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Post by CastilloVerde on Jan 16, 2021 4:42:42 GMT
Hello everyone, the purpose of this thread is to discuss what Julian the Apostate’s likely plans for the Roman Empire would be and how these plans would be implemented if his Persian campaign is successful and he returns to Rome as a hero with the riches of Ctesiphon.
Things to consider:
Pagan Reforms: Julian intended to reform the religio romana to a definitive form with Neoplatonism as its base that was intended to rival other religions for dominance in the empire. His plans would have included a hierarchical ecclesiastical structure and the adoption of some Christian virtues like charity. How would Julian accomplish this, though? Would there be a pagan ‘Council of Nicaea’? Would there be schisms with more traditional pagan groups?
Temple of Jerusalem: Does it get rebuilt or not? What are the consequences on Judaism?
Visigoths: They would eventually be pushed towards Rome’s borders due to the Hun’s invasions. Does Julian fight them or attempt to assimilate them peacefully?
Other military problems: Will the Anarchy in Britain in 367 occur? What about the revolt of Firmus in Africa? How would these be dealt with?
Successor and administration: Any ideas on Julian’s successor? Does he split the empire into an eastern & western half? How would Julian govern?
Relations with Iran: Will the new Shah, his successors or the Seven Great Houses attempt to get revenge on Julian by invading the Roman east once they recover? When and how would this occur? Maybe there will be an ‘Eternal Peace’ instead?
Relations with Armenia: A successful Persian campaign would most likely prevent Armenia from being conquered or partitioned by the Sassanids in the short term. Any other ideas?
Assume the following:
1. Results of Julian’s Persian campaign: Ctesiphon is sacked; Shapur the Great is killed; Ardashir is the new Shah; No border changes in the east
2. Emperor Julian lives at least until AD 385-390
Please do not turn this into a debate into whether or not Christianity will be destroyed by paganism or if paganism is doomed because these are not the purpose of this thread.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 16, 2021 14:37:51 GMT
Hello everyone, the purpose of this thread is to discuss what Julian the Apostate’s likely plans for the Roman Empire would be and how these plans would be implemented if his Persian campaign is successful and he returns to Rome as a hero with the riches of Ctesiphon. Things to consider: Assume the following:
1. Results of Julian’s Persian campaign: Ctesiphon is sacked; Shapur the Great is killed; Ardashir is the new Shah; No border changes in the east 2. Emperor Julian lives at least until AD 385-390 Please do not turn this into a debate into whether or not Christianity will be destroyed by paganism or if paganism is doomed because these are not the purpose of this thread.
Damn, damn. Was half way through a long reply then hit back-arrow by mistake and lost everything! Trying again but will make things a bit shorter.
Will add to your assumptions that Julian isn't facing major revolts or manages to suppress them quickly, which may not be the case of course.
Difficult to say as we have so little information about the actual religious state of the empire in this period. The old classical faiths face challenges from other eastern faiths such as Mithras and Sol as well as Christianity and the singular nature of those seems to have been attractive in the times of stress and disasters that had hit the empire since ~180AD. However Julian was seeking to reform and upgrade the faith with a more centralised structure to allow it to compete more effectively with its newer rivals. I think he would definitely try and you might have something like one of the Christian councils to formulate new rules. If its too centralised there is definitely the possibility that some areas could see resentment against control from Rome [or Constantinople depending on where Julian makes his capital] at the loss of autonomy and also possibly a centralised dogma could means some traditions being lost. Suspect that in then short term concerns about this will be less in most cases than having protection against Christian persecution and getting some imperial help to secure their status.
As I understand it this started under Julian and would have been completed if he had lived longer. Judaism would have followed a different path with a new temple and probably been more centralised as a result. Exact details could vary however and some of the wider diaspora could be resentful of this.
The bulk of the Jews are however likely to be strong supporters of Julian and his dynasty as long as they respect Jewish traditions and correspondingly you don't get some Jewish Zealot group that decides it doesn't want any foreign rulers. This support for Julian is likely to be especially strong against any Christian rebellions against the empire of course. Which would be good for the Julian cause as long as they win but if Christianity regained political dominance, even if only in parts of the east, its likely to be very bad for the Jewish population there. Depends on a lot of circumstances. Suspect that Julian would be willing to welcome them as refugees but would the Roman officials be less corrupt, which is what caused the rebellion. Again Julian might avoid Valen's defeat but if fighting did occur then it would be another strain on the empire. For anyone interesting in finding out more the wiki article on the Goths in this period gives some useful background here and in the following sections. One factor could be religion as Fritigern, who lead the initial Gothic movement was an Arianian which could mean Julian and his officials are more distrustful of him but then Theodosius, who was emperor when they arrived was a strict follower of the Niecian creed so was no great friend of them either. Also another group of Goths under Athanaric was still pagan and after he had defeated Fritigern some time before Athanaric attacked Christian Goths, see Gothic_persecution_of_Christians for more details. Athanaric later fled to the empire himself and was warmly welcomed by the emperor Theodosius but died very shortly afterwards. [Given there had been massacres of Goths in the empire after the defeat of Valens and Theodosius's only beliefs plus Athanaric's prior anti-Christian stance I wonder if this was a nature death?]
A lot would depend on the circumstances and Julian decided to reform the imperial bureaucracy and reduce its size and the levels of crippling taxation. Of course this is easier said than done but its possible he might have the empire in a stronger condition and with improved management which might butterfly the Gothic revolt in 376, in which case Rome could have a useful addition to its strength, especially considering many other Goths were already in the empire, largely as mercenaries and wouldn't have been killed/alienated by the massacres. If it still occurs Julian might have been a better general than Valen and hence defeated Fritigern but there would still be problems resulting.
Of course Julian is only one man. He could be facing problems with Persia or in the west so it could depend on the loyalty and ability of whoever is in charge of the Balkans for him.
Did have a read through the wiki pages on those issues but will keep it short. a) Suspect that some sort of problem will occur in Britain as the most exposed western outpost. The emperor Valentinian was in the west at the time, having made his brother co-emperor and in charge of the east but was busy fighting the Alemanni so could do little initially. However the forces he sent the following year under his general Theodosius, father of the later emperor, quickly seem to have driven out the barbarians and restored order, although by the sound of it with a lot of deaths and destruction across the province. It reports that the west was lacking manpower after the defeat of a userper in 351 and Julian himself took some of his veteran western units east when he challenged his brother and then invading Persia. Some of the latter might be boosting the west here assuming they return home but there is still likely to be problems. Again Julian is a single man so it would depend where he is when the storm hits and who is in charge for him in the area, both in terms of loyalty and competence.
Religion played a part here as Theodosius was Christian so might be mistrusted by Julian, or in turn might mistrust him. A revolt by him, since he seems to have been a very talented commander could be a serious issue although even having him not available for religious reasons would hurt. Its possible however that other pagan commanders who weren't welcome OTL might have been available to replace him and other Christians.
Also given that the west seems to have been a source of frequent rebellions against Constantinople - as well as the one on 315 AD there were two others during the reign of emperor Theodosius, both with a strong pagan element and the west still seems to have been majority pagan its possible that resentment against Christian domination and persecution played a part in some of the treachery that is reported to have occurred in helping the initial barbarian invasions so it might not occur TTL. Also given the manpower consumed by those two later revolts it does suggest there was more potential military resources that might be available.
I suspect there would be some sort of unrest and invasion and a lot would depend on who is in charge in Gaul and Britain and how competent and loyal they are.
b) Having read the wiki again it looks as if Firmus revolt could still occur as the drivers seem to have been family infighting with his brother and the corruption of the comes Africae Romanus, who was replaced by Theodosius - again the father not the son - when he was sent by Valentinian to sort out the mess. Also religion may have been a factor as Firmus was a Donatists, a strict Christian sect and is reported to have massacred the Christians of the dominant Nicene Creed in one town, prompting in turn Valentinian to issue laws against the Donatists. As an hard line sect the Donatists are unlikely to be friendly to Julian but they may be lured by offering them the ending of persecution by the Nicenians. Or simply, since this started in 372 that possibly Romanus might never become comes Africae or have been replaced by a more honest officer by Julian. Again there are likely to be some conflict but a lot could change.
As far as I'm aware Julian made no plans during his reign for either a co-ruler or to get married and produce an heir. He was only emperor for a short period so I don't know what he would have done if he lived longer. The co-emperor method provided two rulers who could each act in their own spheres in the east and west but as he know from the infighting that occurred after Constantine's death it could also prompt chaos and division. At the same time a single emperor needed someone to act for him at distant points. Especially since he could only respond to a crisis in a distant province once he heard about it and had time to move there so better to have some authority on the spot.
The man he most admired was Marcus Aurelius, emperor 161-180. However I think he was opposed to Marcus elevating his son Commodus to the throne, especially since Commodus is widely - although by some sources unfairly - seen as being a disaster who ruled badly and prompted another wave of civil wars and ended the period of the good emperors. Possibly Julian had decided to try and restore the method of adapting an heir from the best candidate, which might restore some stability and hence had decided not to have children himself - although this is just speculation on my part. Or simply he was still young, very busy, possibly even thinking himself selected by the gods and simply hadn't got around to marrying to produce a blood heir. [It should be noticed that the reign of the 5 good emperors who adopted heirs was largely by chance with no emperor until Marcus having a son himself and is unlikely to be stable in the longer run].
