James G
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Post by James G on May 10, 2020 16:46:09 GMT
Afghanistan is said to be the graveyard of empires: where their armies are beaten and it brings those empires down.
The war in Afghanistan certainly did the USSR no favours and was the last war fought by the Soviets before their empire collapsed.
Can they win though?
They never went in expecting a decade-long war like they ended up fighting. All the advantages were there on paper.
I'm thinking somehow Moscow can cut off external support for the Afghans or none is sent not on the back of Moscow's actions.
Could this bring about a victory long before the eventual Soviet collapse?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 10, 2020 17:23:38 GMT
Afghanistan is said to be the graveyard of empires: where their armies are beaten and it brings those empires down. The war in Afghanistan certainly did the USSR no favours and was the last war fought by the Soviets before their empire collapsed. Can they win though? They never went in expecting a decade-long war like they ended up fighting. All the advantages were there on paper. I'm thinking somehow Moscow can cut off external support for the Afghans or none is sent not on the back of Moscow's actions. Could this bring about a victory long before the eventual Soviet collapse? The Soviets had as much change of winning in Afghanistan as the Americans had in Vietnam. |
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James G
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Post by James G on May 10, 2020 17:32:41 GMT
Afghanistan is said to be the graveyard of empires: where their armies are beaten and it brings those empires down. The war in Afghanistan certainly did the USSR no favours and was the last war fought by the Soviets before their empire collapsed. Can they win though? They never went in expecting a decade-long war like they ended up fighting. All the advantages were there on paper. I'm thinking somehow Moscow can cut off external support for the Afghans or none is sent not on the back of Moscow's actions. Could this bring about a victory long before the eventual Soviet collapse? The Soviets had as much change of winning in Afghanistan as the Americans had in Vietnam. Bold statement! |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 10, 2020 17:36:25 GMT
The Soviets had as much change of winning in Afghanistan as the Americans had in Vietnam. Bold statement! Well the Soviets helped the Vietnamese and the Americans helped the Afghanistan rebels, if the Afghanistan rebels did not get aid from the CIA in the form of Operation Cyclone it would be a start. |
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Post by EwellHolmes on May 10, 2020 22:15:34 GMT
Basically OTL. The DRA outlasted the USSR, even.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 11, 2020 3:13:21 GMT
Basically OTL. The DRA outlasted the USSR, even. Only by a year. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 11, 2020 5:53:57 GMT
In the timeline called New Union over the Alternate History Wiki, this is how the Soviets "won" in Afghanistan: althistory.fandom.com/wiki/Differences_(New_Union)#AfghanistanQuoting the articles: Mikhail Gorbachev and Nikolai Ryzhkov would continue to give economic and military aid to the pro-Soviet government of Mohammad Najibullah in Afghanistan throughout the early 1990s. Najibullah was able to hold onto power prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union (OTL), so it would be safe to assume he'd continue to do so (ATL). Remaining in power, Najibullah would continue to work with the Mujahideen and others to bring an end to decades of war.
After years of negotiations, a peace plan is finalized around 1994 (brokered by Mikhail Gorbachev). Under the plan, the monarchy was to be re-established in Afghanistan. The former King of Afghanistan, Mohammed Zahir Shah, agreed to return to Afghanistan provided the people wished for him to do so (which they unanimously agreed upon in a referendum). The monarchy was to mostly become a figurehead for Afghanistan, with most of the decisions to be done under a parliamentary democracy (headed by a Prime Minister). Najibullah agreed to step down as leader of Afghanistan, with the monarchy taking affect in 1995.
Despite the unanimous support by the Mujahideen (including military leader Ahmad Shah Massoud), the more Islamist factions (headed by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Hezbi Islami) would continue the Civil War. This new conflict would only last a few years, as the re-established Kingdom of Afghanistan now had the backing of the citizens, much of the former Mujahideen, and even backing from the Soviet Union. Despite the end of American backing, Pakistan would continue to aid the Islamists during this time. Fighting comes to a standstill as the pro-Pakistani forces are able to hold onto the mountainous regions in southern Afghanistan. A UN-backed ceasefire take place around 1998, at which time southern Afghanistan gains de facto independence as the Islamic Republic of Pashtunistan (which is only recognized by Pakistan).
The Kingdom of Afghanistan has begun to rebuild itself since the 2000s (with international backing) and has emerged as a working democracy. Afghanistan continues to have close relations with the Soviet Union. The Islamic Republic of Pashtunistan is primarily backed by Pakistan and has been regarded as a buffer state between them and the pro-Soviet government in Kabul. Fighting within the region is centered around the de facto border between Afghanistan and Pashtunistan, with the rest of the region remaining peaceful.
The Taliban (as we know it) was never established, with elements of which likely being absorbed into Hezbi Islami. Al-Qaeda would not see the region as a potential safe haven, instead choosing to remain in Sudan. |
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James G
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Post by James G on May 11, 2020 17:38:10 GMT
Well the Soviets helped the Vietnamese and the Americans helped the Afghanistan rebels, if the Afghanistan rebels did not get aid from the CIA in the form of Operation Cyclone it would be a start. I agree: cutting of Op. Cyclone would be important. No Charlie Wilson and that is the end of that. In the timeline called New Union over the Alternate History Wiki, this is how the Soviets "won" in Afghanistan: althistory.fandom.com/wiki/Differences_(New_Union)#AfghanistanQuoting the articles: Mikhail Gorbachev and Nikolai Ryzhkov would continue to give economic and military aid to the pro-Soviet government of Mohammad Najibullah in Afghanistan throughout the early 1990s. Najibullah was able to hold onto power prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union (OTL), so it would be safe to assume he'd continue to do so (ATL). Remaining in power, Najibullah would continue to work with the Mujahideen and others to bring an end to decades of war.
