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Post by TheRomanSlayer on May 1, 2021 6:51:09 GMT
Although one of my main portions of the TL that I wanted to rewrite involves a more improved Russian Empire, my main question in this case would be this:
1) What would it take for Russia to have difficulty in expanding into the rest of Eastern Europe? Although Poland-Lithuania would be the obvious candidate for being the barrier that would hinder Russian plans to expand into the areas of the former Kievan Rus, another good candidate would have been Sweden, as its control of the Baltic would have made it difficult for Russia to access its goods into the European market, which might force them to develop the tiny village of Kola, or develop Arkhangelsk a lot earlier.
2) How would a Russian expansion into Asia play out? Would they be more interested in getting their warm water port in the Pacific, or would they be interested in creating a series of statelets that are more or less Russian puppets in a similar fashion to how it conquered Central Asia? I honestly think that Manchuria, with its size and resources, would have been essential to this kind of plan.
3) The most important part would be: what would it take for Russia to at least develop its manufacturing capabilities? IOTL, the small scale manufacturing might have begun with Peter the Great, but the real challenge would have been to develop Siberia into a suitable, inhabitable region, where they could realistically draw their population from, in terms of expanding into the Pacific, and creating another potential population center in the Manchuria region. In addition, what would it take for a less brutal serfdom to take place in Russia?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 1, 2021 10:17:43 GMT
Although one of my main portions of the TL that I wanted to rewrite involves a more improved Russian Empire, my main question in this case would be this: 1) What would it take for Russia to have difficulty in expanding into the rest of Eastern Europe? Although Poland-Lithuania would be the obvious candidate for being the barrier that would hinder Russian plans to expand into the areas of the former Kievan Rus, another good candidate would have been Sweden, as its control of the Baltic would have made it difficult for Russia to access its goods into the European market, which might force them to develop the tiny village of Kola, or develop Arkhangelsk a lot earlier. 2) How would a Russian expansion into Asia play out? Would they be more interested in getting their warm water port in the Pacific, or would they be interested in creating a series of statelets that are more or less Russian puppets in a similar fashion to how it conquered Central Asia? I honestly think that Manchuria, with its size and resources, would have been essential to this kind of plan. 3) The most important part would be: what would it take for Russia to at least develop its manufacturing capabilities? IOTL, the small scale manufacturing might have begun with Peter the Great, but the real challenge would have been to develop Siberia into a suitable, inhabitable region, where they could realistically draw their population from, in terms of expanding into the Pacific, and creating another potential population center in the Manchuria region. In addition, what would it take for a less brutal serfdom to take place in Russia?
To be honest without massive climatic change or genetic engineering I can't see Siberia supplanting Russia west of the Urals as its primary centre of population. [Well unless their driven out of the west by some conqueror which would probably nullify their capacity to conquer much in Siberia.]
Having said that: 1) The best option might be a prolonged Swedish-Polish alliance. Which might be possible without the Reformation or if Sweden stayed Catholic. They both had the same dynasty for much of this period but without the religious differences its possible that they could have had a friendly alliance against common threats - i.e. Russia, HRE, possibly Denmark. You would have to work out a settlement on provinces in the Baltic region and would have problems with Catholic-Orthodox relations unless both Catholic states are pretty tolerant. However it should be possible.
2) Assuming that Russia isn't able to manage its OTL successes against Poland and Sweden then its probably going to initially look more to the Black Sea than the Pacific as an economic outlet. The Pacific is simply too far away across thousands of miles of barren wilderness. Manchuria is a good base on the Pacific, much better than what they have but its the home of the Manchu's so you would need to avoid that dynasty arising. Just possibly Russian involvement in helping the Ming defeat the Manchus could leave them with a base in Siberia as a fief of the Ming which gradually becomes predominantly Russian and is able to fully exert its independence at some stage. However if anything else its probably more likely to end up as an independent Russian state given its so far away from Moscow both in distance and in travel time and difficulty in communicating between the two regions, let alone Moscow exerted power power. It really needs at least a railway and telegram for a Russian inhabited Manchuria to be a secure part of the empire.
3) To get a major social change or greater technological development is going to be very difficult. Initially the need for centralised control against foreign threats - the assorted eastern nomadic groups, then Poland and Sweden - and simply the size of the state, gave an early incentive for an autocratic system. Not sure if any of the other Russian states were any more decentralised than Moscow other than possibly Novgorod, which was a merchant republic but was even more orientated towards the west. Possibly if Poland hadn't gained control of much of the Ukrainian steppes and some state had emerged around there which had somehow thrown back the Mongols and centralised Russia around it then its greater trade and agricultural basis might have made it less autocratic but then its probably even more likely to look to the west and less to the east.
As such with some butterflies I could see Russia conquering and possibly even settling Manchuria, although its always going to be exposed to a powerful China, or even Japan. However its centre of population or power moving east of the Urals seems extremely unlikely and ditto with it becoming less autocratic. Possibly if the Decembrist_revolt had somehow succeeded or a powerful liberal Czar had had a long range and managed to defeat the more conservative elements in the country you can get something less, possibly a lot less oppressive but again that's likely to look even more to the west than OTL. Also you could end up with something like the French revolution developing into a brutal regime.
Is the main aim to move more people towards Siberia or to have Russia less interested in central and eastern Europe? If the latter then possibly could a more successful drive south work? If somehow a rising Russia manages to gain control of Constantinople and then possibly much of Anatolia and Iran you could have a Russia looking more towards the Med and Indian Ocean. That would seem more likely to work as a possibly long term basis than pushing from Siberia into Manchuria and northern China.