Julian would need trusted subordinates and I can see him selecting some of the loyal officers who has served under him in Gaul and possibly also in the east but whether one would be nominated as co-emperor I don't know.
This one is simple. Even if Julian for some reason having won such a victory didn't annex any land, which seems highly unlikely the Sassanids would be back at some point. The Roman empire was their natural rival and also looting it offered fame and wealth. I think all the Persian empires before the Muslim conquest looked back to that of Cyrus and felt the lands he and his son conquered belonged to Persia. I can't see any lasting peace here although internal dissent after the death of Shapur and/or pressure on their eastern borders could delay this somewhat.
Well Armenia could be happy not to come under Sassanid control but would Julian want to have it as at least a protectorate. Also by this time the dynasty and at least a substantial element of the population had become Christian. The dominant religion before this was the Persian one of Zoroastrianism so even if that was to make a come back Armenia is likely to be less than a friendly/reliable vassal to a pagan Rome.
Anyway my initial thoughts on the issue.
Steve
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Post by CastilloVerde on Jan 16, 2021 20:01:35 GMT
Damn, damn. Was half way through a long reply then hit back-arrow by mistake and lost everything! " class="smile"] I hate when that happens. Will add to your assumptions that Julian isn't facing major revolts or manages to suppress them quickly, which may not be the case of course.
Very true. I'm sure there would be revolts under Julian if he survived his Persian campaign. Difficult to say as we have so little information about the actual religious state of the empire in this period. The old classical faiths face challenges from other eastern faiths such as Mithras and Sol as well as Christianity and the singular nature of those seems to have been attractive in the times of stress and disasters that had hit the empire since ~180AD. However Julian was seeking to reform and upgrade the faith with a more centralised structure to allow it to compete more effectively with its newer rivals. I think he would definitely try and you might have something like one of the Christian councils to formulate new rules. If its too centralised there is definitely the possibility that some areas could see resentment against control from Rome [or Constantinople depending on where Julian makes his capital] at the loss of autonomy and also possibly a centralised dogma could means some traditions being lost. Suspect that in then short term concerns about this will be less in most cases than having protection against Christian persecution and getting some imperial help to secure their status. I agree. Julian's pagan reforms are very interesting to think about and a pagan 'Council of Nicaea' is quite intriguing to think about. I heard it compared before that if Julian would succeed in reforming paganism, he would be similar to the 'Vedanta' (closing the Vedas) in Hinduism and similarly transform the religio romana to 'Hellenism' much the same way Vedism transformed to Hinduism. I think, however, schisms with other pagans will develop, not necessarily during Julian's reign, but in future times as well. Similar to OTL Christian schisms following the councils of Nicaea, Ephesus, Chalcedon, etc. Certain pagan traditions may indeed be lost, but some other traditions could see greater emphasis placed on them. Perhaps new traditions may be created as well, similar to how the cult of Serapis was created and flourished in Ptolemaic Egypt. Of course, it remains to be seen how successful Julian would be in reforming paganism. I personally think he could be successful, but it would be a struggle indeed. Julian would not simply have the Christians as enemies, but also Manichaeans and other pagan groups who would not like his reforms. As I understand it this started under Julian and would have been completed if he had lived longer. Judaism would have followed a different path with a new temple and probably been more centralised as a result. Exact details could vary however and some of the wider diaspora could be resentful of this.
The bulk of the Jews are however likely to be strong supporters of Julian and his dynasty as long as they respect Jewish traditions and correspondingly you don't get some Jewish Zealot group that decides it doesn't want any foreign rulers. This support for Julian is likely to be especially strong against any Christian rebellions against the empire of course. Which would be good for the Julian cause as long as they win but if Christianity regained political dominance, even if only in parts of the east, its likely to be very bad for the Jewish population there. I agree. From what I gather, Jews tended to be supportive of Julian and were the ones who funded the construction of the Temple itself. Julian himself respected the Jews and Judaism, often praising the Jews in contrast to the Christians. If Christians regain political dominance, as you say, then I agree that it would be bad for the Jews unfortunately. Depends on a lot of circumstances. Suspect that Julian would be willing to welcome them as refugees but would the Roman officials be less corrupt, which is what caused the rebellion. Again Julian might avoid Valen's defeat but if fighting did occur then it would be another strain on the empire. For anyone interesting in finding out more the wiki article on the Goths in this period gives some useful background here and in the following sections. One factor could be religion as Fritigern, who lead the initial Gothic movement was an Arianian which could mean Julian and his officials are more distrustful of him but then Theodosius, who was emperor when they arrived was a strict follower of the Niecian creed so was no great friend of them either. Also another group of Goths under Athanaric was still pagan and after he had defeated Fritigern some time before Athanaric attacked Christian Goths, see Gothic_persecution_of_Christians for more details. Athanaric later fled to the empire himself and was warmly welcomed by the emperor Theodosius but died very shortly afterwards. [Given there had been massacres of Goths in the empire after the defeat of Valens and Theodosius's only beliefs plus Athanaric's prior anti-Christian stance I wonder if this was a nature death?]
A lot would depend on the circumstances and Julian decided to reform the imperial bureaucracy and reduce its size and the levels of crippling taxation. Of course this is easier said than done but its possible he might have the empire in a stronger condition and with improved management which might butterfly the Gothic revolt in 376, in which case Rome could have a useful addition to its strength, especially considering many other Goths were already in the empire, largely as mercenaries and wouldn't have been killed/alienated by the massacres. If it still occurs Julian might have been a better general than Valen and hence defeated Fritigern but there would still be problems resulting.
Of course Julian is only one man. He could be facing problems with Persia or in the west so it could depend on the loyalty and ability of whoever is in charge of the Balkans for him. Very interesting. I do have to look into this more. I do think Julian would not be like Valens and if a battle with t he Visigoths occur, Julian would be a better general in that regard. Though a struggle here with the Visigoths could be a good time for the Persians to attack the Roman east. a) Suspect that some sort of problem will occur in Britain as the most exposed western outpost. The emperor Valentinian was in the west at the time, having made his brother co-emperor and in charge of the east but was busy fighting the Alemanni so could do little initially. However the forces he sent the following year under his general Theodosius, father of the later emperor, quickly seem to have driven out the barbarians and restored order, although by the sound of it with a lot of deaths and destruction across the province. It reports that the west was lacking manpower after the defeat of a userper in 351 and Julian himself took some of his veteran western units east when he challenged his brother and then invading Persia. Some of the latter might be boosting the west here assuming they return home but there is still likely to be problems. Again Julian is a single man so it would depend where he is when the storm hits and who is in charge for him in the area, both in terms of loyalty and competence.
Religion played a part here as Theodosius was Christian so might be mistrusted by Julian, or in turn might mistrust him. A revolt by him, since he seems to have been a very talented commander could be a serious issue although even having him not available for religious reasons would hurt. Its possible however that other pagan commanders who weren't welcome OTL might have been available to replace him and other Christians.
Also given that the west seems to have been a source of frequent rebellions against Constantinople - as well as the one on 315 AD there were two others during the reign of emperor Theodosius, both with a strong pagan element and the west still seems to have been majority pagan its possible that resentment against Christian domination and persecution played a part in some of the treachery that is reported to have occurred in helping the initial barbarian invasions so it might not occur TTL. Also given the manpower consumed by those two later revolts it does suggest there was more potential military resources that might be available.
I suspect there would be some sort of unrest and invasion and a lot would depend on who is in charge in Gaul and Britain and how competent and loyal they are. I agree. Britain is too far from the imperial core and already was a staging ground of earlier rebellions like Constantine's rebellion in the past. A revolt by Theodosius seems interesting and would certainly be something to consider during Julian's reign. I wonder, though, if the pagan Britons would take kindly to Julian's own pagan reforms. b) Having read the wiki again it looks as if Firmus revolt could still occur as the drivers seem to have been family infighting with his brother and the corruption of the comes Africae Romanus, who was replaced by Theodosius - again the father not the son - when he was sent by Valentinian to sort out the mess. Also religion may have been a factor as Firmus was a Donatists, a strict Christian sect and is reported to have massacred the Christians of the dominant Nicene Creed in one town, prompting in turn Valentinian to issue laws against the Donatists. As an hard line sect the Donatists are unlikely to be friendly to Julian but they may be lured by offering them the ending of persecution by the Nicenians. Or simply, since this started in 372 that possibly Romanus might never become comes Africae or have been replaced by a more honest officer by Julian. Again there are likely to be some conflict but a lot could change. Interesting. From what I read, Firmus was indeed corrupt and a some of the causes of the revolt were already in place by Julian's reign. Unfortunately, I have to do more research on this, but your point on the Donatists is good to think about. As far as I'm aware Julian made no plans during his reign for either a co-ruler or to get married and produce an heir. He was only emperor for a short period so I don't know what he would have done if he lived longer. The co-emperor method provided two rulers who could each act in their own spheres in the east and west but as he know from the infighting that occurred after Constantine's death it could also prompt chaos and division. At the same time a single emperor needed someone to act for him at distant points. Especially since he could only respond to a crisis in a distant province once he heard about it and had time to move there so better to have some authority on the spot.
