Dark Earth General Discussion

On Electricity and Power Generation:

A recent discussion over on AH.com got me crunching sums on power generation and what may need to be a rethink of some Dark Earth material.

From The Imperial Almanac of Great Britain:

"In 1959, 48% of the UK's electricity was produced by coal, 21% by oil and gas, 16% by nuclear power and 14% by hydroelectricity and 1% by windpower. Over 256 TW of electricity were produced in 1958...Hydroelectricity provides significant power in Scotland, Wales and Lyonesse, with the Severn Barrage in South West England producing 6850 MW of power. The Welsh Mountains scheme provides electricity for most of Wales and the Midlands through its underground power stations and subterranean rivers and lakes."

"The first civilian nuclear power station was opened in Britain in 1950, with twelve reactors built over the next decade and a further fifteen under construction or projected as of 1960."

Issue 1: I've envisaged that the Welsh Mountains Scheme would total around 3000 MWe and Scotland would add a further 2000 MWe of hydroelectrical power. On top of the Severn (I know it is tidal power in a certain fashion, but am grouping it broadly), that gives a total of 103,806,000 MW annually, or 103.86 TWh. That is 40%, not 14%

Issue 2: 12 power stations (not reactors as it written there, but I recall my intent) translates as Windscale/Calder Hall, Chapelcross, Berkeley, Bradwell, Hartlepool, Hunterston, Hinkley Point, Trawsfynyd, Dungeness, Sizewell, Oldbury and Wylfa. The first group of six will be 4 x 250 MW and the second six were 4 x 500 MW. Annual output of that is 157,680,000 MW, or 157.68 TW, or 61% vs 16%

Issue 3: The 15 under construction or projected would be Heysham, Torness, Dounreay, Malin (Northern Ireland), Arklow (Southern Ireland), Kilmelford (Scotland), Ullapool (Scotland), Moidart (Scotland), Inverbervie (Scotland), Amble (Northumberland), Hinderwell (North Yorkshire), Skipsea (West Yorkshire), Theddlethorpe (Lincolnshire), Weybourne (Norfolk) and Isle of Grain (Kent).

Possible Solution: I'm going to need increase/retcon the total amount of electricity produced to keep some semblance of the overall ratios for 1960. The impact of what happens when the next 15 atomic power plants are complete, given that they will each generate ~2000-2500 MW will need some thought.


"Electricity Production: Nuclear 30%, Coal 29%, Oil and Gas 25%, Hydroelectricity 14%, Solar 1%, Other 1%" (from 1969/70 Assorted British Statistical Data)

Those numbers seem to be right out of kilter with the impact of additional nuclear power plants.

"The question of oil and its politics had been a consistent driver for British policy since before the Great War, but Stanley Barton had become Prime Minister on the eve of what could be most significant change. 42% of her national power requirements were provided by coal plants and a further 27% by oil, but this was shifting in favour of nuclear. It accounted for just 10% now, but this was projected as doubling in the next five years alone. The prospects of the next energy revolution through fusion was further off into the future, but the day was coming when oil and coal would no longer be significant sources of electrical power generation in the British Isles. This would bring with it some measure of relief with regard to the oil picture, but the matter of coal would be a more complex one - the overwhelming majority of Britain’s 1.2 million coal miners were Labour voters and his people, after all." (A New Jerusalem Part 15)

This will just need a light edit to fiddle with the numbers, with the 10% seeming like a typo.

Overall, the 27 "Generation 1 and 2" nuclear power stations completed, under construction or projected as of 1964 will be joined by approval for a further 9 Gen 2 plants by 1964 and 4 more between 1964 and 1967. All will be completed by 1972.

In 1955, there was this event: "The Ministry of Power, the Royal Atomic Energy Commission and British Energy publish a study outlining the development of the British electrical power industry over the next 20 years, including a plan for the construction of 52 nuclear power stations across Britain and Ireland."

The last 12 plants won't be fission powered, but will shift to fusion power. This will take longer than 1975, but the consequences will be profound.

Darkmoor, the first British fusion plant, has four 2500 MW reactors operating as of 1973. A single fusion power station will produce 87.6 TW of electricity annually, or more than the entire @ UK in 1958.

Long story short, I'm going to have to go back and fiddle with some numbers. Oil and gas power will be way down, coal on the way out sooner for power generation and hydro will produce a tad more.

