Post by eurofed on Sept 30, 2020 21:59:16 GMT
An interesting idea that I thought of as a variant of one of my preferred 19th century scenarios: what if a Spain in decent condtions had joined the post-Habsburg (and much more stable) version of the Triple Alliance, in a TL where A-H collapsed and was replaced by Germany, Italy, Hungary-Croatia, and Russia? IOTL this strategic realignment came close to fulfilment when a Hohenzollern was a candidate for the throne of Spain and a Savoia briefly held it for a while. What if this path gotten entrenched and blossomed into a stable strategic realignment? For France and by extension the Triple Entente, it would be the strategic nightmare of Charles V's empire reborn, except as a coalition of modern states they had little hope of destabilizing.
This is how it happens. ITTL the USA got Canada, the Greater Antilles, and Northern Mexico sometime between the ARW and the Reconstruction, so Spain already lost Cuba and PR, kept the Philippines, and the Spanish-American War as we know it won't be an issue. The Habsburg Empire collapsed and was partitioned by Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Russia, either b/c of successful 1848-49 revolutions, or a different 1866-71 event sequence. The latter might occur b/c of a complete Prussian-Italian victory driving the Hungarians to rebel, or Austria siding with France and being backstabbed by Italy and Russia, the outcome does not change. Germany, Italy, and the confederation of Hungary and Croatia become liberal-democratic federal unions, either b/c of successful 1848-49 revolutions and/or liberal-minded members of the Hohenzollern and the Savoia take the throne and foster liberal reforms. Hungary-Croatia follows their example. The three powers form a stable bloc with an economic union and military alliance, the Central Powers, Triple Alliance, or Mitteleuropa. Because of these events, Italy enacts the right reforms, grabs all the irredenta, and grows into a true great power, the rough equivalent of France in economic and military terms. Germany is the usual industrial and military giant, only better thanks to the inclusion of German Austria and Bohemia-Moravia. Hungary-Croatia is far from perfect, but less instable than the Habsburg Empire.
After it experiences its own liberal revolution, Spain ousts the Bourbon and offers the throne to an Hohenzollern or a Savoia (b/c of the German-Italian alliance, either option is equivalent). France obviously becomes apeshit and stumbles in a war with Prussia/Germany and Italy, joined by Spain. It gets a new one ripped and loses Alsace-Lorraine to Germany, Nice, Savoy, and Corsica to Italy, the Northern Basque Country and Roussillon to Spain. Spain gradually stabilizes and experiences moderate industrialization as a liberal federal union on the model of its allies. It revitalizes into a junior great power like OTL Italy. Reforms and economic development help it suppress political instability, and it becomes a stable component of the CP bloc. The example of other successful national unifications (including Scandinavia ITTL), and the success and reforms of Spain revitalize the popularity of Iberism. When the seizure of Portuguese colonies by Britain and Germany as collateral cause a republican coup and civil war in Portugal, the Spanish intervene and restore the Iberian Union. The trauma of defeat turns France into a proto-fascist regime, the Triple Entente forms more or less the usual way, they gain Turkey as a new members, but they can do only so much to change the strategic equation.
What seems especially interesting in this scenario is the balance of power between the alliance blocs is so tilted that you may have a real chance WWI does not happen, b/c France and by extension the Entente realize they cannot win, or even if the war occurs, in all likelihood it ends much earlier and with much less bloodshed and destruction than OTL. In the case the Entente leaders prove foolhardy enough to accept a fight, the French have no hope of winning a three-front war even with maximum British help, and almost surely collapse in a year or two at the most. Quite possibly, Belgium sees the writing on the wall and grants free passage to the Germans, accelerating the timetable of France's downfall to a few months at most. Russia collapses within a year at most after getting hit with the full weight of CP military power. The CP gets superiority in the Med from the beginning, thanks to the combo of Italian, Spanish, and Hungarian navies, and the German Med squadron. The MN is the underdog, since the RN has to contain the HSF and can only spare so much for the other theaters. The Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Ottoman navy may help, but only so much. Serbia-Bulgaria falls to a multi-front CP offensive. Turkey is doomed once the CP refocus their might in the Balkan theater. Naval power shields Britain enough to spare it from surrender, but it has to make peace once all its allies fall, America starts making increasingly unhappy rumors about unrestricted trade with CP Europe, and the CP seize the French navy.
