Zyobot
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Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
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Post by Zyobot on Jun 13, 2020 15:53:37 GMT
Though it's not as easy as establishing a Lunar base or more immediate plans to colonize Mars, perhaps these ambitions will help give our distant descendants the tools they need to set up shop in far more distant and unfamiliar territory. Namely, the asteroid belt that lies between Mars and Jupiter (and maybe also the Kuiper Belt much, much later on). So, if we were to successfully colonize it sometime in the far future, how would a society that takes place in the asteroid belt likely work? Off the top of my head, I have a few ideas that might sound narratively plausible, though the actual science and logistics behind them currently escapes me. By this, I mean colonists mining asteroids for raw materials (duh), but heavily incorporating robots and other forms of automation due to how perilous mining work can be. Something of a frontier reminiscent of the Old American West in space could also take shape, maybe starting off as more communal since the first wave of colonists would probably have to band together to survive, before branching off into a more individualist, self-interested direction if and when settlement becomes easier and less of a life-or-death hassle for most people. Depending on the extent and exact trajectory of cultural and technological development, I feel tempted to wonder if something of an 'anarcho-capitalist' social order might emerge in time, though there's still the possibility that it either collapses or authorities catch up to impose law and order on a once-anarchic asteroid belt. But that's I have for now. That said, him being someone who seems far more knowledgeable and imaginative than myself, maybe Isaac Arthur has some ideas that are worth considering? Asteroid MiningOutward Bound: Colonizing CeresThank you in advance, Zyobot |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 13, 2020 18:04:02 GMT
Though it's not as easy as establishing a Lunar base or more immediate plans to colonize Mars, perhaps these ambitions will help give our distant descendants the tools they need to set up shop in far more distant and unfamiliar territory. Namely, the asteroid belt that lies between Mars and Jupiter (and maybe also the Kuiper Belt much, much later on). So, if we were to successfully colonize it sometime in the far future, how would a society that takes place in the asteroid belt likely work? Off the top of my head, I have a few ideas that might sound narratively plausible, though the actual science and logistics behind them currently escapes me. By this, I mean colonists mining asteroids for raw materials (duh), but heavily incorporating robots and other forms of automation due to how perilous mining work can be. Something of a frontier reminiscent of the Old American West in space could also take shape, maybe starting off as more communal since the first wave of colonists would probably have to band together to survive, before branching off into a more individualist, self-interested direction if and when settlement becomes easier and less of a life-or-death hassle for most people. Depending on the extent and exact trajectory of cultural and technological development, I feel tempted to wonder if something of an 'anarcho-capitalist' social order might emerge in time, though there's still the possibility that it either collapses or authorities catch up to impose law and order on a once-anarchic asteroid belt. But that's I have for now. That said, him being someone who seems far more knowledgeable and imaginative than myself, maybe Isaac Arthur has some ideas that are worth considering? Asteroid MiningOutward Bound: Colonizing CeresThank you in advance, Zyobot Interesting, Zyobot. Asteroid Mining: What Will It Involve and Is This the Future of Wealth? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 14, 2020 11:56:25 GMT
Very interesting. Read Lordroel's link and watched the 1st Arthur video but don't have the time for a mass read now. [Admittedly doubt I will find the will to read many more as too many other things but looks a very good site].
Think one thing that is pointed out is that for actually sending stuff to Earth its going to be relatively small in mass. Both because of the costs of getting stuff back and because you don't really want to start bringing mountain sized rocks back to Earth orbit. Both because its easier to refine stuff on site - given one provision - and because the danger of a very nasty accident if something goes wrong. Or simply very large amounts of materials such as posphates I suspect. As well as the economic impacts of major market disrupt.
My concern about belt mining would be power. If/when we get reliable fusion that's no problem and possibly some other more exotic solutions will become available but without such would solar power be enough for high energy mining activities that far from the sun? Suspect since this is an obvious issue that the answer is yes but think to ask it.
In terms of potential issues I think the 1st one would be getting enough people and resources out of the Earth's gravity well. Know in previous decades, which is where most of my knowledge comes from Luna was considered an important stepping stone as once established you could get materials from there a lot cheaper than from Earth. [Smaller gravity well, no atmosphere, no environmental problems in mining, easier availability of cheap solar power etc.]. Of course in the short term people would have to come from Earth but in the early years I think there's going to be very little movement of people in terms of total numbers. Which could lead to social distancing between the two communities and issues of genetic diversity and adjustment of the 'outers' to life in space. Obviously in gravity for them and even more their descendants but also possibly a range of other issues.
Using some sort of Von Neumann machine instead of humans may seem an alternative but, as any SF fan will know there will be the issue of if control is lost as that could be very bad. Again a lot depends on how AI develops anyway which we can only guess at.
As to what sort of society that develops in the Belt most SF I've read, Larry Niven's Known Space stories probably being the most well known, at least for my generation, seem to assume an individualist 'pioneer' type culture and that's definitely a probability. Although there would be an issue of control as interests on Earth would be reluctant to become too dependent on a small number - at least for the 1st few centuries - of distant people who increasingly have little link with Earth. Also would such a society be sustainable in terms of adjustments for long term life in space? Do they continue to use Earth level gravity or go for a lower or even zero g lifestyle. The latter would be cheaper in terms of energy requirements but would further the distancing from Earth and also might produce serious problems.
In the early decades its going to be more of a centralised systems simply because only nations or just possibly very large commercial companies will have the resources and will to make the necessary investment for that long - at least without dramatic technological breakthroughs - and because the entire structure will depend on supplies from Earth or at least Earth orbit resources.
Anyway initial thoughts although my views are probably already somewhat dated. Must admit I was half way through the 1st video before I thought to check, when again did he die as I automatically jumped to someone called Issac A... talking about space exploration being Issac Asimov! - Checking he's been gone since 1992 which is starting to be a bloody long time! Think I have heard of Issac Arthur before but simply a question of inbuilt reflex.
Steve
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archibald
Ensign
The PRC was standing on the edge of an abyss. And Mao said "let's make a Great Leap Forward"
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Post by archibald on Aug 5, 2020 7:05:15 GMT
Asteroids are complicated because their trajectories around the Sun are pretty chaotic compared to the 8 planets. Distances, delta-v, launch windows are somewhat irregular, making them PITA for space travel. that is, for classic chemical rockets with pathetic delta-v and specific impulse.
Nowadays I'm more and more interested in pulsed NTR...
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