Napoleon becomes Emperor of the French, Germans, and Italians

I am skeptical myself the Continental System was a winning strategy for Napoleon. Apparently it caused him more problems than it solved. Since this topic is all about him making winning choices in a manner that leads to united Europe since the early 19th century, we can certainly explore alternatives about that too. My scenario does include the idea of dropping the CS as a bad idea and replacing with a strategy that fosters an EU-style continental economic union, industrialization of Western and Central Europe backed by a tariff system, and replacement of British goods with European ones in the continental market. If history of trade and industrialization is any guide, it suggests this kind of strategy would be much more successful than the CS blockade at hitting the British economically without too much domestic resistance in Europe and fostering independence of Europe from their trade. If necessary, I can reword the scenario to state Napoleon has this kind of insight from the beginning and drops the CS notion, instead pursuing the above strategy.

However, I am persuaded that even with no CS, Napoleon should wipe out Portugal, since it was too pro-British. His key mistake in the Iberian theater was to enforce a regime change in Spain when Spanish society was not yet ready to accept it. If subsequent history of Spain with various liberal revolutions is any guide, things would have been very different in a decade or two.

Yes, Russia was at best a fair-weather friend, at worst a potential aggressor. However, it does not matter much. Dropping enforcement of the CS would certainly tone down reasons for Russian hostility somewhat. Otherwise, the scenario describes what I deem a winning strategy to deal with Alexandrine Russia. If it stays not overly hostile, lure it into further collaboration by offering cooperation to dismantle the Ottoman Empire. If it looks like it is turning hostile, pick a defensive strategy and fight the Russian army in Eastern Europe where the logistic situation is favorable to Napoleon. He beat them w/o much difficulty this way in 1805-07, he can do it again with ease with an intact and well-supplied Grande Armee.



TTL neo-Carolingian strategy is precisely aimed to turn the Napoleonic Empire into an EU-style system that can draw a sufficient degree of support from the Western and Central European peoples to endure without much need for military coercion (by 19th century standards) once the Austrian and Prussian backstabbers are wiped out and pacification sets in. Over time, the Pan-European Grande Armee is only going to require the resources necessary to keep Britain and Russia at bay, discourage radical revolutionaries, oversee the dismantlement of the Ottoman Empire (alone or in cooperation with Russia) and support colonial expansion.

Yes, building up a fleet capable of taking on the Royal Navy is going to be a serious effort, but far from impossible or exhausting if you harness the pooled resources of industrializing Western and Central Europe. It is going to be necessary if the British still refuse to make peace on Napoleon’s terms once Western and Central Europe are pacified and Russia is cowed, defeated, or won over. Napoleonic Europe cannot forever tolerate a British blockade of its trade with the rest of the world. I am not sure how much time it might take, but I am confident that Napoleonic Europe can out-build Britain in the naval field and no matter how skilled the British sailors, they cannot realistically defeat a combined Franco-German-Italian-Spanish fleet. England/Britain alone has never been able of doing that in the last two millennia. The technology gap is going to close and past a point, quantity has a quality all its own.



In this scenario, he is doing exactly that. However, I am persuaded the Napoleonic order is never going to be truly stable and secure unless the Austrian and Prussian backstabbers are wiped out. Moreover, the OTL settlement was too awkward and unbalanced. The continental core of France, Germany, and Italy had to be rebuilt and bound together in a neo-Carolingian, EU-style system that ensures an adequate balance between imperial unity and all major actors feeling they have a decent place at the table. This is also necessary to defuse the potential threat of ethnic-linguistic nationalism down the line and re-orient the ideological trajectory in favor of civic nationalism and the growth of a Pan-European identity. The position of client states is more suitable to the periphery of Iberia, Poland, Hungary, and Scandinavia, at least until the influence of the core has changed them enough to make them suitable for, and accepting of, full political union.



Keeping Russia on side by offering it favorable trade terms and cooperation for expansion against the Ottoman Empire is potentially quite doable. It depends on whether the Tsar can accept the demise of Austria and Prussia in good grace and Napoleonic hegemony of Western and Central Europe as an inevitable fact. I am downright skeptical the British are going to make peace on these terms unless they are forced to, or at least they come to acknowledge the new European order is here to stay and beyond their ability to destabilize or undermine.

Yes, once Britain is forced to make peace one way or another, and Napoleonic Europe has rebuilt its naval power, the latter is going to become a mighty rival for London in the colonial field. Almost surely the British are going to keep India, and ITTL they lost Canada in the ARW, but East Asia and Southeast Asia are going to be hotly contested. One way or another, the British are going to be expelled fom the Med. Their control of Gibraltar and Malta has its days numbered against an industrializing, united Europe that is building up its naval power. The region is going to become an European lake or possibly split between European and Russian spheres of influence. North Africa is the natural first target for European colonialism, and with the pooled demographic resources of Western and Central Europe, the Napoleonic Empire has the means to engage in extensive settler colonization to Europeanize the region. For various reasons, the Ottoman Empire is going to be incompatible with the new European order. It shall be inevitably expelled from the Balkans sooner rather than later, and in all likelihood dismantled and partitioned. It only remains to be seen if its undertakers shall be Europe, Russia, or both acting in concert. 

If a French dominated continent is to thrive avoiding direct confrontation with Great Britain is a must, but Napoleon will have to break Europe of its British habit.

France could make use of her expansive colonial possessions for corn, cotton, wood and other raw materials. The British Empire worked by the colonies sending raw materials to Great Britain and Great Britain sent the finished product back to the colonies. France could do something similar this would reduce Europe's reliance on Great Britain. To deal with Great Britain Napoleon would have to turn to diplomacy. Give London something she wants - Hanover - with guaranteed unrestricted access to the continent Great Britain will be subdued and would more than likely not turn to Portugal.

Napoleon would have to take control of the Italian and German states to form a core block. However I am unsure as to how imperialism could be converted to an EU style nation.

I am not sure if Napoleon really wanted the title of Holy Roman Emperor, since the prestige of the title has declined. Moreover, Francis II had dissolved the Holy Roman Empire in order to prevent Napoleon from taking that very same title, and its dissolution had actually worked to Napoleon's advantage since he could create new duchies and entities at will.

While the Continental System was damaging to British trade, didn't the French tried import substitution? While I knew that might have failed, I would have thought that Napoleon could have seriously attempted to perfect import substitution as a way of creating his empire's manufacturing capabilities, like what the Germans did later on when the German Empire arose.

What has been dissolved may be restored in a modified form, esp. since Francis II's action was of rather dubious legality to begin with w/o the assent of the Imperial Diet. Napoleon may well decide to declare the dissolution, when combined with the dismantlement and partition of Austria and Prussia, was Francis II's de facto abdication and it left the HRE in a state of abeyance. He may use the same template he used for France that combined ancient regime and post-revolutionary sources to legitimize his rule of Germany and Italy. I.e. make the princes of the surviving German and Italian states elect him Holy Roman Emperor and King of the Germans and the Italians, and call up a constituent assembly. Make this assembly of German and Italian representatives approve unification and constitutional reform of Germany and Italy as federal states with the Bonaparte dynasty on the throne. Make the representatives of all three nations establish a union. Let the process be confirmed by plebiscites in France, Germany, and Italy.



This was the road to take, and it is going to work with the right policies (creation of a Western and Central European economic and monetary union) if we look at the examples of the USA, the EU, Germany, and Italy. However, it is gonna take some time. Factories do not spring overnight, but, with the right economic incentives, they do in a few years, and may spread to cover the landscape in a decade or two.