stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 7, 2021 13:08:55 GMT
Here's one from an alternate history scenario I'm covering on another forum:  To give this map a bit of context: - Brexit never happened (there was a very narrow Remain victory in the referendum);
- David Cameron stayed on as Prime Minister, although once his term expired, he didn't run for another one;
- Going into this election, the Conservative leader is Theresa May. She's running on a platform of 'soft Euroscepticism' (where she respects the Remain victory in the referendum, and therefore advocates continued membership of the EU - but, she opposes certain EU policies);
- Both Labour and the Conservatives lose a lot of their 'Leave' voters to UKIP. My guess is that UKIP is getting about 50-60% of the 'Leave' vote here, and about 25-30% of the popular vote overall (though they're underrepresented compared to Labour and the Tories, because first past the post is screwing them over). Indeed, in some constituencies, UKIP hasn't taken enough votes away from the Tories to win the seat outright... but they *have* taken away enough votes to throw the seat to Labour or the Lib Dems! (Though, I'm not so sure about Scarborough and Whitby going to Labour, or Yeovil going to the Lib Dems: the former probably had a non-negligible Labour-Leave vote, while the latter probably had a non-negligible Lib Dem-Leave vote. Maybe the local UKIP candidates had scandals or something
 )
Interesting scenario? Who is the Labour leader? If its still Corbyn then we have three large parties, all with pretty extreme groups in charge of them which is likely to lead to chaos and even more bad government. I can't see UKIP agreeing with Labour so expect there would be some kind of Tory-UKIP coalition, or at least some agreements. However would UKIP agree to anything without a new referendum, which could be a hard sell to both the Tories who dodged a bullet here? Even then its going to be a slim majority even assuming they probably get the Unionists supporting them under most circumstances.
Unless a lot of the UKIP support from former Tories has moderated that party a lot and Labour, with a moderate post-Corbyn leader then you might just have some agreement between those parties. That would be pretty unstable I think. May was basically a pro-EU figure, albeit not outspokenly so but the ingrown hostility between the two parties would be difficult to overcome.
Either way I would suspect a new election wouldn't be too far away.
For Yeovil did you mean leave or remain given how deeply the remain bloc has dug into the Libdems? There used to be some skeptic elements in the SW, especially among the fishing community and a couple of the 1st MEP's for the party in 92 were of that alignment but I think their been pretty much eradicated nowadays.
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 8, 2021 22:33:48 GMT
How, right up until the very end, I thought 2020 in the US would go. I knew Arizona was sliding away and Michigan lost for Trump but I thought he had PA, WI and especially GA in the bag. It would have been Trump 278 - 260 Biden.  (click on image to enlarge) |
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Post by american2006 on Feb 8, 2021 22:44:23 GMT
How, right up until the very end, I thought 2020 in the US would go. I knew Arizona was sliding away and Michigan lost for Trump but I thought he had PA, WI and especially GA in the bag. It would have been Trump 278 - 260 Biden. View Attachment(click on image to enlarge) Intresting. I had Nevada and Wisconsin flipping from 2016, but alas I was wrong. If you had told me Florida and North Carolina went red, I woulda said Georgia woulda too. Still surprised by Georgia. |
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Post by american2006 on Feb 8, 2021 22:58:01 GMT
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 9, 2021 9:37:07 GMT
How, right up until the very end, I thought 2020 in the US would go. I knew Arizona was sliding away and Michigan lost for Trump but I thought he had PA, WI and especially GA in the bag. It would have been Trump 278 - 260 Biden. View Attachment(click on image to enlarge) Intresting. I had Nevada and Wisconsin flipping from 2016, but alas I was wrong. If you had told me Florida and North Carolina went red, I woulda said Georgia woulda too. Still surprised by Georgia. Stacey Abrams made Georgia happen. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 9, 2021 9:45:11 GMT
Intresting. I had Nevada and Wisconsin flipping from 2016, but alas I was wrong. If you had told me Florida and North Carolina went red, I woulda said Georgia woulda too. Still surprised by Georgia. Stacey Abrams made Georgia happen.
Yes it appeared she managed to get a lot more people registered who had been discouraged/barred before. That seems to have made a significant different, both in the presidential election and the two Senate run-offs.
