SinghSong
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Post by SinghSong on Jun 13, 2021 15:58:24 GMT
On 8 November 1939, Adolf Hitler travelled to the Bürgerbräukeller in Munich to commemorate the anniversary of the Beer Hall Putsch, accompanied by a large entourage of other high-ranking Nazis- including Joseph Goebbels, Reinhard Heydrich, Rudolf Hess, Robert Ley, Alfred Rosenberg, Julius Streicher, August Frank, Hermann Esser and Heinrich Himmler. Hitler was welcomed to the platform by Christian Weber, a veteran from the Beer Hall Putsch and the Munich city councillor, and launched giving his speech to the assembled audience with his characteristic fervor, utterly oblivious to the fact that a powerful time bomb was ticking in the pillar directly behind the speaker's podium. This bomb had been placed there by Johann Georg Elser- a carpenter and cabinet maker, member of the left-leaning Federation of Woodworkers Union and of the Red Front Fighters' Association, who'd painstakingly planned and prepared for the attack for the past year, installed the bomb in the early hours of the morning over the course of the past three months, and late the previous night, had opened the bomb chamber to confirm that the clock mechanism was correctly set, before departing Munich by train that morning.
Whilst Hitler had initially cancelled his annual speech at the Bürgerbräukeller, in order to devote his attention to planning the imminent war with France, he'd subsequently changed his mind and decided to attend after all. Unknown to Elser though, since fog was forecast, possibly preventing him from flying back to Berlin the next morning, Hitler decided to return to Berlin the same night, by his private train. And with the Fuhrer's scheduled departure from Munich's main station set for 9:30PM., the start time of the reunion was brought forward by half an hour from 7:30 to 8 PM to accommodate him, with Hitler cutting his speech from the planned two hours (7:30-9:30PM) to a one-hour duration. As a result, Hitler ended his address to the 3000-strong audience of the party faithful at 9:07 PM, with Elser's bomb exploding 13 minutes later at precisely 9:20 PM- by which time, Hitler and his entourage had already left the Bürgerbräukeller, along with all but about 120 members of the audience, who were still lingering at the far end of the Bürgerbräukeller. This bomb was powerful enough to bring down part of the ceiling and roof, caused the gallery and one of the external walls to collapse, killed 7 people immediately, fatally injured another, and injured another 63, 16 of them seriously.
So then, here's a interesting WI scenario to consider- what if, on the night of 7 Nov 1939, Elser sets the timer on his bomb to explode 50 minutes earlier, right in the middle of Hitler's scheduled speech, rather than timing it to go off only 10 minutes before the end of Hitler's scheduled speech? As such, ITTL, Elser's "infernal machine" detonates at 8:30 PM, while Adolf Hitler's just getting into the thick of his speech up on the speaker's podium- interrupting his triumphant address to the Nazi faithful by blowing him to smithereens, as well as either immediately killing, or dealing fatal injuries to, all of the other high-ranking Nazis in his entourage who'd accompanied him to the event (who were seated closest to the bomb, being up on the platform with him), along with 300-400 members of the audience in attendance.
