Post by eurofed on Oct 6, 2019 12:05:54 GMT
Current right-wing politics inspired me to an interesting (if grim) thought experiment. What if classic fascism had arisen and taken over in a successful and fully realized federal EU, with a level of industrialization comparable to late 20th century, and this had driven the fascists to forsake ethnic nationalism, embrace European unity, and strive to reshape it in their image? For the sake of distinction, let’s call this Pan-European version of fascism “frontism”.
Moreover, what would happen if these circumstances had caused the movement to change its ideology and embrace a supremacist agenda more akin to modern White nationalism? In other words, the frontists accept more or less all European ethnicities as equal and valuable components of their supremacist in-group, and have no wish to discriminate or persecute them. They retain a strong wish to destroy the USSR if they get a chance, conquer the Russian peoples, and assimilate them in their empire, but they do not mean to treat them any worse than Western Europeans. Of course, they keep their drive to eliminate anyone that defies their rule, as usual for totalitarian regimes.
As it concerns the Jews, the frontists do not really like them in their heart of hearts, but pragmatically deem them too important, influential, and valuable to harass, so they mostly leave them alone and treat them relatively well. They may even opportunistically come to support the Zionist project and state-sponsored mass emigration of European Jews to their new homeland, in Palestine if possible, in some corner of Africa if need be.
The frontists focus most of their murderous racist hate against non-White ethnicities, especially the ones, such as the Arabs and the Blacks, which they deem especially troublesome for reasons of proximity, territorial competition, historical enmity, and/or sheer prejudice. Broadly speaking, TTL version of fascism replaces Eastern Europe with Africa and the Middle East as the target of a grandiose settler colonization project fueled by large-scale ethnic cleansing and genocide of natives.
They aim to expel or exterminate most of the Arab and Black population of Africa and the Middle East and replace them with White settlers, especially in the areas that are sufficiently valuable economically and suited for large-scale European immigration. As it concerns the North African and Middle Eastern natives, they deem a lot of them too ‘corrupted’ by (i.e. loyal to) Arab culture and Islam to be tolerated. However, they are willing to make an assimilationist exception for the elements that had apparently resisted such ‘corruption’, such as Christian Arabs and collaborationists that forsake Islam and accept cultural assimilation.
For obvious racist reasons, they allow no such reprieve for Black Africans, and plan ethnic cleansing, genocide, or enslavement as their inevitable doom. They aim to wipe them out from the valuable parts of Africa that seem suitable for White settler colonization, and keep them as a captive workforce and enslaved underclass in those areas that have useful resources but are inhospitable to Europeans. For practical reasons, they are probably going to corral survivors in ‘reservations’ in the least valuable and most inhospitable corners of the continent.
As it concerns the South Asians, East Asians, and Latinos, distance, a relative lack of imperialist competition, appreciation for their achievements, and a wish for allies and trade partners make the frontists take a practical and relatively open-minded attitude towards them, up to and including a potential willingness to treat them as near-equals and allies if convenient.
As to how this scenario might conceivably take place, let’s assume ITTL a broad equivalent of WWI took place about two decades earlier, at the end of the 19th century. It ended in a stalemate followed by collapse of pro-war governments, the downfall of the old empires, the rise of Communism in Russia, and a peace of exhaustion.
By a compromise peace settlement, France took Alsace-Lorraine, Luxemburg, and Wallonia, with the Netherlands getting the Flanders. Germany kept West Prussia and Upper Silesia, annexed Austria and the Sudetenland, and formed a confederation with Czechia. Italy got Trent, South Tyrol, the Kustenland, and coastal Dalmatia, and formed a confederation with Carniola, Montenegro, and Albania. Hungary kept the broad equivalent of 1941 borders and formed a confederation with Slovakia. Congress Poland became independent with Posen and Galicia. Like Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia failed to form because of the war's outcome and the postwar disruption caused by the conflict with the Soviets. Therefore, Croatia became independent and partitioned Bosnia with Serbia. In various cases, plebiscites and/or population transfers helped stabilize and entrench these new borders.
