kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Dec 7, 2021 6:14:13 GMT
Similar yet different
-On 1972, Richard Nixon would pick Gerald Ford as his running mate.
-Richard Nixon would resign after a long battle with impeachment on 1974
-President Gerald Ford would be forbidden to join the elections and the old vice president, Spiro Agnew would run against Carter and would lose in 1976.
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-On 2008, Obama would run and defeat Hillary Clinton in the Primaries, later defeating Mccain, the nominee of the Republican Party and succeeds Bush as President.
-Prince Harry dates Ivanka Trump
-Independence Day 2 would premiere on 2008 a movie that would be said to parallel the loss of HRC in 2008 elections.
-Beginning of the Flu Epidemic in late 2010
-Obama would succumb to flu in 2011, causing Biden to replace him.
-Reiwa period starts in 2011 due to Emperor Akihito passing due to the flu epidemic
-Biden would be defeated in the elections by Mitt Romney in 2012 and Mitt Romney succeeds as president.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Dec 7, 2021 23:47:19 GMT
Question: do both sets of events happen in the same TL or in two different TLs that proceed similarly to OTL, with a number of minor exceptions?
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Dec 8, 2021 4:05:29 GMT
Question: do both sets of events happen in the same TL or in two different TLs that proceed similarly to OTL, with a number of minor exceptions? It is the same TL. |
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Dec 8, 2021 4:12:24 GMT
Question: do both sets of events happen in the same TL or in two different TLs that proceed similarly to OTL, with a number of minor exceptions? It is the same TL. Okay, thanks. Curious as to how we get similar results, despite the butterflies having flapped their wings decades before. For instance, how can we be sure that Obama will still enter politics if Nixon swaps out Agnew for Ford in 1972, and so on and so forth? Maybe OTL’s not the only way he could become POTUS, but the fact he does here without a case really being made for why it’s plausible just seems contrived to me. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Dec 8, 2021 5:17:02 GMT
Okay, thanks. Curious as to how we get similar results, despite the butterflies having flapped their wings decades before. For instance, how can we be sure that Obama will still enter politics if Nixon swaps out Agnew for Ford in 1972, and so on and so forth? Maybe OTL’s not the only way he could become POTUS, but the fact he does here without a case really being made for why it’s plausible just seems contrived to me. It is actually possible although here the primary reason why Obama won was due to Iraq and it is the Iraq issue which would have pulled him to presidency rather than the other factors, although the Arab spring is butterflied here. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Dec 8, 2021 11:00:34 GMT
Okay, thanks. Curious as to how we get similar results, despite the butterflies having flapped their wings decades before. For instance, how can we be sure that Obama will still enter politics if Nixon swaps out Agnew for Ford in 1972, and so on and so forth? Maybe OTL’s not the only way he could become POTUS, but the fact he does here without a case really being made for why it’s plausible just seems contrived to me. If there is someone whose political career would be butterflied here, it would be Trump. |
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Dec 8, 2021 11:02:29 GMT
Okay, thanks. Curious as to how we get similar results, despite the butterflies having flapped their wings decades before. For instance, how can we be sure that Obama will still enter politics if Nixon swaps out Agnew for Ford in 1972, and so on and so forth? Maybe OTL’s not the only way he could become POTUS, but the fact he does here without a case really being made for why it’s plausible just seems contrived to me. It is actually possible although here the primary reason why Obama won was due to Iraq and it is the Iraq issue which would have pulled him to presidency rather than the other factors, although the Arab spring is butterflied here. Doesn’t really answer my question. Again, you’re assuming Bush’s Iraq War still happens here and that the political climate of 2008 is basically the same as IOTL, minus whatever “other factors” you’re removing (i.e. Hurricane Katrina and the Great Recession). What I’m talking about is—to use the analogy my game-theory professor once gave me for math proofs—leaving a trail of “bread crumbs” that get us from Point A (your PoD) to Point B (or perhaps Timeline B, since it’s a continuous series of changes from here on out). Respectfully, that’s now what I’m seeing here. Just a PoD, some assertions about what comes next that use OTL twenty-first century as a template, and an answer that doesn’t really answer my question. |
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Dec 8, 2021 11:06:39 GMT
Okay, thanks. Curious as to how we get similar results, despite the butterflies having flapped their wings decades before. For instance, how can we be sure that Obama will still enter politics if Nixon swaps out Agnew for Ford in 1972, and so on and so forth? Maybe OTL’s not the only way he could become POTUS, but the fact he does here without a case really being made for why it’s plausible just seems contrived to me. If there is someone whose political career would be butterflied here, it would be Trump. Why? Just because he may not be elected in 2016, doesn’t mean he can’t be elected at all. I know he wasn’t in your initial list of POTUS’s, but it still presupposes that your list makes sense (which I find dubious). Much less whether he becomes a senator or governor instead, which probably needs its own trail of bread crumbs to lead Trump into that position. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Dec 8, 2021 12:46:41 GMT
