kasumigenx
Lieutenant Commander
Posts: 818 
Likes: 258
|
Post by kasumigenx on Jan 17, 2022 16:38:30 GMT
What I am asking what would be the consequences for other countries if Spain does not conquer the Philippines not the debate of who gets it. The consequence is that Spain conquers it a bit later, or, if they fail to do so, Portugal or the Dutch snap it up. It was in too attractive a strategic location for it not to be conquered and colonised by stronger, more advanced empires. I think it would be likely partitioned between powers. I am asking the consequence for Spain not getting the Philippines, how they will deal with that. |
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jan 17, 2022 16:46:46 GMT
The only other power in those waters at the time was Portugal, who had already partitioned the New World with Spain.
Spain will have another go, given the next expedition to the Philippines came in 1525 and was followed by others regularly until López de Legazpi in the late 1560s. Given the intervening ~40 years, the non-arrival of Magellan to lands already known isn’t going to be a decisive game changer on the facts as they stand at the moment.
Even if Portugal gets it, then Spain will absorb their holding during the Iberian Union.
|
|
kasumigenx
Lieutenant Commander
Posts: 818
Likes: 258
|
Post by kasumigenx on Jan 17, 2022 16:52:20 GMT
The only other power in those waters at the time was Portugal, who had already partitioned the New World with Spain. Spain will have another go, given the next expedition to the Philippines came in 1525 and was followed by others regularly until López de Legazpi in the late 1560s. Given the intervening ~40 years, the non-arrival of Magellan to lands already known isn’t going to be a decisive game changer on the facts as they stand at the moment. Even if Portugal gets it, then Spain will absorb their holding during the Iberian Union. Actually, Portugal could theoretically get Luzon due to the alliance of the Majapahit Emperor with the Portuguese and get rid of the Bruneians to make them tributaries to the Portuguese since Luzon was under Majapahit suzerainty according to Negarakertagama, but I think the Iberian Union could be easily butterflied by a survival of a Male heir of the Avis dynasty in Portugal in that scenario. |
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jan 17, 2022 17:03:34 GMT
The first point may be correct, dependent on the revision of Tordesillas on the Molucca line, which was in the works prior to Magellan.
It does not follow that minor changes to voyages of exploration in the Spice Islands would have an impact on the life and death of Portuguese heirs.
|
|
kasumigenx
Lieutenant Commander
Posts: 818
Likes: 258
|
Post by kasumigenx on Jan 17, 2022 17:08:44 GMT
The first point may be correct, dependent on the revision of Tordesillas on the Molucca line, which was in the works prior to Magellan. It does not follow that minor changes to voyages of exploration in the Spice Islands would have an impact on the life and death of Portuguese heirs. The birth of Philip II happens in the POD which is 1528 when the last Majapahit Emperor, Prabu Udara died, more of the children of Catherine of Austria might live. Aside from Tordesillas, we have the personal alliance and blood compacts as a source of claims which occurs along with the right of conquest/discovery. I think a dutch philippines might be interesting. |
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jan 18, 2022 1:11:03 GMT
That doesn’t make a great deal of sense.
A Point of Departure is a single event that then causes ripples of change.
If the PoD is a 1528 death of some Far Eastern potentate, then it does not change the deaths of any of Catherine’s four sons who died in infancy or early childhood, nor extend Joao Manuel or Sebastian.
I would further note that Phillip II was born in 1527, before the putative PoD, and that Magellan’s voyage occurred in 1521, well before it. For an alternate history scenario, you need to pick a single PoD and stick with it, not move around and make all sorts of wild and unsupported claims without any real supporting argument.
There is a possible scenario here, but you need to choose your PoD, present your argument, support it with evidence and then pursue it, even if it doesn’t end up where you want it to. Otherwise, it is just disorganised random assertions such as the relative interest level of a Dutch Philippines.
It will take a lot for anything in the Philippines to have more than a regional consequence.
|
|
|
|
Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 18, 2022 3:21:34 GMT
I'm not sure what the PoD is for preventing the discovery for the Philippines, but I will give this a try:
If the PoD was around the 1490s, where it is theoretically possible for Portugal, Castile, and Aragon to unite under the House of Avis (I would have gone with Prince Afonso surviving the horse riding accident that killed him IOTL, meaning that he is free to marry Isabella of Aragon), then there would have been no need for a Treaty of Torsedillas, meaning that Portugal might have a freer hand to explore the New World alongside Castile and Aragon. However, this means another nation would take Portugal's OTL role of trying to find an eastern route to Asia (possibly France or England). Even if in this case Magellan would still be sailing under the Portuguese crown, he might not land in the Philippines, but rather somewhere close to Australia.
