(I was given permission to comment on an older post by a mode who is the author)
historical background of the Spanish empire The height of the Spanish empire was at the empire's earliest during the 1500s during the age of exploration, where ironically, spains glorious might ended almost as soon as it was during the 1500s. The first critical mistake was during the discovery of America is when the crown expelled the Jews from Spain, taking away critical sectors of the economy such as commerce, banking, skilled labor, and manufacturing evaporated with her during the expulsion of Jews from the unified kingdom in 1492. While Spain initially held the advantage of America's discovery, the gold and silver wealth proved a mixed blessing as the vast wealth led to inflation, hurting the motherland's economy. Unfortunately, Spain's treasury fleet and new world possessions would prove easy picking for English pirates who often mercilessly prayed on Spanish booty. In contrast, the Spanish imperial might remained stretched out over the vast and sometimes unrealistic claims Spain's stakes were throughout the new world.
These problems were further compacted with the crown's involvement in innumerable wars allowing much of Spain's new world riches to be squandered in fruitless wars enabling the nation's debt to rise and the cost of living in the empire. AS the empire would decline, Spain's forces within her would rely upon mosquitos to effectively stop any potential invasion from northern European protestant forces trying to counter the vast reality of the Spanish American empire. These same germs that had checked spains enemy advances in south America would also be spains menacing enemy during the series of liberation wars for South America's independence. The Habsburg monarchs were unlikely to grant any reform within the empire and spent a enormous amount of wealth playing international politics such as the holy roman empire
They Spanish leaders preferred a much more autocratic style of government, unlike that of Great Britain and the Netherlands, who were less mercantilistic-minded.
By the 1820s, Spain had experienced the loss of her empire, allowing Spanish economic conditions to worsen along with political instability, breading civil wars, and coups details in a nation that would receive little financial investment or growth. Spain's navy from the 1820s onward would experience poor conditions as her empire didn't have the economic incentive nor the capacity to control a vast empire as it did in her imperial past. In efforts to encourage forgighn investment, Spain allowed mild emancipation programs to enslavers To further strengthen ties with Britain and France. Spain would remain diplomatically protesting agianst the united state's manifest destiny ambition through the 1840s-1850s. By the 1840s, Spain tried to stabilize the situation by granting minimal suffrage rights along with a government allowing relative domestic peace and compromise under the reign of queen isabella the second of Spain; however, not until the 1850s would the fruits of stability finally reach her. Throughout the 1840s-the 1850s, Spain would receive 1 percent annual growth in domestic product and per capita compared to 5 percent of the rest of Europe. Her population also grew much lower than the rest of Europe. While Spain was predominantly agricultural, her industry growth did expand though it remained uneven.
Make Spain great again.
Relative though not true economic prosperity was achieved throughout the 1850s within the Iberian peninsula as railways improved and expanded through private investment and government subsidies The nation's economy improved as financial and investment reforms within the government allowed the economy to prosper. Spain's commerce which had a period of prolonged economic decay had finally experienced growth. While on the surface, the economy was improving, Spain's economy was still handicapped by over-relying on her allies, the British and the french, allowing Spain to be a near imperial puppet. Spain also experienced several peasant rebellions and coups despite the relative domestic peace she enjoyed.
While backward, the Spanish navy and army would experience revival, allowing Spain to have the 4th largest navy in the world in 1860. Spain's small industrial revolution wasn't complete disallowing a modern national army. The Spanish army was poorly equipped as soldiers' lives were expendable though a shaky treasury wasn't. Thus Spain's surplus for officers ranged from 10-15 per enlisted and a general per every 100-150 troops compared to eroupes forces per officer was every 50-100 troops. Yet despite spains imperfection, it had achieved several successful imperial adventures throughout the 1850s-1860s. Spain was put on the list of great power again.
The imperial might of Spain was tempted to join in the Crimean War but opted out due to ramifications from the USA, such as a Yankee invasion of Cuba. There were no immediate benefits from sending 20,000 Spaniards, even if France and Britain subsidized the men. The American civil war proved to be one instance that Spain hotly considered intervention even without first British and french assistance. Had the confederates been able to take over Washington dc in any instance would have allowed this possibility. The Europeans knew America's power was growing, and if they didn't intervene shortly, America's strength would continue at unprecedented endless bounties. Had Spain intervened during the American civil war, it would have had a surplus of soldiers as Spain's economy was hit by depression in 1860. The Spanish navy also could not compete in an arms race with the USA as it would hurt the Spanish economy in such an attempt.