It is actually possible although here the primary reason why Obama won was due to Iraq and it is the Iraq issue which would have pulled him to presidency rather than the other factors, although the Arab spring is butterflied here. Doesn’t really answer my question. Again, you’re assuming Bush’s Iraq War still happens here and that the political climate of 2008 is basically the same as IOTL, minus whatever “other factors” you’re removing (i.e. Hurricane Katrina and the Great Recession). What I’m talking about is—to use the analogy my game-theory professor once gave me for math proofs—leaving a trail of “bread crumbs” that get us from Point A (your PoD) to Point B (or perhaps Timeline B, since it’s a continuous series of changes from here on out). Respectfully, that’s now what I’m seeing here. Just a PoD, some assertions about what comes next that use OTL twenty-first century as a template, and an answer that doesn’t really answer my question. Some writers use butterfly nets. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Dec 8, 2021 12:47:46 GMT
If there is someone whose political career would be butterflied here, it would be Trump. Why? Just because he may not be elected in 2016, doesn’t mean he can’t be elected at all. I know he wasn’t in your initial list of POTUS’s, but it still presupposes that your list makes sense (which I find dubious). Much less whether he becomes a senator or governor instead, which probably needs its own trail of bread crumbs to lead Trump into that position. Because butterflies could cause Trump to be completely discredited in his first attempt to run in the 2000 elections. |
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Dec 8, 2021 21:43:19 GMT
Some writers use butterfly nets. Hand-waving just because it's convenient and makes writing easier doesn't mean the TL is realistic. I know authors have a tendency to project their own biases and beliefs onto their scenarios no matter how thoroughly thought-out they are or how good of a story they make, but butterfly nets without a logical series of events justifying them is flat-out forced. Because butterflies could cause Trump to be completely discredited in his first attempt to run in the 2000 elections. The operative word here is "could". It may not technically be impossible, but if you're aiming for realism, then butterflying the Trump presidency "cuz reasons" isn't a decision rooted in evidence or reasoned deduction. It's your story and you're free to do what you want with it, but it seems to me we're not really getting anywhere here. So, for the time being, perhaps it's best if I bow out. I'll return if I come up with something else. |
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belushitd
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Post by belushitd on Dec 9, 2021 15:07:53 GMT
Ok.... I've now read the OP about four or five times, and I fail to see how the two scenarios are "similar yet different". All I see is different. I think I need more explanation.
Thanks
Belushi TD
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Dec 10, 2021 5:47:25 GMT
Ok.... I've now read the OP about four or five times, and I fail to see how the two scenarios are "similar yet different". All I see is different. I think I need more explanation. Thanks Belushi TD The TL is similar yet different from OTL. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on Dec 11, 2021 5:39:09 GMT
Some writers use butterfly nets. Hand-waving just because it's convenient and makes writing easier doesn't mean the TL is realistic. I know authors have a tendency to project their own biases and beliefs onto their scenarios no matter how thoroughly thought-out they are or how good of a story they make, but butterfly nets without a logical series of events justifying them is flat-out forced. Because butterflies could cause Trump to be completely discredited in his first attempt to run in the 2000 elections. The operative word here is "could". It may not technically be impossible, but if you're aiming for realism, then butterflying the Trump presidency "cuz reasons" isn't a decision rooted in evidence or reasoned deduction. It's your story and you're free to do what you want with it, but it seems to me we're not really getting anywhere here. So, for the time being, perhaps it's best if I bow out. I'll return if I come up with something else. The motivations of Obama here in this timeline are different from OTL and you don't have to understand this timeline. |
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Dec 11, 2021 21:21:34 GMT
The TL is similar yet different from OTL. The motivations of Obama here in this timeline are different from OTL and you don't have to understand this timeline. See, the marker of a good TL is that you can make people understand it by offering a clear series of steps between the PoD and the resulting divergences. Why you haven't bothered to explain beyond just repeating your vague line from earlier, I don't know. As such, I get the feeling you're either trolling or simply not listening. In which case, I think we're finished here for now. Best of luck with your TL. |
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