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Post by La Rouge Beret on Dec 14, 2020 8:19:12 GMT
Something that I've been toying with for a different timeline, is how could the Philippines & Spain come to an amicable agreement around much greater autonomy or decolonisation by 1898? Ideally, whatever POD that could be identified would involve Jose Rizal remaining alive, as with the man's abilities I think he could have left a positive parliamentary legacy. My timeline was where Philippine independence was guaranteed or supported by a number of other powers, as IMHO a neutral Philippines is a better outcome for most colonial powers. While I understand the appeal of a republic, what could be a possible reason for a Philippine monarchy and who could be the royal family. A Philippine friend explained the concept of the Principalia and were there any leading families that could have provided suitable candidates?  |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Dec 14, 2020 15:05:19 GMT
This would mean the Spanish Crown would initiate reforms in the Philippine political system. I remember Rizal did not want independence but reform in the sense that Filipinos could take part in Spanish political affairs and be granted more freedoms. His survival is needed. However, we'd see other European powers, the Japanese, and the Americans eyeing to get the Philippines in one way or another. The islands are too valuable in the sense of being a strategic archipelago with lots of natural resources.
What would be interesting is how would the Philippines be like by the time of the Spanish Civil War.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 14, 2020 16:20:30 GMT
This would mean the Spanish Crown would initiate reforms in the Philippine political system. I remember Rizal did not want independence but reform in the sense that Filipinos could take part in Spanish political affairs and be granted more freedoms. His survival is needed. However, we'd see other European powers, the Japanese, and the Americans eyeing to get the Philippines in one way or another. The islands are too valuable in the sense of being a strategic archipelago with lots of natural resources. What would be interesting is how would the Philippines be like by the time of the Spanish Civil War.
If you mean the OTL 1936-39 conflict then a butterfly that's enough to maintain a Spanish presence in the Philippines probably means no Spanish-American war in 1898 which would have impacts on its own. A Spain that is willing to allow a lot of local self-government in the Philippines let alone a say in Madrid, is a huge difference that will impact on both events inside Spain itself over the next half century but could also mean similar policies in Cuba and elsewhere.
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Post by La Rouge Beret on Dec 15, 2020 4:29:20 GMT
You know I briefly toyed with the Carlists winning one of their many wars during the 19th century, which would also be predicated on Spain retaining control of at least one colony in the New World. I've seen Peru usually bandied about for instance, which could reduce the drop in prestige & possibly revenue inflows.
All in all I think Carlist ideology lends itself to allowing greater Philippine autonomy, provided it is couched in the right terms. Which the polymath Jose Rizal would be able to do so.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Dec 15, 2020 5:56:31 GMT
Avoid Polavieja from becoming Governor General of the Philippines and keep Ramon Blanco around. Blanco might have been sympathetic to Rizal. Although if the Philippines was kept as an autonomous colony of Spain, you'd butterfly the destruction of the Spanish Navy, which in turn would have been a major game changer. Francisco Franco would have been a navy officer instead of an army officer if the Spanish Navy wasn't destroyed in a war with the US.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Dec 15, 2020 9:03:46 GMT
Agree with TheRomanSlayer. Spain retaining her navy would produce a lot of butterflies for the 20th century. WWI and WWII would look very different. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 15, 2020 11:14:15 GMT
Agree with TheRomanSlayer . Spain retaining her navy would produce a lot of butterflies for the 20th century. WWI and WWII would look very different.
Agreed even if somehow you get the same spark for WWI which would very likely not occur.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 15, 2020 11:22:30 GMT
You know I briefly toyed with the Carlists winning one of their many wars during the 19th century, which would also be predicated on Spain retaining control of at least one colony in the New World. I've seen Peru usually bandied about for instance, which could reduce the drop in prestige & possibly revenue inflows. All in all I think Carlist ideology lends itself to allowing greater Philippine autonomy, provided it is couched in the right terms. Which the polymath Jose Rizal would be able to do so.
The problem is the 1st Carlist war didn't happen until 1833-40 and Peru, which i think was the last Spanish stronghold on the mainland, secured its independence on 1824 so I don't see the basis for Peru staying under Spanish rule. Unless for some reason you have a more reactionary Britain not blocking the French plan for an alliance of conservative European powers to restore Spanish rule in Latin America. This would probably lead to conflict with the US as well if they started trying restoring Spanish rule to Mexico especially. [The US wouldn't be able to do much at this point but could be a continual source of supplies for prolonged unrest in the Spanish colonies and I can't see the situation being stable at all. But even an option like this would have huge butterflies, far beyond the Philippines.
Given that the Carlists are from what I read overall far more autocratic than their opponents would they be more willing to given support to greater autonomy in the islands?
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Dec 15, 2020 11:27:52 GMT
Agree with TheRomanSlayer . Spain retaining her navy would produce a lot of butterflies for the 20th century. WWI and WWII would look very different.
Agreed even if somehow you get the same spark for WWI which would very likely not occur.
The "World War I" or the "Great War" here would probably be sparked by something else such as Japan clashing with the U.S. over the territory of Hawaii or the tensions in Balkans. For it to be Archduke Franz Ferdinand to be in the same route where Princip would shoot him is 1% likely. |
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Post by stevep on Dec 15, 2020 11:45:22 GMT
Agreed even if somehow you get the same spark for WWI which would very likely not occur.
The "World War I" or the "Great War" here would probably be sparked by something else such as Japan clashing with the U.S. over the territory of Hawaii or the tensions in Balkans. For it to be Archduke Franz Ferdinand to be in the same route where Princip would shoot him is 1% likely.
