Post by 575 on Feb 23, 2022 13:16:14 GMT
Borgen – Greenland oil WI
Ilulissat is at the top point of the oval.
The find is now though OTL prospecting for oil in Greenland ended 2014 and was closed down 2021.
Originally prospecting was to be done off-shore 2004 during the days of huge consumption and sales which led to shale-oil prospecting in the US 2005 and which peaked when recession set in 2009.
By 2022 oilprices were rising so a good time to bring into narrative new prospecting in Greenland.
Seen in a historical perspective the time of hitting bonanza in Greenland could be either 2004/5 right after prospecting begins or perhaps as narrated now in 2022 with rising oilprices and economic inflation or rather on a field prospecting beginning during 2021 before closing down but allowed to carry on and then become the vehicle of Greenland deciding its future.
A number of questions arise from the finding; if Greenland goes independent what happens to the USA-Denmark Military Bases agreement of WWII? What will the US offer Greenland to be able to maintain the bases?
Greenland may decide to see how much may be offered by playing Russia and the US against each other with China also in the mix as it was on prospecting for metals and vying for the build and running of oreextracting industry. Of course with Russia annexing Ukraine territory that would be out as a player - how would Greenland protect itself from such fate if playing with the Devil!
How about the EU could that become a player – Denmark would like this if it doesn't get to retain Greenland within its Commonwealth which then really would be gone and Greenland possibly orient itself towards the Americas as is already the case in sports.
Even if Greenland go for independence it might go for some kind of continued bond with Denmark if only because Denmark would be able to deliver the military needed which Greenland doesn't have the means to conjure up itself without the tradition.
Another state skeleton is administration which is still in its infancy and diplomacy even more so where Denmark have more than a thoudsend years experience in both as well as military.
The finding of oil would be the economic boost Greenland wants; in the TV-series its estimated an oilfield producing 100,000,000 barrels a year with an estimated 2022 value of 334 trillion dollars total.
If Greenland remain within the Danish Commonwealth Denmark would cut off the yearly payment to Greenland of 0,65 bill. dollars which would make Greenland fund its yearly budget of 2,1 bill. dollars by itself. Which would still leave the Greenlanders with almost 2 bill. dollars annually for shits and giggles.
Though still Greenland would need to build itself into a modern state which it populace just isn't prepared for – yet.
What would Greenland need for defences?
Denmark fields 4 large – Frigate size – Fishery Inspection Ship which dub as ASW ships each with a helicopter. These also have to serve the Faeroe Is. In addition Denmark field another two smaller Fishery Inspection Ships for Greenland with landing craft.
Denmark also field an airgroup of usually a C-130 Transport aircraft a Challenger surveillance aircraft in Greenland but is to upgrade this.
Denmark also field the Sirius Sleigh Patrol which patrol Northeast Greenland for foreign incursion and maintain a national presence so Denmark may maintain its claim to the area.
Greenland would need at least 3 large - Frigate size – Fishery Inspection Ship which might dub as ASW ships each with a helicopter. The ASW capability may be deemed unnecessary. It may also want to continue with two smaller inspection ships.
The Inspection Ships may be of slightly different design with the absence of ASW capability but also because of recent natural disasters in Greenland with accomodation for passengers and with some landing craft aboard. The Danish ships have a crew of 61 and accomodation for another 12 the Greenland ships might have a sligtly larger crew and more accomodation and with another weapons suite.
The smaller Inspection Ships have a crew of 18 with accomdation of another 25. Such ships would serve Greenland well though perhaps Greenland would like to have room for a smaller helicopter on each like a Bell UH-1.
However with the possibility of prospeting at sea and year round service of oilers in Disco Bay Greenland will also need service these with Icebreakers not around today. That would make for at least two to add to the small Navy each also with a helo.
These would be able to dub as SAR units off the ice season.
Which leads to helicopters which will maintain SAR duties. Experience have shown that a large helicopter the size about a S-61 is desired as small parties have been recued by a single helo and that won't change due to the size of Greenlands. You can't count on another helo available to rescue larger parties. This was tried out 2017 when part of a mountain collapsed sending a tsunami at some small villages.
