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Post by EwellHolmes on Aug 10, 2020 7:48:55 GMT
From Stones River - Bloody Winter in Tennessee, by James Lee McDonough: So let's say the Army of Tennessee pulls it off, cutting the Nashville Pike and forcing the surrender of the Army of the Cumberland with its 43,000 troops. Lincoln, in private correspondence with Rosecrans after the battle, speculated that defeat here-concurrent to that in Fredericksburg-might have broke Northern morale and possibly triggered foreign intervention.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Aug 10, 2020 7:53:35 GMT
For those wondering, here's what Lincoln's letter to Rosecrans in the months after the battle said: To William S. Rosecrans Executive Mansion, Washington, My dear General Rosecrans August 31. 1863. Yours of the 22nd. was received yesterday. When I wrote you before, I did [not] [2] intend, nor do I now, to engage in an argument with you on military questions. You had informed me you were impressed, through Gen. Halleck, that I was dissatisfied with you; and I could not bluntly deny that I was, without unjustly implicating him. I therefore concluded to tell you the plain truth, being satisfied the matter would thus appear much smaller than it would if seen by mere glimpses. I repeat that my appreciation of you has not abated. I can never forget, whilst I remember anything, that about the end of last year, and beginning of this, you gave us a hard earned victory which, had there been a defeat instead, the nation could scarcely have lived over. Neither can I forget the check you so opportunely gave to a dangerous sentiment which was spreading in the North. Yours as ever A. LINCOLN. The National Park Service largely agrees with Lincoln in this, giving further context:Again, McDonough explains further the extent of war weariness and outlines some of the considerations being outlined in regards to foreign intervention: Lincoln, the Cabinet, and the Generals, by Chester G. Hearn also outlines the foreign angle:
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Post by EwellHolmes on Aug 11, 2020 5:53:53 GMT
Modernizing a Slave Economy: The Economic Vision of the Confederate Nation by John Majewski, Chapter ECONOMIC NATIONALISM AND THE GROWTH OF THE CONFEDERATE STATE Also from Majewski, but this time the Chapter REDEFINING FREE TRADE TO MODERNIZE THE SOUTH: I recommend Colossal Ambitions: Confederate Planning for a Post–Civil War World by Adrian Brettle; it's extremely recent and goes in depth on Confederate thinking/planning at various stages of the war. Some highlights: jjohnson , thought you might find this useful for your timeline too.
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jjohnson
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Post by jjohnson on Aug 12, 2020 5:10:47 GMT
That's a very cool set of links and quotes, thanks! I've found a few interesting sources in a variety of books, but I'm always looking for more. I appreciate it!
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jjohnson
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Post by jjohnson on Aug 12, 2020 5:18:21 GMT
One argument I keep reading while researching is that the southerners at the time thought the south was paying most of the tariffs. The problem is, I can't find any data to support that argument. Do we know how much tariff revenue was collected at southern ports vs northern ports, or if it were a matter of paying the tariff and higher prices on northern goods as a result? And when they complained of bearing most of the cost vs most of the spending in the north, is there data on that too?
I was talking to a friend a little while back, saying "Idea of a Southern Nation" might have some of those kinds of answers, so maybe I'll grab that book sometime.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Aug 16, 2020 0:34:51 GMT
One argument I keep reading while researching is that the southerners at the time thought the south was paying most of the tariffs. The problem is, I can't find any data to support that argument. Do we know how much tariff revenue was collected at southern ports vs northern ports, or if it were a matter of paying the tariff and higher prices on northern goods as a result? And when they complained of bearing most of the cost vs most of the spending in the north, is there data on that too? I was talking to a friend a little while back, saying "Idea of a Southern Nation" might have some of those kinds of answers, so maybe I'll grab that book sometime. The latter and Majewski covers it extensively; I can send you the chapter in question if you don't have a JSTOR account?
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Post by EwellHolmes on Aug 17, 2020 6:56:28 GMT
Considering all factors, if Anglo-French intervention does not preempt it, the Confederates have two options for 1863:
1) East First - Bragg's Army of the Tennessee reclaims Middle Tennessee and thereafter assumes the defensive, detaching forces for duty in the Trans-Mississippi in opposing Grant. United with Johnston's relief force or directly added to Pemberton beforehand, it's likely they will prevent the capture of Vicksburg and break the siege. Lee, meanwhile, will invade the North with his full 75,000 against a much weaker Army of the Potomac; assuming just the two weakest corps are detached for the West (XI and XII) means Meade losses 19,000 men and thus its 75,000 to 71,000 for Gettysburg.
1) West First - Lee detaches Longstreet for duty in the West, most likely to Vicksburg as Longstreet argued. The Army of Tennessee, without the need to detach for Vicksburg, can thus invade Kentucky. Lee can still invade Pennsylvania with ~60,000 or, if Richmond is willing to take a risk, the full 75,000 if they pull from the coastal commands the same way they did in 1864. The Army of the Potomac will still be weakened by the pulling out of Corps for the West; given the threat to both Grant AND Kentucky, I find it likely more than two corps will be pulled out.
"If [General Robert E.] Lee should take Pennsylvania and drive the government out of Washington, the effect would be immediate recognition from all of the European States."
—William L. Dayton, July 10, 1863
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jjohnson
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Post by jjohnson on Aug 29, 2020 5:28:48 GMT
One argument I keep reading while researching is that the southerners at the time thought the south was paying most of the tariffs. The problem is, I can't find any data to support that argument. Do we know how much tariff revenue was collected at southern ports vs northern ports, or if it were a matter of paying the tariff and higher prices on northern goods as a result? And when they complained of bearing most of the cost vs most of the spending in the north, is there data on that too? I was talking to a friend a little while back, saying "Idea of a Southern Nation" might have some of those kinds of answers, so maybe I'll grab that book sometime. The latter and Majewski covers it extensively; I can send you the chapter in question if you don't have a JSTOR account? That would be very appreciated, thank you!
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