It seems the Entente has a decent fighting chance only in three rather unlikely cases: a) the USA joins the Entente from the beginning. It is surely not going to happen, and in all likelihood, US intervention is not going to happen at all ITTL, for various reasons b) the British Empire mobilizes, trains, and deploys millions of Indians to throw in the furnace of the French fronts. Potentially doable, if logistically quite complex (the Med is not safe for the Entente, anything has to make the long trip round Africa) and very risky for Britain. It might easily unleash the Second Indian Revolt during or soon after the war at the hands of millions of disgruntled veterans familiar with modern warfare c) Russia manages to industrialize to 1930s-1940s levels. Doable, but it requires a sufficiently early and radical divergence. Quite possibly, none of these unlikely contingencies occurs, the elites in London, Paris, and St. Petersburg read the writing on the wall, and there is peace.
Other relevant factors ITTL:
Scandinavia unified on the model of Germany and Italy and as a consequence of the Schleswig conflict. In all likelihood it stays a pro-CP neutral, but it might intervene late in the conflict to seize Finland and Latvia-Estonia. Poland is independent and another member of the CP coalition (with the 1848-49 PoD) or under Russian rule (with the 1866-71 PoD). In any case, it is united since Russia grabbed Galicia from the Habsburg booty and Prussia/Germany ceded Posen. Romania is in a confederation with Hungary-Croatia (with the 1848-49 PoD) or under Russian rule (with the 1866-71 PoD). Serbia-Bulgaria formed as a result of Russia winning the peace in the Russo-Turkish War thanks to A-H's absence, and is part of the Entente. Greece got modern borders for the same reason and is part of the CP. Japan modernized much like OTL, if in a modern liberal way, and got Korea, Sakhalin, Taiwan, and Hainan. Greater Manchuria either went to Russia (if the Russo-Japanese War was averted) or to Japan (if it happened). In any case, it is being absorbed by the annexing power, with little or no Chinese presence. The Anglo-Japanese Alliance occurred with the CP instead, and Japan aligns with the CP to grab the Russian Far East and French Indochina if the war occurs. Russia got Xinjiang and Greater Mongolia, and Britain got Tibet. China in in the throes of post-revolutionary chaos, and powerless.
This is how it happens. ITTL the USA got Canada, the Greater Antilles, and Northern Mexico sometime between the ARW and the Reconstruction, so Spain already lost Cuba and PR, kept the Philippines, and the Spanish-American War as we know it won't be an issue. The Habsburg Empire collapsed and was partitioned by Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Russia, either b/c of successful 1848-49 revolutions, or a different 1866-71 event sequence. The latter might occur b/c of a complete Prussian-Italian victory driving the Hungarians to rebel, or Austria siding with France and being backstabbed by Italy and Russia, the outcome does not change. Germany, Italy, and the confederation of Hungary and Croatia become liberal-democratic federal unions, either b/c of successful 1848-49 revolutions and/or liberal-minded members of the Hohenzollern and the Savoia take the throne and foster liberal reforms. Hungary-Croatia follows their example. The three powers form a stable bloc with an economic union and military alliance, the Central Powers, Triple Alliance, or Mitteleuropa. Because of these events, Italy enacts the right reforms, grabs all the irredenta, and grows into a true great power, the rough equivalent of France in economic and military terms. Germany is the usual industrial and military giant, only better thanks to the inclusion of German Austria and Bohemia-Moravia. Hungary-Croatia is far from perfect, but less instable than the Habsburg Empire.
