A Continued Cold War

forcon
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A Continued Cold War Oct 3, 2019 19:28:44 GMT

Quote

Post by forcon on Oct 3, 2019 19:28:44 GMT

Oct 2, 2019 19:46:30 GMT James G said:

Oct 2, 2019 15:56:55 GMT stevep said:

I think the basic issue is that with the Soviets pushed back to 'Russian' territory they have lost a hell of a lot of both ground and population, along with production capacity and the like. Much of this has not just been lost but also is now boosting NATO's defence. As such pre-1990 and the collapse of the WP it was possible for the WP forces to overrun most of western Europe, possibly forcing France into neutrality and making it very difficult for NATO to regain that lost ground. However now how realistic is it for the rump USSR to actually wage and 'win' a largely conventional war against the bulk of N America and Europe? Can't see any great possibility they will get anywhere near the Rhine and likely probably not far into Germany or the Czech Republic if at all. That means that the bulk of European population and industrial resources will stay outside their control so NATO only has to moblise and keep on fighting and their almost certain to win. As such I can't really see the basis for a realistic Soviet military attack on NATO.

I agree. They'd be stuffed as an offensive military force that far back in Eastern Europe.
forcon , what is the situation with Bulgaria? IIRC, the post-1989 government in Bulgaria was just the old guard wearing new clothes: a sort of Putinism-before-it-was-Putinism. Has the USSR got an ally in Sofia? Or are they any allies of significance elsewhere in the world?

Oct 2, 2019 15:56:55 GMT stevep said:

I think the basic issue is that with the Soviets pushed back to 'Russian' territory they have lost a hell of a lot of both ground and population, along with production capacity and the like. Much of this has not just been lost but also is now boosting NATO's defence. As such pre-1990 and the collapse of the WP it was possible for the WP forces to overrun most of western Europe, possibly forcing France into neutrality and making it very difficult for NATO to regain that lost ground. However now how realistic is it for the rump USSR to actually wage and 'win' a largely conventional war against the bulk of N America and Europe? Can't see any great possibility they will get anywhere near the Rhine and likely probably not far into Germany or the Czech Republic if at all. That means that the bulk of European population and industrial resources will stay outside their control so NATO only has to moblise and keep on fighting and their almost certain to win. As such I can't really see the basis for a realistic Soviet military attack on NATO.

Any Soviet attack would be launched to preempt a NATO offensive, or a percieved NATO offensive. Here is the Soviet ORBAT for the West:

Western Military District

Kola TVD
-61st Guards Naval Infantry Brigade
-98th Guards Airborne Division
9th Army
-25th Motorised Rifle Division
-80th Arctic Motorised Rifle Division
-200th Motorised Rifle Division

Moscow TVD

19th Tank Army
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade
-Separate Airmobile Brigade

41st Army
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Armoured Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade

Ukraine TVD

2nd Guards Tank Army
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade

4th Guards Tank Army
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade
-Separate Motorised Rifle Regiment

8th Guards Army
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade
-Separate Armoured Brigade
-Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade

12th Army
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade

Belarus TVD

1st Guards Tank Army
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Motorised Rifle Regiment

3rd Shock Army
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade
-Separate Airmobile Brigade

20th Guards Army
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Armoured Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade
-Separate Airmobile Brigade

28th Army
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Armoured Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade

Leningrad & Baltic TVD

6th Combined Arms Army
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade

11th Army Corps
-Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade
-Separate Motorised Rifle Regiment
-76th Guards Airborne Division
-336th Naval Infantry Brigade

lordroel
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A Continued Cold War Oct 3, 2019 19:32:26 GMT

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Post by lordroel on Oct 3, 2019 19:32:26 GMT

Oct 3, 2019 19:28:44 GMT forcon said:

Oct 2, 2019 19:46:30 GMT James G said:

I agree. They'd be stuffed as an offensive military force that far back in Eastern Europe.
forcon , what is the situation with Bulgaria? IIRC, the post-1989 government in Bulgaria was just the old guard wearing new clothes: a sort of Putinism-before-it-was-Putinism. Has the USSR got an ally in Sofia? Or are they any allies of significance elsewhere in the world?