Spanish Imperial dreams were now possible. During the mid-19th century, Spain had opportunities to benefit from being an imperial power again historically but could not achieve these means. By the 1870s, it was clear Spain was no longer an empire again.
Spain knew they had to cripple the united states, not just for revenge, but, to stop America's growing might. Intervention in the American Civil war breeds excellent potential to destroy much of America's wealth and prestige, forcing America to repeal the Monroe doctrine and possibly accept a minor territorial loss outside the Confederate States of America being recognized as an independent nation along with her territorial ambitions. The powers that didn't benefit from direct territorial gains, such as the Spanish, would have the north possibly be forced to pay large war reparations to redeem the expenses of Spain's war expenditure, but also for Spain to profit from the war. Spain's economy could better modernize mainly if the civil war turned into a world war and her allies had agreed to subsidize the Spanish military. Additional human resources would remain important in conflicts dealing with Russia and Prussia during the polish war for independence. To make bismarcks empire stillborn could prevent the german empire from ever-rising and at least significantly weaken its potential. A new emergence of patriotic though limited military strength from the American civil war would likely allow a Spanish victory in the Chincha Islands War, granting concession and reparations for the Spanish government. This intervention could include collaborated interest in the powers that helped the confederacy. One example is Mexico which still had close economic ties to Spain during the Mexican-American war, would continue to have a more extraordinary relationship under spains Allie, the french empire, as Maximilian's empire sought more significant European investment, migration, and support.
France and Spain had historically shared ties with the two catholic monarchs, and Napoleon himself helped prompt Spain to be a great power again. Such a victory might allow Spain to have a form of neo-colonialism within some of her former empires. Such accomplishments can allow for confidence and investment within Spain herself and her holdings. The better-off Spain's economy remains, the less likely the confederates will be able to annex Cuba. The Cubans who supported USA annexation were wealthy Cuban planters whose economy relied on American commerce. During the civil war, the island of Cuba sympathized with the confederacy. After the fight initially, the CSA would try to maintain good relationships with the Spanish empire to foster continued good relationships among the Cuban people. This diplomatic policy would change if the CSA felt they had to pick factions for whichever side might support the confederate annexation of Cuba, which is a separate discussion altogether. Regardless of the fate of Cuba, Spain would seek to corporate with her imperial allies to ensure each one's interest was beneficial, primarily in the westward hemisphere. I believe it to be likely if the confederacy was able to annex Cuba, bought sought friendlier trade relationships with the Spanish people to apologize for breaking their friendship for seizing Cuba. It is to be noted while the Cuban people generally disliked spains rule, Puerto Rico was more receptive to old Spain. Had Spain intervened on behalf of the confederate people, this decision would have lowered the souths demand to annex Cuba forcing the south to realize their navy was more jock than Spain's. Spain's meddling in the American civil war would have likely prevented the Spanish-American war due to these European alliances unless the north sought to cooperate with the confederacy to annex Spain's new world island holdings of Cuba,Puerto Rico and possible Dominican republic
In the 1840s, Britain promised protection for the Spanish slave empire to prevent the expansion of American slavery. However, Britain proved to be reluctant to renew the same policy before the next decade and would have allowed a more neutral stance depending on what the CSA asked FR and UK to do.
While it is unlikely that Spain could have a Reconquista of Latin America long, they would be allowed if this didn't contradict their allied interest. Even if an attempt for Spain to war agianst South America tropical illnesses ruled this is impossible. Spain suffered from sickness and lack of sanitation in the Cuban war and her medical prevention/sanitation proved incompetent . Even if such contradictions didn't occur, Britain realized it was best not to go to war against Spain and instead let Spain defeat itself in a foolish advent of defeat. The confederates also knew Spain was the sick man of Europe and once the moment was right they hoped to capitalize on the circumstances by depriving spains Cuba as it would prove to powerless and bungling to deserve such a holding
Conclusion Spain was a weak and declining power, but it could have had reforms to make her a more substantial second-rate power, more in line with Austria or Italy or perhaps Belgium.It had the potential probably to be somewhat stronger off the 2, but it didn't achieve this.
Spain’s autocratic style government would often prevent these reforms and its military was normally a joke
Spain's last chance to be a world power though not a great one necessarily was if she intervened in the American civil war which did not happen. In addition Spain's economy remained inadequate that could have resulted in the benefits of a bailed-out military-industrial complex might have permanently improved the Spanish economy in part do to allied investment. It is difficult to determine the hypotheticals however and Spain's economy nonetheless was not healthy given the inconstancies.
