kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Jan 15, 2022 22:12:11 GMT
Since I am doing a timeline where the Spanish don't colonize and discover the Philippines, it will be quite obvious that there will be the impact of the Spanish not conquering in the territory and one of that is that Luzon would be divided into a state ruled by Bruneian dynasty and a state ruled by a Local dynasty, I think both would end up as tributaries of Brunei as Luzon was during the time Legaspi came, there is an alliance between the dynasty of Tondo and Caboloan or Northern Luzon in general and Japan, the prior alliance and tribute relationship with Majapahit which would die in 1528 when Majapahit disappears completely and the Visayan states would still be in danger of Brunei conquering them.
Here the Ming would survive and they would have not experience inflation by Silver, but how would the other states and powers in the world fare in that situation.
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Post by Otto Kretschmer on Jan 16, 2022 18:24:57 GMT
Since I am doing a timeline where the Spanish don't colonize and discover the Philippines, it will be quite obvious that there will be the impact of the Spanish not conquering in the territory and one of that is that Luzon would be divided into a state ruled by Bruneian dynasty and a state ruled by a Local dynasty, I think both would end up as tributaries of Brunei as Luzon was during the time Legaspi came, there is an alliance between the dynasty of Tondo and Caboloan or Northern Luzon in general and Japan, the prior alliance and tribute relationship with Majapahit which would die in 1528 when Majapahit disappears completely and the Visayan states would still be in danger of Brunei conquering them. Here the Ming would survive and they would have not experience inflation by Silver, but how would the other states and powers in the world fare in that situation. The Portuguese or the Dutch might colonize the Philippines |
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kasumigenx
Lieutenant Commander
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Post by kasumigenx on Jan 16, 2022 20:44:24 GMT
Since I am doing a timeline where the Spanish don't colonize and discover the Philippines, it will be quite obvious that there will be the impact of the Spanish not conquering in the territory and one of that is that Luzon would be divided into a state ruled by Bruneian dynasty and a state ruled by a Local dynasty, I think both would end up as tributaries of Brunei as Luzon was during the time Legaspi came, there is an alliance between the dynasty of Tondo and Caboloan or Northern Luzon in general and Japan, the prior alliance and tribute relationship with Majapahit which would die in 1528 when Majapahit disappears completely and the Visayan states would still be in danger of Brunei conquering them. Here the Ming would survive and they would have not experience inflation by Silver, but how would the other states and powers in the world fare in that situation. The Portuguese or the Dutch might colonize the Philippines Although the Bruneians could be proped by the Ottomans. |
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 17, 2022 6:49:54 GMT
The Turks didn’t have the ability to project power into the Pacific on a long term basis.
If it isn’t the Spanish, then it is likely that Portugal or the Netherlands grab it, depending on Tordesillas. In the long term, it likely comes up Spanish rule during the Iberian Union. Regardless of whether it is Spanish or Portuguese, it still gets conquered/occupied by the British during the Seven Years’ War.
Long story short, it is too enticing a target to somehow slide through the epoch of colonisation without being taken eventually.
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Jan 17, 2022 15:36:06 GMT
The Turks didn’t have the ability to project power into the Pacific on a long term basis. If it isn’t the Spanish, then it is likely that Portugal or the Netherlands grab it, depending on Tordesillas. In the long term, it likely comes up Spanish rule during the Iberian Union. Regardless of whether it is Spanish or Portuguese, it still gets conquered/occupied by the British during the Seven Years’ War. Long story short, it is too enticing a target to somehow slide through the epoch of colonisation without being taken eventually. I think the Bruneians could survive longer if Magellan expedition did not come or it will be longer, I think the part of Luzon that remained not under Bruneian dynasty or not seized by Bolkiah would be under Japanese influence due to the Japanese trade there replacing the Majapahitans and the Bruneians once the Bruneians lose their influence, butterflying Sakoku and this could be used as a buffer for any colonial power, the part of Luzon under the Bruneian Dynasty would be under the Power that would conquer/replace the Bruneian Empire. I think someone would take advantage of the tension between the Visayans and the Bruneians, I think the Dutch could perfectly do that. |
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 17, 2022 16:02:54 GMT
I think you are vastly overrating three things:
- The relative power and significance of Brunei
- The ability of any of the archipelagic states/statelets to withstand European conquest
- The importance and consequence of Luzon
On the last point, you’d need a fairly strong argument to prove that Japan would not institute sakoku because of events in the Philippines!
If not Magellan, then his role will be taken by a later Spanish expedition, of which there were several.