Greenland may need 5 helo's for the ships and at least another 2 in reserve making optimal a squadron of 7-8.
Denmark also field a small Airforce unit which supplies the Sirius Sleigh Patrol in North East Greenland as well as other installations up there and surveille sea ice and participate in SAR duties thus at least 1 C-130 unit and 1 Challenger unit is needed with reserves of at least one each makes for two of each type.
As tension is rising in the Arctic Greenland may well want some Surveillance/ASW aircraft optimally 3 of each.
Finally something like the Sirius Sleigh Patrol must be maintained in Northeast Greenland to claim sovreignty there.
That would make for some 25 troops in the area year round with a steady recruitment. This type of service is very much in line with traditional Inuit hunting way of life and would be easily most easily of all services formed and maintained.
Additionally a small reserve to form heavy support for Police but also to combat intrusions; possibly no more than 2-3 companies needed.
However the population base of Greenlands limited to 55,000. It will be difficult to maintain a force of some 250 for the Navy, 100 for the Airforce and some 300 for the Sleigh Patrol/Infantry.
650 may seem small for a nation of 55,000 but more than half will be specialists outside Inuit way of life and about half of these highly specialized aircrew which may even tax the ability to run the internal and external air-services!
The majority of the Infantry would have to be parttimers like a Homeguard beefed up with former Sleigh Patrol personnel.
Air Greenland runs a fleet of 1 Airbus 330-200, 7 DASH-8 and 1 King Air.
2 Airbus H225 Helo's, 8 Bell 212 and 9 AS350.
The Airbus H225 have a SAR obligation and the King Air is a flying ambulance.
Borgen Danish drama series of a woman elected Primeminister of Denmark and later Minister of Foreign Affairs in a coalition Government; in its latest iteration of February 2022 is about a find of a huge oilfield in Greenland at Ilulissat which is situated in Disco Bay close to the most producing glacier in the world.
Ilulissat is at the top point of the oval.Originally prospecting was to be done off-shore 2004 during the days of huge consumption and sales which led to shale-oil prospecting in the US 2005 and which peaked when recession set in 2009.
By 2022 oilprices were rising so a good time to bring into narrative new prospecting in Greenland.
Seen in a historical perspective the time of hitting bonanza in Greenland could be either 2004/5 right after prospecting begins or perhaps as narrated now in 2022 with rising oilprices and economic inflation or rather on a field prospecting beginning during 2021 before closing down but allowed to carry on and then become the vehicle of Greenland deciding its future.
A number of questions arise from the finding; if Greenland goes independent what happens to the USA-Denmark Military Bases agreement of WWII? What will the US offer Greenland to be able to maintain the bases?
Greenland may decide to see how much may be offered by playing Russia and the US against each other with China also in the mix as it was on prospecting for metals and vying for the build and running of oreextracting industry. Of course with Russia annexing Ukraine territory that would be out as a player - how would Greenland protect itself from such fate if playing with the Devil!
How about the EU could that become a player – Denmark would like this if it doesn't get to retain Greenland within its Commonwealth which then really would be gone and Greenland possibly orient itself towards the Americas as is already the case in sports.
Even if Greenland go for independence it might go for some kind of continued bond with Denmark if only because Denmark would be able to deliver the military needed which Greenland doesn't have the means to conjure up itself without the tradition.
Another state skeleton is administration which is still in its infancy and diplomacy even more so where Denmark have more than a thoudsend years experience in both as well as military.
The finding of oil would be the economic boost Greenland wants; in the TV-series its estimated an oilfield producing 100,000,000 barrels a year with an estimated 2022 value of 334 trillion dollars total.
If Greenland remain within the Danish Commonwealth Denmark would cut off the yearly payment to Greenland of 0,65 bill. dollars which would make Greenland fund its yearly budget of 2,1 bill. dollars by itself. Which would still leave the Greenlanders with almost 2 bill. dollars annually for shits and giggles.