The man he most admired was Marcus Aurelius, emperor 161-180. However I think he was opposed to Marcus elevating his son Commodus to the throne, especially since Commodus is widely - although by some sources unfairly - seen as being a disaster who ruled badly and prompted another wave of civil wars and ended the period of the good emperors. Possibly Julian had decided to try and restore the method of adapting an heir from the best candidate, which might restore some stability and hence had decided not to have children himself - although this is just speculation on my part. Or simply he was still young, very busy, possibly even thinking himself selected by the gods and simply hadn't got around to marrying to produce a blood heir. [It should be noticed that the reign of the 5 good emperors who adopted heirs was largely by chance with no emperor until Marcus having a son himself and is unlikely to be stable in the longer run].
Julian would need trusted subordinates and I can see him selecting some of the loyal officers who has served under him in Gaul and possibly also in the east but whether one would be nominated as co-emperor I don't know. I wonder if his friend Procopius would be a co-emperor or heir. Of course, he was around 40 when he was killed in OTL around AD 366 so he may be too old by 385-390. Another possibility is also his friend Salutius. Of course, it seems that nominating a co-emperor is not something that would have occurred to Julian. Adoption is certainly a possibility like the Five Good Emperors but I don't really know a proper candidate because many things could change if Julian rules for a few decades past his OTL death. This one is simple. Even if Julian for some reason having won such a victory didn't annex any land, which seems highly unlikely the Sassanids would be back at some point. The Roman empire was their natural rival and also looting it offered fame and wealth. I think all the Persian empires before the Muslim conquest looked back to that of Cyrus and felt the lands he and his son conquered belonged to Persia. I can't see any lasting peace here although internal dissent after the death of Shapur and/or pressure on their eastern borders could delay this somewhat. Yes it seems that at some point the Iranians would attack the Romans, perhaps when Rome encounters internal problems. Although, if the Hephthalites or the Huns attack the Persians thereby distracting the Persians from attacking the Romans, then the Romans would get some time to prepare and maybe make allies with Iran's enemies. Well Armenia could be happy not to come under Sassanid control but would Julian want to have it as at least a protectorate. Also by this time the dynasty and at least a substantial element of the population had become Christian. The dominant religion before this was the Persian one of Zoroastrianism so even if that was to make a come back Armenia is likely to be less than a friendly/reliable vassal to a pagan Rome. From what I know, the king of Armenia Arsakes II was not that close with Julian and it did seem that religious differences between the two played some role in that regard. Of course, Arsakes's successors would be something else entirely. Although, Armenia does not seem to abandon Christianity and return to the old religions by this point. Rather, the Armenians may make common cause with the Sassanids and ally with them (or get closer in their sphere of influence) against Rome. Thank you Steve for your lengthy response.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Jan 17, 2021 16:39:32 GMT
Damn, damn. Was half way through a long reply then hit back-arrow by mistake and lost everything! " class="smile"] I hate when that happens. Will add to your assumptions that Julian isn't facing major revolts or manages to suppress them quickly, which may not be the case of course.
Very true. I'm sure there would be revolts under Julian if he survived his Persian campaign. Difficult to say as we have so little information about the actual religious state of the empire in this period. The old classical faiths face challenges from other eastern faiths such as Mithras and Sol as well as Christianity and the singular nature of those seems to have been attractive in the times of stress and disasters that had hit the empire since ~180AD. However Julian was seeking to reform and upgrade the faith with a more centralised structure to allow it to compete more effectively with its newer rivals. I think he would definitely try and you might have something like one of the Christian councils to formulate new rules. If its too centralised there is definitely the possibility that some areas could see resentment against control from Rome [or Constantinople depending on where Julian makes his capital] at the loss of autonomy and also possibly a centralised dogma could means some traditions being lost. Suspect that in then short term concerns about this will be less in most cases than having protection against Christian persecution and getting some imperial help to secure their status. I agree. Julian's pagan reforms are very interesting to think about and a pagan 'Council of Nicaea' is quite intriguing to think about. I heard it compared before that if Julian would succeed in reforming paganism, he would be similar to the 'Vedanta' (closing the Vedas) in Hinduism and similarly transform the religio romana to 'Hellenism' much the same way Vedism transformed to Hinduism. I think, however, schisms with other pagans will develop, not necessarily during Julian's reign, but in future times as well. Similar to OTL Christian schisms following the councils of Nicaea, Ephesus, Chalcedon, etc. Certain pagan traditions may indeed be lost, but some other traditions could see greater emphasis placed on them. Perhaps new traditions may be created as well, similar to how the cult of Serapis was created and flourished in Ptolemaic Egypt. Of course, it remains to be seen how successful Julian would be in reforming paganism. I personally think he could be successful, but it would be a struggle indeed. Julian would not simply have the Christians as enemies, but also Manichaeans and other pagan groups who would not like his reforms. As I understand it this started under Julian and would have been completed if he had lived longer. Judaism would have followed a different path with a new temple and probably been more centralised as a result. Exact details could vary however and some of the wider diaspora could be resentful of this.
The bulk of the Jews are however likely to be strong supporters of Julian and his dynasty as long as they respect Jewish traditions and correspondingly you don't get some Jewish Zealot group that decides it doesn't want any foreign rulers. This support for Julian is likely to be especially strong against any Christian rebellions against the empire of course. Which would be good for the Julian cause as long as they win but if Christianity regained political dominance, even if only in parts of the east, its likely to be very bad for the Jewish population there. I agree. From what I gather, Jews tended to be supportive of Julian and were the ones who funded the construction of the Temple itself. Julian himself respected the Jews and Judaism, often praising the Jews in contrast to the Christians. If Christians regain political dominance, as you say, then I agree that it would be bad for the Jews unfortunately. Depends on a lot of circumstances. Suspect that Julian would be willing to welcome them as refugees but would the Roman officials be less corrupt, which is what caused the rebellion. Again Julian might avoid Valen's defeat but if fighting did occur then it would be another strain on the empire. For anyone interesting in finding out more the wiki article on the Goths in this period gives some useful background here and in the following sections. One factor could be religion as Fritigern, who lead the initial Gothic movement was an Arianian which could mean Julian and his officials are more distrustful of him but then Theodosius, who was emperor when they arrived was a strict follower of the Niecian creed so was no great friend of them either. Also another group of Goths under Athanaric was still pagan and after he had defeated Fritigern some time before Athanaric attacked Christian Goths, see Gothic_persecution_of_Christians for more details. Athanaric later fled to the empire himself and was warmly welcomed by the emperor Theodosius but died very shortly afterwards. [Given there had been massacres of Goths in the empire after the defeat of Valens and Theodosius's only beliefs plus Athanaric's prior anti-Christian stance I wonder if this was a nature death?]
A lot would depend on the circumstances and Julian decided to reform the imperial bureaucracy and reduce its size and the levels of crippling taxation. Of course this is easier said than done but its possible he might have the empire in a stronger condition and with improved management which might butterfly the Gothic revolt in 376, in which case Rome could have a useful addition to its strength, especially considering many other Goths were already in the empire, largely as mercenaries and wouldn't have been killed/alienated by the massacres. If it still occurs Julian might have been a better general than Valen and hence defeated Fritigern but there would still be problems resulting.
Of course Julian is only one man. He could be facing problems with Persia or in the west so it could depend on the loyalty and ability of whoever is in charge of the Balkans for him. Very interesting. I do have to look into this more. I do think Julian would not be like Valens and if a battle with t he Visigoths occur, Julian would be a better general in that regard. Though a struggle here with the Visigoths could be a good time for the Persians to attack the Roman east. a) Suspect that some sort of problem will occur in Britain as the most exposed western outpost. The emperor Valentinian was in the west at the time, having made his brother co-emperor and in charge of the east but was busy fighting the Alemanni so could do little initially. However the forces he sent the following year under his general Theodosius, father of the later emperor, quickly seem to have driven out the barbarians and restored order, although by the sound of it with a lot of deaths and destruction across the province. It reports that the west was lacking manpower after the defeat of a userper in 351 and Julian himself took some of his veteran western units east when he challenged his brother and then invading Persia. Some of the latter might be boosting the west here assuming they return home but there is still likely to be problems. Again Julian is a single man so it would depend where he is when the storm hits and who is in charge for him in the area, both in terms of loyalty and competence.
Religion played a part here as Theodosius was Christian so might be mistrusted by Julian, or in turn might mistrust him. A revolt by him, since he seems to have been a very talented commander could be a serious issue although even having him not available for religious reasons would hurt. Its possible however that other pagan commanders who weren't welcome OTL might have been available to replace him and other Christians.
Also given that the west seems to have been a source of frequent rebellions against Constantinople - as well as the one on 315 AD there were two others during the reign of emperor Theodosius, both with a strong pagan element and the west still seems to have been majority pagan its possible that resentment against Christian domination and persecution played a part in some of the treachery that is reported to have occurred in helping the initial barbarian invasions so it might not occur TTL. Also given the manpower consumed by those two later revolts it does suggest there was more potential military resources that might be available.