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Jan 17, 2022 16:14:57 GMT
I think you are vastly overrating three things: - The relative power and significance of Brunei - The ability of any of the archipelagic states/statelets to withstand European conquest - The importance and consequence of Luzon On the last point, you’d need a fairly strong argument to prove that Japan would not institute sakoku because of events in the Philippines! If not Magellan, then his role will be taken by a later Spanish expedition, of which there were several. I am not, because it was Lakandula who made the conquest of Luzon possible in the first place and second if there was no Magellan-Elcano expedition, the Spanish will know nothing about the Bruneians, since the Magellan-Elcano expedition encountered and battled a prince from Brunei IOTL. |
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 17, 2022 16:23:21 GMT
Simply asserting something is no substitute for argument.
You have made a few very sweeping assertions, such as the Ming surviving and then also having dramatically different economic outcomes over a century later.
You need to actually put forward some logical points and evidence to support very large consequences on a regional and indeed global level. The role of individual native rulers is irrelevant beyond the short term - the Spanish and Portuguese are in the neighbourhood throughout the 16th century and the Dutch will be following.
Edit: Without Magellan, the Europeans are still coming. No large land masses would be permanently ignored.
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Jan 17, 2022 16:26:38 GMT
Simply asserting something is no substitute for argument. You have made a few very sweeping assertions, such as the Ming surviving and then also having dramatically different economic outcomes over a century later. You need to actually put forward some logical points and evidence to support very large consequences on a regional and indeed global level. The role of individual native rulers is irrelevant beyond the short term - the Spanish and Portuguese are in the neighbourhood throughout the 16th century and the Dutch will be following. It is because I know my own history, but with the Spanish or Dutch not knowing the Bruneians would make the Bruneians more harder to defeat and the conquest could become longer and the Japanese could make Caboloan or the Tondo successor state their client state. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 17, 2022 16:28:50 GMT
Simply asserting something is no substitute for argument. You have made a few very sweeping assertions, such as the Ming surviving and then also having dramatically different economic outcomes over a century later. You need to actually put forward some logical points and evidence to support very large consequences on a regional and indeed global level. The role of individual native rulers is irrelevant beyond the short term - the Spanish and Portuguese are in the neighbourhood throughout the 16th century and the Dutch will be following. It is because I know my own history better than you know since I live here, but with the Spanish or Dutch not knowing the Bruneians would make them more harder to defeat. Living in a place does not mean knowing more about its history. of where you live. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Jan 17, 2022 16:31:23 GMT
It is because I know my own history better than you know since I live here, but with the Spanish or Dutch not knowing the Bruneians would make them more harder to defeat. Living in a place does not mean knowing more about its history. of where you live. I actually know sources of history here that are not eurocentric. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Jan 17, 2022 16:32:59 GMT
What I am asking what would be the consequences for other countries if Spain does not conquer the Philippines not the debate of who gets it.
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 17, 2022 16:33:43 GMT
I’m not disputing your knowledge of Filipino history, but rather its broad consequence. So far, you are yet to actually support any of your assertions with argument, let alone facts.
Magellan not encountering the Bruneians does not change the fact that the Spanish are coming in future expeditions. It might, might change some of the dates and timeframes, but not the end result.
It certainly doesn’t change the technological or military difference between them and the Europeans and it really, really doesn’t explain how the Japanese are going to undergo a compete historical volte face, nor the Ming not only survive, but prosper.
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kasumigenx
Lieutenant Commander
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Post by kasumigenx on Jan 17, 2022 16:35:19 GMT
I’m not disputing your knowledge of Filipino history, but rather its broad consequence. So far, you are yet to actually support any of your assertions with argument, let alone facts. Magellan not encountering the Bruneians does not change the fact that the Spanish are coming in future expeditions. It might, might change some of the dates and timeframes, but not the end result. It certainly doesn’t change the technological or military difference between them and the Europeans and it really, really doesn’t explain how the Japanese are going to undergo a compete historical volte face, nor the Ming not only survive, but prosper. Yes, but if the Spanish got Maluku, they will not realize the value of the Islands north of it giving time for the Bruneians a space to actually be ready against the Spanish. |
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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 17, 2022 16:35:44 GMT
What I am asking what would be the consequences for other countries if Spain does not conquer the Philippines not the debate of who gets it. The consequence is that Spain conquers it a bit later, or, if they fail to do so, Portugal or the Dutch snap it up. It was in too attractive a strategic location for it not to be conquered and colonised by stronger, more advanced empires. |
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