Dark Earth: A New Jerusalem

Steve,

There is a hint of some of the Wilsonian ideas of the 1960s, albeit in a different context and from a different political angle. 

The overall aim of the Grand Design is to reform revenue so that pensions and welfare can be raised and funded into the future on a sustainable basis, which will provide for some return through economic activity.

In terms of defence, there are several objectives:
- Free up extra budget 'space' for investment in R&D, emergent technology, rising costs and equipment
- Grow the economy so that a steady and sustainable percentage rate will mean that an additional portion of that cost can be covered; a 1975 GDP of 200 billion would mean a minimum defence budget of 15 billion at 7.5%
- Reducing costs that Britain must bear on its own, such as air force training (through the revived British Commonwealth Air Training Plan); land, sea and air equipment development (the joint Anglo-American-Commonwealth ASW frigate being the first example) and joint funding of facilities
- Invest more now when times are economically favourable rather than extend the schedule into a more nebulous future

You are right on the money regarding the capacity of the 'continental superpowers'  - the USA, Soviet Union and China. The smallest of those has a population over 250% of that of Britain by itself, which gives a long term advantage insofar as one aspect of potential economic growth. Here, up until the late 1950s, Britain had the force multiplier of India and particularly the Indian Army.

However, Britain does have the 'inner Commonwealth' of Canada (+ Newfoundland and New Avalon), Australia (+ New Zealand) and South Africa (+ Rhodesia) which cooperates at a very close level economically, politically, militarily and strategically. Whilst the DE Commonwealth isn't anything like the stereotyped Imperial Federations seen in other cases, it is:
A.) A formal military and strategic alliance
B.) An economic union that is partway between a customs union and common market
C.) A political confederation coordinated by the Imperial Council and gradually integrated through the Imperial Parliament
D.) A combined scientific and technological group incorporating coordinated space and atomic energy research and development, among other key areas

As the remaining Crown Colonies gain independence, the structure will shift to something more equitable with Britain as primus inter pares. It will also have different levels and circles of membership so that some nations can choose the level of their interaction and integration; this is particularly aimed at India. (From a broad authorial perspective, I've left India's status somewhat nebulous and subject to change and evolution to reflect a bit of realism and also to provide for some twists and turns in worldbuilding and unfolding stories.)

One way that the issue of manpower, at least in a direct sense, is being approached is the development of the RAF as a broader Imperial force (similar to the Second World War model) and something similar with the Royal Navy. This entails opening recruitment to the Commonwealth as a whole as well as integrating the various national forces on an operational level. So far, this has taken the form of 'fleet units' and integrated tactical air forces in the Middle East and Far East.

Simon

Steve,

Yes, that is an indicator of original/Dark Earth people. Anthony Wedgewood-Benn, along with the majority of the Bevanites, broke off to the Socialist Party in the 1950s split; on the other wing of the @ Labour Party, Roy Jenkins and others are members of the Liberals, who occupy the centrist ground in British politics. His attitudes are somewhat different, fitting the country and environment he and others have emerged from.

It isn't so much a future possibility but a current reality. The Canadian situation does cause a lot of grumpiness from the Americans, but the larger Canadian population and economy means that they aren't quite dwarfed to the same extent as in @.

India remains the jewel in the crown, most definitely. The question and the challenge is how to engineer an association that is acceptable to India in particular; whilst there hasn't been quite the same depth of adversarial relationship, there is still a great deal of natural nationalism and simple raw power.