I suspect there would be some sort of unrest and invasion and a lot would depend on who is in charge in Gaul and Britain and how competent and loyal they are. I agree. Britain is too far from the imperial core and already was a staging ground of earlier rebellions like Constantine's rebellion in the past. A revolt by Theodosius seems interesting and would certainly be something to consider during Julian's reign. I wonder, though, if the pagan Britons would take kindly to Julian's own pagan reforms. b) Having read the wiki again it looks as if Firmus revolt could still occur as the drivers seem to have been family infighting with his brother and the corruption of the comes Africae Romanus, who was replaced by Theodosius - again the father not the son - when he was sent by Valentinian to sort out the mess. Also religion may have been a factor as Firmus was a Donatists, a strict Christian sect and is reported to have massacred the Christians of the dominant Nicene Creed in one town, prompting in turn Valentinian to issue laws against the Donatists. As an hard line sect the Donatists are unlikely to be friendly to Julian but they may be lured by offering them the ending of persecution by the Nicenians. Or simply, since this started in 372 that possibly Romanus might never become comes Africae or have been replaced by a more honest officer by Julian. Again there are likely to be some conflict but a lot could change. Interesting. From what I read, Firmus was indeed corrupt and a some of the causes of the revolt were already in place by Julian's reign. Unfortunately, I have to do more research on this, but your point on the Donatists is good to think about. As far as I'm aware Julian made no plans during his reign for either a co-ruler or to get married and produce an heir. He was only emperor for a short period so I don't know what he would have done if he lived longer. The co-emperor method provided two rulers who could each act in their own spheres in the east and west but as he know from the infighting that occurred after Constantine's death it could also prompt chaos and division. At the same time a single emperor needed someone to act for him at distant points. Especially since he could only respond to a crisis in a distant province once he heard about it and had time to move there so better to have some authority on the spot.
The man he most admired was Marcus Aurelius, emperor 161-180. However I think he was opposed to Marcus elevating his son Commodus to the throne, especially since Commodus is widely - although by some sources unfairly - seen as being a disaster who ruled badly and prompted another wave of civil wars and ended the period of the good emperors. Possibly Julian had decided to try and restore the method of adapting an heir from the best candidate, which might restore some stability and hence had decided not to have children himself - although this is just speculation on my part. Or simply he was still young, very busy, possibly even thinking himself selected by the gods and simply hadn't got around to marrying to produce a blood heir. [It should be noticed that the reign of the 5 good emperors who adopted heirs was largely by chance with no emperor until Marcus having a son himself and is unlikely to be stable in the longer run].
Julian would need trusted subordinates and I can see him selecting some of the loyal officers who has served under him in Gaul and possibly also in the east but whether one would be nominated as co-emperor I don't know. I wonder if his friend Procopius would be a co-emperor or heir. Of course, he was around 40 when he was killed in OTL around AD 366 so he may be too old by 385-390. Another possibility is also his friend Salutius. Of course, it seems that nominating a co-emperor is not something that would have occurred to Julian. Adoption is certainly a possibility like the Five Good Emperors but I don't really know a proper candidate because many things could change if Julian rules for a few decades past his OTL death. This one is simple. Even if Julian for some reason having won such a victory didn't annex any land, which seems highly unlikely the Sassanids would be back at some point. The Roman empire was their natural rival and also looting it offered fame and wealth. I think all the Persian empires before the Muslim conquest looked back to that of Cyrus and felt the lands he and his son conquered belonged to Persia. I can't see any lasting peace here although internal dissent after the death of Shapur and/or pressure on their eastern borders could delay this somewhat. Yes it seems that at some point the Iranians would attack the Romans, perhaps when Rome encounters internal problems. Although, if the Hephthalites or the Huns attack the Persians thereby distracting the Persians from attacking the Romans, then the Romans would get some time to prepare and maybe make allies with Iran's enemies. Well Armenia could be happy not to come under Sassanid control but would Julian want to have it as at least a protectorate. Also by this time the dynasty and at least a substantial element of the population had become Christian. The dominant religion before this was the Persian one of Zoroastrianism so even if that was to make a come back Armenia is likely to be less than a friendly/reliable vassal to a pagan Rome. From what I know, the king of Armenia Arsakes II was not that close with Julian and it did seem that religious differences between the two played some role in that regard. Of course, Arsakes's successors would be something else entirely. Although, Armenia does not seem to abandon Christianity and return to the old religions by this point. Rather, the Armenians may make common cause with the Sassanids and ally with them (or get closer in their sphere of influence) against Rome. Thank you Steve for your lengthy response.
Some quick comments. Not posting links this time so shouldn't be an fatal finger problems.
I would expect that there will be revolts, which are likely to have a Christian presence, whether as the primary motive or possibly a would be usurper using that as a means to get support from the Christians, especially of the Nicene branches. One point with this is that it makes it more likely that the east will be rebellious than the west, which was still largely pagan. Also if Julian uses some subtly and gives some favours to other Christian groups, such as the Arians, if only enforcing their equality with the Nicenians then that could make them less hostile. As such you may not see the big revolts that occurred under Magnus Maximus and Flavius Eugenius [although in the latter case its thought that his military commander Arbogast who is generally thought to have been Frankish. However your very likely to see more revolts in the east.
Do you know much about Julians planned reforms please as I know only some broad details of a general reorganisation and attempt at reinvigorating the pagan faiths. Would it have included a definite doctrine, which might have alienated some of the more distant communities or have been more accepting of different viewpoints and pantheons? What would its approach be to worship of other monotheistic faiths such as Mithra's and Sol? Basically how well can he square the circle in terms of clarifying and making more popular traditional Roman religion without alienating fringe groups. Since he gave support to the Jews he wasn't going to be too strict, unless that was purely diplomatic which it might be. But then a reinvigorated pagan structure could later on start getting restrictive itself.
I think if Julian can avoid conflict with the Goths, who don't seem to have splintered into Visi and Ostro branches yet but I could be wrong, he might well end up clashing with the Huns, Especially if he seems to have the empire fairly secure he might be tempted to seek to restore the Goths to at least the former Dacia area, with Roman support as a buffer against steppe nomads. As you say that could be ideal conditions for the Sassanids to stir up trouble in the east. [Could be really nasty if they combines this with a Christian uprising!]
A revolt by someone like Theodosius - more likely probably the elder although he doesn't seem to have become a significant figure until the mid 360s so possibly could be butterflied - could well be dangerous as he seems to have been a very skilled general. How much support he might have in the predominantly pagan west I don't know but if operating in the east that could be a serious problem. Although even a pagan general based in the west might be tempted by power.
Someone like Procopius or Salutius could be a useful co-emperor, simply to take care of one section of the empire while Julian is operating elsewhere. Not sure how good a general Procopius was but being trustworthy and honest would probably be more important that great military skill as long as their not totally incompetent either militarily or in governing areas. Wiki says very little on Salutius and there was at least two of the latter in this period. Might be some other generals or even largely civil figures who could be governors to maintain good law and order in regions will emerge. No doubt some dodgy or incompetent characters as well but that's always likely.
Judging by their wiki page the Hephthalites only really emerged ~450AD but they replaced the earlier Kidarites, who seem to have had a similar role but not as powerful as the Hephthalites. They were forced into alliance with the Sassanids and were present in the siege of Amida in 359 where their king lost his son. Unclear when this started but later the Sassanids had to pay them tribune to keep them quiet so you could see them causing the Sassanids problems for at least a while after the death of Shapur and many of this leading supporters in TTL at Ctesiphon possibly prompts them to rebel.
Agree that Armenia is likely to become an ally of the Sassanids in TTL, unless it can be persuaded to be a neutral, playing both sides for advantage. However can't see it abandoning Christianity and if it did it would be likely to revert to Zoroastrianism, the previous faith and that of the Sassanids.
One thing I forgot to say yesterday. You did say that Julian ended his war with no border changes? I think this is unlikely if he has a big victory at Ctesiphon as I would expect him to seek to maintain control of Mesopotamia down to around Ctesiphon. Otherwise even with a big victory - and a number of smaller ones - and a lot of loot the war is going to look like a failure to many in the empire.
