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Post by american2006 on Nov 18, 2020 15:16:04 GMT
What would happen, if Rome did t procrastinate and defeated the Visigoths and then the Calvary of the goths when they came?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 18, 2020 16:19:30 GMT
What would happen, if Rome did t procrastinate and defeated the Visigoths and then the Calvary of the goths when they came?
Probably would delay matters somewhat but the empire is likely to see major problems sooner or later. Possibly best bet is if Valens doesn't rush in and waits for the western reinforcements to arrive. However the empire was already facing serious problems already with declining support for an increasingly burdensome imperial system. Plus the prime reason why the Goths were rebelling was because they had been treated so abysmally by the empire and they were in the empire because they, among others had been driven from their homes by the Huns. As such there will be tribes wandering west and south and the Huns beyond them. An empire successful at Adrianople would be a bit stronger but not greatly so and possibly might not pay tribune to the Huns, at least until they get a serious defeat or two.
Valen surviving and the empire lasting a bit longer without an immediate military crisis might delay or even butterfly the rise to power of Theodosius the Great, who became the last strong emperor who held a united realm, albeit that his religious policies twice meant he faced rebellion in the west. Its possible that this might even mean the western empire lasts longer because its armed forces aren't crippled and the population facing an unpopular hard line Christian regime.
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Post by american2006 on Nov 18, 2020 17:18:42 GMT
What would happen, if Rome did t procrastinate and defeated the Visigoths and then the Calvary of the goths when they came?
Probably would delay matters somewhat but the empire is likely to see major problems sooner or later. Possibly best bet is if Valens doesn't rush in and waits for the western reinforcements to arrive. However the empire was already facing serious problems already with declining support for an increasingly burdensome imperial system. Plus the prime reason why the Goths were rebelling was because they had been treated so abysmally by the empire and they were in the empire because they, among others had been driven from their homes by the Huns. As such there will be tribes wandering west and south and the Huns beyond them. An empire successful at Adrianople would be a bit stronger but not greatly so and possibly might not pay tribune to the Huns, at least until they get a serious defeat or two.
Valen surviving and the empire lasting a bit longer without an immediate military crisis might delay or even butterfly the rise to power of Theodosius the Great, who became the last strong emperor who held a united realm, albeit that his religious policies twice meant he faced rebellion in the west. Its possible that this might even mean the western empire lasts longer because its armed forces aren't crippled and the population facing an unpopular hard line Christian regime.
What would happen do the Goths in this case? And when the Huns come knocking, what happens? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 18, 2020 22:28:19 GMT
Probably would delay matters somewhat but the empire is likely to see major problems sooner or later. Possibly best bet is if Valens doesn't rush in and waits for the western reinforcements to arrive. However the empire was already facing serious problems already with declining support for an increasingly burdensome imperial system. Plus the prime reason why the Goths were rebelling was because they had been treated so abysmally by the empire and they were in the empire because they, among others had been driven from their homes by the Huns. As such there will be tribes wandering west and south and the Huns beyond them. An empire successful at Adrianople would be a bit stronger but not greatly so and possibly might not pay tribune to the Huns, at least until they get a serious defeat or two.
Valen surviving and the empire lasting a bit longer without an immediate military crisis might delay or even butterfly the rise to power of Theodosius the Great, who became the last strong emperor who held a united realm, albeit that his religious policies twice meant he faced rebellion in the west. Its possible that this might even mean the western empire lasts longer because its armed forces aren't crippled and the population facing an unpopular hard line Christian regime.
What would happen do the Goths in this case? And when the Huns come knocking, what happens?
If the Goths, or those involved in the rebellion, were heavily defeated then the survivors probably end up as slaves. Not sure if the entire tribe would be affected but probably a fair bit of their strength. Of course this means a lot of unhappy Goths, whether as slaves or surviving groups not directly affected.
When the Huns arrive a lot would depend on the circumstances. With a good leader you could see the Romans will, at least for a while although so little is known about the Huns, especially at that time. Its possible an heavy defeat might result in them splintering and becoming fairly irrelevant as they seemed to do after Attila's death. Or they might regroup and come in again, or possibly head west.
If the Huns win big and probably defeat and largely destroy the eastern army say then it could cause a serious crisis at least for the east - assuming that the initial pressure is in the Balkans as OTL. Especially if weakness in the east prompts pressure from the Persians. Doubtful the Huns could take Constantinople or other heavily fortified coastal locations but you might see much of the Balkans ravaged and if they can cross into Anatolia you could also see destruction there. Ironically in this timeline its even possible that, assuming the west avoids the OTL losses in fighting against Theodosius and the Balkans are opened for settlement there's a possibility you might see the west survive while the east doesn't. Although the west is significantly weaker economically and demographically so that could be difficult.
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