gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 3, 2021 12:08:34 GMT
This scenario has been discussed in Bhinkov's Battlegrounds.
Will the missile shield protect the US from North Korean nuclear attack?
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simon darkshade
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 3, 2021 12:24:55 GMT
That Bhinkov chap can count and process base information, but his analysis does not extend much beyond that.
The entire scenario falls down with the conventional response to North Korean first use of nuclear weapons. Completely ridiculous and contrary to doctrine. Lewis knows his stuff, but is an arms control wonk, literally, so isn't an impartial source, but rather has his own agenda to push.
The ABMs in Alaska are designed expressly for this purpose and threat and would acquit themselves with a tad more success. Their major issue is their conventional warheads - nuclear armed ABMs have a much better pK.
It is really unfortunate that the vast majority of publish AH/speculative fiction is on this level.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 3, 2021 12:45:29 GMT
That Bhinkov chap can count and process base information, but his analysis does not extend much beyond that. The entire scenario falls down with the conventional response to North Korean first use of nuclear weapons. Completely ridiculous and contrary to doctrine. Lewis knows his stuff, but is an arms control wonk, literally, so isn't an impartial source, but rather has his own agenda to push. The ABMs in Alaska are designed expressly for this purpose and threat and would acquit themselves with a tad more success. Their major issue is their conventional warheads - nuclear armed ABMs have a much better pK. It is really unfortunate that the vast majority of publish AH/speculative fiction is on this level. In this scenario, the timely occurrence of South Korea conducting a pre-emptive strike to North Korea in retaliation of shooting down an airliner full of children and Trump's provocative tweets made Kim Jong-Un think that both the ROK and the USA have declared war on them. So in order to get the final spit on the USA, ROK, and even Japan for that matter, Kim orders the Hwasong-13s and other ICBMs to be fired to those cities on those countries. It somehow succeeds: South Korea loses Seoul and Busan, Japan loses Tokyo and Yokohama, and the U.S. loses Honolulu, HI; New York City, NY; Arlington, VA (original target was D.C.); and Jupiter, FL (original target was Mar-A-Lago). It does show how the AEGIS system will work on actual targets. Due to the fact AEGIS or other ABM systems have not seen combat against actual targets, it's expected to have errors so that's why North Korea becomes the first country to hit the CONUS since the War of 1812. |
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simon darkshade
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 3, 2021 13:23:33 GMT
The flow of events as outlined on the link had a pause between the initial North Korean nuclear strike and the subsequent one on the United States. It is a contrivance as the first US response would be to take them off the map. Lewis is an arms control academic who is a critic of nuclear weapons, a proponent of disarmament and who has a vested interest in portraying events and technology in a certain manner; additionally, the realistic course of events would not be as shocking and sell as many books.
AEGIS has seen combat service - it worked very well in downing the Iranian airliner.
I don't see the lack of ABM systems seeing use as a bad thing; a lot of development has gone on since 1990/91.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 3, 2021 13:31:54 GMT
The flow of events as outlined on the link had a pause between the initial North Korean nuclear strike and the subsequent one on the United States. It is a contrivance as the first US response would be to take them off the map. Lewis is an arms control academic who is a critic of nuclear weapons, a proponent of disarmament and who has a vested interest in portraying events and technology in a certain manner; additionally, the realistic course of events would not be as shocking and sell as many books. AEGIS has seen combat service - it worked very well in downing the Iranian airliner. I don't see the lack of ABM systems seeing use as a bad thing; a lot of development has gone on since 1990/91. It would count as a surprise attack then. Since South Korea fired first, the paranoid North Korean leadership thought it was gonna lose so it decided to do a last revenge weapon before falling. AEGIS does work but there are some failures where the SM-3 does not hit the target (Link: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Ballistic_Missile_Defense_System#Flight_tests_to_date)Ultimately, we hope we do not get to see if an ABM can really intercept an ICBM. |
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simon darkshade
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Post by simon darkshade on Jun 3, 2021 13:43:04 GMT
The plot summary linked in the first post discussed a conventional US response to the opening North Korean nuclear salvo. This was the contrivance.
40/49 isn't bad and the most recent test on that list is the notable one here.
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Post by kyuzoaoi on Jun 6, 2021 14:22:55 GMT
What happens to the DPRK then? That's the million dollar question.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 6, 2021 14:28:33 GMT
What happens to the DPRK then? That's the million dollar question. It's left as open ended as Kim Jong Un commits suicided as U.S. and ROK Special Forces are about to breach his bunker. My guess either the PLA occupied North Korea and make a Pro-Beijing regime in Pyongyang or alternatively, it's a UN occupation zone. |
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Post by otisrneedleman on Jun 20, 2021 16:14:58 GMT
Apparently no mention is made of the ICBM interceptors at Vandenberg AFB, CA. Am sure they'd be in action and have some success.
A NON-nuclear response to a nuclear attack on US/Allies? Most unlikely. P'yongyang for sure would get some instant sunshine.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 21, 2021 15:28:05 GMT
Apparently no mention is made of the ICBM interceptors at Vandenberg AFB, CA. Am sure they'd be in action and have some success. A NON-nuclear response to a nuclear attack on US/Allies? Most unlikely. P'yongyang for sure would get some instant sunshine. It was mentioned if you read the book. Except it only took a fraction of the North Korean ICBMs since ABM technology has not been tested in real combat. I'm guessing China and Russia pressured the US not to lob nukes at the DPRK because of the innocent, starving North Korean people and the fallout blowing into their respective countries. Although the American public would have cried for blood. |
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