Being victorious in Russia, the Communists got emboldened to attempt spreading their ideology and control across Europe by a mix of armed invasion and revolutionary destabilization. Government forces combined with right-wing militias however were able to suppress Red insurrections in Western Europe and a hastily assembled European coalition contained and pushed back Soviet invasion of Central Europe. However, the Europeans could not stop the Reds from taking over vast chunks of the Balkans and the Near East with the help of Communist insurgents and pro-Soviet proxies.
The compromise peace left the Soviets in control of Finland, the Baltic States, eastern Poland up to the Narew-Vistula-San line, and Moldavia-Bessarabia, which they annexed as various SSRs. They also held Serbia, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Dobruja, and mainland Greece, which they merged into a Communist Balkan Federation, a client state of the USSR. Insular Greece remained free from Red control and formed an independent state under the military protection of the European powers. Pro-Soviet forces also seized control of Turkey, North Persia, and Afghanistan, which became other client states of the USSR. The Soviets exploited the situation to annex Western Armenia and Iranian Azerbaijan. TTL Iron Curtain rose at the Vistula-Carpathians-Danube line, with an extension cutting through the Western Balkans.
The outcome of the war and revulsion at the suffering it caused inspired widespread rejection of nationalism and gave a massive popularity boost to the ideal of European unity across Western and Central Europe. In a few years, the Western and Central European nations merged into a close analogue of the EU, which quickly took a federal character. In addition to all its OTL integration achievements, this version of the EU had a constitution, a strong common army, fiscal integration with well-developed taxation and welfare systems, and a semi-presidential government. The latter included a president directly elected by European citizens, a parliament with legislative initiative that included a directly elected assembly and a senate appointed by national parliaments, a supranational executive accountable to the parliament and the president, and a well-developed Pan-European party system.
France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Croatia, and White Greece joined the new federal union as its member states. Czechia, Slovakia, Carniola, Montenegro, and Albania joined as well as autonomous subunits due to their confederal bonds with Germany, Hungary, or Italy. Postwar Germany kept its federal character with a reorganization of its internal borders; Italy and Spain evolved in a similar way, granting a sizable degree of devolution to their regions. The European peoples' motivations for integration included a wish to avoid another general war, expectation that continental unity would bring political stabilization and economic development, and mutual protection from the Soviet threat. For a good while, it seemed history would fulfil postwar hopes for peace, democracy, and prosperity.
For about three decades, Europe experienced a solid boom thanks to economic unification of the continent. This paved the way to major industrialization of its Southern and Eastern regions and consolidated mass consensus to the European unity project. Its success fostered the rise and entrenchment of a solid Pan-European identity among the peoples of the continent. A wish for ease of communication drove the Europeans to adopt a reformed version of Esperanto (effectively indistinguishable from Ido) as their lingua franca, official language, and a mandatory school subject. In a few decades, Ido achieved strong popularity and became widespread in Europe among the elites, middle classes, and younger generations.
Chance discovery of North African oilfields further fueled European economic boom and infrastructure build-up in the region. It also greatly increased European appetite for acquisition and development of African and Middle Eastern resources, as well as interest for colonization of Africa using the settler model that had been so successful for the Americas.
The war also caused a partial collapse of the British Empire, as the Dominions reacted badly to paying a large price in blood for the empire’s glory in a seemingly pointless conflict. A series of peaceful republican revolutions swept the Dominions and drove them to sever political ties with Britain. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand joined the USA, out of a wish to get protection and stability from a sympathetic power that had stayed neutral and shared their culture. The English-speaking states and provinces of the Dominions became US states, while the territories became US territories. Quebec became an associated state of the USA.
South Africa decided to stay an independent republic and took over Southern Rhodesia, Bechuanaland, and South West Africa. Over time, South Africa developed increasingly close ties with Europe, up to becoming a client state of the EU. The British however were able to keep control of their colonial empire in Asia and considerably enlarged it since the war and its peace settlement enabled Britain to take control of European colonies in Indochina and Indonesia. The British also seized control of the Levant, Mesopotamia, and Arabia during the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the conflict with the Soviets, turning the region into a series of client Arab kingdoms. South Persia became another client state of the British Empire.