Agreed, although a war between Japan and the US is unlikely to end up as a global war since I suspect that, barring one of the combatants being extremely stupid I can't see might likelihood of any European power, even Britain which has the widest range of interests being dragged into it. The Balkans are a far more likely trigger for a global conflict, as Bismarck himself warned. Although a slightly different 1st Balkan War - which in that situation would probably be the only Balkan war - could drastically change the entire balance of power in the war. I suspect your probably over-estimating the change of FF being assassinated by a Serbian extremist, let alone it being by Princip.  |
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Post by La Rouge Beret on Dec 15, 2020 23:58:05 GMT
You know I briefly toyed with the Carlists winning one of their many wars during the 19th century, which would also be predicated on Spain retaining control of at least one colony in the New World. I've seen Peru usually bandied about for instance, which could reduce the drop in prestige & possibly revenue inflows. All in all I think Carlist ideology lends itself to allowing greater Philippine autonomy, provided it is couched in the right terms. Which the polymath Jose Rizal would be able to do so. The problem is the 1st Carlist war didn't happen until 1833-40 and Peru, which i think was the last Spanish stronghold on the mainland, secured its independence on 1824 so I don't see the basis for Peru staying under Spanish rule. Unless for some reason you have a more reactionary Britain not blocking the French plan for an alliance of conservative European powers to restore Spanish rule in Latin America. This would probably lead to conflict with the US as well if they started trying restoring Spanish rule to Mexico especially. [The US wouldn't be able to do much at this point but could be a continual source of supplies for prolonged unrest in the Spanish colonies and I can't see the situation being stable at all. But even an option like this would have huge butterflies, far beyond the Philippines. Given that the Carlists are from what I read overall far more autocratic than their opponents would they be more willing to given support to greater autonomy in the islands?
The Carlists are an interesting bunch, but the key part of their eclectic mix of belief was that of regional autonomy, which in their case they applied to IIRC a couple of regions. I think an acceptance of regional autonomy could provide enough of a 'win' to quell separatist feelings within the Philippines for some time. Eventually, I think they will seek independence and, how this is managed is anyone's guess. If Spain becomes a republic, than that could be used as the trigger for independence. Tell me more about this French plan to facilitate the return of Spanish control of Latin America? I remember reading in a Sharpe book no less, about a hare brained scheme to install Napoleon as Emperor in South America. Which would be so much fun as an author that I can't even fathom it. |
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Post by stevep on Dec 16, 2020 16:53:41 GMT
The problem is the 1st Carlist war didn't happen until 1833-40 and Peru, which i think was the last Spanish stronghold on the mainland, secured its independence on 1824 so I don't see the basis for Peru staying under Spanish rule. Unless for some reason you have a more reactionary Britain not blocking the French plan for an alliance of conservative European powers to restore Spanish rule in Latin America. This would probably lead to conflict with the US as well if they started trying restoring Spanish rule to Mexico especially. [The US wouldn't be able to do much at this point but could be a continual source of supplies for prolonged unrest in the Spanish colonies and I can't see the situation being stable at all. But even an option like this would have huge butterflies, far beyond the Philippines. Given that the Carlists are from what I read overall far more autocratic than their opponents would they be more willing to given support to greater autonomy in the islands?
The Carlists are an interesting bunch, but the key part of their eclectic mix of belief was that of regional autonomy, which in their case they applied to IIRC a couple of regions. I think an acceptance of regional autonomy could provide enough of a 'win' to quell separatist feelings within the Philippines for some time. Eventually, I think they will seek independence and, how this is managed is anyone's guess. If Spain becomes a republic, than that could be used as the trigger for independence. Tell me more about this French plan to facilitate the return of Spanish control of Latin America? I remember reading in a Sharpe book no less, about a hare brained scheme to install Napoleon as Emperor in South America. Which would be so much fun as an author that I can't even fathom it.
Ah that could have been why they seemed to have been popular in areas such as Catalonia and the Basque region.
I think there was actually a plan to try and 'rescue' Napoleon from St Helena although he died before it came to anything. IIRC this was less to return him to France than as you say to have him lead the rebellion against Spanish rule in Latin America. Although checking the wiki entry, see Exile_on_Saint_Helena it says
Been trying to search wiki for the French plans I've heard about before but can't find much. What I recall reading in the past was that the ultra-conservative Bourbon monarchy in France sought, with some backing from other conservative states in Europe to help restore Spanish rule over their colonies in Latin America. Britain opposed this and made clear that the RN would block such a move. It also sought a joint declaration with the US on the issue but President Madison rejected this as he saw it as " the US rowboat being drawn behind the British man of war" or something very likely this. He responded with what became known as the Monroe doctrine although at the time it was very much an empty motion as the US had no real power to prevent any such intervention by the European continental powers.
The best I can find on the issue is comments on George Canning during his period as British Foreign secretary and his policy on Latin America, see George_Canning_Latin_America. Canning was possibly the most influential liberal of the time but unfortunately died only a few months after becoming PM in 1827. [Although many in his [Tory] party refused to service under him and the king [George IV] was also a bitter opponent so how much he could have achieved if he had lived longer is open for debate. The above link includes the lines
Hope that helps but can't find much more. It may be that the French plans would have failed anyway and think they would have been a continued resource sink for France and Spain so would probably have only delayed matters without British opposition and probably have resulted in an earlier fall of the Bourbon monarchy in France and possibly Spain as well.
Steve
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