Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jan 7, 2022 20:07:53 GMT
While technically not historical by definition, future history is a subject we like to discuss both here and on other AH boards. Not only does making serious predictions and extrapolations about the future generate yet more hypothetical discussion, it can also help show (or at least, suggest) continuity between long-running historical trends, current events, and whatever the future holds a hundred, a thousand, or a hundred-thousand years from now. So, as a continuation of my previously abandoned thread, what kinds of PoDs are future AH enthusiasts likely to discuss? Obviously, this is a speculation-heavy topic, as not only are traditional counterfactuals inherently conjectural on their own, but we're also forced to sketch out OTL future somewhat to surmise what sorts of missed opportunities (as well as thankfully avoided catastrophes) are ripe for future discussion. Thank you in advance, Zyobot
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jan 9, 2022 1:19:08 GMT
Given current trends I won't cover exhaustively here, I'm guessing that 'Stable EU' will be relentlessly discussed by future AH communities? I'm sure they'll point to Brexit and Germany's outsized role, though that's not to rule out yet-to-occur turning points that will be history for them.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 9, 2022 12:14:27 GMT
Given current trends I won't cover exhaustively here, I'm guessing that 'Stable EU' will be relentlessly discussed by future AH communities? I'm sure they'll point to Brexit and Germany's outsized role, though that's not to rule out yet-to-occur turning points that will be history for them.
Well there are a number of big power blocs, US, China, EU, Russia, India being the primary ones. Even ignoring climatic issues, some idiot starting a big war or another, more serious pandemic all of them could face serious problems, possibly even threatening their continued survival as a major state in the next couple of decades. Many small nations face similar or greater problems.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jan 9, 2022 17:28:35 GMT
Given current trends I won't cover exhaustively here, I'm guessing that 'Stable EU' will be relentlessly discussed by future AH communities? I'm sure they'll point to Brexit and Germany's outsized role, though that's not to rule out yet-to-occur turning points that will be history for them.
Well there are a number of big power blocs, US, China, EU, Russia, India being the primary ones. Even ignoring climatic issues, some idiot starting a big war or another, more serious pandemic all of them could face serious problems, possibly even threatening their continued survival as a major state in the next couple of decades. Many small nations face similar or greater problems.
Yeah, the collapse of any one of them would throw the world into chaos. Not least because of roiled financial markets, loose nukes, and the other "big guys" moving in to restore order. Naturally, multiple collapses happening in short succession (or even simultaneously) might as well devolve into World War III, considering how the fighting may spill across borders and draw everyone else into the inferno, too!
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jan 17, 2022 17:54:30 GMT
Depends on what the catalyst is and how its results play out. But if something along the lines of a North American Union forms within the next few centuries, I can imagine 'Earlier Integration of Canada and/or Mexico?' being a popular PoD.
(Assuming the former US is either the central or most prominent member, anyway, as Britain once was with regards to its empire.)
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 19, 2022 14:30:38 GMT
Depends on what the catalyst is and how its results play out. But if something along the lines of a North American Union forms within the next few centuries, I can imagine 'Earlier Integration of Canada and/or Mexico?' being a popular PoD. (Assuming the former US is either the central or most prominent member, anyway, as Britain once was with regards to its empire.)
Some sort of union is likely sooner or later provided that the US doesn't implode seriously or events move against continental sized states - either through technology shifts or massive crisis/disaster. Its simply got too much population for Canada. Even if relatively limited global warming, say 3-5% opened up a lot more land in Canada it would be most likely be swamped by settlers from the US, especially since such changes would mean a hell of a lot of people probably driven from their homes in the US.
Mexico might have a better chance of staying outside such a union because of its own substantial population and the wider cultural differences.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jan 29, 2022 20:43:30 GMT
Given its sordid reputation and central importance in shaping twentieth-century politics, I suppose ‘No Large-Scale Totalitarianism’ is another big one they’d discuss. Particularly if the twenty-first builds on it or sees a new, even more vicious batch of despots seize power, the groundwork for which is probably being laid, as we speak.
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Post by Max Sinister on Oct 26, 2022 0:50:32 GMT
On the one hand I can see the justification of your worries... OTOH, it's hard to deny that Trump is no Hitler, Berlusconi is no Mussolini, and Putin is no Stalin either. Even Xi Jinping is no Mao.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Oct 26, 2022 3:09:15 GMT
On the one hand I can see the justification of your worries... OTOH, it's hard to deny that Trump is no Hitler, Berlusconi is no Mussolini, and Putin is no Stalin either. Even Xi Jinping is no Mao. Yeah, but that’s only the leadership of the early 21st century, whereas I’m more concerned about who’s in charge by mid to late century — especially with things becoming more and more extreme everywhere, on all sides. I won’t delve into specifics here, but current trends — more specifically, the future they’re building up to — have a history of creating power-hungry strongmen who don’t play nice. The twentieth century has shown us what they’re like, but considering how the horrors associated with them fade as people forget and a new generation take the reins, I’ve a feeling that once Gen Z is in power, everything will be back on the table.
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Post by Max Sinister on Oct 29, 2022 17:28:04 GMT
Why Gen Z and not some other generation?
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Oct 30, 2022 15:29:26 GMT
Why Gen Z and not some other generation? Actually, I suppose you could include Millennials, too, seeing as they and Gen Z should be in charge by mid-century. Timetable-wise, that’s a couple of decades after the last of the Greatest and Silent Generations will have dropped off, meaning the horrors brought about by the last crisis period — and therefore, many of the restraints and taboos they had, because they understood how catastrophic worldwide war could be — wonky be in living memory anymore. Because frankly, Millennials and Gen Z have no experience with a serious war that threatens to destabilize the whole world, though the way things are going, they’ll probably acquire it at some point. After all, if the Napoleonic Wars were followed by World War I a century later, and World War I followed by World War II just twenty-one years later, then I hardly think it’s a stretch to imagine another global conflict breaking out… sometime between the 2040s and 2060s, let’s say.
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Post by Max Sinister on Nov 2, 2022 9:49:06 GMT
Generations... but if this is true, why did WW2 happen so shortly after WW1? Certainly not because all the WW1 veterans had died off. Hell, Mussolini and Hitler were WW1 veterans.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 2, 2022 16:44:09 GMT
Generations... but if this is true, why did WW2 happen so shortly after WW1? Certainly not because all the WW1 veterans had died off. Hell, Mussolini and Hitler were WW1 veterans.
That is the odd thing compared to the relatively restrained warfare than tended to emerge after other periods of brutal conflict.
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Post by Max Sinister on Nov 5, 2022 11:38:21 GMT
Generations... but if this is true, why did WW2 happen so shortly after WW1? Certainly not because all the WW1 veterans had died off. Hell, Mussolini and Hitler were WW1 veterans.
That is the odd thing compared to the relatively restrained warfare than tended to emerge after other periods of brutal conflict.
Yes, it really seems that the Hitlers, Mussolinis etc. didn't have enough of the war with all of its horrors. They wanted revenge.
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