The Philippines if the USA already owned all of North America

The topic at hand is the fate of the Philippines in a TL where the USA acquired Cuba (and the rest of North America) before it acquired a strategic interest or the ability of force projection in the Pacific, and hence the Spanish-American War and US conquest of the Archipelago as we know them were not going to occur.

ITTL the USA gradually annexed all of North America (except NFL, PEI, Haiti, and the Anglo-French West Indies) in the period between the ARW and the mid-late 19th century. It acquired Quebec, Nova Scotia, and Ontario during the ARW, Rupert's Land and the Pacific Northwest a little later by purchase, negotiation, or war. It intervened in the Latin American Wars of Independence and got Cuba, St. Domingo, and Puerto Rico. It annexed Northern Mexico as a result of the Mexican-American War, and Central-Southern Mexico after its intervention in the French invasion of Mexico. It acquired Central America by various means (filibuster, negotiation, military intervention). It built both the Nicaragua and Panama Canals. Slavery never took root or was abolished in the Upper South either because of a stronger free section limiting its territorial expansion, or the states decided to enact gradual emancipation on their own initiative. The acquisitions of Louisiana, Alaska, and Hawaii went much the same way, except for Russia throwing Chukotka, Magadan, and Kamchatka in the bargain (the Russians expected to get Greater Manchuria as a better alternative, but Japan got in the way).

The slavery issue was possibly settled peacefully by the Deep South and Caribbean slave states reluctantly coming to accept gradual emancipation as inevitable. In such a case, America settled the social legacy of slavery by the population transfer of the vast majoity of freedmen and free Blacks to West Africa. Alternatively, the slaveocrat elites decided to try secession the usual way despite bad odds because of the correct expectation that Britain, France, and Spain would intervene to support the CSA and cut down America one notch. However, the outraged Union mobilized its resources and flexed its muscles to crush the Confederates and defeat their foreign allies. The unholy compact of slaver traitors and foreign invaders conspiring to destroy the American experiment drove the Union to enact radical Reconstruction, snuffing out legal segregation and disenfranchisement of Blacks in their cradle. This paved the way to integration of freedmen in American society and development of a Black middle class, albeit with the vast majority of Blacks staying in the bottom level of the US social pyramid and with private bigotry against them remaining socially respectable and tolerated by law. 

Britain compensated itself for the near-complete loss of North America by seizing the Dutch East Indies and South Africa (quite possibly the Southern Cone too) during the Napoleonic Wars. It later cooperated with Germany to partition the Portuguese colonial empire. The 1848-49 Revolutions were mostly successful, leading to the collapse of the Habsburg Empire, the unifications of Germany, Italy, and Scandinavia, the independence of Hungary and Poland, and the rise of the liberal CP bloc. France went the usual Napoleonic way and got its butt kicked worse than usual in the equivalent of the Franco-Prussian War (similar dynamic, different casus belli) expanded to Italy, losing Alsace, Lorraine, Luxemburg, Savoy, Nice, the French Riviera, and Corsica. 

Japan modernized slightly earlier and even more successfully than OTL, paving the way to acquisition of Korea in the 1870s-1880s, Inner Manchuria, Taiwan, and Hainan in the (earlier) Sino-Japanese War, Outer Manchuria and Karafuto in the (earlier) Russo-Japanese War. The Japanese Empire went more liberal than OTL due to CP-US influence and successfully integrated the overseas territories through a mix of settler colonization, enfranchisement and socio-economic development, cultural assimilation, and merger of Japanese and Korean elites. 

Spain went more or less the same way as OTL, including its gradual decline and decay of its grip on the Philippines all the way to an anti-colonial rebellion. However, simple decolonization and independence of the Archipelago as a result of revolution is very unlikely, since before the American intervention Spain even in its weakened state had crushed the Filipino revolutionaries. Moreover, the Archipelago was too much of a valuable booty for stronger expansionist powers, the rest of Southeast Asia was falling to colonialism, and the end of the 19th century was the apex of imperialism. Decolonization was simply not in the cards yet for non-Whites (failing to modernize and industrialize has consequences), barring the Japanese 'if you can't beat them, imitate them' successful exception. What might happen then? I see a few likely possibilities.

Japan has got a satisfying amount of valuable land, resources, and strategic depth in Northeast Asia, and its main strategic focus settled on developing and defending the area from a possible comeback of Russia and China. Nonetheless, the Japanese may well turn to regard the Philippines as a low-hanging fruit, b/c of Spain's weakness and anti-colonial unrest giving them a pretext, according to their 'Asia for the Asians' doctrine. Defeating Spain is going to be a walk in the park for the victors of the Russo-Japanese War. If we look at OTL as an analogy, the easiest outcome of Japanese conquest of the Philippines might be its becoming a client state of Japan, as a possible seed for the Greater Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, if and when favorable conditions materialize for expansion of Japanese influence in the rest of Southeast Asia (such as the European powers getting involved in the World Wars).