With not only Hitler, but all of these other high-ranking members of the Nazi establishment wiped off the face of the earth as well, who would've taken charge- would it be guaranteed to have been Goering, or are there any other potential candidates who'd have had an outside chance? How would you imagine that the surviving remnants of the pre-established Nazi hierarchy, and the people of Nazi Germany in general, would have reacted to the Bürgerbräukeller Bombing ITTL? And how would the rest of the world have reacted to Hitler, and so many other high-ranking Nazi figures, meeting their demise in such a fashion, at this early juncture- less than two months after the start of WW2, one month to the day after the Fourth Partition of defeated Poland between the Nazis and Soviets, and 3 weeks before the (outbreak of OTL's) Winter War? How differently might WW2 pan out ITTL than it did IOTL?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 13, 2021 21:53:08 GMT
On 8 November 1939, Adolf Hitler travelled to the Bürgerbräukeller in Munich to commemorate the anniversary of the Beer Hall Putsch, accompanied by a large entourage of other high-ranking Nazis- including Joseph Goebbels, Reinhard Heydrich, Rudolf Hess, Robert Ley, Alfred Rosenberg, Julius Streicher, August Frank, Hermann Esser and Heinrich Himmler. Hitler was welcomed to the platform by Christian Weber, a veteran from the Beer Hall Putsch and the Munich city councillor, and launched giving his speech to the assembled audience with his characteristic fervor, utterly oblivious to the fact that a powerful time bomb was ticking in the pillar directly behind the speaker's podium. This bomb had been placed there by Johann Georg Elser- a carpenter and cabinet maker, member of the left-leaning Federation of Woodworkers Union and of the Red Front Fighters' Association, who'd painstakingly planned and prepared for the attack for the past year, installed the bomb in the early hours of the morning over the course of the past three months, and late the previous night, had opened the bomb chamber to confirm that the clock mechanism was correctly set, before departing Munich by train that morning. Whilst Hitler had initially cancelled his annual speech at the Bürgerbräukeller, in order to devote his attention to planning the imminent war with France, he'd subsequently changed his mind and decided to attend after all. Unknown to Elser though, since fog was forecast, possibly preventing him from flying back to Berlin the next morning, Hitler decided to return to Berlin the same night, by his private train. And with the Fuhrer's scheduled departure from Munich's main station set for 9:30PM., the start time of the reunion was brought forward by half an hour from 7:30 to 8 PM to accommodate him, with Hitler cutting his speech from the planned two hours (7:30-9:30PM) to a one-hour duration. As a result, Hitler ended his address to the 3000-strong audience of the party faithful at 9:07 PM, with Elser's bomb exploding 13 minutes later at precisely 9:20 PM- by which time, Hitler and his entourage had already left the Bürgerbräukeller, along with all but about 120 members of the audience, who were still lingering at the far end of the Bürgerbräukeller. This bomb was powerful enough to bring down part of the ceiling and roof, caused the gallery and one of the external walls to collapse, killed 7 people immediately, fatally injured another, and injured another 63, 16 of them seriously. So then, here's a interesting WI scenario to consider- what if, on the night of 7 Nov 1939, Elser sets the timer on his bomb to explode 50 minutes earlier, right in the middle of Hitler's scheduled speech, rather than timing it to go off only 10 minutes before the end of Hitler's scheduled speech? As such, ITTL, Elser's "infernal machine" detonates at 8:30 PM, while Adolf Hitler's just getting into the thick of his speech up on the speaker's podium- interrupting his triumphant address to the Nazi faithful by blowing him to smithereens, as well as either immediately killing, or dealing fatal injuries to, all of the other high-ranking Nazis in his entourage who'd accompanied him to the event (who were seated closest to the bomb, being up on the platform with him), along with 300-400 members of the audience in attendance. With not only Hitler, but all of these other high-ranking members of the Nazi establishment wiped off the face of the earth as well, who would've taken charge- would it be guaranteed to have been Goering, or are there any other potential candidates who'd have had an outside chance? How would you imagine that the surviving remnants of the pre-established Nazi hierarchy, and the people of Nazi Germany in general, would have reacted to the Bürgerbräukeller Bombing ITTL? And how would the rest of the world have reacted to Hitler, and so many other high-ranking Nazi figures, meeting their demise in such a fashion, at this early juncture- less than two months after the start of WW2, one month to the day after the Fourth Partition of defeated Poland between the Nazis and Soviets, and 3 weeks before the (outbreak of OTL's) Winter War? How differently might WW2 pan out ITTL than it did IOTL?
Definitely an interesting scenario but I suspect bloody difficult to tell what will happen. One danger is that, with the Nazis having been so 'successful' at this point Hitler and his regime could end up being seen as a martyr by many Germans. A lot might depend on what sort of government rises to power but there's the possibility that some compromise would be worked out between them and the western allies, which would basically mean sacrificing Poland. It would also depend on how the new German government acted in the following months/decades. It can't continue the mad military build up without further conquests even if the war is formally ended but does it still seek expansion to the east now it directly borders the Soviet Union?
If there is a quick end to the war in Europe that makes it unlikely that Italy will do anything rash unless whatever government in Berlin is only looking for time. Which leaves Japan very isolated in the Far East.
