Post by eurofed on Apr 23, 2021 16:50:40 GMT
A thought experiment: how different would have been the equivalent of the Versailles Treaty after a broad analogue of WWI with mostly recognizable CP and Entente coalitions where the Habsburg empire was long dead and a stronger Italy took its place in the CP? Italy switching sides was a pro-CP game changer for the conflict, even more so ITTL where a more successful unification process made it rather stronger in economic and military terms and a first-rate great power. However, for the sake of the scenario let's assume the Entente managed to reap a Phyrric victory against all odds thanks to early American intervention, an uncanny degree of good luck, a French reverse Plan Schliffen, and various minor actors switching sides to the Entente. Russia fell to the Reds much the usual way. The USA returned to isolationism soon after the end of the conflict as usual.
ITTL Italy got stronger after unification thanks to a longer-living Cavour, reaping a decisive victory in the Third War of Independence. This prompted the Prussians to seek more ambitious peace terms and the Hungarians to rise up in rebellion. The Habsburg empire collapsed, paving the way to a complete unification of Germany and Italy in 1866-70, the independence of Hungary-Croatia, and Russian annexation of Galicia. Their example drove the unification of Scandinavia. Italy sided again with Prussia/Germany in the Franco-Prussian War, helping the two allies reap another decisive victory and cementing the CP strategic partnership that included Hungary-Croatia as a junior partner. The Entente coalition of Britain, France, and Russia formed more or less the usual way. It managed to pull Turkey and Spain on its side, as well as Romania for the usual reasons. ITTL Serbia and Bulgaria formed a 'Yugoslav' union with prevalent Russian influence and joined the Entente. This turn of events drove Greece to join the CP. Scandinavia too joined the CP because of a the rogue commander of the Russian Baltic fleet waging a preventive attack on its fleet. ITTL it was France with the reluctant support of Britain that violated the neutrality of Belgium and the Netherlands. Early recourse of the Germans and the Italians to unrestricted submarine warfare and devious British manipulations allowed a pro-Entente US President to mislead his country into intervention, despite all the bad PR the Entente had earned due to its aggressions of neutrals. In the end, however, the Americans changed their minds to deem the intervention had been a disastrous decision, they had wasted their blood and money fighting for unworthy allies and quite possibly the wrong side, and they retreated back to isolationism soon after the peace deal.
To sum it up:
CP: Germany, Italy, Hungary-Croatia, Belgium, Netherlands, Greece, Scandinavia.
Entente: Britain, France, Russia, Spain, Portugal, Romania, Serbia-Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, the USA.
ITTL Japan modernized slightly earlier and was able to exploit this head start to defeat China and Russia and annex Taiwan, Korea, Greater Manchuria, Sakhalin/Karafuto, and Hainan by the latter half of the 19th century. This enabled a successful political and to a lesser degree cultural assimilation of the Koreans and other native peoples in the overseas territories, even if some important cultural distinctiveness persisted. Early Japanese control of Greater Manchuria and the insular territories allowed preventing or removing any significant Han Chinese and Russian settlement. Japanese and Korean immigrants took their place, consolidating the grip of the Japanese Empire on these areas. The Japanese avoided binding alliance commitments wih the European powers, and became a wild card in this version of WWI. In the end, they opportunistically backstabbed the CP to seize the Dutch East Indies, and later Russia when it fell into revolution and civil war to grab the Transbaikal.
ITTL Italy got stronger after unification thanks to a longer-living Cavour, reaping a decisive victory in the Third War of Independence. This prompted the Prussians to seek more ambitious peace terms and the Hungarians to rise up in rebellion. The Habsburg empire collapsed, paving the way to a complete unification of Germany and Italy in 1866-70, the independence of Hungary-Croatia, and Russian annexation of Galicia. Their example drove the unification of Scandinavia. Italy sided again with Prussia/Germany in the Franco-Prussian War, helping the two allies reap another decisive victory and cementing the CP strategic partnership that included Hungary-Croatia as a junior partner. The Entente coalition of Britain, France, and Russia formed more or less the usual way. It managed to pull Turkey and Spain on its side, as well as Romania for the usual reasons. ITTL Serbia and Bulgaria formed a 'Yugoslav' union with prevalent Russian influence and joined the Entente. This turn of events drove Greece to join the CP. Scandinavia too joined the CP because of a the rogue commander of the Russian Baltic fleet waging a preventive attack on its fleet. ITTL it was France with the reluctant support of Britain that violated the neutrality of Belgium and the Netherlands. Early recourse of the Germans and the Italians to unrestricted submarine warfare and devious British manipulations allowed a pro-Entente US President to mislead his country into intervention, despite all the bad PR the Entente had earned due to its aggressions of neutrals. In the end, however, the Americans changed their minds to deem the intervention had been a disastrous decision, they had wasted their blood and money fighting for unworthy allies and quite possibly the wrong side, and they retreated back to isolationism soon after the peace deal.
To sum it up:
CP: Germany, Italy, Hungary-Croatia, Belgium, Netherlands, Greece, Scandinavia.
Entente: Britain, France, Russia, Spain, Portugal, Romania, Serbia-Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, the USA.
ITTL Japan modernized slightly earlier and was able to exploit this head start to defeat China and Russia and annex Taiwan, Korea, Greater Manchuria, Sakhalin/Karafuto, and Hainan by the latter half of the 19th century. This enabled a successful political and to a lesser degree cultural assimilation of the Koreans and other native peoples in the overseas territories, even if some important cultural distinctiveness persisted. Early Japanese control of Greater Manchuria and the insular territories allowed preventing or removing any significant Han Chinese and Russian settlement. Japanese and Korean immigrants took their place, consolidating the grip of the Japanese Empire on these areas. The Japanese avoided binding alliance commitments wih the European powers, and became a wild card in this version of WWI. In the end, they opportunistically backstabbed the CP to seize the Dutch East Indies, and later Russia when it fell into revolution and civil war to grab the Transbaikal.