Though still Greenland would need to build itself into a modern state which it populace just isn't prepared for – yet.
What would Greenland need for defences?
Denmark fields 4 large – Frigate size – Fishery Inspection Ship which dub as ASW ships each with a helicopter. These also have to serve the Faeroe Is. In addition Denmark field another two smaller Fishery Inspection Ships for Greenland with landing craft.
Denmark also field an airgroup of usually a C-130 Transport aircraft a Challenger surveillance aircraft in Greenland but is to upgrade this.
Denmark also field the Sirius Sleigh Patrol which patrol Northeast Greenland for foreign incursion and maintain a national presence so Denmark may maintain its claim to the area.
Greenland would need at least 3 large - Frigate size – Fishery Inspection Ship which might dub as ASW ships each with a helicopter. The ASW capability may be deemed unnecessary. It may also want to continue with two smaller inspection ships.
The Inspection Ships may be of slightly different design with the absence of ASW capability but also because of recent natural disasters in Greenland with accomodation for passengers and with some landing craft aboard. The Danish ships have a crew of 61 and accomodation for another 12 the Greenland ships might have a sligtly larger crew and more accomodation and with another weapons suite.
The smaller Inspection Ships have a crew of 18 with accomdation of another 25. Such ships would serve Greenland well though perhaps Greenland would like to have room for a smaller helicopter on each like a Bell UH-1.
However with the possibility of prospeting at sea and year round service of oilers in Disco Bay Greenland will also need service these with Icebreakers not around today. That would make for at least two to add to the small Navy each also with a helo.
These would be able to dub as SAR units off the ice season.
Which leads to helicopters which will maintain SAR duties. Experience have shown that a large helicopter the size about a S-61 is desired as small parties have been recued by a single helo and that won't change due to the size of Greenlands. You can't count on another helo available to rescue larger parties. This was tried out 2017 when part of a mountain collapsed sending a tsunami at some small villages.
Greenland may need 5 helo's for the ships and at least another 2 in reserve making optimal a squadron of 7-8.
Denmark also field a small Airforce unit which supplies the Sirius Sleigh Patrol in North East Greenland as well as other installations up there and surveille sea ice and participate in SAR duties thus at least 1 C-130 unit and 1 Challenger unit is needed with reserves of at least one each makes for two of each type.
As tension is rising in the Arctic Greenland may well want some Surveillance/ASW aircraft optimally 3 of each.
Finally something like the Sirius Sleigh Patrol must be maintained in Northeast Greenland to claim sovreignty there.
That would make for some 25 troops in the area year round with a steady recruitment. This type of service is very much in line with traditional Inuit hunting way of life and would be easily most easily of all services formed and maintained.
Additionally a small reserve to form heavy support for Police but also to combat intrusions; possibly no more than 2-3 companies needed.
However the population base of Greenlands limited to 55,000. It will be difficult to maintain a force of some 250 for the Navy, 100 for the Airforce and some 300 for the Sleigh Patrol/Infantry.
650 may seem small for a nation of 55,000 but more than half will be specialists outside Inuit way of life and about half of these highly specialized aircrew which may even tax the ability to run the internal and external air-services!
The majority of the Infantry would have to be parttimers like a Homeguard beefed up with former Sleigh Patrol personnel.
Air Greenland runs a fleet of 1 Airbus 330-200, 7 DASH-8 and 1 King Air.
2 Airbus H225 Helo's, 8 Bell 212 and 9 AS350.
The Airbus H225 have a SAR obligation and the King Air is a flying ambulance.
To minimize expences and draw on existing resources the Greenland Navy may be termed a Coast Guard and share helicopters maintenance with Air Greenland by utilizing 3-4 H225 and 4 Bell 212 with one of each in reserve. Perhaps some arrangement could be made putting the Air Ambulance Service with the new Air National Guard using its aircraft and thus free Air Greenland of its need to field one such. Air Greenland also have a SAR obligation for its two H225 which could also be taken over by Coast Guard. As Air Greenland is partly owned by Greenland Government that would be a savings.
Any thoughts?