Oct 2, 2019 15:56:55 GMT stevep said:

I think the basic issue is that with the Soviets pushed back to 'Russian' territory they have lost a hell of a lot of both ground and population, along with production capacity and the like. Much of this has not just been lost but also is now boosting NATO's defence. As such pre-1990 and the collapse of the WP it was possible for the WP forces to overrun most of western Europe, possibly forcing France into neutrality and making it very difficult for NATO to regain that lost ground. However now how realistic is it for the rump USSR to actually wage and 'win' a largely conventional war against the bulk of N America and Europe? Can't see any great possibility they will get anywhere near the Rhine and likely probably not far into Germany or the Czech Republic if at all. That means that the bulk of European population and industrial resources will stay outside their control so NATO only has to moblise and keep on fighting and their almost certain to win. As such I can't really see the basis for a realistic Soviet military attack on NATO.

Any Soviet attack would be launched to preempt a NATO offensive, or a percieved NATO offensive. Here is the Soviet ORBAT for the West:

Western Military District

Kola TVD
-61st Guards Naval Infantry Brigade
-98th Guards Airborne Division
9th Army
-25th Motorised Rifle Division
-80th Arctic Motorised Rifle Division
-200th Motorised Rifle Division

Moscow TVD

19th Tank Army
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade
-Separate Airmobile Brigade

41st Army
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Armoured Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade

Ukraine TVD

2nd Guards Tank Army
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade

4th Guards Tank Army
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade
-Separate Motorised Rifle Regiment

8th Guards Army
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade
-Separate Armoured Brigade
-Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade

12th Army
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade

Belarus TVD

1st Guards Tank Army
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Motorised Rifle Regiment

3rd Shock Army
-Armoured Division
-Armoured Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade
-Separate Airmobile Brigade

20th Guards Army
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Armoured Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade
-Separate Airmobile Brigade

28th Army
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Armoured Division
-Separate Armoured Brigade

Leningrad & Baltic TVD

6th Combined Arms Army
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Motorised Rifle Division
-Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade

11th Army Corps
-Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade
-Separate Motorised Rifle Regiment
-76th Guards Airborne Division
-336th Naval Infantry Brigade

How many divisions does it have in Soviet occupied Estonia.

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stevep
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A Continued Cold War Oct 4, 2019 10:07:31 GMT

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Post by stevep on Oct 4, 2019 10:07:31 GMT

Forcon

Good orbat. I make it about 31 divisions and 17 brigades, which is a big drop on their 1980 levels but then could be just the 1st echelon units before reserves are moblised. Depends on the corresponding NATO forces both prepared and reserves.

Agree that might be the trigger for a big shooting clash, if the Soviet's over-reacted to something and thought they were going to be attacked, although they should realise that's not going to be the case given the natural Soviet response might be to go nuclear. Basically have the same sort of trip-wire strategy that NATO had for a while.

One other option might be that the Soviets take military action against some 3rd party not formally part of NATO which cases a major rise in tension and public pressure for the west to intervene. Possibly say the Soviets start to pressurise Finland or one of the Baltic states which has a democratic government. Then the Soviets decide to hit before NATO can decide to intervene.

Steve

lordroel
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A Continued Cold War Oct 4, 2019 10:10:30 GMT

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Post by lordroel on Oct 4, 2019 10:10:30 GMT

Oct 4, 2019 10:07:31 GMT stevep said:

Forcon

Good orbat. I make it about 31 divisions and 17 brigades, which is a big drop on their 1980 levels but then could be just the 1st echelon units before reserves are moblised. Depends on the corresponding NATO forces both prepared and reserves.

Agree that might be the trigger for a big shooting clash, if the Soviet's over-reacted to something and thought they were going to be attacked, although they should realise that's not going to be the case given the natural Soviet response might be to go nuclear. Basically have the same sort of trip-wire strategy that NATO had for a while.

One other option might be that the Soviets take military action against some 3rd party not formally part of NATO which cases a major rise in tension and public pressure for the west to intervene. Possibly say the Soviets start to pressurise Finland or one of the Baltic states which has a democratic government. Then the Soviets decide to hit before NATO can decide to intervene.

Steve

That begs the question, does Finland still do the Finlandization ore have they become bolder and do it less.

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Post by forcon on Oct 3, 2019 19:28:44 GMT

Post by lordroel on Oct 3, 2019 19:32:26 GMT

Post by stevep on Oct 4, 2019 10:07:31 GMT

Post by lordroel on Oct 4, 2019 10:10:30 GMT