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kyng
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Post by kyng on Feb 13, 2021 18:55:02 GMT
Here's one from an alternate history scenario I'm covering on another forum: To give this map a bit of context: - Brexit never happened (there was a very narrow Remain victory in the referendum);
- David Cameron stayed on as Prime Minister, although once his term expired, he didn't run for another one;
- Going into this election, the Conservative leader is Theresa May. She's running on a platform of 'soft Euroscepticism' (where she respects the Remain victory in the referendum, and therefore advocates continued membership of the EU - but, she opposes certain EU policies);
- Both Labour and the Conservatives lose a lot of their 'Leave' voters to UKIP. My guess is that UKIP is getting about 50-60% of the 'Leave' vote here, and about 25-30% of the popular vote overall (though they're underrepresented compared to Labour and the Tories, because first past the post is screwing them over). Indeed, in some constituencies, UKIP hasn't taken enough votes away from the Tories to win the seat outright... but they *have* taken away enough votes to throw the seat to Labour or the Lib Dems! (Though, I'm not so sure about Scarborough and Whitby going to Labour, or Yeovil going to the Lib Dems: the former probably had a non-negligible Labour-Leave vote, while the latter probably had a non-negligible Lib Dem-Leave vote. Maybe the local UKIP candidates had scandals or something )
Interesting scenario? Who is the Labour leader? If its still Corbyn then we have three large parties, all with pretty extreme groups in charge of them which is likely to lead to chaos and even more bad government. I can't see UKIP agreeing with Labour so expect there would be some kind of Tory-UKIP coalition, or at least some agreements. However would UKIP agree to anything without a new referendum, which could be a hard sell to both the Tories who dodged a bullet here? Even then its going to be a slim majority even assuming they probably get the Unionists supporting them under most circumstances.
Unless a lot of the UKIP support from former Tories has moderated that party a lot and Labour, with a moderate post-Corbyn leader then you might just have some agreement between those parties. That would be pretty unstable I think. May was basically a pro-EU figure, albeit not outspokenly so but the ingrown hostility between the two parties would be difficult to overcome.
Either way I would suspect a new election wouldn't be too far away.
For Yeovil did you mean leave or remain given how deeply the remain bloc has dug into the Libdems? There used to be some skeptic elements in the SW, especially among the fishing community and a couple of the 1st MEP's for the party in 92 were of that alignment but I think their been pretty much eradicated nowadays.
Yeah, Corbyn is still the Labour leader here. As with May, he respects the result of the referendum and isn't pushing for a new one - although, he obviously isn't an enthusiastic, die-hard Remainer. (Still, that's probably where the common ground between May and Corbyn ends ). My guess is that a Tory-UKIP coalition is indeed the most likely outcome: it's the only one where the two parties have enough common ground for the coalition to be stable. I don't expect there will be a second referendum right away (the Tories under May would be unlikely to agree to that); however, I can see the coalition deal including a clause that "There will be a second referendum under X, Y and Z circumstances" (e.g. if the EU does anything to increase its power, against the will of the UK). Still, they only have 328 seats between them, which gives them a majority of only 4 (and maybe a working majority of about 10 or 11 once you account for Sinn Féin not taking their seats and the Speaker not voting except to break a tie). If by-elections don't go their way, they could be forced to rely on confidence and supply from the DUP again (or maybe they're coalition partners from the beginning to give them a bigger majority? UKIP and the DUP would disagree strongly over their exact vision of Brexit - but, that's less important in this scenario, because 'Brexit' is all strictly hypothetical in the wake of a Remain victory!) For Yeovil, the results in the 2015 election (i.e. the last one prior to this alternate one) were as follows: 42.5% Conservative, 33.1% Lib Dem, 13.4% UKIP, 7.1% Labour, 3.8% Green. It's estimated that 30% of 2015 Lib Dem voters voted Leave (which is easy to forget considering how much of a pro-EU turn the party took in the following years). So, if we take 30% of 33.1%... then, that gives us a crude estimate of about 9.93% of Yeovil's electorate being "Lib Dem 2015, Leave 2016" voters. Obviously, that could be several percentage points out either way; however, when you consider that an estimated 59.2% of Yeovil's voters voted Leave, and at least some of the Tory voters in this constituency will have voted Remain... it doesn't seem implausible. If anything, I suspect my 9.93% is more likely to be an underestimate of the "Lib Dem-Leave" vote than an overestimate of it. Now that I've done that back-of-the-envelope calculation, it's hard to see the Lib Dems winning the seat back in my alternate election. Some of that Lib Dem-Leave vote would have gone to UKIP, and the Tory-Remain vote would have largely stayed with the Tories (in OTL, some of it would have gone to the Lib Dems in 2017 and 2019 - but even with that, the Lib Dems dropped to 29.7% in 2017, and only recovered to 31.1% in 2019). If the Lib Dem vote falls below 30%, then they really don't have a chance IMO - since I expect either the Tory vote or the UKIP vote (or even both!) will be over 30% here. Maybe there's a very small window where they get a result like "Lib Dem 29.8%, UKIP 29.5%, Conservative 29.0%", with the other parties taking the rest - but, it really is a very small window. If I revise this map at any point, then I probably won't give the Lib Dems so many seats, and this is probably one of the ones I'll change . |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 14, 2021 11:44:49 GMT