The Scramble for Africa, the Great War, Europe’s unification, the post-war settlement, and South Africa’s independence left the EU in control of the vast majority of the African continent. European colonies included the Maghreb; most of West Africa except US-aligned Liberia and the British colonies of Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone; the Congo basin in Central Africa; Angola, Mozambique, and Northern Rhodesia in Southern Africa; and most of East Africa except British Kenya and Uganda. The British also kept control of Egypt and Sudan as a protectorate.
The Spanish-American War drove the Americans to annex Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines. Border clashes between the USA and Mexican revolutionaries during the Mexican revolution caused an American intervention and annexation of Northern Mexico (Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Neuvo Leon, Tamaulipas, Sinaloa, Durango, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosi). US involvement in the Banana Wars led to American annexation of the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua and building of the Nicaragua Canal. Soon after the Americans accomplished pacification of the Philippines, they set up the area as a Commonwealth (associated state) of the USA. They made no commitment for an eventual independence of the Philippines. Mexico, Haiti, and the Central American republics became client states of the USA, although beset by serious political instability. The attempts to build another trans-oceanic canal in Panama failed and the area stayed part of Colombia.
Territorial expansion and political changes in Europe drove the Americans to avoid setting any limitation to European immigration. On the other hand, the economic boom in the EU and vibrant industrialization of Southern and Eastern Europe made immigration from those regions less plentiful than it would otherwise have been, with the notable exception of those refugees from the Soviet bloc that did not went to the EU.
In East Asia, modernization of Japan and decline up to revolutionary collapse of Qing China took place much as usual. The First Sino-Japanese War, the Russo-Japanese War, the Great War, Japanese intervention in Siberia, and Russo-Japanese invasion of Manchuria more or less merged in a single event sequence. Its outcome included a Japanese decisive success and Japan’s annexation of Sakhalin, Korea, Outer and Inner Manchuria, Taiwan, and Hainan. The Great War and the rise of Communism distracted and concerned the other great powers enough to tolerate this amount of Japanese expansionism. The war and revolutionary turmoil weakened Russia and China enough to force a reluctant acceptance of this outcome.
After they acquired their overseas territories, the Japanese expelled most of their Han and Russian inhabitants (which were not that numerous yet in this period), fearing their disloyalty. Early acquisition of Korea enabled its successful political and cultural assimilation in the Japanese Empire since it happened before the Korean kingdom had done any native attempt at modernization. Much as it happened in Japan, many Koreans hence came to appreciate Japanese rule as a bringer of progress and development. Therefore, they accepted it in exchange for modernization, enfranchisement, and respect of their cultural heritage.
Pretty much the same relationship developed between the empire and the natives of Taiwan, Hainan, and Manchuria after the expulsion of the Han and the Russians. Over time, Japan encouraged a sizable number of Japanese and Koreans to settle in the overseas territories, especially low-populated Greater Manchuria and Sakhalin. The ongoing drive to modernize Japan combined with early acquisition of Korea motivated the Japanese reformers to enact a linguistic reform of the Japanese and Korean languages to accomplish their merger and to replace their writing systems with Latin script. Much like what happened in Europe with Ido, growing linguistic cohesion thanks to success of Japanese-Korean helped stabilize and entrench the political unity and stability of the Japanese Empire for the foreseeable future.
Settlement of Greater Manchuria and Sakhalin enabled use of their abundant natural resources, including the Manchurian oilfields, to fuel ongoing industrialization of Japan and Korea. Much like it happened with Europe and its African colonies, this process made the Japanese Empire less dependent on foreign trade to support its economy but also more determined to defend their overseas territories from Soviet or Chinese threats.
Revolutionary collapse of the Qing dynasty plunged China into a period of warlord chaos. It gradually got simplified into a threefold division between reformist monarchists that held most of the North, nationalist republicans that held most of the South, and the strongest warlords. Over time, the situation further evolved into a dual division as the other factions defeated or coopted the remaining warlords, and a Soviet-sponsored Communist uprising took over the North. In the end, a seemingly stable division of China proper arose between Communist North China and Nationalist South China. The USSR annexed Xinjiang and Outer-Inner Mongolia, and Tibet became a British protectorate.