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Post by CastilloVerde on Jan 18, 2021 16:25:16 GMT
I would expect that there will be revolts, which are likely to have a Christian presence, whether as the primary motive or possibly a would be usurper using that as a means to get support from the Christians, especially of the Nicene branches. One point with this is that it makes it more likely that the east will be rebellious than the west, which was still largely pagan. Also if Julian uses some subtly and gives some favours to other Christian groups, such as the Arians, if only enforcing their equality with the Nicenians then that could make them less hostile. As such you may not see the big revolts that occurred under Magnus Maximus and Flavius Eugenius [although in the latter case its thought that his military commander Arbogast who is generally thought to have been Frankish. However your very likely to see more revolts in the east. Yes I expect many revolts too, especially considering this period of Late Antiquity. Not all these revolts would necessarily be religiously motivated, though. Regarding the Arians, Julian brought back exiled Arian bishops and proclaimed equality to all Christian sects, so there would certainly be tensions between Nicene Christians and Arians. This is important because a surviving Julian would also butterfly the First Council of Constantinople in AD 381. This council affirmed the condemnation of Arianism, defined that the Holy Spirit is co-equal with the Father and Son, and adopted the modified version of the Nicene Creed that is still used by the Orthodox today. Butterflying this council would thus have important effects on Christianity. Although, it would be interesting to have a similar council take place in Aksum or Armenia as the kings in those places were Christian. Do you know much about Julians planned reforms please as I know only some broad details of a general reorganisation and attempt at reinvigorating the pagan faiths. Would it have included a definite doctrine, which might have alienated some of the more distant communities or have been more accepting of different viewpoints and pantheons? What would its approach be to worship of other monotheistic faiths such as Mithra's and Sol? Basically how well can he square the circle in terms of clarifying and making more popular traditional Roman religion without alienating fringe groups. Since he gave support to the Jews he wasn't going to be too strict, unless that was purely diplomatic which it might be. But then a reinvigorated pagan structure could later on start getting restrictive itself. It's important to understand that Julian’s reforms would create a definitive version of the religio romana rather than simply restoring the old ways. It’s impossible to go back to the old ways which Julian understood and was never his goal to do so at all. What Julian intended to do was to use a standard form of the religio romana as the ‘base’ of the reformed religion but with Neoplatonism as its underlying structure complete with an ecclesiastical hierarchy inspired by Christianity. Julian and perhaps many of his fellow Neoplatonist philosophers understood that universal religions like Christianity and Manichaeism had certain advantages which was important for propagating these faiths. The church hierarchy was one of these advantages along with a defined Orthodoxy that could allow these faiths to withstand competition with outside faiths. The Neoplatonism, which was the dominant philosophy of the time (even early Christians like Origen and St Augustine’s theologies were influenced by it), would be the encompassing structure of his religion. What this meant is that the many pagan gods of old would be regarded as different manifestations or emanations of The One (the ‘Source’ or the divine ‘Absolute’ from which all things originate). You mentioned that the pagan structure could later on get restrictive itself. This I agree. Julian’s reformed pagan ‘Orthodoxy’ would later on produce disagreements among different pagan factions and perhaps even schisms itself. Should the Empire and the pagan church survive, however, I can see the new pagan Orthodoxy to outlast many of the different schisms in much the same way Nicene Christianity outlasted Arianism. Of course, this can go in any direction. The unreformed religious traditions would certainly be tolerated, especially initially, but it would be Julian’s reformed paganism that would enjoy state sponsorship in contrast to the other traditions. In the end, Julian’s reforms would have fundamentally changed the religio romana that while it would have continuity with the old ways, it would be about as similar as modern Hinduism is to the Vedic religion prior to the Vedanta which I mentioned in the last post. The new religion would, properly implemented, have challenged Christianity (and other religions) for dominance in the Empire. Of course, this is all very ambitious and would have required Julian to reign for long enough to implement these reforms effectively which is difficult to do given Julian’s character. I think if Julian can avoid conflict with the Goths, who don't seem to have splintered into Visi and Ostro branches yet but I could be wrong, he might well end up clashing with the Huns, Especially if he seems to have the empire fairly secure he might be tempted to seek to restore the Goths to at least the former Dacia area, with Roman support as a buffer against steppe nomads. As you say that could be ideal conditions for the Sassanids to stir up trouble in the east. [Could be really nasty if they combines this with a Christian uprising!] Interesting point. A Gothic buffer against the Huns does seem sensible. It would be useful to use the Goths as auxiliaries against the Huns in much the same way Julian used Germanic auxiliaries in his Persian campaign. Assimilating the Goths could be useful for lessening the damage the barbarian migrations would do in the empire in the next century. Perhaps Julian could also use the Goths as loyal auxiliaries against the Sassanids during a Persian attack. A revolt by someone like Theodosius - more likely probably the elder although he doesn't seem to have become a significant figure until the mid 360s so possibly could be butterflied - could well be dangerous as he seems to have been a very skilled general. How much support he might have in the predominantly pagan west I don't know but if operating in the east that could be a serious problem. Although even a pagan general based in the west might be tempted by power.
Very true. Theodosius is an interesting character. If someone were to write a TL (I’m seriously considering writing a ‘Julian survives’ TL now!), a Theodosian revolt would be a good chapter that has Julian face a serious crisis during his reign. I can also imagine a pagan general in the west who doesn’t like Julian’s reforms to start a rebellion as well. Someone like Procopius or Salutius could be a useful co-emperor, simply to take care of one section of the empire while Julian is operating elsewhere. Not sure how good a general Procopius was but being trustworthy and honest would probably be more important that great military skill as long as their not totally incompetent either militarily or in governing areas. Wiki says very little on Salutius and there was at least two of the latter in this period. Might be some other generals or even largely civil figures who could be governors to maintain good law and order in regions will emerge. No doubt some dodgy or incompetent characters as well but that's always likely. Yes this seems likely. I don’t know if Julian would have a co-emperor or even have a son. Perhaps he may be like Basil II and not have a child or nominate a successful general as co-emperor. Perhaps not, but it’s difficult to reconstruct Julian’s motives in this regard. Judging by their wiki page the Hephthalites only really emerged ~450AD but they replaced the earlier Kidarites, who seem to have had a similar role but not as powerful as the Hephthalites. They were forced into alliance with the Sassanids and were present in the siege of Amida in 359 where their king lost his son. Unclear when this started but later the Sassanids had to pay them tribune to keep them quiet so you could see them causing the Sassanids problems for at least a while after the death of Shapur and many of this leading supporters in TTL at Ctesiphon possibly prompts them to rebel. The point about the Kidarites is interesting. The Kidarites could certainly keep the Sassanids busy and prevent them from attacking the Romans. No doubt the Romans would appreciate this. I can also see a major crisis develop among the Sassanids (for example a dynastic struggle) that would force the Kidarites to intervene and perhaps usurp the title of Shah of Iran from the Sassanid dynasty.
Agree that Armenia is likely to become an ally of the Sassanids in TTL, unless it can be persuaded to be a neutral, playing both sides for advantage. However can't see it abandoning Christianity and if it did it would be likely to revert to Zoroastrianism, the previous faith and that of the Sassanids. I agree. Armenia would most likely not abandon Christianity (apologies if my previous post was unclear). A neutral Armenia, or at least a pragmatic Armenia that plays both sides well would be a good compromise to both the Romans and Iranians and would ensure the continued survival of the Kingdom of Armenia. In this case, I can see an independent Armenia becoming a major Christian site of learning and pilgrimages in the future. If Julian’s pagan reforms succeed, Armenia and Aksum being the two major Christian areas would have interesting effects of the development of Christianity in the future. One thing I forgot to say yesterday. You did say that Julian ended his war with no border changes? I think this is unlikely if he has a big victory at Ctesiphon as I would expect him to seek to maintain control of Mesopotamia down to around Ctesiphon. Otherwise even with a big victory - and a number of smaller ones - and a lot of loot the war is going to look like a failure to many in the empire. I agree that there would be border changes after a successful Persian campaign. I specified no border changes only for the sake of argument to make things simple because taking a lot of Sassanid Mesopotamia would complicate matters in the east. It would definitely anger the Persians and would make a rematch extremely likely. Julian would be preoccupied with this problem for a significant part of his reign and I wanted to focus on domestic Roman affairs not just the Persians. Thank you for your response.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Jan 18, 2021 20:23:34 GMT
I would expect that there will be revolts, which are likely to have a Christian presence, whether as the primary motive or possibly a would be usurper using that as a means to get support from the Christians, especially of the Nicene branches. One point with this is that it makes it more likely that the east will be rebellious than the west, which was still largely pagan. Also if Julian uses some subtly and gives some favours to other Christian groups, such as the Arians, if only enforcing their equality with the Nicenians then that could make them less hostile. As such you may not see the big revolts that occurred under Magnus Maximus and Flavius Eugenius [although in the latter case its thought that his military commander Arbogast who is generally thought to have been Frankish. However your very likely to see more revolts in the east. Yes I expect many revolts too, especially considering this period of Late Antiquity. Not all these revolts would necessarily be religiously motivated, though. Regarding the Arians, Julian brought back exiled Arian bishops and proclaimed equality to all Christian sects, so there would certainly be tensions between Nicene Christians and Arians. This is important because a surviving Julian would also butterfly the First Council of Constantinople in AD 381. This council affirmed the condemnation of Arianism, defined that the Holy Spirit is co-equal with the Father and Son, and adopted the modified version of the Nicene Creed that is still used by the Orthodox today. Butterflying this council would thus have important effects on Christianity. Although, it would be interesting to have a similar council take place in Aksum or Armenia as the kings in those places were Christian. Do you know much about Julians planned reforms please as I know only some broad details of a general reorganisation and attempt at reinvigorating the pagan faiths. Would it have included a definite doctrine, which might have alienated some of the more distant communities or have been more accepting of different viewpoints and pantheons? What would its approach be to worship of other monotheistic faiths such as Mithra's and Sol? Basically how well can he square the circle in terms of clarifying and making more popular traditional Roman religion without alienating fringe groups. Since he gave support to the Jews he wasn't going to be too strict, unless that was purely diplomatic which it might be. But then a reinvigorated pagan structure could later on start getting restrictive itself. It's important to understand that Julian’s reforms would create a definitive version of the religio romana rather than simply restoring the old ways. It’s impossible to go back to the old ways which Julian understood and was never his goal to do so at all. What Julian intended to do was to use a standard form of the religio romana as the ‘base’ of the reformed religion but with Neoplatonism as its underlying structure complete with an ecclesiastical hierarchy inspired by Christianity. Julian and perhaps many of his fellow Neoplatonist philosophers understood that universal religions like Christianity and Manichaeism had certain advantages which was important for propagating these faiths. The church hierarchy was one of these advantages along with a defined Orthodoxy that could allow these faiths to withstand competition with outside faiths. The Neoplatonism, which was the dominant philosophy of the time (even early Christians like Origen and St Augustine’s theologies were influenced by it), would be the encompassing structure of his religion. What this meant is that the many pagan gods of old would be regarded as different manifestations or emanations of The One (the ‘Source’ or the divine ‘Absolute’ from which all things originate). You mentioned that the pagan structure could later on get restrictive itself. This I agree. Julian’s reformed pagan ‘Orthodoxy’ would later on produce disagreements among different pagan factions and perhaps even schisms itself. Should the Empire and the pagan church survive, however, I can see the new pagan Orthodoxy to outlast many of the different schisms in much the same way Nicene Christianity outlasted Arianism. Of course, this can go in any direction. The unreformed religious traditions would certainly be tolerated, especially initially, but it would be Julian’s reformed paganism that would enjoy state sponsorship in contrast to the other traditions. In the end, Julian’s reforms would have fundamentally changed the religio romana that while it would have continuity with the old ways, it would be about as similar as modern Hinduism is to the Vedic religion prior to the Vedanta which I mentioned in the last post. The new religion would, properly implemented, have challenged Christianity (and other religions) for dominance in the Empire. Of course, this is all very ambitious and would have required Julian to reign for long enough to implement these reforms effectively which is difficult to do given Julian’s character. I think if Julian can avoid conflict with the Goths, who don't seem to have splintered into Visi and Ostro branches yet but I could be wrong, he might well end up clashing with the Huns, Especially if he seems to have the empire fairly secure he might be tempted to seek to restore the Goths to at least the former Dacia area, with Roman support as a buffer against steppe nomads. As you say that could be ideal conditions for the Sassanids to stir up trouble in the east. [Could be really nasty if they combines this with a Christian uprising!] Interesting point. A Gothic buffer against the Huns does seem sensible. It would be useful to use the Goths as auxiliaries against the Huns in much the same way Julian used Germanic auxiliaries in his Persian campaign. Assimilating the Goths could be useful for lessening the damage the barbarian migrations would do in the empire in the next century. Perhaps Julian could also use the Goths as loyal auxiliaries against the Sassanids during a Persian attack. A revolt by someone like Theodosius - more likely probably the elder although he doesn't seem to have become a significant figure until the mid 360s so possibly could be butterflied - could well be dangerous as he seems to have been a very skilled general. How much support he might have in the predominantly pagan west I don't know but if operating in the east that could be a serious problem. Although even a pagan general based in the west might be tempted by power.