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SinghSong
Petty Officer 2nd Class
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Post by SinghSong on Jun 17, 2021 12:53:42 GMT
Definitely an interesting scenario but I suspect bloody difficult to tell what will happen. One danger is that, with the Nazis having been so 'successful' at this point Hitler and his regime could end up being seen as a martyr by many Germans. A lot might depend on what sort of government rises to power but there's the possibility that some compromise would be worked out between them and the western allies, which would basically mean sacrificing Poland. It would also depend on how the new German government acted in the following months/decades. It can't continue the mad military build up without further conquests even if the war is formally ended but does it still seek expansion to the east now it directly borders the Soviet Union? If there is a quick end to the war in Europe that makes it unlikely that Italy will do anything rash unless whatever government in Berlin is only looking for time. Which leaves Japan very isolated in the Far East. Who do you reckon would be the most likely sort of government to rise to power in the aftermath of the bombing, then? Might there be the risk of the new Nazi regime becoming even more authoritarian, extremist and militaristic then, if the 'martyr effect' does come into play? Regarding further expansionism to the east, and a potential compromise between them and the Western Allies- if Elser's still caught and apprehended in a failed attempt to escape across the Swiss border roughly 24hrs later, as he was IOTL (probably more likely ITTL, given the increased security in the aftermath of the Fuhrer and so many Nazi leaders' assassinations- either that, or his being shot dead, and/or being beaten to death during his interrogation by the Gestapo), with his identity as a member of the left-leaning Federation of Woodworkers Union, the Red Front Fighters' Association, and staunch voter for the Communist Party (KPD) until their forced dissolution in 1933, being brought to light- then given Goering's (the most likely surviving high-ranking Nazi candidate to take the reins by some margin, having been publicly designated by Hitler to succeed him as Führer of all Germany "if anything should befall me" on the 1st September, with the second alternative, Rudolf Hess, having been killed in the bombing along with Hitler ITTL) markedly less hostile stance towards the Western Allies than Hitler's, how likely do you think it'd be that the Nazis' official version of the story (that the culprit had been a member of Otto Strasser's 'Black Front' organization, who'd been assigned to carry out the deed and funded by foreign agents of the British Secret Intelligence Service) gets tweaked to blame the Soviets instead? And if it does, with Stalin proclaimed to have been responsible for the assassinations of Hitler and so many other Nazi leaders in the German media (with the propagandists instructed to adopt a 'back-stab' narrative)- wouldn't the new Nazi leadership have then been obligated to immediately dissolve the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and declare war upon the Soviet Union? If they (most likely Goering) offered an armistice to the Western Allies, in this situation, might any of them (Chamberlain and Daladier in particular) be inclined to accept it? And in this scenario, how would Stalin and the Soviet Union have reacted? Would the Winter War (which kicked off after a false-flag operation by the Soviets to give themselves a cassus-belli, only a couple of weeks later IOTL) have been called off, or would it have still gone ahead ITTL (which if, as several historians now claim, Stalin's objective was indeed to secure Leningrad's flank from a possible German invasion through Finland, seems more likely than not)? And if it does, with the Nazi Germans near-certain to condemn the invasion of Finland ITTL instead of condoning it as they did IOTL (which created domestic problems for Hitler, with Finland's close ties to Germany leading to widespread opposition to Germany's pro-Soviet policies from the German populace, even along Nazi Party stalwarts, making this one of the most ideologically and politically-difficult aspects of the pact for the German government to justify), joining the Western Allies, Italy and Sweden (and to a lesser extent, Hungary and the USA) in doing so, how would you see the conflict progressing from there? For instance, regarding Japan in the Far East, mightn't they still wind up being a member of TTL's equivalent to the Tripartite/Berlin Pact, directed primarily at the Soviet Union rather than the United States? And with the War in Europe increasingly taking the shape of 'the Soviets vs Everyone Else', mightn't the Japanese have far greater incentive to end their ceasefire with the Soviets (signed on the 15th September 1939 and taking effect from the 16th, after the Battles of Khalkhin Gol, which freed the Soviets from a threat in the Soviet Far East and enabled Stalin to proceed with the Soviet invasion of Poland on the very next day), and resume the Soviet–Japanese border conflicts, with the Japanese joining forces with Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union (and the Japanese Army clique effectively winning out over the Naval clique in their power struggles as a result) in an opportunistic effort to conquer Outer Manchuria(/'Manchukuo') and Mongolia? What do you think? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 18, 2021 10:48:11 GMT