Moreover, what would happen if these circumstances had caused the movement to change its ideology and embrace a supremacist agenda more akin to modern White nationalism? In other words, the frontists accept more or less all European ethnicities as equal and valuable components of their supremacist in-group, and have no wish to discriminate or persecute them. They retain a strong wish to destroy the USSR if they get a chance, conquer the Russian peoples, and assimilate them in their empire, but they do not mean to treat them any worse than Western Europeans. Of course, they keep their drive to eliminate anyone that defies their rule, as usual for totalitarian regimes.
As it concerns the Jews, the frontists do not really like them in their heart of hearts, but pragmatically deem them too important, influential, and valuable to harass, so they mostly leave them alone and treat them relatively well. They may even opportunistically come to support the Zionist project and state-sponsored mass emigration of European Jews to their new homeland, in Palestine if possible, in some corner of Africa if need be.
The frontists focus most of their murderous racist hate against non-White ethnicities, especially the ones, such as the Arabs and the Blacks, which they deem especially troublesome for reasons of proximity, territorial competition, historical enmity, and/or sheer prejudice. Broadly speaking, TTL version of fascism replaces Eastern Europe with Africa and the Middle East as the target of a grandiose settler colonization project fueled by large-scale ethnic cleansing and genocide of natives.
They aim to expel or exterminate most of the Arab and Black population of Africa and the Middle East and replace them with White settlers, especially in the areas that are sufficiently valuable economically and suited for large-scale European immigration. As it concerns the North African and Middle Eastern natives, they deem a lot of them too ‘corrupted’ by (i.e. loyal to) Arab culture and Islam to be tolerated. However, they are willing to make an assimilationist exception for the elements that had apparently resisted such ‘corruption’, such as Christian Arabs and collaborationists that forsake Islam and accept cultural assimilation.
For obvious racist reasons, they allow no such reprieve for Black Africans, and plan ethnic cleansing, genocide, or enslavement as their inevitable doom. They aim to wipe them out from the valuable parts of Africa that seem suitable for White settler colonization, and keep them as a captive workforce and enslaved underclass in those areas that have useful resources but are inhospitable to Europeans. For practical reasons, they are probably going to corral survivors in ‘reservations’ in the least valuable and most inhospitable corners of the continent.
As it concerns the South Asians, East Asians, and Latinos, distance, a relative lack of imperialist competition, appreciation for their achievements, and a wish for allies and trade partners make the frontists take a practical and relatively open-minded attitude towards them, up to and including a potential willingness to treat them as near-equals and allies if convenient.
As to how this scenario might conceivably take place, let’s assume ITTL a broad equivalent of WWI took place about two decades earlier, at the end of the 19th century. It ended in a stalemate followed by collapse of pro-war governments, the downfall of the old empires, the rise of Communism in Russia, and a peace of exhaustion.
By a compromise peace settlement, France took Alsace-Lorraine, Luxemburg, and Wallonia, with the Netherlands getting the Flanders. Germany kept West Prussia and Upper Silesia, annexed Austria and the Sudetenland, and formed a confederation with Czechia. Italy got Trent, South Tyrol, the Kustenland, and coastal Dalmatia, and formed a confederation with Carniola, Montenegro, and Albania. Hungary kept the broad equivalent of 1941 borders and formed a confederation with Slovakia. Congress Poland became independent with Posen and Galicia. Like Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia failed to form because of the war's outcome and the postwar disruption caused by the conflict with the Soviets. Therefore, Croatia became independent and partitioned Bosnia with Serbia. In various cases, plebiscites and/or population transfers helped stabilize and entrench these new borders.
Being victorious in Russia, the Communists got emboldened to attempt spreading their ideology and control across Europe by a mix of armed invasion and revolutionary destabilization. Government forces combined with right-wing militias however were able to suppress Red insurrections in Western Europe and a hastily assembled European coalition contained and pushed back Soviet invasion of Central Europe. However, the Europeans could not stop the Reds from taking over vast chunks of the Balkans and the Near East with the help of Communist insurgents and pro-Soviet proxies.