Very true. Theodosius is an interesting character. If someone were to write a TL (I’m seriously considering writing a ‘Julian survives’ TL now!), a Theodosian revolt would be a good chapter that has Julian face a serious crisis during his reign. I can also imagine a pagan general in the west who doesn’t like Julian’s reforms to start a rebellion as well. Someone like Procopius or Salutius could be a useful co-emperor, simply to take care of one section of the empire while Julian is operating elsewhere. Not sure how good a general Procopius was but being trustworthy and honest would probably be more important that great military skill as long as their not totally incompetent either militarily or in governing areas. Wiki says very little on Salutius and there was at least two of the latter in this period. Might be some other generals or even largely civil figures who could be governors to maintain good law and order in regions will emerge. No doubt some dodgy or incompetent characters as well but that's always likely. Yes this seems likely. I don’t know if Julian would have a co-emperor or even have a son. Perhaps he may be like Basil II and not have a child or nominate a successful general as co-emperor. Perhaps not, but it’s difficult to reconstruct Julian’s motives in this regard. Judging by their wiki page the Hephthalites only really emerged ~450AD but they replaced the earlier Kidarites, who seem to have had a similar role but not as powerful as the Hephthalites. They were forced into alliance with the Sassanids and were present in the siege of Amida in 359 where their king lost his son. Unclear when this started but later the Sassanids had to pay them tribune to keep them quiet so you could see them causing the Sassanids problems for at least a while after the death of Shapur and many of this leading supporters in TTL at Ctesiphon possibly prompts them to rebel. The point about the Kidarites is interesting. The Kidarites could certainly keep the Sassanids busy and prevent them from attacking the Romans. No doubt the Romans would appreciate this. I can also see a major crisis develop among the Sassanids (for example a dynastic struggle) that would force the Kidarites to intervene and perhaps usurp the title of Shah of Iran from the Sassanid dynasty.
Agree that Armenia is likely to become an ally of the Sassanids in TTL, unless it can be persuaded to be a neutral, playing both sides for advantage. However can't see it abandoning Christianity and if it did it would be likely to revert to Zoroastrianism, the previous faith and that of the Sassanids. I agree. Armenia would most likely not abandon Christianity (apologies if my previous post was unclear). A neutral Armenia, or at least a pragmatic Armenia that plays both sides well would be a good compromise to both the Romans and Iranians and would ensure the continued survival of the Kingdom of Armenia. In this case, I can see an independent Armenia becoming a major Christian site of learning and pilgrimages in the future. If Julian’s pagan reforms succeed, Armenia and Aksum being the two major Christian areas would have interesting effects of the development of Christianity in the future. One thing I forgot to say yesterday. You did say that Julian ended his war with no border changes? I think this is unlikely if he has a big victory at Ctesiphon as I would expect him to seek to maintain control of Mesopotamia down to around Ctesiphon. Otherwise even with a big victory - and a number of smaller ones - and a lot of loot the war is going to look like a failure to many in the empire. I agree that there would be border changes after a successful Persian campaign. I specified no border changes only for the sake of argument to make things simple because taking a lot of Sassanid Mesopotamia would complicate matters in the east. It would definitely anger the Persians and would make a rematch extremely likely. Julian would be preoccupied with this problem for a significant part of his reign and I wanted to focus on domestic Roman affairs not just the Persians. Thank you for your response.
Glad to help .
a) As you say repeated revolts were all too common in this time period. Possibly the biggest benefit of a successful revival of older beliefs by Julian might be a new sense of loyalty to the empire which discourages at least some of them in the future.
It creates an interesting problem for the Nicene Christians especially. I don't think Julian would object to them organising a council inside the empire although he would probably want imperial authorities to have some input, if only to make clear that discrimination against other sects/branches wouldn't be allowed under imperial law, which could be a problem for them. However for Christian leaders inside the empire to arrange a council outside its boundaries could be seen as somewhat disloyal. Not just by the dynasty but also many imperial citizens.
Other than the Arians and Donastians I'm not sure what other prominent sects were about at this point. Think the big break with the populations of Syria and Egypt especially didn't start until the following century with Nestorians, Monophysians and Monophysians breaking off. However quite probably a few about.
b) Thanks for the details on what Julian planned. Sounds like its going to end up with something where basically the classical gods are elements of an fundamental sole god which could cause some unrest as well as probably ultimately having the same sort of problem that Christianity had with assorted fragmentary interpretations and growing intolerance between the assorted groups. Which could be as disruptive for the empire as Christianity was OTL. Probably not as you say during Julian's reign but it would be a danger later on.
As you say this all assumes that Julian is in control for quite a while, which he's young enough to but staying in power that long could be difficult.
c) Assimilating the Goths, or at least making them a friendly satellite would definitely be useful both in itself and also by setting a precedent for other tribes later on. Of course some could end up being treasonable but then if the empire treats them fairly I can see a lot favouring membership. If they are successfully used as a buffer in the Dacian region then I doubt they would be available, at least in significant numbers for the east, although it sounds like there was a fair number of others as mercenaries before the bulk crossed over in 375. If they can just, with a stronger Roman military under Julian, really hammer the Huns that could also be a huge advantage. Although even if the Huns are largely removed there will be another steppe group coming through sooner or later.
d) I could well see Theodosius the elder, if he manages to gain a significant military role, becoming a dangerous rebel. As you say there are likely to be some pagan rebels simply for reasons of personal gain, let alone any upset about the religious reforms.
e) Difficult to tell with Julian but if he did a Basil II, i.e. no heir either of his own or inherited, its likely to open up a nasty can of worms and a lot of problems as Basil did. Which was his great failing as emperor, without which Byzantium might still be going strong today, or at least have seen off the Turks. Julian definitely needs to sort out some sort of success else even if his reign is largely successful it could all fall apart without a stable succession. Don't know if he might try some variant of Diocletian's system with a co-emperor and a couple of junior emperors to support and succeed them. Mind you it didn't work long for Diocletian.
f) The Kidarites could cause the Sassanids problems, especially if the latter is in disorder at some stage. They don't sound as powerful as the Hephthalites who according to one video I saw recently are supposed to have basically forced the Sassanids into being their vassals although how accurate that is I don't know. [It could be that like the eastern empire later with the Huns they paid protection money to stop attacks.
g) I suspect that Armenia and Axum won't be the only Christian states emerging but its likely to be markedly less dominant than it was before the Islamic conquests. It could end up as a primarily Asian and E Africa religion if Julian is successful. Ironically without being the state religion of a great empire it might end up more decentralised and less autocratic.
h) I suspect Julian would want some clear gains and also that this would increase the already strong desire of the Sassanids for revenge.