TTL liberal Meji-Taisho Japan is going to be a much less brutal imperialist overlord than its OTL Showa self. Therefore, the GACPS is going to be less of a figleaf and more of a genuine EU-style project, although the Japanese Empire is always going to call the shots in the union. Alternatively, Japan may well annex and gradually integrate the Philippines like the rest of its overseas territories, also b/c ITTL there is no Manchukuo precedent. Greater Manchuria was directly annexed by Japan, since the Qing were still in charge of China and more importantly early conquest prevented or undid Han and Russian settlement in the region, leaving it sparsely populated and ripe for extensive Japanese-Korean colonization. However, this seems less easy b/c of greater ethnic, cultural, and religious differences as well as a larger socio-economic gap between the Japanese and the Filipinos, in comparison to the Koreans. 

The USA may well be a good candidate to grab the Philippines all the same, despite the need for a different casus belli. By the turn of the century, it is done absorbing North America and getting an appetite for economic and strategic expansion in the Pacific (unless it is too distracted by events in South America). Much like Japan, anti-colonial unrest in the Archipelago may become a good excuse for intervention. US conquest is going to be even easier than OTL. Since TTL America is more liberal, multi-cultural, and expansionist than OTL, its sponsorship of the Philippines' independence does not seem in the cards, but the Philippine-American War may well be averted or greatly toned down by early political compromise and the Filipino revolutionaries taking a more pro-US stance. The natural outcome seems establishment of the Commonwealth of the Philippines associated state relationship with the USA, with no promise or expectation of independence. This settlement may well become lasting or (perhaps more likely) become the preparatory stage to US statehood in a few decades. Since TTL USA absorbed all of North America, there is no good reason why it cannot do the same with the Philippines, of course after bringing the Archipelago up to speed with US standards and reorganizing it in a suitable number of states (the same happened to Mexico). 

Britain got a second Indian Raj with the union of Malesia and the DEI and has no good reason to meddle with the Philippines. Thanks to early unification and being stronger than OTL, Germany and Italy were able to stand up to Britain and France in the Scramble for Africa as equal competitors and build sizable colonial empires in the continent. Germany got Mittelafrika and Morocco, Italy got Tunisia, Libya, the Horn of Africa, Kenya, and Uganda. They are more satisfied colonial powers than OTL, Southeast Asia is not so relevant to their interests, and a CP intervention in the Philippines not that likely. A possible exception would be if the Germans and the Italians pushed France out of Indochina and seized its assets after the war. This might well become a springboard for German-Italian expansion in the Philippines and Siam. This would in all likelihood involve a partition or co-dominium of the area. 

France may well be another good candidate to grab the Philippines. TTL defeat left it even more humiliated and with greater losses than OTL, and hence with even more of an urge to compensate by colonial expansion. Moreover, German-Italian strength and influence blocked French expansion in most of North Africa and Central Africa, limiting its African gains to Algeria, most of West Africa, and Madagascar. If the French were able to keep and expand in Indochina as well after the war, they are sure to grab Siam too and likely regard the Philippines as a tempting target. Unlike Japan and America, they are unlikely to pick anti-colonialism as a pretext, but I am sure some half-decent excuse for war can be found in Paris. Differently from the other likely colonial-war cases, France and Spain do share a land border, which creates more interesting possibilities.

TTL uber-revanchist France is surely on the lookout for means to increase its strength vs. the superior CP bloc. Absorbing Spain in a 'Gallic Union' would be a feasible way of doing it, and it would net the Philippines by default. This seems especially likely if France went right-wing authoritarian and restored the Bourbon on the throne as figureheads for proto-fascism. Dynastic circumstances would then create favorable circumstances for a Franco-Spanish personal union if the French sponsor the Legitimist/Carlist pretenders for both thrones. The French fascists may then use the Spanish Carlists and conservatives as a power base for a takeover, with things turning out like a combo of the Carlist Wars, the Spanish Civil War, and the 1823 invasion. Due to the presence of a sizable and ideologically-motivated Spanish fifth column, a repeat of the Peninsular War widespread resistance is unlikely. 

China is in even worse trouble than OTL due to a combo of its usual domestic woes and even worse colonialist encroachment (due to the foreign powers being stronger and/or more motivated to grab a piece of its pie), which in all likelihood makes the Qing failure and downfall even more traumatic and damaging. It shall be several decades before it is in any shape to project influence in its coutyard, barring a miracle recovery at the hands of super-successful reformist monarchists, Nationalists, or Communists (assuming they become a thing ITTL). Russia pretty much lost all access to the Pacific except for the mediocre Okhotsk avenue (and is all but sure to grab Xinjiang and Greater Mongolia to compensate), so it is powerless to project influence in East Asia, except as it concerns trying to gain control of China proper as a proxy through their shared border.