James G
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Post by James G on Jun 10, 2020 8:42:35 GMT
Navy SEALs killed bin Laden in a raid within Pakistan in May 2011. There were difficulties though with a crashed helicopter and a crowd of locals fast assembling.
What if Neptune Spear went wrong? Helicopter crashes a la Operation Desert One in 1980? Gunfire with the locals? Pakistani jets interfere with/without higher orders? OBL makes an escape and Pakistan accuses the US of violation of sovereignty and says OBL wasn't there? American proof doesn't convince anyone?
Could this cost Obama reelection in 2012?
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 10, 2020 9:39:22 GMT
This is definitely gonna cause a lot of scandal in Washington. Yes, Obama's fate is sealed for 2012.
Instead of street parties in front of the White House in D.C. and Ground Zero and Times Square in New York, all we get is protests.
I was only 14 at this time and I would have probably been shocked.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 10, 2020 10:49:53 GMT
Navy SEALs killed bin Laden in a raid within Pakistan in May 2011. There were difficulties though with a crashed helicopter and a crowd of locals fast assembling. What if Neptune Spear went wrong? Helicopter crashes a la Operation Desert One in 1980? Gunfire with the locals? Pakistani jets interfere with/without higher orders? OBL makes an escape and Pakistan accuses the US of violation of sovereignty and says OBL wasn't there? American proof doesn't convince anyone? Could this cost Obama reelection in 2012?
If it went that pear shaped it would probably cause a serious problem. Possibly not fatal as Republicans would have a harder time critising Obama for trying such an attempt - although no doubt they would criticise him for the US forces failing. Similarly given bin Laden reputation in the US after 9-11 its likely that a lot of the left wouldn't object too much, presuming that they were presuaded that Pakistan was lying and he was present. It would of course cause a serious problem between Pakistan and the US, which might mean closer relations with India.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2020 15:00:21 GMT
Navy SEALs killed bin Laden in a raid within Pakistan in May 2011. There were difficulties though with a crashed helicopter and a crowd of locals fast assembling. What if Neptune Spear went wrong? Helicopter crashes a la Operation Desert One in 1980? Gunfire with the locals? Pakistani jets interfere with/without higher orders? OBL makes an escape and Pakistan accuses the US of violation of sovereignty and says OBL wasn't there? American proof doesn't convince anyone? Could this cost Obama reelection in 2012? I think it will cost Pakistan its relations with the United States, not the first time a cover operation went wrong and nothing happened to the president.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 10, 2020 15:37:14 GMT
I wonder what will happen next? Bin Laden will probably hide to another location. How long he will survive is the next interesting question.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2020 15:59:33 GMT
I wonder what will happen next? Bin Laden will probably hide to another location. How long he will survive is the next interesting question. He will go deeper into hiding, now the question will be, what will he think about ISIL, a organization more radical and extreme than the one he is leading.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 10, 2020 16:23:38 GMT
I wonder what will happen next? Bin Laden will probably hide to another location. How long he will survive is the next interesting question. He will go deeper into hiding, now the question will be, what will he think about ISIL, a organization more radical and extreme than the one he is leading. Depends if he lives long enough to see them emerge by late 2013. This is the interesting part. Maybe he'd declare war on them.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 10, 2020 16:27:16 GMT
He will go deeper into hiding, now the question will be, what will he think about ISIL, a organization more radical and extreme than the one he is leading. Depends if he lives long enough to see them emerge by late 2013. This is the interesting part. Maybe he'd declare war on them. Well they did in OTL, but only in 2014, if bin Laden was alive he could do it a year earlier as i doubt he will allow a new kid on the block to take away all the attention from his terrorist origination.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 10, 2020 16:28:41 GMT
Depends if he lives long enough to see them emerge by late 2013. This is the interesting part. Maybe he'd declare war on them. Well they did in OTL, but only in 2014, if bin Laden was alive he could do it a year earlier as i doubt he will allow a new kid on the block to take away all the attention from his terrorist origination.
Fully agree, With people like them its all about power and none of them wants any rivals so likely to be an even bloodier conflict between the two.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 10, 2020 16:31:06 GMT
Navy SEALs killed bin Laden in a raid within Pakistan in May 2011. There were difficulties though with a crashed helicopter and a crowd of locals fast assembling. What if Neptune Spear went wrong? Helicopter crashes a la Operation Desert One in 1980? Gunfire with the locals? Pakistani jets interfere with/without higher orders? OBL makes an escape and Pakistan accuses the US of violation of sovereignty and says OBL wasn't there? American proof doesn't convince anyone? Could this cost Obama reelection in 2012? I think it will cost Pakistan its relations with the United States, not the first time a cover operation went wrong and nothing happened to the president.
True but given how divisive politics are in the US by this time there's no doubt that the Republicans would seek to make as much capital as they could out of it. Would hurt Obama but possibly also cause a backlash if the right was seen as trying to turn dead American soldiers into tools for their own success so could reduce the impact.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 10, 2020 16:32:36 GMT
Robert O'Neill would be dead and won't be an influential right-wing speaker he is today.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 10, 2020 16:40:37 GMT
Robert O'Neill would be dead and won't be an influential right-wing speaker he is today.
Assuming he's one of the seals involved. Very likely and a good point as one of the things we often overlook. Those people will have impacts which will increase as time goes on aside from the success or failure of the operation itself.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 10, 2020 17:46:53 GMT
Robert O'Neill would be dead and won't be an influential right-wing speaker he is today.
Assuming he's one of the seals involved. Very likely and a good point as one of the things we often overlook. Those people will have impacts which will increase as time goes on aside from the success or failure of the operation itself.
He is the SEAL that shot Bin Laden.
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