Interesting scenario? Who is the Labour leader? If its still Corbyn then we have three large parties, all with pretty extreme groups in charge of them which is likely to lead to chaos and even more bad government. I can't see UKIP agreeing with Labour so expect there would be some kind of Tory-UKIP coalition, or at least some agreements. However would UKIP agree to anything without a new referendum, which could be a hard sell to both the Tories who dodged a bullet here? Even then its going to be a slim majority even assuming they probably get the Unionists supporting them under most circumstances.
Unless a lot of the UKIP support from former Tories has moderated that party a lot and Labour, with a moderate post-Corbyn leader then you might just have some agreement between those parties. That would be pretty unstable I think. May was basically a pro-EU figure, albeit not outspokenly so but the ingrown hostility between the two parties would be difficult to overcome.
Either way I would suspect a new election wouldn't be too far away.
For Yeovil did you mean leave or remain given how deeply the remain bloc has dug into the Libdems? There used to be some skeptic elements in the SW, especially among the fishing community and a couple of the 1st MEP's for the party in 92 were of that alignment but I think their been pretty much eradicated nowadays.
Yeah, Corbyn is still the Labour leader here. As with May, he respects the result of the referendum and isn't pushing for a new one - although, he obviously isn't an enthusiastic, die-hard Remainer. (Still, that's probably where the common ground between May and Corbyn ends ). My guess is that a Tory-UKIP coalition is indeed the most likely outcome: it's the only one where the two parties have enough common ground for the coalition to be stable. I don't expect there will be a second referendum right away (the Tories under May would be unlikely to agree to that); however, I can see the coalition deal including a clause that "There will be a second referendum under X, Y and Z circumstances" (e.g. if the EU does anything to increase its power, against the will of the UK). Still, they only have 328 seats between them, which gives them a majority of only 4 (and maybe a working majority of about 10 or 11 once you account for Sinn Féin not taking their seats and the Speaker not voting except to break a tie). If by-elections don't go their way, they could be forced to rely on confidence and supply from the DUP again (or maybe they're coalition partners from the beginning to give them a bigger majority? UKIP and the DUP would disagree strongly over their exact vision of Brexit - but, that's less important in this scenario, because 'Brexit' is all strictly hypothetical in the wake of a Remain victory!) For Yeovil, the results in the 2015 election (i.e. the last one prior to this alternate one) were as follows: 42.5% Conservative, 33.1% Lib Dem, 13.4% UKIP, 7.1% Labour, 3.8% Green. It's estimated that 30% of 2015 Lib Dem voters voted Leave (which is easy to forget considering how much of a pro-EU turn the party took in the following years). So, if we take 30% of 33.1%... then, that gives us a crude estimate of about 9.93% of Yeovil's electorate being "Lib Dem 2015, Leave 2016" voters. Obviously, that could be several percentage points out either way; however, when you consider that an estimated 59.2% of Yeovil's voters voted Leave, and at least some of the Tory voters in this constituency will have voted Remain... it doesn't seem implausible. If anything, I suspect my 9.93% is more likely to be an underestimate of the "Lib Dem-Leave" vote than an overestimate of it. Now that I've done that back-of-the-envelope calculation, it's hard to see the Lib Dems winning the seat back in my alternate election. Some of that Lib Dem-Leave vote would have gone to UKIP, and the Tory-Remain vote would have largely stayed with the Tories (in OTL, some of it would have gone to the Lib Dems in 2017 and 2019 - but even with that, the Lib Dems dropped to 29.7% in 2017, and only recovered to 31.1% in 2019). If the Lib Dem vote falls below 30%, then they really don't have a chance IMO - since I expect either the Tory vote or the UKIP vote (or even both!) will be over 30% here. Maybe there's a very small window where they get a result like "Lib Dem 29.8%, UKIP 29.5%, Conservative 29.0%", with the other parties taking the rest - but, it really is a very small window. If I revise this map at any point, then I probably won't give the Lib Dems so many seats, and this is probably one of the ones I'll change .