After it experiences its own liberal revolution, Spain ousts the Bourbon and offers the throne to an Hohenzollern or a Savoia (b/c of the German-Italian alliance, either option is equivalent). France obviously becomes apeshit and stumbles in a war with Prussia/Germany and Italy, joined by Spain. It gets a new one ripped and loses Alsace-Lorraine to Germany, Nice, Savoy, and Corsica to Italy, the Northern Basque Country and Roussillon to Spain. Spain gradually stabilizes and experiences moderate industrialization as a liberal federal union on the model of its allies. It revitalizes into a junior great power like OTL Italy. Reforms and economic development help it suppress political instability, and it becomes a stable component of the CP bloc. The example of other successful national unifications (including Scandinavia ITTL), and the success and reforms of Spain revitalize the popularity of Iberism. When the seizure of Portuguese colonies by Britain and Germany as collateral cause a republican coup and civil war in Portugal, the Spanish intervene and restore the Iberian Union. The trauma of defeat turns France into a proto-fascist regime, the Triple Entente forms more or less the usual way, they gain Turkey as a new members, but they can do only so much to change the strategic equation.
What seems especially interesting in this scenario is the balance of power between the alliance blocs is so tilted that you may have a real chance WWI does not happen, b/c France and by extension the Entente realize they cannot win, or even if the war occurs, in all likelihood it ends much earlier and with much less bloodshed and destruction than OTL. In the case the Entente leaders prove foolhardy enough to accept a fight, the French have no hope of winning a three-front war even with maximum British help, and almost surely collapse in a year or two at the most. Quite possibly, Belgium sees the writing on the wall and grants free passage to the Germans, accelerating the timetable of France's downfall to a few months at most. Russia collapses within a year at most after getting hit with the full weight of CP military power. The CP gets superiority in the Med from the beginning, thanks to the combo of Italian, Spanish, and Hungarian navies, and the German Med squadron. The MN is the underdog, since the RN has to contain the HSF and can only spare so much for the other theaters. The Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Ottoman navy may help, but only so much. Serbia-Bulgaria falls to a multi-front CP offensive. Turkey is doomed once the CP refocus their might in the Balkan theater. Naval power shields Britain enough to spare it from surrender, but it has to make peace once all its allies fall, America starts making increasingly unhappy rumors about unrestricted trade with CP Europe, and the CP seize the French navy.
It seems the Entente has a decent fighting chance only in three rather unlikely cases: a) the USA joins the Entente from the beginning. It is surely not going to happen, and in all likelihood, US intervention is not going to happen at all ITTL, for various reasons b) the British Empire mobilizes, trains, and deploys millions of Indians to throw in the furnace of the French fronts. Potentially doable, if logistically quite complex (the Med is not safe for the Entente, anything has to make the long trip round Africa) and very risky for Britain. It might easily unleash the Second Indian Revolt during or soon after the war at the hands of millions of disgruntled veterans familiar with modern warfare c) Russia manages to industrialize to 1930s-1940s levels. Doable, but it requires a sufficiently early and radical divergence. Quite possibly, none of these unlikely contingencies occurs, the elites in London, Paris, and St. Petersburg read the writing on the wall, and there is peace.
Other relevant factors ITTL:
Scandinavia unified on the model of Germany and Italy and as a consequence of the Schleswig conflict. In all likelihood it stays a pro-CP neutral, but it might intervene late in the conflict to seize Finland and Latvia-Estonia. Poland is independent and another member of the CP coalition (with the 1848-49 PoD) or under Russian rule (with the 1866-71 PoD). In any case, it is united since Russia grabbed Galicia from the Habsburg booty and Prussia/Germany ceded Posen. Romania is in a confederation with Hungary-Croatia (with the 1848-49 PoD) or under Russian rule (with the 1866-71 PoD). Serbia-Bulgaria formed as a result of Russia winning the peace in the Russo-Turkish War thanks to A-H's absence, and is part of the Entente. Greece got modern borders for the same reason and is part of the CP. Japan modernized much like OTL, if in a modern liberal way, and got Korea, Sakhalin, Taiwan, and Hainan. Greater Manchuria either went to Russia (if the Russo-Japanese War was averted) or to Japan (if it happened). In any case, it is being absorbed by the annexing power, with little or no Chinese presence. The Anglo-Japanese Alliance occurred with the CP instead, and Japan aligns with the CP to grab the Russian Far East and French Indochina if the war occurs. Russia got Xinjiang and Greater Mongolia, and Britain got Tibet. China in in the throes of post-revolutionary chaos, and powerless.