Definitely an interesting scenario but I suspect bloody difficult to tell what will happen. One danger is that, with the Nazis having been so 'successful' at this point Hitler and his regime could end up being seen as a martyr by many Germans. A lot might depend on what sort of government rises to power but there's the possibility that some compromise would be worked out between them and the western allies, which would basically mean sacrificing Poland. It would also depend on how the new German government acted in the following months/decades. It can't continue the mad military build up without further conquests even if the war is formally ended but does it still seek expansion to the east now it directly borders the Soviet Union? If there is a quick end to the war in Europe that makes it unlikely that Italy will do anything rash unless whatever government in Berlin is only looking for time. Which leaves Japan very isolated in the Far East. Who do you reckon would be the most likely sort of government to rise to power in the aftermath of the bombing, then? Might there be the risk of the new Nazi regime becoming even more authoritarian, extremist and militaristic then, if the 'martyr effect' does come into play? Regarding further expansionism to the east, and a potential compromise between them and the Western Allies- if Elser's still caught and apprehended in a failed attempt to escape across the Swiss border roughly 24hrs later, as he was IOTL (probably more likely ITTL, given the increased security in the aftermath of the Fuhrer and so many Nazi leaders' assassinations- either that, or his being shot dead, and/or being beaten to death during his interrogation by the Gestapo), with his identity as a member of the left-leaning Federation of Woodworkers Union, the Red Front Fighters' Association, and staunch voter for the Communist Party (KPD) until their forced dissolution in 1933, being brought to light- then given Goering's (the most likely surviving high-ranking Nazi candidate to take the reins by some margin, having been publicly designated by Hitler to succeed him as Führer of all Germany "if anything should befall me" on the 1st September, with the second alternative, Rudolf Hess, having been killed in the bombing along with Hitler ITTL) markedly less hostile stance towards the Western Allies than Hitler's, how likely do you think it'd be that the Nazis' official version of the story (that the culprit had been a member of Otto Strasser's 'Black Front' organization, who'd been assigned to carry out the deed and funded by foreign agents of the British Secret Intelligence Service) gets tweaked to blame the Soviets instead? And if it does, with Stalin proclaimed to have been responsible for the assassinations of Hitler and so many other Nazi leaders in the German media (with the propagandists instructed to adopt a 'back-stab' narrative)- wouldn't the new Nazi leadership have then been obligated to immediately dissolve the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and declare war upon the Soviet Union? If they (most likely Goering) offered an armistice to the Western Allies, in this situation, might any of them (Chamberlain and Daladier in particular) be inclined to accept it? And in this scenario, how would Stalin and the Soviet Union have reacted? Would the Winter War (which kicked off after a false-flag operation by the Soviets to give themselves a cassus-belli, only a couple of weeks later IOTL) have been called off, or would it have still gone ahead ITTL (which if, as several historians now claim, Stalin's objective was indeed to secure Leningrad's flank from a possible German invasion through Finland, seems more likely than not)? And if it does, with the Nazi Germans near-certain to condemn the invasion of Finland ITTL instead of condoning it as they did IOTL (which created domestic problems for Hitler, with Finland's close ties to Germany leading to widespread opposition to Germany's pro-Soviet policies from the German populace, even along Nazi Party stalwarts, making this one of the most ideologically and politically-difficult aspects of the pact for the German government to justify), joining the Western Allies, Italy and Sweden (and to a lesser extent, Hungary and the USA) in doing so, how would you see the conflict progressing from there? For instance, regarding Japan in the Far East, mightn't they still wind up being a member of TTL's equivalent to the Tripartite/Berlin Pact, directed primarily at the Soviet Union rather than the United States? And with the War in Europe increasingly taking the shape of 'the Soviets vs Everyone Else', mightn't the Japanese have far greater incentive to end their ceasefire with the Soviets (signed on the 15th September 1939 and taking effect from the 16th, after the Battles of Khalkhin Gol, which freed the Soviets from a threat in the Soviet Far East and enabled Stalin to proceed with the Soviet invasion of Poland on the very next day), and resume the Soviet–Japanese border conflicts, with the Japanese joining forces with Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union (and the Japanese Army clique effectively winning out over the Naval clique in their power struggles as a result) in an opportunistic effort to conquer Outer Manchuria(/'Manchukuo') and Mongolia? What do you think?