After years of negotiations, a peace plan is finalized around 1994 (brokered by Mikhail Gorbachev). Under the plan, the monarchy was to be re-established in Afghanistan. The former King of Afghanistan, Mohammed Zahir Shah, agreed to return to Afghanistan provided the people wished for him to do so (which they unanimously agreed upon in a referendum). The monarchy was to mostly become a figurehead for Afghanistan, with most of the decisions to be done under a parliamentary democracy (headed by a Prime Minister). Najibullah agreed to step down as leader of Afghanistan, with the monarchy taking affect in 1995.
Despite the unanimous support by the Mujahideen (including military leader Ahmad Shah Massoud), the more Islamist factions (headed by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Hezbi Islami) would continue the Civil War. This new conflict would only last a few years, as the re-established Kingdom of Afghanistan now had the backing of the citizens, much of the former Mujahideen, and even backing from the Soviet Union. Despite the end of American backing, Pakistan would continue to aid the Islamists during this time. Fighting comes to a standstill as the pro-Pakistani forces are able to hold onto the mountainous regions in southern Afghanistan. A UN-backed ceasefire take place around 1998, at which time southern Afghanistan gains de facto independence as the Islamic Republic of Pashtunistan (which is only recognized by Pakistan).
The Kingdom of Afghanistan has begun to rebuild itself since the 2000s (with international backing) and has emerged as a working democracy. Afghanistan continues to have close relations with the Soviet Union. The Islamic Republic of Pashtunistan is primarily backed by Pakistan and has been regarded as a buffer state between them and the pro-Soviet government in Kabul. Fighting within the region is centered around the de facto border between Afghanistan and Pashtunistan, with the rest of the region remaining peaceful.
The Taliban (as we know it) was never established, with elements of which likely being absorbed into Hezbi Islami. Al-Qaeda would not see the region as a potential safe haven, instead choosing to remain in Sudan. I am raising a smile at the thought of the USSR putting a monarch into power. Of course, there is a reason, but... well... it would be a hard one to explain! |
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Post by EwellHolmes on May 11, 2020 20:43:21 GMT
Basically OTL. The DRA outlasted the USSR, even. Only by a year. Which shows how effective the Soviets had been if their puppets could outlast them; not even the GDR with all of the Stasi and no insurgency achieve that. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 12, 2020 3:21:32 GMT
Well the Soviets helped the Vietnamese and the Americans helped the Afghanistan rebels, if the Afghanistan rebels did not get aid from the CIA in the form of Operation Cyclone it would be a start. I agree: cutting of Op. Cyclone would be important. No Charlie Wilson and that is the end of that. In the timeline called New Union over the Alternate History Wiki, this is how the Soviets "won" in Afghanistan: althistory.fandom.com/wiki/Differences_(New_Union)#AfghanistanQuoting the articles: Mikhail Gorbachev and Nikolai Ryzhkov would continue to give economic and military aid to the pro-Soviet government of Mohammad Najibullah in Afghanistan throughout the early 1990s. Najibullah was able to hold onto power prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union (OTL), so it would be safe to assume he'd continue to do so (ATL). Remaining in power, Najibullah would continue to work with the Mujahideen and others to bring an end to decades of war.
After years of negotiations, a peace plan is finalized around 1994 (brokered by Mikhail Gorbachev). Under the plan, the monarchy was to be re-established in Afghanistan. The former King of Afghanistan, Mohammed Zahir Shah, agreed to return to Afghanistan provided the people wished for him to do so (which they unanimously agreed upon in a referendum). The monarchy was to mostly become a figurehead for Afghanistan, with most of the decisions to be done under a parliamentary democracy (headed by a Prime Minister). Najibullah agreed to step down as leader of Afghanistan, with the monarchy taking affect in 1995.
Despite the unanimous support by the Mujahideen (including military leader Ahmad Shah Massoud), the more Islamist factions (headed by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Hezbi Islami) would continue the Civil War. This new conflict would only last a few years, as the re-established Kingdom of Afghanistan now had the backing of the citizens, much of the former Mujahideen, and even backing from the Soviet Union. Despite the end of American backing, Pakistan would continue to aid the Islamists during this time. Fighting comes to a standstill as the pro-Pakistani forces are able to hold onto the mountainous regions in southern Afghanistan. A UN-backed ceasefire take place around 1998, at which time southern Afghanistan gains de facto independence as the Islamic Republic of Pashtunistan (which is only recognized by Pakistan).
The Kingdom of Afghanistan has begun to rebuild itself since the 2000s (with international backing) and has emerged as a working democracy. Afghanistan continues to have close relations with the Soviet Union. The Islamic Republic of Pashtunistan is primarily backed by Pakistan and has been regarded as a buffer state between them and the pro-Soviet government in Kabul. Fighting within the region is centered around the de facto border between Afghanistan and Pashtunistan, with the rest of the region remaining peaceful.
The Taliban (as we know it) was never established, with elements of which likely being absorbed into Hezbi Islami. Al-Qaeda would not see the region as a potential safe haven, instead choosing to remain in Sudan. I am raising a smile at the thought of the USSR putting a monarch into power. Of course, there is a reason, but... well... it would be a hard one to explain! Well the USSR returning the monarchy occurred because the New Union Treaty was signed. The USSR is officially known as the Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics in that timeline and is reformed into a constitutional republic similar to OTL. Not a communist state but still uses the hammer and sickle flag. |
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