Now, if we're trying to go with a surviving Bolkiah dynasty, it might be too late to preserve Bruneian dominance of Luzon, as they had a civil war in the 1660s. Although in the absence of the Spanish, or a different discovery of the Philippines, I'm not sure what would have happened to the Bruneians.
Another possible scenario that I would have explored would have been a different pirate kingdom emerging in a different part of the Philippines. Historically, there was one pirate kingdom that was established in what is now Pangasinan, led by the infamous Limahong, but that pirate kingdom didn't last long. You could have a different pirate warlord settle in another part of what is now the Philippines (Aparri would be a good spot, as it was originally a Japanese trading post), and settle the place with more pirates, but it might not last long due to the Spanish being there. However, once again, if the Spaniards didn't discover the Philippines, chances are that the pirate kingdom in the 'Philippines' would have been a client state of either any Chinese dynasty (not happening, as the Chinese were gung ho in their anti-piracy campaigns), or any Japanese shogunate.
Because of its proximity to the rest of SE Asia, I'm surprised that OTL Philippines didn't end up becoming an extension of the whole Indochina region. I was toying with the idea of an obscure Vietnamese prince fleeing from his homeland and ending up in western Luzon, where he carves out a small kingdom that stands in opposition to whichever Vietnamese dynasty is in power that is an enemy of whichever dynasty the obscure Vietnamese prince belongs to, but this is an exceedingly difficult to accomplish.
This is just my scenarios in hand, and I hope you guys don't get too confused by it.
|
|
kasumigenx
Lieutenant Commander
Posts: 818
Likes: 258
|
Post by kasumigenx on Jan 18, 2022 3:57:32 GMT
I'm not sure what the PoD is for preventing the discovery for the Philippines, but I will give this a try: If the PoD was around the 1490s, where it is theoretically possible for Portugal, Castile, and Aragon to unite under the House of Avis (I would have gone with Prince Afonso surviving the horse riding accident that killed him IOTL, meaning that he is free to marry Isabella of Aragon), then there would have been no need for a Treaty of Torsedillas, meaning that Portugal might have a freer hand to explore the New World alongside Castile and Aragon. However, this means another nation would take Portugal's OTL role of trying to find an eastern route to Asia (possibly France or England). Even if in this case Magellan would still be sailing under the Portuguese crown, he might not land in the Philippines, but rather somewhere close to Australia. Now, if we're trying to go with a surviving Bolkiah dynasty, it might be too late to preserve Bruneian dominance of Luzon, as they had a civil war in the 1660s. Although in the absence of the Spanish, or a different discovery of the Philippines, I'm not sure what would have happened to the Bruneians. Another possible scenario that I would have explored would have been a different pirate kingdom emerging in a different part of the Philippines. Historically, there was one pirate kingdom that was established in what is now Pangasinan, led by the infamous Limahong, but that pirate kingdom didn't last long. You could have a different pirate warlord settle in another part of what is now the Philippines (Aparri would be a good spot, as it was originally a Japanese trading post), and settle the place with more pirates, but it might not last long due to the Spanish being there. However, once again, if the Spaniards didn't discover the Philippines, chances are that the pirate kingdom in the 'Philippines' would have been a client state of either any Chinese dynasty (not happening, as the Chinese were gung ho in their anti-piracy campaigns), or any Japanese shogunate. Because of its proximity to the rest of SE Asia, I'm surprised that OTL Philippines didn't end up becoming an extension of the whole Indochina region. I was toying with the idea of an obscure Vietnamese prince fleeing from his homeland and ending up in western Luzon, where he carves out a small kingdom that stands in opposition to whichever Vietnamese dynasty is in power that is an enemy of whichever dynasty the obscure Vietnamese prince belongs to, but this is an exceedingly difficult to accomplish. This is just my scenarios in hand, and I hope you guys don't get too confused by it. The chieftains of Macabebe and the so Called Kapampangan Empire has claims to Tondo, I think they were in the way to unite Northern Luzon had Lakandula not been around, they have some trading ties with Japan as well, they are hinted to be also affiliated with the rulers of Kaboloan as Kaboloan also abides a similar non-agression treaty with Lakandula which he used to help the Spanish, a stupid battle ended the Kapampangan Empire and Macabebe which would be butterflied in this scenario, they could actually make them a perfect client state for Japan under Toyotomi or Tokugawa. Luzon was not called Luzon in the Malay annals but it is referred as Selurong. That doesn’t make a great deal of sense. A Point of Departure is a single event that then causes ripples of change. If the PoD is a 1528 death of some Far Eastern potentate, then it does not change the deaths of any of Catherine’s four sons who died in infancy or early childhood, nor extend Joao Manuel or Sebastian. I would further note that Phillip II was born in 1527, before the putative PoD, and that Magellan’s voyage occurred in 1521, well before it. For an alternate history scenario, you need to pick a single PoD and stick with it, not move around and make all sorts of wild and unsupported claims without any real supporting argument. There is a possible scenario here, but you need to choose your PoD, present your argument, support it with evidence and then pursue it, even if it doesn’t end up where you want it to. Otherwise, it is just disorganised random assertions such as the relative interest level of a Dutch Philippines. It will take a lot for anything in the Philippines to have more than a regional consequence. The POD is 1521 and Magellan lands in Celebes rather than the Philippines. |
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jan 18, 2022 4:12:24 GMT
That isn’t going to change anything in Portugal or alter the birth of Phillip II.