If he survives then Goring is very likely to be the new leader given how much power he has accumulated and the deaths of so many other leading party figures.
The big unknown would be the attitude of the western allies. There were clear desires by some, such as Halifax, for peace with Hitler in the summer of 1940 but that was after the fall of France made it look like a victory over Nazi Germany - especially since it was allied with Italy and had a de-facto alliance with the Soviets. Given the deep distrust of the Nazis and concerns about the plight of the Poles plus the feeling that 'Hitler has missed the bus' as Chamberlain notoriously put it they might rejected any approach from Goring. If so the war might go on, although how Germany will fight and [mis]manage the economy with Goring rather than Hitler at the helm would be difficult to say. You might see a deadlock in the low countries rather than a quick German victory in which case there could be a long grind developing. In that case Goring will blame the west for Hitler's death as OTL for the assassination attempt.
If the west does come to terms, possibly thinking they can boost their defences while Germany is fighting in the east - as I doubt they will trust the Nazis to actually honour their word and the Nazis haven't yet committed to blaming the west for the assassinations then they could well blame the Soviets, which is likely to lead to a war between the two. Probably the Winter War will commence as I doubt a settlement would be agreed between Germany and the west that quickly. Which would probably be bad for the Soviets but then Germany isn't really in a position for a massive attack on Russia, especially in the middle of winter. Hitler was only with some difficulty persuaded not to attack through the Low Counties in this month which would likely have been a disaster for the Germans given they will still have been weakened by the fighting in Poland and a winter campaign would have been bad enough there let alone in the east.
As such and even with the mess the Red Army was in in 1939/40 its not going to be a walk over for the Germans, even if with the end of war in the west they have the blockade lifted. They have less forces without the additional time and loot from the western conquests and also their desperately short of foreign exchange for actually buying items from outside their area of control. They may still get some support from Romania and Hungary as well as Finland of course.
Japan may look north but its just as you said suffered a serious defeat and also is heavily tied down in China where the quick war they were expecting has become a long slog. Furthermore with the end of fighting [at least for the moment] in the west this frees up the western democracies to a large degree. Which is a significant deterrent to heading south but they also want those southern resources and they can expect a lot more aid from the western powers to China. Furthermore they won't be able to cut off supply routes through FIC and Burma. I suspect that assuming peace in the west and a Nazi-Soviet war then Japan will sit back for the moment and see what happens. If the Germans start making deep inroads in 1940 then IJA is going to be screaming for war in Siberia and under those circumstances might well get their way. Its possible that they might decide to make some sort of peace with China but that could be difficult as both they have committed so much to its conquest and also an attempt to negotiate a deal without a full withdraw is likely to be rejected by the KMT. As such I would expect a continued Sino-Japanese war with greater problems for Japan despite some successes and if they do go into Siberia then, unless the Soviets collapse totally that would drain resources from the China theatre.
The other alternative might be that they avoid war with the Soviets and head south at some point. It would be tougher with the key targets more heavily defended but they might decide they want those resources and that they can take them. Possibly with the US staying more isolationist they could decide to only attack the European colonies and seeking to bypass the Philippines, relying on public opinion to prevent the US from intervening.
The other wild card would be Mussolini. Does he still decide on an adventure like Greece, possibly to seek to improve his prestige? If so its likely that the western allies would respond. In which case can Goring accept the replacement of Mussolini by a democratic government. Although if Germany is still heavily engaged in Russia he may have no choice.
There's a hell of a lot of things that could happen. Plus if Britain makes peace I think a general election is due so that could be interesting.
Steve
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