British Armament Program 1973

Tanks: 3793
(140 Royalists, 375 Valiants, 100 Super Conquerors, 2678 Crusaders, 500 Chieftains)

IFVs: 4074
(3124 FV-525 Warrior, 950 FV-432 Saxon)

APCs: 5321
(1652 Centaur IMV, 1574 Saladin AMC, 1067 Sentinel LAV, 1028 MAV)

Artillery: 2978
(96 3.75" Vickers Whirlwind SPAAGs, 160 42mm Marksman SPAAGs, 360 25mm Sharpshooter SPAAGs
375 25pdr GP Guns
125 36pdr SVAT Guns
750 L24 125mm Light Guns (300 Britain, 250 Commonwealth, 100 Yugoslavia, 100 Greece)
400 L121 6" Gun-Howitzers (150 Britain, 100 Greece, 50 Arabs, 50 Persia, 50 Argentina)
250 FV236 Archbishops, 120 FV254 Lionhearts, 50 FV287 Excalibur, 12 375mm
180 Catapult MRLS)

Missiles: 292
(24 Black Arrow MRBM, 36 Blue Streak ICBM; 40 White Knight, 36 Gold Crown, 36 Black Prince, 120 Blue Water)

SAMs: 2400
(1280 Broadsword, 240 Blue Envoy (export), 240 Blue Envoy; 320 PT.428 Rapier SAMs, 320 EG.324 Sabre SAMs)

MANPADs: 1800
1800 Vickers Skyflash

ATGMs: 6000
1200 Hawker-Siddeley Javelins, 1200 Fairey Swingfires, 3600 Shorts Green Apples

Vehicles: 45,000
(7500 Bedford MK 5t lorry, 2500 Leyland Ranger 5t 6x6 lorry, 2500 Alvis Stalwart 10t 8x8 lorry, 20,000 Land Rovers, 2500 Humber Pigs, 10000 Austin Champions)

Mortars: 2390
(1000 L13 2.5", 800 L16 3.5", 250 L18 3.75" Automatic, 200 L12 4.5", 100 L35 6.5", 40 L52 10")

Small Arms
(206,774 L1A2 battle rifles, 153,982 L2A4 assault rifles, 64,562 L10 pistols, 90,287 L10A1 submachine guns, 25,629 L4 LMGs, 12,584 L6 GPMGs, 6254 L12 HMGs, 2000 Maxim Guns)

Military Aircraft: 3672

Vickers (795)
120 Vickers Thunderbolts (Chile 40, Greece 60, Yugoslavia 20)
128 Supermarine Eagle TSR-2s (64 RAF, 32 India, 32 USA)
374 Supermarine Spitfires
80 Westland Tigers
60 Westland Sea Kings
32 Westland Westminsters

de Havilland (702)
320 de Havilland Tornadoes (120 Britain, 80 Argentina, 60 Commonwealth, 60 Benelux)
200 de Havilland Vanguard II (200 RN)
20 de Havilland DH.125 Jet Dragons
24 Handley-Page Vengeances
18 Shorts Valentine (Bolivia)
20 Shorts Belfast Mark III
50 Percival Lynx

Armstrong-Whitworth (688)
10 Armstrong-Whitworth Warspite
20 Armstrong-Whitworth AW.249 AEW
180 Armstrong-Whitworth Warrior
64 Gloster Lions (64 RAuxAF)
60 Gloster P.462 Reaper (60 Persia)
204 Fairey Fireflies
96 Fairey Rotodynes
54 Fairey Swordfish ASW

Hawker-Siddeley (772)
136 H-S Harriers/Sea Harriers (32 Germany, 24 Italy, 80 RAF)
480 Hawker-Siddeley Hurricanes
24 Hawker Siddeley HS.681 Skyblazers
96 Blackburn Buccaneers (60 India, 36 Argentina, 24 Greece)
24 Avro Vulcans
12 Avro Vindicators

BAC/Bristol (716)
24 Bristol Buckinghams
48 Bristol Bulldogs
32 Bristol Strikemaster (40 RIAF,)
156 Bristol Rovers
128 English Electric Lightnings (48 India, 80 RAF)
256 English Electric Scimitars
72 Folland-Miles Wasps

British Armament Program 1972

Tanks: 3044
(125 Royalists, 254 Valiants, 96 Super Conquerors, 2569 Crusaders)

IFVs: 3500
(2750 FV-525 Warrior, 750 FV-432 Saxon)

APCs: 4522
(1548 Centaur IMV, 1174 Saladin AMC, 883 Sentinel LAV, 917 MAV)