Magellan landing in Celebes may help him survive, but would not change the reasons for Spanish interest in the Far East nor the knowledge of the Philippines. It may delay subsequent expeditions, but I’m not sure it would delay the 1560s/70s conquest given the disparity in power and military technology.
|
|
kasumigenx
Lieutenant Commander
Posts: 818
Likes: 258
|
Post by kasumigenx on Jan 18, 2022 4:21:37 GMT
That isn’t going to change anything in Portugal or alter the birth of Phillip II. Magellan landing in Celebes may help him survive, but would not change the reasons for Spanish interest in the Far East nor the knowledge of the Philippines. It may delay subsequent expeditions, but I’m not sure it would delay the 1560s/70s conquest given the disparity in power and military technology. The tech of Bruneian Empire is the same as the one used by Malacca/Aceh against the Portuguese, I don't think Brunei would survive to the present, a Christian resurrected Bruneian Empire under a christian cadet line of Bolkiah is actually possible since they are the ones that started the Tondo Conspiracy. |
|
|
|
Post by simon darkshade on Jan 18, 2022 4:43:19 GMT
Considering that the Portuguese defeated odds of over 20:1 in Malacca, I similarly don’t give the Bruneians much of a chance against better armed conquistadors 50+ years later.
|
|
kasumigenx
Lieutenant Commander
Posts: 818
Likes: 258
|
Post by kasumigenx on Jan 18, 2022 5:03:02 GMT
Considering that the Portuguese defeated odds of over 20:1 in Malacca, I similarly don’t give the Bruneians much of a chance against better armed conquistadors 50+ years later. I think the Ottomans could actually prop the Bruneians if they decided to create their Suez Canal, but what would they gain from that. |
|
|
|
Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 18, 2022 5:48:30 GMT
The Ottomans' main issue is their naval projection, since the Christian powers had focused more on their naval prowess to compensate for their difficulty in defeating the Ottoman forces on land. Not only that, in order to have a larger naval presence, the Ottomans would have to seize control of the entire Arabian peninsula, and exert control over the Horn of Africa. However, even that proposal might run into certain kinds of difficulties.
|
|
kasumigenx
Lieutenant Commander
Posts: 818
Likes: 258
|
Post by kasumigenx on Jan 18, 2022 7:16:08 GMT
The Ottomans' main issue is their naval projection, since the Christian powers had focused more on their naval prowess to compensate for their difficulty in defeating the Ottoman forces on land. Not only that, in order to have a larger naval presence, the Ottomans would have to seize control of the entire Arabian peninsula, and exert control over the Horn of Africa. However, even that proposal might run into certain kinds of difficulties. Perhaps if they control Suez they can save Malacca and Brunei, although the Philippines going under Dutch influence might be interesting, although if the Dutch were butterfied due to Philip II not marrying Mary I and Netherlands going to the Austrian Habsburgs, the English might take the role of the Dutch instead. |
|
kasumigenx
Lieutenant Commander
Posts: 818
Likes: 258
|
Post by kasumigenx on Jan 19, 2022 8:10:32 GMT
Considering that the Portuguese defeated odds of over 20:1 in Malacca, I similarly don’t give the Bruneians much of a chance against better armed conquistadors 50+ years later. ITTL the Portuguese got expelled at Malacca(and the Portuguese were expelled from Aceh later on) and they not completely controlled the Malayan peninsula outside Malacca, something similar could have happened to Luzon ITTL had politics there been different or the Bangkusay battle did not happen. |
|
