SinghSong
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Post by SinghSong on Oct 12, 2021 11:09:24 GMT
Let's say that the pivotal twenty-man Travancorean ambush in the Battle of the Nedumkotta, led by Vaikom Padmanabha Pillai, is thwarted ITTL- instead of successfully killing Tipu Sultan's army chief Meer Qamaruddin Khan in the ambush by a group of twenty Travancoreans, and inflicting lasting injury on Tipu Sultan himself, as well as capturing the sword, the palanquin, the dagger, the ring and many other personal effects of Tipu Sultan, to be presented triumphantly to the ruler of Travancore as happened IOTL, Vaikom Padmanabha Pillai and the other 19 reserve soldiers from the Nandyat Kalari are spotted, engaged and killed before they get the chance to ambush the Mysorean army leadership.
As such, TTL's Battle of the Nedumkotta results in a swift, hard-fought victory for the Mysoreans, who breach the Nedumkotta in early January 1790, more than three months earlier than IOTL, and subsequently advance across Travancore with their full invasion force. With the Governor of Madras John Holland choosing to engage in negotiations with Tipu rather than mobilizing the military (on account of his own vested financial interests as the primary creditor of the Nawabs of Arcot, and the knowledge that his primary source of earnings would be suspended in the event of war with Mysore), the East India Company's troops are left as passive spectators, with Travancore forced to surrender and become a tributary state of Mysore, bringing the conflict to an end and completing the Mysorean conquest of Kerala, in April 1790; before either Charles Cornwallis or General William Medows can relieve Holland of his command, and before the British East India Company can declare war on Mysore (which they only did in May 1790 IOTL).
What do you envision would be most likely to happen next ITTL? Is Holland still ousted from his post by either Cornwallis or Medows? Does it follow that the British would still declare war on Mysore over the invasion of Travancore, and start a Third Anglo-Mysore War, regardless of Tipu Sultan having already achieved victory? If so, then would the Nizam of Hyderabad and the Marathas still support the British in the campaign? And if not, then how much stronger might Mysore's position be by the time a Third Anglo-Mysore War broke out (if it ever did)? How much greater might the likelihood of Mysore retaining its independence, and dominance over Southern India, have been as a result?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 13, 2021 17:46:04 GMT
Let's say that the pivotal twenty-man Travancorean ambush in the Battle of the Nedumkotta, led by Vaikom Padmanabha Pillai, is thwarted ITTL- instead of successfully killing Tipu Sultan's army chief Meer Qamaruddin Khan in the ambush by a group of twenty Travancoreans, and inflicting lasting injury on Tipu Sultan himself, as well as capturing the sword, the palanquin, the dagger, the ring and many other personal effects of Tipu Sultan, to be presented triumphantly to the ruler of Travancore as happened IOTL, Vaikom Padmanabha Pillai and the other 19 reserve soldiers from the Nandyat Kalari are spotted, engaged and killed before they get the chance to ambush the Mysorean army leadership. As such, TTL's Battle of the Nedumkotta results in a swift, hard-fought victory for the Mysoreans, who breach the Nedumkotta in early January 1790, more than three months earlier than IOTL, and subsequently advance across Travancore with their full invasion force. With the Governor of Madras John Holland choosing to engage in negotiations with Tipu rather than mobilizing the military (on account of his own vested financial interests as the primary creditor of the Nawabs of Arcot, and the knowledge that his primary source of earnings would be suspended in the event of war with Mysore), the East India Company's troops are left as passive spectators, with Travancore forced to surrender and become a tributary state of Mysore, bringing the conflict to an end and completing the Mysorean conquest of Kerala, in April 1790; before either Charles Cornwallis or General William Medows can relieve Holland of his command, and before the British East India Company can declare war on Mysore (which they only did in May 1790 IOTL). What do you envision would be most likely to happen next ITTL? Is Holland still ousted from his post by either Cornwallis or Medows? Does it follow that the British would still declare war on Mysore over the invasion of Travancore, and start a Third Anglo-Mysore War, regardless of Tipu Sultan having already achieved victory? If so, then would the Nizam of Hyderabad and the Marathas still support the British in the campaign? And if not, then how much stronger might Mysore's position be by the time a Third Anglo-Mysore War broke out (if it ever did)? How much greater might the likelihood of Mysore retaining its independence, and dominance over Southern India, have been as a result?
I think sooner or later the EIC would move against Mysore, simply because it would be a potential rival to British domination of the sub-continent. There have already been two previous wars as you say so there was a fair amount of mistrust between the two. If Tipu secures all of Kerala that will make him strong, assuming he can hold the region without too much unrest.
If neither the Marathas nor Hyderabad supported the EIC then it would make it more difficult to defeat Tipu but unless they both came in against the company I doubt it would change the eventual result. India is too important to both the EIC and Britain to lose significant power at this stage and even with the Napoleonic wars ongoing I suspect that it would be seen as worth the effort.