Regarding the other Dominions and major colonies:
- Malaya has fallen into a very pro-British position through necessity and the Indonesian situation
- Singapore is even closer for the same reasons and the added ethnic differences with Malaya
- Ceylon doesn't have another path to take at this time and benefits from the presence of the major RN base at Trincomalee
- Kenya goes along with South Africa and Rhodesia in the white African bloc and this doesn't look like changing any time soon
- The West Indies have the choice of keeping their own identity and preferential position within the Commonwealth, or becoming US puppet states like other parts of the independent Caribbean. At this stage, they go for the former.
- Prydain is very much in the 'inner Commonwealth' in political and ethnic terms, but is too small and far away to fully be treated on the same level as the Big Three Dominions
- The South Pacific colonies are a long way off quite a few developments

Regarding demography, I understood your meaning, but wanted to include reference to the military aspect as it was related. It is quite true that the largest impact doesn't come on the battlefield, but in the economy. In terms of potential coming from the confluence of demography and economy, the general ranking would be

1.) USA
2.) USSR
3.) China
4.) India
5.) Japan
6.) Germany

Simon

As an extra addendum to the list of Commonwealth states and colonies, one in particular isn’t mentioned.

Israel.

This is because, of all of the Dominions in 1964 (and in 1966 for that matter), Israel is the most actively independently minded. This comes from the confluence of at least four major factors: religious differences, economic issues related to some of the more socialist leaning aspects of Zionism, political issues coming from ties with the United States; and its geographic position.

Whilst there is no question of a complete break, they are a state that will look to exercise more of the “opt out” options than the “opt in” ones.

Certainly. Throw in the presence of the Mediterranean Fleet, the RAF Middle Eastern Air Force, a Sikh ‘division’ at Jerusalem and 4 British Army divisions at Suez and they’d be shooting themselves in the foot not utilise it.

A New Jerusalem Part 5

Whitehall
October 20th 1964

Stanley Barton paused in his private office. The first full Cabinet meeting of his new government would be an interesting one; whilst he had been in the shadow cabinet for a decade and knew and trusted his fellows, this would be a historic moment for the Labour Party in general. After over six and a half decades, this would be the first time that they had formed a government in their own right, albeit a minority one. He knew that for many, this would be the hour when they had long planned to bring about their plans and ambitions for a socialist future. Things had changed somewhat during his seven years as Leader of the Opposition, although he felt that he was still true to the soul of the party, which had never been something set in the stone of the late Victorian age, no matter how much the Marxians had tried to portray it as so.

However, this day would be significant for another reason as well: this would be the moment he unveiled the full details of his Grand Design to his colleagues. The basis of it had been percolating around in his head for almost four years, growing from the aftermath of the 1960 Crisis and the sea change in British strategic policy. The Tories had appraised the situation once the dust had settled and come to the same overall conclusion as him, but their subsequent reaction was substantially different to his own. Rather than progressively cut their cloth smaller to suit the limitations of the national purse, he wanted to increase the income to said purse and change the way it was spent. When faced with a mighty challenge, the only course of action was to rise to it with mighty endeavour and face the tides of fortune with hard mind and hard will, not embrace a gradual and comfortable decline to the ranks of the second-rate powers and also-rans.

He thought it a simple enough solution to a rather complex problem, but even the base issue could be broken down to a single concept: How was Britain going to solve the economic problem of the Cold War? The price of being a great power had never been small and the cost of the higher status of superpower was even more pronounced. The nuclear forces required to deter and, if need be, fight a hot war were extremely expensive; maintaining a conventional capacity for everything beyond that was also growing costlier by the year. In order to retain the former, that sine qua non of sitting at the top table, the Conservatives had begun to prune the latter, firstly in the 1961 Defence White Paper, then with subsequent measures, all the time insisting they would never countenance the very idea. In Barton’s view, it didn’t matter whether their actions were deliberate or simple misplaced economy, as the effect would be much the same: a diminution of British power that would flow onto the overall position of the country. For without real strength, there would be no British Empire, neither in its economic sense nor the political reality. Without that, they would be simply just another country in Europe, and not even the largest or richest at that. This strength wasn’t limited to the military sphere, but encompassed economic, industrial and political power; cut off one limb and the others would inevitably atrophy and wither. Give up the Middle East or Africa, let India fully drift away or fade away from South America and Asia and the rest would follow. For some, this would be an acceptable cost if they could build their own inward-looking socialist state here at home, but he viewed this too as shortsighted. A glorious utopia could be built for a little while, perhaps even decades, but then the cost of a cradle to grave welfare state would edge ever upward, just as the growth of the wealth of the nation slowed. The nation couldn’t pay itself more than it earned.