Steve
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Post by CastilloVerde on Jan 20, 2021 3:36:45 GMT
Yes I expect many revolts too, especially considering this period of Late Antiquity. Not all these revolts would necessarily be religiously motivated, though. Regarding the Arians, Julian brought back exiled Arian bishops and proclaimed equality to all Christian sects, so there would certainly be tensions between Nicene Christians and Arians. This is important because a surviving Julian would also butterfly the First Council of Constantinople in AD 381. This council affirmed the condemnation of Arianism, defined that the Holy Spirit is co-equal with the Father and Son, and adopted the modified version of the Nicene Creed that is still used by the Orthodox today. Butterflying this council would thus have important effects on Christianity. Although, it would be interesting to have a similar council take place in Aksum or Armenia as the kings in those places were Christian. It's important to understand that Julian’s reforms would create a definitive version of the religio romana rather than simply restoring the old ways. It’s impossible to go back to the old ways which Julian understood and was never his goal to do so at all. What Julian intended to do was to use a standard form of the religio romana as the ‘base’ of the reformed religion but with Neoplatonism as its underlying structure complete with an ecclesiastical hierarchy inspired by Christianity. Julian and perhaps many of his fellow Neoplatonist philosophers understood that universal religions like Christianity and Manichaeism had certain advantages which was important for propagating these faiths. The church hierarchy was one of these advantages along with a defined Orthodoxy that could allow these faiths to withstand competition with outside faiths. The Neoplatonism, which was the dominant philosophy of the time (even early Christians like Origen and St Augustine’s theologies were influenced by it), would be the encompassing structure of his religion. What this meant is that the many pagan gods of old would be regarded as different manifestations or emanations of The One (the ‘Source’ or the divine ‘Absolute’ from which all things originate). You mentioned that the pagan structure could later on get restrictive itself. This I agree. Julian’s reformed pagan ‘Orthodoxy’ would later on produce disagreements among different pagan factions and perhaps even schisms itself. Should the Empire and the pagan church survive, however, I can see the new pagan Orthodoxy to outlast many of the different schisms in much the same way Nicene Christianity outlasted Arianism. Of course, this can go in any direction. The unreformed religious traditions would certainly be tolerated, especially initially, but it would be Julian’s reformed paganism that would enjoy state sponsorship in contrast to the other traditions. In the end, Julian’s reforms would have fundamentally changed the religio romana that while it would have continuity with the old ways, it would be about as similar as modern Hinduism is to the Vedic religion prior to the Vedanta which I mentioned in the last post. The new religion would, properly implemented, have challenged Christianity (and other religions) for dominance in the Empire. Of course, this is all very ambitious and would have required Julian to reign for long enough to implement these reforms effectively which is difficult to do given Julian’s character. Interesting point. A Gothic buffer against the Huns does seem sensible. It would be useful to use the Goths as auxiliaries against the Huns in much the same way Julian used Germanic auxiliaries in his Persian campaign. Assimilating the Goths could be useful for lessening the damage the barbarian migrations would do in the empire in the next century. Perhaps Julian could also use the Goths as loyal auxiliaries against the Sassanids during a Persian attack. Very true. Theodosius is an interesting character. If someone were to write a TL (I’m seriously considering writing a ‘Julian survives’ TL now!), a Theodosian revolt would be a good chapter that has Julian face a serious crisis during his reign. I can also imagine a pagan general in the west who doesn’t like Julian’s reforms to start a rebellion as well. Yes this seems likely. I don’t know if Julian would have a co-emperor or even have a son. Perhaps he may be like Basil II and not have a child or nominate a successful general as co-emperor. Perhaps not, but it’s difficult to reconstruct Julian’s motives in this regard. The point about the Kidarites is interesting. The Kidarites could certainly keep the Sassanids busy and prevent them from attacking the Romans. No doubt the Romans would appreciate this. I can also see a major crisis develop among the Sassanids (for example a dynastic struggle) that would force the Kidarites to intervene and perhaps usurp the title of Shah of Iran from the Sassanid dynasty. I agree. Armenia would most likely not abandon Christianity (apologies if my previous post was unclear). A neutral Armenia, or at least a pragmatic Armenia that plays both sides well would be a good compromise to both the Romans and Iranians and would ensure the continued survival of the Kingdom of Armenia. In this case, I can see an independent Armenia becoming a major Christian site of learning and pilgrimages in the future. If Julian’s pagan reforms succeed, Armenia and Aksum being the two major Christian areas would have interesting effects of the development of Christianity in the future. I agree that there would be border changes after a successful Persian campaign. I specified no border changes only for the sake of argument to make things simple because taking a lot of Sassanid Mesopotamia would complicate matters in the east. It would definitely anger the Persians and would make a rematch extremely likely. Julian would be preoccupied with this problem for a significant part of his reign and I wanted to focus on domestic Roman affairs not just the Persians. Thank you for your response.
Glad to help .
a) As you say repeated revolts were all too common in this time period. Possibly the biggest benefit of a successful revival of older beliefs by Julian might be a new sense of loyalty to the empire which discourages at least some of them in the future.
It creates an interesting problem for the Nicene Christians especially. I don't think Julian would object to them organising a council inside the empire although he would probably want imperial authorities to have some input, if only to make clear that discrimination against other sects/branches wouldn't be allowed under imperial law, which could be a problem for them. However for Christian leaders inside the empire to arrange a council outside its boundaries could be seen as somewhat disloyal. Not just by the dynasty but also many imperial citizens.
Other than the Arians and Donastians I'm not sure what other prominent sects were about at this point. Think the big break with the populations of Syria and Egypt especially didn't start until the following century with Nestorians, Monophysians and Monophysians breaking off. However quite probably a few about.
b) Thanks for the details on what Julian planned. Sounds like its going to end up with something where basically the classical gods are elements of an fundamental sole god which could cause some unrest as well as probably ultimately having the same sort of problem that Christianity had with assorted fragmentary interpretations and growing intolerance between the assorted groups. Which could be as disruptive for the empire as Christianity was OTL. Probably not as you say during Julian's reign but it would be a danger later on.
As you say this all assumes that Julian is in control for quite a while, which he's young enough to but staying in power that long could be difficult.
c) Assimilating the Goths, or at least making them a friendly satellite would definitely be useful both in itself and also by setting a precedent for other tribes later on. Of course some could end up being treasonable but then if the empire treats them fairly I can see a lot favouring membership. If they are successfully used as a buffer in the Dacian region then I doubt they would be available, at least in significant numbers for the east, although it sounds like there was a fair number of others as mercenaries before the bulk crossed over in 375. If they can just, with a stronger Roman military under Julian, really hammer the Huns that could also be a huge advantage. Although even if the Huns are largely removed there will be another steppe group coming through sooner or later.
d) I could well see Theodosius the elder, if he manages to gain a significant military role, becoming a dangerous rebel. As you say there are likely to be some pagan rebels simply for reasons of personal gain, let alone any upset about the religious reforms.
e) Difficult to tell with Julian but if he did a Basil II, i.e. no heir either of his own or inherited, its likely to open up a nasty can of worms and a lot of problems as Basil did. Which was his great failing as emperor, without which Byzantium might still be going strong today, or at least have seen off the Turks. Julian definitely needs to sort out some sort of success else even if his reign is largely successful it could all fall apart without a stable succession. Don't know if he might try some variant of Diocletian's system with a co-emperor and a couple of junior emperors to support and succeed them. Mind you it didn't work long for Diocletian.
f) The Kidarites could cause the Sassanids problems, especially if the latter is in disorder at some stage. They don't sound as powerful as the Hephthalites who according to one video I saw recently are supposed to have basically forced the Sassanids into being their vassals although how accurate that is I don't know. [It could be that like the eastern empire later with the Huns they paid protection money to stop attacks.
g) I suspect that Armenia and Axum won't be the only Christian states emerging but its likely to be markedly less dominant than it was before the Islamic conquests. It could end up as a primarily Asian and E Africa religion if Julian is successful. Ironically without being the state religion of a great empire it might end up more decentralised and less autocratic.
h) I suspect Julian would want some clear gains and also that this would increase the already strong desire of the Sassanids for revenge.
Steve
My apologies that I couldn’t reply sooner. Thanks again Steve for your response. Here are some comments on your response. a) Yes you’re probably right. Perhaps instead of an Ecumenical Council outside the empire, there would be synods or a local council that each autocephalous church convenes to sort out matters of doctrine, just like some did in OTL! b) You’re welcome This fundamental sole god (The One) is less an anthropomorphic god like Zeus, but more like the God of the Enlightenment-era Deists. However while I was writing this, I thought that this could very well be the start of doctrinal arguments within the reformed pagan church. Namely, the relationship between The One and the other pagan gods. No doubt other ‘schisms’ o other matters of doctrine would arise in the future. c) This makes sense. I do like the precedent of assimilating barbarian peoples. d) Very true. e) This would be difficult. Succession is the characteristic problem of the Romans (whether Classical or Byzantine). If I were to write a ‘Julian survives’ TL, I would have to plan some sort of succession plan for Rome. It probably won’t be introduced during Julian’s reign, but maybe after a few centuries or so. f) Yes. Once the Hephthalites come, though, the Sassanids would be in for some trouble. g) This is interesting. Probably Nubia, South Arabia and perhaps some nomadic peoples in the Asian steppe would convert to Christianity to go along with Aksum, Armenia and the smaller Caucasus states already Christian at this time. I think it could be interesting if parts of Indonesia and the Swahili coast becomes Christian due to influence from Christian South Arabian merchants. A Christianity that’s primarily Asian and East African would be intriguing to see. Of course, there would still be Christian minorities would still be found throughout the Mediterranean and Mesopotamia. h) I agree, especially because Julian regarded himself as the reincarnation of Alexander the Great. Hopefully, he doesn’t overstep his limits.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 20, 2021 12:34:43 GMT
Glad to help .
a) As you say repeated revolts were all too common in this time period. Possibly the biggest benefit of a successful revival of older beliefs by Julian might be a new sense of loyalty to the empire which discourages at least some of them in the future.
It creates an interesting problem for the Nicene Christians especially. I don't think Julian would object to them organising a council inside the empire although he would probably want imperial authorities to have some input, if only to make clear that discrimination against other sects/branches wouldn't be allowed under imperial law, which could be a problem for them. However for Christian leaders inside the empire to arrange a council outside its boundaries could be seen as somewhat disloyal. Not just by the dynasty but also many imperial citizens.