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SinghSong
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Post by SinghSong on Nov 8, 2021 23:30:15 GMT
I think sooner or later the EIC would move against Mysore, simply because it would be a potential rival to British domination of the sub-continent. There have already been two previous wars as you say so there was a fair amount of mistrust between the two. If Tipu secures all of Kerala that will make him strong, assuming he can hold the region without too much unrest.
If neither the Marathas nor Hyderabad supported the EIC then it would make it more difficult to defeat Tipu but unless they both came in against the company I doubt it would change the eventual result. India is too important to both the EIC and Britain to lose significant power at this stage and even with the Napoleonic wars ongoing I suspect that it would be seen as worth the effort.
One of the things about that, though, was that Mysore wasn't particularly neutral in the Napoleonic Wars; with the French having been allied with Mysore in the Second Anglo-Mysore War, and with both Tipu Sultan and Napoleon having actively, and repeatedly, sought to establish an offensive and defensive alliance between Mysore and France, against the British. So there's every chance that, rather than the EIC moving against Mysore, it could well be Mysore moving against the EIC- with the full support and backing of Napoleon's coalition, with said conflict effectively becoming the Indian theater of the Napoleonic Wars. And if there are enough butterflies for British diplomats to fail in their efforts to persuade the Nizam of Hyderabad to remain neutral in the conflict as well, then Hyderabad (and their French Corps in particular) would've also been joining the conflict on the side of the French and Mysore, against the British. Also worth mentioning- ever heard of the Jacobin Club of Mysore? Founded by French Republican officers with the support of Tipu Sultan in 1794, who planted a Tree of Liberty at Srirangapatana in 1797 and declared himself 'Citizen Tipu' (in a similar manner to self-styled 'Citizen Emperor' Napoleon)? Even IOTL, the British regarded this link-up of Revolutionary Jacobin forces and Indian resistance as an extremely dangerous and frightening development, fearing that it could potentially spark an 'Indian Revolution' echoing the American and French ones. Just imagine how much more intimidating and terror-inducing this would've been for the EIC, with a significantly stronger, slightly larger and more militarily powerful Mysore. After all, even IOTL, the fledgling USA and its Founding Fathers saw Mysore as a great source of admiration and inspiration, and as a trusted partner of themselves and the French in the coalition which had enabled them to win the Revolutionary War; and when Tipu Sultan had sent a team of ambassadors to Paris in 1788, in an unsuccessful attempt to restore the Franco-Mysorean alliance, Thomas Jefferson, then the American minister to France, had reported on the event with keen interest, along with a significant degree of disappointment that the French had turned the Mysoreans down. Could the successful conquest of Travancore by Mysore before John Holland could be ousted from his post, in the event that it's tolerated in the short term by the EIC (and internationally) as a fait-accompli, potentially convince the US government to establish either its 1st or 2nd South Asian Consulate in Mysore (at either Mangalore or Bengaluru, replacing OTL's US Consulate in in Madras)- thus establishing official diplomatic relations with Mysore, and enabling American merchants to trade with India via Mysore's ports? And in the event it still isn't tolerated as a fait-accompli by the EIC ITTL, and they do kick off a 3rd Anglo-Mysore War in retaliation, what sort of stance might the French and Americans in particular be inclined to take? Back in 1777, on the advice of Thomas Conway, the American Continental Congress had given some consideration to sending an armed expeditionary force to aid Tipu Sultan and the French-led coalition in the 2nd Anglo-Mysore War, but decided it'd be too difficult and expensive. And it's worth noting that after losing his command in the US Continental Army after the Conway Cabal affair, Conway had returned to the French Army, been promoted to Major General, and appointed as Governor-General of French India; a post he'd held until only a couple of months before Hyder Ali launched his invasion of Travancore, with room for speculation he was removed from this post and hastily sent back to France due to fears that he'd breach the terms of the Treaty of Mangalore, having been all-too eager to aid or join Tipu Sultan's campaign against the hated British... |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 9, 2021 9:58:13 GMT
I think sooner or later the EIC would move against Mysore, simply because it would be a potential rival to British domination of the sub-continent. There have already been two previous wars as you say so there was a fair amount of mistrust between the two. If Tipu secures all of Kerala that will make him strong, assuming he can hold the region without too much unrest.
If neither the Marathas nor Hyderabad supported the EIC then it would make it more difficult to defeat Tipu but unless they both came in against the company I doubt it would change the eventual result. India is too important to both the EIC and Britain to lose significant power at this stage and even with the Napoleonic wars ongoing I suspect that it would be seen as worth the effort.