There had to be a way to provide for the people at home and maintain power around the world. He believed that he had found one. The path to both objectives came from the economic strength and wealth of Britain herself; the Commonwealth and Empire were increasingly vital contributors, but without the link of the metropole, the ties that bound them together were tenuous. If the British economy could launch itself forward into the future in a period of tremendous growth, in a new Industrial Revolution, then there would be an opportunity to remake its finances and secure the needs of peace and security at home and abroad. Specifically, this would entail using the growing windfall of oil and gas profits from the North Sea and the Middle East to create a national sovereign fund that would augment the pensions paid under National Insurance, but the greater part would come through targeted government investment and spending to drive up annual growth. This would have the effect of reducing and then eventually eliminating debt service payments and dramatically raising real spending on health and education, whilst allowing for a strong increase in the defence budget in this era of substantial capital expenditure. The great aim of Barton’s ‘Grand Design’ was to provide both guns and butter through growth; should it succeed, then the Britain of 1975 would have an economy of over £200,000 million, if not more, alongside a swelling national sovereign wealth fund to pay for the future and invest in the present.

With that type of growth, and some decent fortune from overseas assets and trade, they could afford to fund the necessary strategic nuclear deterrent and powerful conventional forces with almost twice the current level of spending. When the contributions and cooperation of the Commonwealth were factored in, then the new generation of weapons systems could be afforded in numbers large enough to make a difference, although not nearly sufficient to replace the wartime and 1950s arsenal that currently comprised the bulk of Imperial power. Sheer quantity, whilst it did retain a quality of its own, wasn't as significant as even five years ago and it did not matter if the French and Germans overtook the British Army in tanks or guns, provided that the latter continued to have the better vehicles; this was even truer when applied to their Soviet adversaries. They would have to make do with less in every category, but with the right type of development projects and acquisition programmes, they would not be left hanging and vulnerable for years at a time in the late 1970s as they may have under some postulated Conservative estimates; at least, that was how Barton and his men had characterised them. In any case, there was a looming problem of block obsolescence approaching, particularly for the Royal Navy, in the main part as a natural consequence of the large prewar and wartime fleet now reaching retirement - the Orion class battlecruisers, Battle class destroyers and Amphion class submarines would be gone in a handful of years, whilst the battleships and cruisers, as formidable as their array of missiles were at the moment, had at best a decade more of useful service. The solution to that, under the Grand Design, was to initiate and accelerate the various replacement programmes here and now, so that they could be gradually phased into service before they reached the brink; the key would be to balance the ships that the RN needed up against the resources that Britain and the Empire could bring to bear. Ideally, he wanted to provide a versatile core of highly capable equipment that could not only incorporate rapidly evolving technology but be used in a range of circumstances depending on what strategies his government or future governments may choose to implement, but reality meant that objective would likely be honoured in the breech rather than the observance. The RN wanted new nuclear attack submarines, battleships and carriers, along with steady construction of smaller ships, more offensive and defensive missiles and a new generation of aircraft; the RAF pushed for its supersonic bombers and ABMs, its tactical aircraft replacements and a panoply of impressive missiles; and the Army had its heart's desires fixed upon the MACVs, new artillery, SAGWs and helicopters and replacement of its truck park, not to mention its dreams of tanks and new infantry weapons. All of those could not be afford on £10,000 million nor even £20,000 million, but, like his old friend Professor Baldrick of Magdalen College, he had a cunning plan.