The compromise peace left the Soviets in control of Finland, the Baltic States, eastern Poland up to the Narew-Vistula-San line, and Moldavia-Bessarabia, which they annexed as various SSRs. They also held Serbia, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Dobruja, and mainland Greece, which they merged into a Communist Balkan Federation, a client state of the USSR. Insular Greece remained free from Red control and formed an independent state under the military protection of the European powers. Pro-Soviet forces also seized control of Turkey, North Persia, and Afghanistan, which became other client states of the USSR. The Soviets exploited the situation to annex Western Armenia and Iranian Azerbaijan. TTL Iron Curtain rose at the Vistula-Carpathians-Danube line, with an extension cutting through the Western Balkans.
The outcome of the war and revulsion at the suffering it caused inspired widespread rejection of nationalism and gave a massive popularity boost to the ideal of European unity across Western and Central Europe. In a few years, the Western and Central European nations merged into a close analogue of the EU, which quickly took a federal character. In addition to all its OTL integration achievements, this version of the EU had a constitution, a strong common army, fiscal integration with well-developed taxation and welfare systems, and a semi-presidential government. The latter included a president directly elected by European citizens, a parliament with legislative initiative that included a directly elected assembly and a senate appointed by national parliaments, a supranational executive accountable to the parliament and the president, and a well-developed Pan-European party system.
France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Croatia, and White Greece joined the new federal union as its member states. Czechia, Slovakia, Carniola, Montenegro, and Albania joined as well as autonomous subunits due to their confederal bonds with Germany, Hungary, or Italy. Postwar Germany kept its federal character with a reorganization of its internal borders; Italy and Spain evolved in a similar way, granting a sizable degree of devolution to their regions. The European peoples' motivations for integration included a wish to avoid another general war, expectation that continental unity would bring political stabilization and economic development, and mutual protection from the Soviet threat. For a good while, it seemed history would fulfil postwar hopes for peace, democracy, and prosperity.
For about three decades, Europe experienced a solid boom thanks to economic unification of the continent. This paved the way to major industrialization of its Southern and Eastern regions and consolidated mass consensus to the European unity project. Its success fostered the rise and entrenchment of a solid Pan-European identity among the peoples of the continent. A wish for ease of communication drove the Europeans to adopt a reformed version of Esperanto (effectively indistinguishable from Ido) as their lingua franca, official language, and a mandatory school subject. In a few decades, Ido achieved strong popularity and became widespread in Europe among the elites, middle classes, and younger generations.
Chance discovery of North African oilfields further fueled European economic boom and infrastructure build-up in the region. It also greatly increased European appetite for acquisition and development of African and Middle Eastern resources, as well as interest for colonization of Africa using the settler model that had been so successful for the Americas.
The war also caused a partial collapse of the British Empire, as the Dominions reacted badly to paying a large price in blood for the empire’s glory in a seemingly pointless conflict. A series of peaceful republican revolutions swept the Dominions and drove them to sever political ties with Britain. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand joined the USA, out of a wish to get protection and stability from a sympathetic power that had stayed neutral and shared their culture. The English-speaking states and provinces of the Dominions became US states, while the territories became US territories. Quebec became an associated state of the USA.
South Africa decided to stay an independent republic and took over Southern Rhodesia, Bechuanaland, and South West Africa. Over time, South Africa developed increasingly close ties with Europe, up to becoming a client state of the EU. The British however were able to keep control of their colonial empire in Asia and considerably enlarged it since the war and its peace settlement enabled Britain to take control of European colonies in Indochina and Indonesia. The British also seized control of the Levant, Mesopotamia, and Arabia during the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the conflict with the Soviets, turning the region into a series of client Arab kingdoms. South Persia became another client state of the British Empire.