One of the things about that, though, was that Mysore wasn't particularly neutral in the Napoleonic Wars; with the French having been allied with Mysore in the Second Anglo-Mysore War, and with both Tipu Sultan and Napoleon having actively, and repeatedly, sought to establish an offensive and defensive alliance between Mysore and France, against the British. So there's every chance that, rather than the EIC moving against Mysore, it could well be Mysore moving against the EIC- with the full support and backing of Napoleon's coalition, with said conflict effectively becoming the Indian theater of the Napoleonic Wars. And if there are enough butterflies for British diplomats to fail in their efforts to persuade the Nizam of Hyderabad to remain neutral in the conflict as well, then Hyderabad (and their French Corps in particular) would've also been joining the conflict on the side of the French and Mysore, against the British. Also worth mentioning- ever heard of the Jacobin Club of Mysore? Founded by French Republican officers with the support of Tipu Sultan in 1794, who planted a Tree of Liberty at Srirangapatana in 1797 and declared himself 'Citizen Tipu' (in a similar manner to self-styled 'Citizen Emperor' Napoleon)? Even IOTL, the British regarded this link-up of Revolutionary Jacobin forces and Indian resistance as an extremely dangerous and frightening development, fearing that it could potentially spark an 'Indian Revolution' echoing the American and French ones. Just imagine how much more intimidating and terror-inducing this would've been for the EIC, with a significantly stronger, slightly larger and more militarily powerful Mysore. After all, even IOTL, the fledgling USA and its Founding Fathers saw Mysore as a great source of admiration and inspiration, and as a trusted partner of themselves and the French in the coalition which had enabled them to win the Revolutionary War; and when Tipu Sultan had sent a team of ambassadors to Paris in 1788, in an unsuccessful attempt to restore the Franco-Mysorean alliance, Thomas Jefferson, then the American minister to France, had reported on the event with keen interest, along with a significant degree of disappointment that the French had turned the Mysoreans down. Could the successful conquest of Travancore by Mysore before John Holland could be ousted from his post, in the event that it's tolerated in the short term by the EIC (and internationally) as a fait-accompli, potentially convince the US government to establish either its 1st or 2nd South Asian Consulate in Mysore (at either Mangalore or Bengaluru, replacing OTL's US Consulate in in Madras)- thus establishing official diplomatic relations with Mysore, and enabling American merchants to trade with India via Mysore's ports? And in the event it still isn't tolerated as a fait-accompli by the EIC ITTL, and they do kick off a 3rd Anglo-Mysore War in retaliation, what sort of stance might the French and Americans in particular be inclined to take? Back in 1777, on the advice of Thomas Conway, the American Continental Congress had given some consideration to sending an armed expeditionary force to aid Tipu Sultan and the French-led coalition in the 2nd Anglo-Mysore War, but decided it'd be too difficult and expensive. And it's worth noting that after losing his command in the US Continental Army after the Conway Cabal affair, Conway had returned to the French Army, been promoted to Major General, and appointed as Governor-General of French India; a post he'd held until only a couple of months before Hyder Ali launched his invasion of Travancore, with room for speculation he was removed from this post and hastily sent back to France due to fears that he'd breach the terms of the Treaty of Mangalore, having been all-too eager to aid or join Tipu Sultan's campaign against the hated British...
Yes both Napoleon and Tipu were opponents of Britain but France lacks any real capacity to support Mysore, whether in 1790, when the butterfly occurs and France is in the midst of the revolutionary chaos or later when Napoleon was gaining prominence in France. OTL Britain still managed to defeat Mysore in the war which resulted from his attack on Travancore. In this scenario if Holland was that corrupt and allowed an ally to be conquered by Tipu then there's likely to be a strong reaction against him in the company as his actions have seriously hit the companies interests, both by the loss of an ally to a clearly hostile state and also the concern among other allies that they can't rely on Britain. As such I think it likely that once Holland is replaced there is a decision to demand the restoration of Travancore's independence which is likely to trigger a war as its very much in the interests of the EIC. Or perhaps even Tipu gets so ambitious that he attacks some other company interest or ally. Possibly especially if his success and the EIC's inaction brings Hyderabad into his alliance. In that case the war is bloodier and longer but he's still going to be defeated as France is still a concern due to the chaos there rather than a serious threat. You might even see Tipu killed or otherwise removed in the early 1790's rather than at the end of the decade.
I can't see the US risking war with Britain at this time either as it has too much to lose. It would have no European allies so much that its gained would be at risk. Its grasp on its western territories are still limited so in such a scenario the American Indians could get actual support against US encroachment on their territory and the loyalists who fled the revolution definitely won't support them. Nor would the French in Quebec, who are deeply conservative socially and opposed to both the French revolution and the idea of being ruled by Washington.
There is the possibility that both a larger war in S India and some clash with the US would reduce British involvement in the wars against the French revolutionaries from ~1793 onward. However you could see both wars finished by then and Britain being able to send troops and commanders with recent combat experience to aid in the French war, so I doubt it would make a massive difference to the revolutionary wars.
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