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Post by EwellHolmes on May 9, 2020 21:54:40 GMT
Stalin seemed oblivious of the emerging threat; German overflights dramatically increased over the course of 1941 and his own intelligence services were repeatedly warning the Germans were preparing for something. He refused to believe that and IOTL had a psychological collapse in June, after the German invasion. Given that after the Spring of 1940 he was the only player left vis-a-vis Germany, I fail to see how the situation here would result in anything different. As noted, talks to this effect had begun before it was even clear the Germans would seek aggression against Poland anyway IOTL. Here, in particular, the same strategic thinking is present and even more vital; he can make a pact to split Poland with Germany, and Stalin knows with absolute certainty he has to buy more time from Hitler in order to get the Red Army ready. Cutting a deal serves that interest.
That's because he deluded himself that Hitler wouldn't be stupid enough to start a 2 front war while the Soviets were giving Germany massive economic aid. If no such agreement exists there is a good chance he will be a lot more logical. He may still be bloody stupid. That's the problem with people who have so much power in a totalitarian state, as they start to believe their own desires because no one dare question their opinions but its not certain.
You were talking earlier about Poland submitting to Germany without a fight to protect themselves from the Soviets - not realising that the Nazis are probably an even worse option until its too late. In that case there will be no such agreement because Hitler gets what he wants without a deal with Stalin as well as a much better front line for his attack.
Steve
Given the talks started in October of 1938, I see no reason why Stalin wouldn't here; he didn't end the agreement after was France was defeated after all. The Red Army in 1939 is in a horrible state, as evidenced by the failures in Poland, Manchuria and most prominently Finland; it's wracked by continued purges and the modernization and expansion campaign that was expected to finish in 1942 was still embryonic given it started in 1938. Stalin knows he needs to buy Hitler off, and the agreement is the best way to do so. As for Poland, I could see Hitler going either way on it. If Poland refuses to deal or if it is expedient to deal with Stalin, he'll do it. Otherwise, if Poland sees the writing on the wall and takes the deal the Germans were angling for prior to August of 1939, then the Germans are in position for 1940. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 10, 2020 8:46:24 GMT
That's because he deluded himself that Hitler wouldn't be stupid enough to start a 2 front war while the Soviets were giving Germany massive economic aid. If no such agreement exists there is a good chance he will be a lot more logical. He may still be bloody stupid. That's the problem with people who have so much power in a totalitarian state, as they start to believe their own desires because no one dare question their opinions but its not certain.
You were talking earlier about Poland submitting to Germany without a fight to protect themselves from the Soviets - not realising that the Nazis are probably an even worse option until its too late. In that case there will be no such agreement because Hitler gets what he wants without a deal with Stalin as well as a much better front line for his attack.
Steve
Given the talks started in October of 1938, I see no reason why Stalin wouldn't here; he didn't end the agreement after was France was defeated after all. The Red Army in 1939 is in a horrible state, as evidenced by the failures in Poland, Manchuria and most prominently Finland; it's wracked by continued purges and the modernization and expansion campaign that was expected to finish in 1942 was still embryonic given it started in 1938. Stalin knows he needs to buy Hitler off, and the agreement is the best way to do so. As for Poland, I could see Hitler going either way on it. If Poland refuses to deal or if it is expedient to deal with Stalin, he'll do it. Otherwise, if Poland sees the writing on the wall and takes the deal the Germans were angling for prior to August of 1939, then the Germans are in position for 1940.
The fact there are talks that early means little. After all Stalin was talking with the western allies in the same period and that came to nothing.
Steve
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