Other than the Arians and Donastians I'm not sure what other prominent sects were about at this point. Think the big break with the populations of Syria and Egypt especially didn't start until the following century with Nestorians, Monophysians and Monophysians breaking off. However quite probably a few about.
b) Thanks for the details on what Julian planned. Sounds like its going to end up with something where basically the classical gods are elements of an fundamental sole god which could cause some unrest as well as probably ultimately having the same sort of problem that Christianity had with assorted fragmentary interpretations and growing intolerance between the assorted groups. Which could be as disruptive for the empire as Christianity was OTL. Probably not as you say during Julian's reign but it would be a danger later on.
As you say this all assumes that Julian is in control for quite a while, which he's young enough to but staying in power that long could be difficult.
c) Assimilating the Goths, or at least making them a friendly satellite would definitely be useful both in itself and also by setting a precedent for other tribes later on. Of course some could end up being treasonable but then if the empire treats them fairly I can see a lot favouring membership. If they are successfully used as a buffer in the Dacian region then I doubt they would be available, at least in significant numbers for the east, although it sounds like there was a fair number of others as mercenaries before the bulk crossed over in 375. If they can just, with a stronger Roman military under Julian, really hammer the Huns that could also be a huge advantage. Although even if the Huns are largely removed there will be another steppe group coming through sooner or later.
d) I could well see Theodosius the elder, if he manages to gain a significant military role, becoming a dangerous rebel. As you say there are likely to be some pagan rebels simply for reasons of personal gain, let alone any upset about the religious reforms.
e) Difficult to tell with Julian but if he did a Basil II, i.e. no heir either of his own or inherited, its likely to open up a nasty can of worms and a lot of problems as Basil did. Which was his great failing as emperor, without which Byzantium might still be going strong today, or at least have seen off the Turks. Julian definitely needs to sort out some sort of success else even if his reign is largely successful it could all fall apart without a stable succession. Don't know if he might try some variant of Diocletian's system with a co-emperor and a couple of junior emperors to support and succeed them. Mind you it didn't work long for Diocletian.
f) The Kidarites could cause the Sassanids problems, especially if the latter is in disorder at some stage. They don't sound as powerful as the Hephthalites who according to one video I saw recently are supposed to have basically forced the Sassanids into being their vassals although how accurate that is I don't know. [It could be that like the eastern empire later with the Huns they paid protection money to stop attacks.
g) I suspect that Armenia and Axum won't be the only Christian states emerging but its likely to be markedly less dominant than it was before the Islamic conquests. It could end up as a primarily Asian and E Africa religion if Julian is successful. Ironically without being the state religion of a great empire it might end up more decentralised and less autocratic.
h) I suspect Julian would want some clear gains and also that this would increase the already strong desire of the Sassanids for revenge.
Steve
My apologies that I couldn’t reply sooner. Thanks again Steve for your response. Here are some comments on your response. a) Yes you’re probably right. Perhaps instead of an Ecumenical Council outside the empire, there would be synods or a local council that each autocephalous church convenes to sort out matters of doctrine, just like some did in OTL! b) You’re welcome This fundamental sole god (The One) is less an anthropomorphic god like Zeus, but more like the God of the Enlightenment-era Deists. However while I was writing this, I thought that this could very well be the start of doctrinal arguments within the reformed pagan church. Namely, the relationship between The One and the other pagan gods. No doubt other ‘schisms’ o other matters of doctrine would arise in the future. c) This makes sense. I do like the precedent of assimilating barbarian peoples. d) Very true. e) This would be difficult. Succession is the characteristic problem of the Romans (whether Classical or Byzantine). If I were to write a ‘Julian survives’ TL, I would have to plan some sort of succession plan for Rome. It probably won’t be introduced during Julian’s reign, but maybe after a few centuries or so. f) Yes. Once the Hephthalites come, though, the Sassanids would be in for some trouble. g) This is interesting. Probably Nubia, South Arabia and perhaps some nomadic peoples in the Asian steppe would convert to Christianity to go along with Aksum, Armenia and the smaller Caucasus states already Christian at this time. I think it could be interesting if parts of Indonesia and the Swahili coast becomes Christian due to influence from Christian South Arabian merchants. A Christianity that’s primarily Asian and East African would be intriguing to see. Of course, there would still be Christian minorities would still be found throughout the Mediterranean and Mesopotamia. h) I agree, especially because Julian regarded himself as the reincarnation of Alexander the Great. Hopefully, he doesn’t overstep his limits.
No problem. Reply when you have the time. Responding to some points.
b) Possibly Julian's reformed faith can, at least for a while, avoid what I think is the big error of the Abrahamic faiths. That it insists on be "The" [and hence the only] way. This means that all other options are at least wrong if not evil and hence to be repressed and similarly that the exact doctrine is vital [at least to those in power] so it often splinters so much. If Julian can present his revived religion as a way but not the only one it would go a long way to easing tension with other faiths - other than those such as Christianity which insists only it is the valid faith. [You have a similar thing with the Jews but then while they see other faiths as wrong they don't have the same impulse to insist on stamping out alternatives].
Classical Roman religion basically incorporated local deities as variants of their own gods which enabled locals to continue to identify with their own traditional figures which helped in keeping them happy and this could hopefully continue.
As I said there is the danger, especially if the revived faith becomes politically more important and hence attracts those who are after power, that leaders might seek to make it the lone rather than the recognised faith.
One other point that occurred. Would there still be a worship of the emperor, with an imperial cult, which was a factor in the latter empire. This is a subtly different thing from in the early empire when a dead emperor was deified.
c) Rome had a long tradition of using 'foreign' troops as auxiliaries and from what wiki says there seems to have been a fair number of Goths inside the empire prior to Fritigern bring a large number across the Danube to seek refuge from the Huns. When an emperor, I think one of the Severus dynasty, made all Roman subjects full citizens, allegedly so he could tax then all it robbed the military of a source of manpower as traditionally such people had served as auxiliaries with as one of the payments for this service being citizenship. Hence possibly why auxiliaries from beyond the empire became more attractive. Although back in the early days external people such as German mercenaries were used by emperors as part of their personal guards.
Either as mercenaries or as an 'allied' people holding lands across the Danube, especially say the Carpathian passes as a border Goths and other could provide useful manpower and treated correctly their loyalty could be won, at least in some cases.
e) The succession is a big problem in any monarchy. The early empire started off with the Julio-Claudian dynasty, then after it collapsed civil war for the throne. There was the period of the 5 'good' emperors, a number of dynasties, periods when generals seized the throne from predecessors, with many ruinous civil wars, which encouraged foreign intervention, whether barbarian raids or Persian attempts at conquest and in some cases even break-aways - Palmyra being the most famous case there. Especially with an empire so large and diverse, with multiple threats meaning a number of large military concentrations were required there was the danger of unrest. I remember reading that the increasing use of local border troops as opposed to legions stationed in concentrations say on the Rhine, Danube and Euphrates was less because it more more efficient at stopping attacks then because it removed the concentration of great power in generals and hence the temptation of rebellion to seize the throne. Diocletian produce his complex version with two emperors and two junior emperors which seemed logical but still failed very quickly. I don't think there is a 'good' solution and the latter empire in the east was almost always an hereditary one, albeit occasionally with powerful generals gaining the throne through adoption into the imperial dynasty. What Julian would have decided I don't know but I suspect that probably in the near future there would be a dynastic solution.
f) Of course the Hephthalites might be butterflied from having a period as a great power. Or the Kidarites could become a greater power themselves, either through producing a great leader or simply because the Sassanids weaken more than OTL. However there's always likely to be some tribe pushing down off the steppes to threaten both eastern Iran and the NW approach to India.
g) I could definitely see Christianity reaching India and from there other areas by sea, or even India overland. One thing with Julian reviving paganism is that the Sassanid view of Christianity could swing again. While they pushed Zoroastrianism as the faith of the empire they didn't exclude other faiths. Christianity was initially welcomed as something Rome sometimes persecuted and there were significant Christian populations in Mesopotamia, Then after Constantinople made it the faith of Rome it was mistrusted and persecuted to a degree. With it losing position in the Roman empire the Sassanids could be markedly more favourable to it again, especially since that might gain them influence in Armenia and Axum. As such there might be an overland route into the east, including central Asia as well as a maritime route. Christianity is unlikely to make prominent progress in Iran but could become a competitor with Hinduism and Buddhism in the east.
One other factor here is that the most prominent strongholds of Christianity in the empire at this point were I believe Syria and Egypt. Given how prone the empire was to disorder one possible break away region would be that area and possibly others, under a Christian empire. A kind of later Palmyra but probably with its capital at Antioch or Alexandria. Of course this could then prompt another reversal of the Sassanids as now their western neighbour is Christian.
h) IIRC I had read that he used Alexander as an inspiration and example to follow to demonstrate the power of his religion. If he actually thought he was Alexander reborn that would be dangerous. With a large but divided empire behind him he can't spend a decade conquering the east, even if he had the forces and military ability. [He was a good possibly very good if perhaps too impulsive general but I don't think he had the military genius and probably fanaticism of Alexander]. Such a belief could well be fatal for him and his cause as its very likely to prompt him, even if he defeated Shapur, to push deep into Iran which is likely to lead to an even worse defeat than OTL.
Anyway meant a short response but blathered on again. Sorry.
Steve
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