gillan1220
Consul General
I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
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Post by gillan1220 on Nov 25, 2020 7:47:20 GMT
Back then in September 2015 following Russia's intervention in Syria, several questionable news aggregator sites from other countries began reporting that the PLA-N's Liaoning aircraft carrier was on its way to Syria to back the Russians and the Assad government. This would later be clarified by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs that no such deployments occurred and that China has no further plans of putting boots on the ground in Syria (Reuters). Knowing that both Beijing and Moscow have been the backer of Damascus since the start of the Civil War since they both block UN resolutions to condemn Assad, what would have been the ramifications in the Middle East as a whole had this push through? How would the U.S., NATO, and regional allies react to China finally sending troops to support the pro-government forces? For one I know this would have been the first major overseas Chinese operation since the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War. China has already sent warships to take part in anti-piracy operations in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea for one, which is based on a naval base in Djibouti. |
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Post by La Rouge Beret on Nov 25, 2020 11:04:00 GMT
There is a tremendous difference between deploying a solitary frigate and a carrier battle group. Firstly, the Chinese need to establish their fleet train and they will need another supply base.
Once that is established they need to pass workups, particularly for the air group. Considering how small their qualified Naval aviator pool is any loss is likely to be hurtful. Look at Kuznetsov's cruise and air operations to demonstrate the hazards of naval aviation.
In this case the Chinese Politburo made the right choice not to deploy.
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gillan1220
Consul General
I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
Posts: 12,144
Likes: 10,786
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Post by gillan1220 on Nov 26, 2020 2:54:52 GMT
There is a tremendous difference between deploying a solitary frigate and a carrier battle group. Firstly, the Chinese need to establish their fleet train and they will need another supply base. Once that is established they need to pass workups, particularly for the air group. Considering how small their qualified Naval aviator pool is any loss is likely to be hurtful. Look at Kuznetsov's cruise and air operations to demonstrate the hazards of naval aviation. In this case the Chinese Politburo made the right choice not to deploy. Well the PLA-N has Iran and Djibouti to resupply their warships. Of course in OTL, the power projection ability of China way beyond its maritime borders is questionable to say. Sure they have some limited blue water ops, being able to reach the Indian Ocean, Hawaii, off the coast of Alaska, and even at times to Europe or Cuba. Had they pushed through of deploying the Liaoning and couple of Type 54 frigates, how would the U.S. Fifth and Sixth Fleet react to this? |
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Post by La Rouge Beret on Nov 26, 2020 3:07:29 GMT
You detach a frigate to shadow them and then have your own Carrier group beyond the horizon. Launch AEW C aircraft to watch their sorties and build up a profile of their air to group capabilities, which given the time frame would probably be poor. To minimise losses the Chinese would conduct day time carrier operations, as conducting night time carrier operations is an advanced skill set. Maybe a SSN as well to watch them.
Also the Chinese still don't have a fixed wing AEW - C capability for their Naval Air capability, which limits their C & C to around 200 + nautical miles.
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gillan1220
Consul General
I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
Posts: 12,144
Likes: 10,786
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Post by gillan1220 on Nov 26, 2020 3:18:00 GMT
You detach a frigate to shadow them and then have your own Carrier group beyond the horizon. Launch AEW C aircraft to watch their sorties and build up a profile of their air to group capabilities, which given the time frame would probably be poor. To minimise losses the Chinese would conduct day time carrier operations, as conducting night time carrier operations is an advanced skill set. Maybe a SSN as well to watch them. Also the Chinese still don't have a fixed wing AEW - C capability for their Naval Air capability, which limits their C & C to around 200 + nautical miles. In that case, the USN in the region would be monitoring the Chinese. I could see some diplomatic back channels be used in a way that China has no intentions of attacking nearby U.S. allies or partners on the grounded. There would be a steady flow of communication between the USN and the PLA-N so there won't be any collisions in the crowded waters and airspace of Syria. One thing I should note is how crowded the airspace of Syria already is since the U.S. began their intervention in 2014, the Russians in 2015, and the Turks in 2016. One concern of military planners of both sides is mid-air collisions and accidental firings that may lead to casualties. |
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Post by La Rouge Beret on Nov 26, 2020 3:38:02 GMT
If you want to have fun and Defence analysts clutching at their pearls.
Have Liaoning and Kuznetsov conduct a multi deck Alpha strike against the rebels. Although that would require joint training between the two navies to make it happen, but it would be a fun couple of scenes to write.
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gillan1220
Consul General
I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
Posts: 12,144
Likes: 10,786
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Post by gillan1220 on Nov 26, 2020 3:48:16 GMT
If you want to have fun and Defence analysts clutching at their pearls. Have Liaoning and Kuznetsov conduct a multi deck Alpha strike against the rebels. Although that would require joint training between the two navies to make it happen, but it would be a fun couple of scenes to write. For the Liaoning and the Admiral Kutznetsov to conduct a multi-deck operation, it would not be until October 2016, exactly a year later. That was when the Russian aircraft carrier was deployed in OTL. Prior to that, it appears the Admiral K was having repairs and refits. Had this occurred, the Pentagon and NATO would be monitoring this clearly. Having a Sino-Russian carrier ops would not be alarming in the immediate per se, but it does prove the both U.S. rivals are starting to flex their muscles. Meanwhile all those right-wing nutjobs in the U.S. would say this is the breaking point of Obama's failing foreign policy. It would be seen akin to the Neo-Red Scare/Yellow Peril about a Sino-Russian alliance ready to shift the balance of world order in their favor. |
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