 'revenge' for the Taranto attack. You could see the Germans - since the daytime BoB is over by this time supporting with a lot of air support.
Would agree that some sources suggest the importance of Malta in impeding Axis operations in N Africa could be overstated. Also its early loss could actually help Britain as it was so costly continuing to supply it with heavy losses in convoys involved and also the escorting warships.
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Post by Max Sinister on Jan 26, 2023 2:18:39 GMT
Yeah, definitely. But I'll have to think about the Malta bit. And other stuff. Something else: On the wiki I built a navigation box today. Admittedly I've made many articles in the past, but so far most of them are stubs, TBH. The better ones are linked from said box. See: link |
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Post by Max Sinister on Feb 2, 2023 2:05:45 GMT
Thinking about Malta, I wondered whether it'd be possible for the Germans to have a Marines unit (or a bigger one they had, anyway), for an attack aimed at Malta.
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Post by Max Sinister on Feb 5, 2023 6:57:24 GMT
Earlier I said that I don't want the Axis powers to have more luck than necessary. Since the logistics of the North African harbors they had were more important than what they might have gained from taking Malta, they don't have to do Hercules successfully ITTL. If they can successfully starve it (might have been the case if they hadn't had to fight a big war in the East), or Britain has to cede it in a peace treaty, that's also fine for me.
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Post by Max Sinister on Feb 11, 2023 22:00:34 GMT
Still wondering how to advance the war. Theoretically Malta or some other important (additional) PoD might happen any time, but I haven't decided yet.
OTOH, I've got literally hundreds of ideas for the post-war world. That's why it's so annoying that I'm blocked and can't continue the TL right now.
Would you like to hear the one or other idea for the future of TTL?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 12, 2023 9:21:21 GMT
Would you like to hear the one or other idea for the future of TTL? Go for the once that not many TLs make, makes it more interesting. |
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Post by Max Sinister on Feb 17, 2023 0:52:08 GMT
Would you like to hear the one or other idea for the future of TTL? Go for the once that not many TLs make, makes it more interesting.
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Post by Max Sinister on Feb 26, 2023 8:36:16 GMT
I do think that a discovery that Canaris was trying to double-cross the Nazi Reich would help them, esp. re: Spain/Gibraltar and possibly Enigma too. Hence, a good candidate for the second Six.
The question would be how. IRL it happened via Frau Solf's tea party, which somehow doesn't make a good story. But if not in such a way - then how?
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Post by Max Sinister on Mar 16, 2023 3:26:12 GMT
After reading some Canaris books, I've found a possible hook: An Erich Ferdinand Pruck who worked in the Abwehr talked a bit too much to his wife Kaete (around June 1940). In OTL, she wrote a letter, accusing Hans Oster, von Dohnanyi, and Josef "Ochsensepp" Müller of doing suspicious things. Fortunately, she sent it to - Canaris. Who made sure that she was arrested for being possibly mad. Unfortunately, the responsible Gestapo man (a Hugo Franz Hoffmann) saw that she wasn't actually crazy and became suspicious. Fortunately, he was no convinced nazi (yes, despite of being a Gestapo man) and didn't do anything against Canaris. Result: Oster broke with Müller, and that was all.
But what if things had developed differently? Some other Gestapo man taking the case might be a real possibility. Butterflies could be the reason, since the PoD is a bit before that. And the personalities of the Prucks won't change that much.
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Post by Max Sinister on Mar 18, 2023 22:17:12 GMT
A few more thoughts: Thanks to Canaris, Franco and Petain weren't just encouraged to resist the "führer" as well as they could, but also informed of the best way to do so. And he also informed them that the respective other one would do that - which they weren't supposed to know, if the "führer" had had a say about that.
The optimal solution for the Reich would be if they could force Canaris to put his experience to good use for the Reich. But since he detested the Nazis' methods (despite being patriotic and anti-Communist), didn't want Spain to be drawn into the war, and was generally more of an intellectual, cosmopolitic guy, the chance of this happening is literally zero.
So it seems it'd be optimal for the Reich if they got rid of Canaris soon enough to conquer Gibraltar. They'll probably have to twist Franco's arm, but they are the kind of people who'd do this after all. Now Canaris was also responsible for doing desinformation before Barbarossa, which he seems to have done pretty well. Then again, bastard Stalin only believed what he wanted to believe, so even if the other Nazis screwed this up, he'd be none the wiser at the end.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Mar 19, 2023 12:45:35 GMT
A few more thoughts: Thanks to Canaris, Franco and Petain weren't just encouraged to resist the "führer" as well as they could, but also informed of the best way to do so. And he also informed them that the respective other one would do that - which they weren't supposed to know, if the "führer" had had a say about that. The optimal solution for the Reich would be if they could force Canaris to put his experience to good use for the Reich. But since he detested the Nazis' methods (despite being patriotic and anti-Communist), didn't want Spain to be drawn into the war, and was generally more of an intellectual, cosmopolitic guy, the chance of this happening is literally zero. So it seems it'd be optimal for the Reich if they got rid of Canaris soon enough to conquer Gibraltar. They'll probably have to twist Franco's arm, but they are the kind of people who'd do this after all. Now Canaris was also responsile for doing desinformation before Barbarossa, which he seems to have done pretty well. Then again, bastard Stalin only believed what he wanted to believe, so even if the other Nazis screwed this up, he'd be none the wiser at the end.
There will be costs as well as benefits for the Nazis in forcing Spain into the war. Franco was opposed OTL because he knew how dire the state of the country. Britain will lose Gib, albeit after a siege but there were plans to capture the Canaries which could be a counter factor in enabling ASW warfare although subs based in Spain would further expand their reach. Also the Germans now have the problem of feeding Spain since it will now be blockaded. Furthermore I can see aid being sent to remaining republicans to stir up resistance against the fascists. Overall however the Germans will see it as a boost to their position and it could well force the surrender of Malta as well.
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