The Scramble for Africa, the Great War, Europe’s unification, the post-war settlement, and South Africa’s independence left the EU in control of the vast majority of the African continent. European colonies included the Maghreb; most of West Africa except US-aligned Liberia and the British colonies of Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone; the Congo basin in Central Africa; Angola, Mozambique, and Northern Rhodesia in Southern Africa; and most of East Africa except British Kenya and Uganda. The British also kept control of Egypt and Sudan as a protectorate.
The Spanish-American War drove the Americans to annex Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines. Border clashes between the USA and Mexican revolutionaries during the Mexican revolution caused an American intervention and annexation of Northern Mexico (Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Neuvo Leon, Tamaulipas, Sinaloa, Durango, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosi). US involvement in the Banana Wars led to American annexation of the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua and building of the Nicaragua Canal. Soon after the Americans accomplished pacification of the Philippines, they set up the area as a Commonwealth (associated state) of the USA. They made no commitment for an eventual independence of the Philippines. Mexico, Haiti, and the Central American republics became client states of the USA, although beset by serious political instability. The attempts to build another trans-oceanic canal in Panama failed and the area stayed part of Colombia.
Territorial expansion and political changes in Europe drove the Americans to avoid setting any limitation to European immigration. On the other hand, the economic boom in the EU and vibrant industrialization of Southern and Eastern Europe made immigration from those regions less plentiful than it would otherwise have been, with the notable exception of those refugees from the Soviet bloc that did not went to the EU.
In East Asia, modernization of Japan and decline up to revolutionary collapse of Qing China took place much as usual. The First Sino-Japanese War, the Russo-Japanese War, the Great War, Japanese intervention in Siberia, and Russo-Japanese invasion of Manchuria more or less merged in a single event sequence. Its outcome included a Japanese decisive success and Japan’s annexation of Sakhalin, Korea, Outer and Inner Manchuria, Taiwan, and Hainan. The Great War and the rise of Communism distracted and concerned the other great powers enough to tolerate this amount of Japanese expansionism. The war and revolutionary turmoil weakened Russia and China enough to force a reluctant acceptance of this outcome.
After they acquired their overseas territories, the Japanese expelled most of their Han and Russian inhabitants (which were not that numerous yet in this period), fearing their disloyalty. Early acquisition of Korea enabled its successful political and cultural assimilation in the Japanese Empire since it happened before the Korean kingdom had done any native attempt at modernization. Much as it happened in Japan, many Koreans hence came to appreciate Japanese rule as a bringer of progress and development. Therefore, they accepted it in exchange for modernization, enfranchisement, and respect of their cultural heritage.
Pretty much the same relationship developed between the empire and the natives of Taiwan, Hainan, and Manchuria after the expulsion of the Han and the Russians. Over time, Japan encouraged a sizable number of Japanese and Koreans to settle in the overseas territories, especially low-populated Greater Manchuria and Sakhalin. The ongoing drive to modernize Japan combined with early acquisition of Korea motivated the Japanese reformers to enact a linguistic reform of the Japanese and Korean languages to accomplish their merger and to replace their writing systems with Latin script. Much like what happened in Europe with Ido, growing linguistic cohesion thanks to success of Japanese-Korean helped stabilize and entrench the political unity and stability of the Japanese Empire for the foreseeable future.
Settlement of Greater Manchuria and Sakhalin enabled use of their abundant natural resources, including the Manchurian oilfields, to fuel ongoing industrialization of Japan and Korea. Much like it happened with Europe and its African colonies, this process made the Japanese Empire less dependent on foreign trade to support its economy but also more determined to defend their overseas territories from Soviet or Chinese threats.
Revolutionary collapse of the Qing dynasty plunged China into a period of warlord chaos. It gradually got simplified into a threefold division between reformist monarchists that held most of the North, nationalist republicans that held most of the South, and the strongest warlords. Over time, the situation further evolved into a dual division as the other factions defeated or coopted the remaining warlords, and a Soviet-sponsored Communist uprising took over the North. In the end, a seemingly stable division of China proper arose between Communist North China and Nationalist South China. The USSR annexed Xinjiang and Outer-Inner Mongolia, and Tibet became a British protectorate.