Anyway hope this helps
Steve
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on May 1, 2021 17:42:11 GMT
1) An alliance would be doable, although you also need to find a way to kill off the Protestant branch of the Vasas before Sigismund III takes over as King of both the PLC and Sweden. Although having him as king of both states would have been too much, having him divide the domains among his Catholic-raised sons would cement the alliance.
2) I would say that I agree with you on this part, although an earlier conquest of Siberia might mitigate this. However, the problem, as it is always pointed out, would be the population numbers. Alternatively, one could either prop up the Ming, or have a different dynasty arise to replace it, if the Ming were to collapse. However, another native Chinese dynasty might be more feasible than say, a return of the Yuan Dynasty, as the Ming spent more time and money fighting the Northern Yuan. As for the Manchus/Jurchens, one could kill off Nurhaci, or a different unification of the Jurchens may occur in this case (Nurhaci belonged to the Aisin Gioro clan of the Jianzhou Jurchens). I could say having the Yeren or Haixi Jurchens play a major role in its unification would be one idea. In addition, this could also lead to a possible attempt at Christianizing the Jurchen tribes by converting them to Eastern Orthodoxy, through the Russians, but again, this might be difficult without a base of operations in the Russian Far East (the site of OTL Albazin fortress would be a good location for such a thing)
3) I was wondering as to how Russia could have adopted more influences in terms of governance and customs from Asia, especially China, for that matter. OTL Russia has already copied a lot of Mongol influences there, so I wonder if it was more plausible for the Russians to adopt the trappings of Chinese style governance.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 2, 2021 11:22:10 GMT
1) An alliance would be doable, although you also need to find a way to kill off the Protestant branch of the Vasas before Sigismund III takes over as King of both the PLC and Sweden. Although having him as king of both states would have been too much, having him divide the domains among his Catholic-raised sons would cement the alliance. 2) I would say that I agree with you on this part, although an earlier conquest of Siberia might mitigate this. However, the problem, as it is always pointed out, would be the population numbers. Alternatively, one could either prop up the Ming, or have a different dynasty arise to replace it, if the Ming were to collapse. However, another native Chinese dynasty might be more feasible than say, a return of the Yuan Dynasty, as the Ming spent more time and money fighting the Northern Yuan. As for the Manchus/Jurchens, one could kill off Nurhaci, or a different unification of the Jurchens may occur in this case (Nurhaci belonged to the Aisin Gioro clan of the Jianzhou Jurchens). I could say having the Yeren or Haixi Jurchens play a major role in its unification would be one idea. In addition, this could also lead to a possible attempt at Christianizing the Jurchen tribes by converting them to Eastern Orthodoxy, through the Russians, but again, this might be difficult without a base of operations in the Russian Far East (the site of OTL Albazin fortress would be a good location for such a thing) 3) I was wondering as to how Russia could have adopted more influences in terms of governance and customs from Asia, especially China, for that matter. OTL Russia has already copied a lot of Mongol influences there, so I wonder if it was more plausible for the Russians to adopt the trappings of Chinese style governance.
On the last part while it might be more formal, with say a professional bureaucracy it would still be highly autocratic. Plus given the hostility towards 'Asiatic' ideas after the period of Mongol dominance I wonder if there would be an aversion to more foreign ideas from the east. Although some link up with either the Ming or a successor state could make the idea more attractive. It would really need someone who gains a lot of influence in Moscow later on spending time out in Siberia however. Which since that's a trip of probably a year or more either way and the initial 'settlement' was by fur traders, isn't likely to be a royal prince or someone like that. However could be that a ruler who's concerned about the established elite could look for an outsider, such as a successful fur trader/diplomat as a more reliable person for an high rank in government and personal adviser. In which case possibly establishing a professional bureaucracy could be seen as attractive to reduce the power of the boyers and other aristocrats.
Steve
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on May 2, 2021 19:35:53 GMT
There are several examples of Mongol influence on Russia that wasn't rejected outright, namely that the Russians adopted the Yam route system as a means of efficient communication among the provinces. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yam_(route)In this article, parts of what was then medieval Russia had conducted a census, which was introduced to the Mongols, and was not fully adopted by Western Europe until the 19th century. Moreover, some of the autocracy that we see IOTL on Russia did come from the Chinese, through the Mongols (the Mongols themselves borrowed a lot of Chinese habits in order to rule their empire). On the other hand, I agree with you that there could be either the Ming or some other Chinese dynasty that could introduce their kind of government to Russia. Although it might be called the 'Celestial Empire with Russian characteristics', if Russian autocracy would be shaped in the Chinese mold, though without the tributary system. geohistory.today/mongol-empire-effects-russia/I would think that a fur trader, or an influential merchant who was born in East Asia that could have entered service in the Russian court would be the most likely candidate for convincing the Tsar to adopt more trappings of Chinese style governance. Given that in this scenario, the Russians would expand more into Asia instead of Europe, I think that maybe a highly influential Jurchen diplomat or merchant from a minor noble family would be a good example. Another good example would have been either a Chinese or a Korean 'Mandarin' (bureaucrat) who fell out of favor, and is in a dire need to flee from his home, as far away as he can. Bloody hell, I can imagine TTL's Russia being operated by Russian Mandarins that would make their bureaucracy an even worse nightmare than that of OTL Russia's! |
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