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Post by american2006 on Feb 2, 2021 18:47:26 GMT
So, as countries do form occasionally, the last one I believe was in 2012 when South Sudan became independent, this thread is to predict the next country to become independent.
So, for myself, I doubt it will be Quebec as the calls for Québécois independence have gone down. It could be Scotland should say, the 2024 UK elections result in Labour and SNP forming a coalition government. Another possibility is a more widely recognized Somaliland. Kurdistan is another possibility.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 2, 2021 18:50:09 GMT
So, as countries do form occasionally, the last one I believe was in 2012 when South Sudan became independent, this thread is to predict the next country to become independent. So, for myself, I doubt it will be Quebec as the calls for Québécois independence have gone down. It could be Scotland should say, the 2024 UK elections result in Labour and SNP forming a coalition government. Another possibility is a more widely recognized Somaliland. Kurdistan is another possibility. What about Puntland in Somalia.  |
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Post by american2006 on Feb 2, 2021 18:52:32 GMT
So, as countries do form occasionally, the last one I believe was in 2012 when South Sudan became independent, this thread is to predict the next country to become independent. So, for myself, I doubt it will be Quebec as the calls for Québécois independence have gone down. It could be Scotland should say, the 2024 UK elections result in Labour and SNP forming a coalition government. Another possibility is a more widely recognized Somaliland. Kurdistan is another possibility. What about Puntland in Somalia. Certainly possible, although I was not previously aware of its existence. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 2, 2021 18:54:01 GMT
What about Puntland in Somalia. Certainly possible, although I was not previously aware of its existence. Well you should check its Wikipedia page then: Puntland |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 2, 2021 18:57:58 GMT
So, as countries do form occasionally, the last one I believe was in 2012 when South Sudan became independent, this thread is to predict the next country to become independent. So, for myself, I doubt it will be Quebec as the calls for Québécois independence have gone down. It could be Scotland should say, the 2024 UK elections result in Labour and SNP forming a coalition government. Another possibility is a more widely recognized Somaliland. Kurdistan is another possibility.
Scotland could be a possibility. As could Somaliland as from what I've heard its a lot more viable that restoring Somalia. I can't really see Kurdistan as it would need a really powerful protector willing to clash with most/all of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
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Post by american2006 on Feb 2, 2021 18:58:51 GMT
So, as countries do form occasionally, the last one I believe was in 2012 when South Sudan became independent, this thread is to predict the next country to become independent. So, for myself, I doubt it will be Quebec as the calls for Québécois independence have gone down. It could be Scotland should say, the 2024 UK elections result in Labour and SNP forming a coalition government. Another possibility is a more widely recognized Somaliland. Kurdistan is another possibility.
Scotland could be a possibility. As could Somaliland as from what I've heard its a lot more viable that restoring Somalia. I can't really see Kurdistan as it would need a really powerful protector willing to clash with most/all of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
The protector is easy just get the US, Russia, or China to want Kurdistan to exist. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 2, 2021 19:06:23 GMT
Scotland could be a possibility. As could Somaliland as from what I've heard its a lot more viable that restoring Somalia. I can't really see Kurdistan as it would need a really powerful protector willing to clash with most/all of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
The protector is easy just get the US, Russia, or China to want Kurdistan to exist. But Iran, Turkey and Iraq and Syria do not want Kurdistan. |
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Post by american2006 on Feb 2, 2021 20:02:16 GMT
The protector is easy just get the US, Russia, or China to want Kurdistan to exist. But Iran, Turkey and Iraq and Syria do not want Kurdistan. Exactly. But I doubt Afghanistan was all too fond of the Afghan war. Major nations today as historically have done whatever it takes to get there will done. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 3, 2021 12:34:13 GMT
But Iran, Turkey and Iraq and Syria do not want Kurdistan. Exactly. But I doubt Afghanistan was all too fond of the Afghan war. Major nations today as historically have done whatever it takes to get there will done.
Except what's in it for that great power to force the creation of a Kurdistan state, especially if it involves all Kurdish majority areas, when it means: a) Angering at least four nations and probably others in the ME - since a number of other Arab nations/groups are likely to present it as an anti-Arab move. Especially when there are a lot of important resources and strategic locations in the region. Not to mention if one of the big three was to do this it's likely to meet opposition from at least one of the others. b) Both a big initial military operation to enable Kurdistan to be created then probably a continued military presence and accompanying casualties and fiscal costs to prevent it simply being crushed.
If there was a more moralistic and confident great nation and say a systematic attempt to exterminate the Kurds then you might see such an intervention on moral groups but it would still be costly. Also I doubt if any of the big three have that combination. US lacking confidence, China lacking morals and Russia currently lacking both.
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kyng
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Post by kyng on Feb 6, 2021 23:46:34 GMT
Well, I don't think it'd necessarily anger all four: for example, Turkey would probably be happy with an independent Iraqi Kurdistan (since they've been getting on well with the Iraqi Kurds for quite a while now). In fact, I suspect all four would be fine with an independent Kurdistan in theory - as long as it was carved out of somebody else's territory  . Still, I can't see it happening in the near future: too much bad blood there. One other possibility is Bougainville, which voted in favour of independence from Papua New Guinea in 2019 - although, it hasn't actually achieved it yet (and may or may not do so during the coming years). |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 7, 2021 13:35:00 GMT
Well, I don't think it'd necessarily anger all four: for example, Turkey would probably be happy with an independent Iraqi Kurdistan (since they've been getting on well with the Iraqi Kurds for quite a while now). In fact, I suspect all four would be fine with an independent Kurdistan in theory - as long as it was carved out of somebody else's territory . Still, I can't see it happening in the near future: too much bad blood there. One other possibility is Bougainville, which voted in favour of independence from Papua New Guinea in 2019 - although, it hasn't actually achieved it yet (and may or may not do so during the coming years).
As far as I'm aware their been hostile to the Iraqi Kurds quite a lot simply because a Kurdish state or even semi-independent one is seen as an example for their own Kurds. Their intervention in Syria seems to have been more to suppress the Kurds there than the IS and other groups the Kurds were fighting.
Bougainville is a possibly one. Good point.
Another one come to think of it, although it would be more a formal change than a 'real' one was if we get the China v US and allies war that so many people have been fearing and China goes down hard. In that case I could see Taiwan formally declaring independence and being recognised by a lot of nations then. Can't see it taking back the UNSC seat but formal independence would be a probability in that case.
Another option, although it would need a serious change in Madrid and probably also Brussels would be Catalonia.
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