Artillery: 2460
(82 3.75" Vickers Whirlwind SPAAGs, 138 42mm Marksman SPAAGs, 320 25mm Sharpshooter SPAAGs
290 25pdr GP Guns
100 36pdr SVAT Guns
640 L24 125mm Light Guns (300 Britain, 240 Commonwealth, 100 Scandinavia)
320 L121 6" Gun-Howitzers (160 Britain, 60 Arabs, 60 Persia, 40 Scandinavia)
240 FV236 Archbishops, 120 FV254 Lionhearts, 50 FV287 Excalibur, 12 375mm
140 Catapult MRLS)

Missiles: 268
(24 Black Arrow MRBM, 24 Blue Streak ICBM; 32 White Knight, 32 Gold Crown, 36 Black Prince, 120 Blue Water)

SAMs: 1680
(560 Broadsword, 160 Blue Envoy (240 export), 160 Bloodhound (export); 400 PT.428 Rapier SAMs, 400 EG.324 Sabre SAMs)

MANPADs: 1600
1600 Vickers Skyflash

ATGMs: 6000
1600 Hawker-Siddeley Javelins, 1200 Fairey Swingfires, 3200 Shorts Green Apples

Vehicles: 32,650
(5000 Bedford MK 5t lorry, 2500 Leyland Ranger 5t 6x6 lorry, 3000 Alvis Stalwart 10t 8x8 lorry, 150 Scammell Commander, 12,000 Land Rovers, 2000 Humber Pigs, 8000 Austin Champions)

Mortars: 2245
(957 L13 2.5", 720 L16 3.5", 240 L18 3.75" Automatic, 200 L12 4.5", 96 L35 6.5", 32 L52 10")

Small Arms
(184,532 L1A2 battle rifles, 124,749 L2A4 assault rifles, 60,187 L10 pistols, 109,263 L10A1 submachine guns, 24,555 L4 LMGs, 12,467 L6 GPMGs, 6219 L12 HMGs, 1987 Maxim Guns)

Military Aircraft: 3429

Vickers (685)
140 Vickers Thunderbolts (RAF 80, Spain 20, Greece 40)
64 Supermarine Eagle TSR-2s (32 India, 32 USA)
428 Supermarine Spitfires
64 Westland Tigers
50 Westland Sea Kings
24 Westland Westminsters

de Havilland (603)
400 de Havilland Tornadoes (240 Britain, 80 Commonwealth, 40 Benelux, 40 Germany)
50 de Havilland Vanguards (Australia)
26 de Havilland DH.125 Jet Dragons
18 Handley-Page Vengeances
24 Shorts Valentine (Chile)
25 Shorts Belfast Mark III
60 Percival Lynx

Armstrong-Whitworth (671)
18 Armstrong-Whitworth Warspite
36 Armstrong-Whitworth AW.249 AEW
48 Gloster Lions (48 RCAF)
120 Gloster P.462 Reaper (72 Mexico, 48 Persia)
219 Fairey Fireflies
102 Fairey Rotodynes
64 Fairey Swordfish ASW
64 Hawker-Siddeley Hurricanes

Hawker-Siddeley (780)
176 H-S Harriers/Sea Harriers (48 Germany, 96 Italy, 32 Sweden)
400 Hawker-Siddeley Hurricanes
24 Hawker Siddeley HS.681 Skyblazers
120 Blackburn Buccaneers (80 RN, 20 India, 20 Germany)
24 Avro Vulcans
24 Avro 780 Andover
12 Avro Vindicators

BAC/Bristol (690)
32 Bristol Buckinghams
72 Bristol Bulldogs
170 Bristol Strikemaster (40 RAF, 85 RIAF, 45 Sth Vietnam)
80 English Electric Lightnings (40 RAF, 40 India)
192 English Electric Scimitars
80 Folland-Miles Wasps
64 Hawker-Siddeley Hurricanes

Looking ahead from 1973, the overall situation in a number of continents is on a different trajectory, as it were:

Asia:
- SE Asia is simmering down in the aftermath of the Vietnam War, without the scope for the dreadful coda which was the @ situation in Cambodia or the waves of Vietnamese 'boat people' refugees. Indeed, in the absence of a fall of South Vietnam, there will be a markedly smaller Vietnamese diaspora, and not nearly so widely spread
- China isn't positioned to come in from the cold, but hasn't really been in it in the same fashion; rather, they have been sitting rather separately like the third circle of a Venn diagram since the end of the Korean War put paid to their (rather disastrous) dalliance with the Soviets. Thus, there is unlikely to be the same type of Chinese economic rise starting in the l980s, as there hasn't been the same Maoist nadir to rise up from
- Japan is the country most on a familiar trajectory, but it is angled even higher than @ in economic terms and is under very different leadership in the form of PM Yukio Mishima. A rearming Japan will alter the balance of power in the North Pacific and NE Asia in some unexpected fashions
- Korea and Taiwan are ahead of their @ positions at this point, both in terms of economic growth and general democratic normalisation. They also each have rather secret programmes for developing some certain, ahem, capacities
- Indonesia is on a different (and not particularly 100% successful) path as part of the Soviet bloc, but Sukarno's grip is starting to get a bit shaky, and his health (although enhanced by being in power vs under house arrest) isn't in the best shape
- India is a vast country and noticeably different in its 'trajectory', alignment and capacity. After a few years of relative political introspection, there are drivers for some change. Aside from a not insignificant faction amongst the nationalists and socialists, there isn't quite the same coalition preferring non-alignment/Soviet alignment over being a player at the top table of the Western bloc

Africa
- The continent with the most differences
- Independent states: South Africa, Rhodesia, Egypt, Liberia, Ethiopia, Madagascar Somalia, Orungu (Swedish Congo), Kenya, Tanganyika, Uganda, Upper Volta, Senegal, Mali, Niger, Dahomey, Congo, Guinea, Cameroon, Ashante Federation (Gold Coast and Ivory Coast), Togoland, Nigeria, Sudan, Equatoria, Azania (Southern Tanganyika/Nthn Mozambique), Ubangi-Shari, Libya, Chad, Morocco, Tunisia, Senegambia, Rwanda-Burundi, Darfur
- Colonies/protectorates: Portuguese West Africa, Portuguese East Africa, Spanish Sahara, Mauritania
- The 'independent' states include a lot of former British and French colonies whose independence effectively comes with an asterisk. As said earlier, rather than a quick severance of ties, like a divorce, their pathways has been a multi-stage process, like a child growing from a wee bairn to a young adult forging out into the world; the paternalist overtones of the imagery are deliberate, as they encapsulate where the thinking of the DE British and French governments leans at this time. Domestic self government came by the mid 1960s, followed by quasi-independence, in the form of Dominion status, which many states achieved between 1965 and 1970 on a more accelerate timeframe 'suggested' by HM QE2 in late 1964. The third stage, of removal of some of the 'ties that bind' and transference of control of armed forces and external relations, is now coming for some states; others, such as Uganda after the recent intervention, are further back. The final stage of 'independence within the Commonwealth' reached directly in @ won't be on the cards until the 1980s under current thinking in London and Paris, with the residual control and influence (Francafrique with teeth) remaining following this
- There simply hasn't been the cases of a rapid shift from a nominal parliamentary democracy to a presidential republic and thence to a dictatorship, as in quite a few African states during the 1960s in @, nor of a relative rush to jump into bed with the Soviets in the form of arms and advisors. That type of embrace of the Reds is one of the 'red lines' that would result in London or Paris moving to pull the nascent African state back into what they view as a more acceptable position
- In contrast to @, both London and Paris have the combination of wealth, will and force to work such measures, so long as the other side is of a manageable size. This has been assisted by the greater focus upon Vietnam from 1965 to 1970 for the USA and the USSR, as well as the latter not even having the same 'entrepots' to the Middle East and Africa that it had in the @ 1960s and the dubious example of the ongoing chaos in the Congo; this has arguably not been the best outcome for many Africans
- Like a teenager growing up and bucking the rules and restrictions set at home, this state of affairs can't last forever, however much the paternalistic entities might wish it to do so. This has been signposted on a couple of occasions
- Africa thus hasn't quite developed the same growing Third World voice in the LoN
- - Another factor not present in @ is a reaction to this state of the affairs in the form of the African Liberation Front, a continental grouping of associated independence and resistance groups. Watch this space
- Due to an earlier cure (assisted by Tarzan and detailed in a 1950s or early 1960s event), HIV/AIDS will be an extremely minor epidemiological historical footnote in an obscure future textbook under another name
- The tsetse fly is on its way out
- Africa really has the potential to be the next major 'Cold War' theatre, with the inherent limitations of the Soviets not being next door (North Korea) or able to directly ship support (North Vietnam)

South America
- There really is enough material here for an article in and of itself
- Unlike @, there are both South American and external alliance blocs that give the potential for any conflict to erupt into something much bigger...

For me, having Dark Earth on this forum is a dream come true, there is so much stuff in it sometimes get overwhelming for me what i need to ask ore respond to, but i will try my best to respond more to sdarkshade work.

So no worry that you do ever do a reboot then.