Thanks for the reply. Interesting that nearly a third of LibDem voters in 2015 voted leave in the referendum. Given the number of other people such as me who have left the party it shows the gulf between the body of support and the leadership which has been so fanatically EU at all costs for a couple of decades or so. The fact that such a traditional Liberal seat was in Tory hands in 2015 shows how much damage the issue has done to the party's resources.
Steve
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Post by american2006 on Feb 19, 2021 2:36:38 GMT
A one-post TL series: 2016 Presidential Election: Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY), Fmr. First Lady, Senator, and SecState, vs. Donald J. Trump (R-NY), Businessman [The whole Wikileaks never happens]: www.yapms.com/app/?m=7hmf2020 Presidential Election: Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY), Incumbent President, vs. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Senator www.yapms.com/app/?m=7hmq2024 Presidential Election: Ted Cruz (R-TX), Incumbent President, vs. Tim Kaine (D-VA), Fmr. Vice President www.yapms.com/app/?m=7hmw2028 Presidential Election: Nikki Haley (R-SC), Fmr. Governor and Incumbent SecState, vs. TBD |
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kyng
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Post by kyng on Feb 20, 2021 20:26:35 GMT
A one-post TL series: 2016 Presidential Election: Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY), Fmr. First Lady, Senator, and SecState, vs. Donald J. Trump (R-NY), Businessman [The whole Wikileaks never happens]: www.yapms.com/app/?m=7hmf2020 Presidential Election: Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY), Incumbent President, vs. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Senator www.yapms.com/app/?m=7hmq2024 Presidential Election: Ted Cruz (R-TX), Incumbent President, vs. Tim Kaine (D-VA), Fmr. Vice President www.yapms.com/app/?m=7hmw2028 Presidential Election: Nikki Haley (R-SC), Fmr. Governor and Incumbent SecState, vs. TBD Interesting maps. It's a little odd to see Michigan voting to the left of Minnesota in 2024 - but then, that was the norm up to and including 2012, and in an alternate world, it might still be! Do we know who some of the main Democratic candidates in 2028 might be? |
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Post by american2006 on Feb 20, 2021 20:45:33 GMT
A one-post TL series: 2016 Presidential Election: Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY), Fmr. First Lady, Senator, and SecState, vs. Donald J. Trump (R-NY), Businessman [The whole Wikileaks never happens]: www.yapms.com/app/?m=7hmf2020 Presidential Election: Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY), Incumbent President, vs. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Senator www.yapms.com/app/?m=7hmq2024 Presidential Election: Ted Cruz (R-TX), Incumbent President, vs. Tim Kaine (D-VA), Fmr. Vice President www.yapms.com/app/?m=7hmw2028 Presidential Election: Nikki Haley (R-SC), Fmr. Governor and Incumbent SecState, vs. TBD Interesting maps. It's a little odd to see Michigan voting to the left of Minnesota in 2024 - but then, that was the norm up to and including 2012, and in an alternate world, it might still be! Do we know who some of the main Democratic candidates in 2028 might be? I'm thinking Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Senator Cory Booker, Senator Kamala Harris, Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg (maybe as a governor or senator or something). Maybe Susan Rice, would would be Clinton's Secretary of State |
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