It was a simple one, but not without controversy. There were still many within the party who wished for an immediate increase in social spending and a direction of windfall profits towards health and welfare and among their ranks were some quite significant voices and factions. Barton’s response had been to attempt to defeat them in detail, playing off one group against another, mustering his support base in the unions and the Church and calling in the array of personal favours and agreements that he’d gathered over the last fifteen years. He was reasonably confident that he had the numbers to push through his Grand Design, despite the opposition from the left, but he needed to strike hard now, before they had an opportunity to prepare their action; stealing a march on those against him had been a winning tactic for many a year. The cachet he’d gained by the election victory and position as Labour’s first PM would count for little if he couldn’t rally his numbers sufficiently to get his main policy through. That meant today’s action. He knew that he had his firm backers in place in the Armed Forces' ministries, particularly Richard Pendragon at the War Office; although the bluff Barton and the dashing knight from the shires seemed as alike as chalk and cheese, they had forged a strong partnership, particularly on the defence of the realm. George Brown, the Minister of Defence, had been a close supporter since he had become leader, and Tony Crosland in the Foreign Office had been a vocal public advocate of the policy before and during the election, but he knew that the new Home Secretary Jim Callaghan leaned towards the arguments raised by those in the Outer Ministry and back benches. Beyond his more visible opponents, there was the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Denis Healey, who hadn't played his hand just yet, but beyond, his institutional support for economising and retrenchment, constituted a credible threat who could draw support from both the right and left of the party. If he overplayed his measures, on the one hand, he could lose two dozen of more of the residual Bevanites and with them government; on the other, he could lose some of the centrists to the Liberals and with them government. If he won, though, then sailing on the home front would be clear for at least his first term as Prime Minister.

It was time.

........................................................

Sir Richard Pendragon sat back in the Chesterfield armchair and took a long sip of his glass of scotch in satisfaction. It has been a good day for all of the men in the room - the Chief Whip, Joseph Wilberton; Adam Wainwright, the Minister of Works; Tom Stephens, the Minister of Social Security; the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, George Brown; and the Prime Minister himself. The first Cabinet meeting of the newly elected Labour government had been smooth and successful, with none of the potential upsets that they had feared. The basic precepts of the Prime Minister’s ‘grand design’ had been outlined and approved after they had bounced the various factions before they had a chance to prepare their strategy. The drive for growth and forging a new and better society in the crucible of the white heat of technology and modernity was now agreed policy. Acceptable concessions and red meat tossed out to the left to satisfy them in the form of an increase in NHS funding and a wage rise agreement with the TUC.

“We have belled the cat, lads, there is no doubt. The goal now is to move forward and get some decent runs on the board. Joe, have your boys keep their ears wide open on how this goes down with the backbenchers.”

“Yes, PM. I’ll make sure that any of the waverers get shown up quick enough.”

“Good. We don’t have the numbers to lose. Anything come up since the other day?”

“Just the odd bit of scuttlebutt about a few Private Member’s Bills in the offing on the usual social stuff. There’s one on the abolition of hanging that is gathering a bit of support.”

“Kick it into the long grass. That’s no benefit for us, not just after an election when we don’t even have a bally majority. We’ve got to have some sense of difference and distance between Labour and Liberal. Find out what else they want and sit on them.”

“They’re the usual bleeding heart squad, but we’ll manage ‘me.”

“That’s what I like to hear. George, I’d like you to go to work on Jim. He’s a good chap and true, and someone I’d prefer in here with us, if you know what I mean. Nice and steady, though, mind you.”

“Consider it done.”

“Tom, I’d like you to reach out to Denis. Let him know that he has full rein and my support for whatever he needs at the Treasury. Everything we discussed before the election is on the cards and he can let loose. Use those words, mind you, “let loose”.”

“Righto, Prime Minister.”

“Very good, gentlemen. I’d just like to see Richard and Tom alone for half a tick, then I’ve got to get off to my next meeting.”

The other men left the room in short order, leaving Barton with Pendragon and Wainwright.

“Right, lads, I’ll make this quick. I’ve recently had a number of ideas that I want to put into action. I’d like you two to put your heads together, nominally for the purpose of finding old War Office facilities suitable for sale. What I’d actually like you to do is quite different.”

Stanley Barton explained the ideas to his colleagues; he couldn’t really call them his ideas, considering where and when they came from. When he was done, he could see both men understood his intent.