Real time Discusion thread

In Iceland, The Costal Command of the RAF establishes an air base to help in convoy protection. At this stage there are only outdated Fairey Battle aircraft situated there, but this base will soon expand. RAF Coastal Command begins anti-U-boat patrols from Iceland, using the Fairey Battle aircraft.

RAF Coastal Command establishes its first air base to protect the sea lanes. This is becoming urgent because the U-boats operating out of French ports now can reach out into the middle of the Atlantic. The first patrols use obsolete Fairey Battles. The patrols are only as good as the aircraft used, and the increasing range of operation of RAF (and later USAAF) aircraft is destined to have a major influence on the Battle of the Atlantic.

Hptm. Wilhelm Balthasar of Stab III./JG 3 destroyed his twenty-fourth Allied aircraft southeast of London before being severely wounded. He made it back to England but was out of war operations until February 1941.

However, as it stands in early September, if Sea Lion is ever to be attempted, it should be done immediately. The imminent arrival of the 50 destroyers from the United States (see below) would turn the naval equation solidly and permanently against the Germans, but those ships will take time to arrive. Having Luftwaffe bases established on both sides of the Channel before their arrival would largely nullify their local impact.

Hitler also reaches a decision on Operation Sea Lion based on this discussion, or at least flowing from the decision announced at it. Operation Sea Lion is on. Hitler's orders provide that the Wehrmacht will be given 10-days lead time before the invasion. The new earliest date for Operation Sea Lion landings now is moved from 15 September to 21 September (S-Day), with the ships to sail on 20 September.

The plan now (it has gone through numerous revisions) is to land two airborne divisions first, followed by nine other divisions. Included will be 250 panzers. The 16th Army will land four divisions at Folkestone, while 9th Army will and 2 divisions at Eastbourne and 3 divisions at Brighton. They would face a dozen British divisions of varying states of readiness. The UK has an inventory of roughly 350 Valentine and Matilda tanks (Prime Minister Churchill having just sent off several shiploads to the Middle East) and 500 antitank weapons - a strong, but not overwhelming, defensive force. The 9 picked Wehrmacht divisions against the assorted British divisions would be a fair fight.

With the benefit of omniscience derived from hindsight, knowing the true state of affairs on both sides as of 3 September 1940, the decision to invade England probably already is too late. The British military has recovered, strengthened its defenses, and fought the Luftwaffe to a standstill. RAF Fighter Command is bowed but not broken; even after large recent losses, it has 600-700 fighters ready to defend the beaches - not the 100-350 believed by the Luftwaffe. The Royal Navy remains amply able to defend the Channel. More importantly, the British (via Churchill's rapport with Roosevelt) have solidified their arrangements with the Americans and made them virtual allies in the war. An invasion in July 1940, with a maximum Luftwaffe effort to establish temporary local air superiority rather than frittering away strength on other attacks, would have made infinitely more sense despite the obvious risks.

However, as it stands in early September, if Sea Lion is ever to be attempted, it should be done immediately. The imminent arrival of the 50 destroyers from the United States (see below) would turn the naval equation solidly and permanently against the Germans, but those ships will take time to arrive. Having Luftwaffe bases established on both sides of the Channel before their arrival would largely nullify their local impact.

It is now or never for the Wehrmacht in terms of defeating England by frontal assault (as opposed to either economic strangulation at sea or a peripheral strategy in the Mediterranean, neither of which have worked against the British previously). At least making the effort with a reasonable possibility of success would be worth any number of losses. Leaving the British undefeated at your back - especially if you have some half-cocked notions of starting new wars in the East - is never a winning proposition. The British must be finished off once and for all, and any price is worth paying once they have their hands around your neck. Peace terms must be slapped down on the throne at Buckingham Palace quickly or the British will never go away and ultimately find a way to beat you: there is 300 years of history to prove that, going back to Philip II. Napoleon would nod in agreement.

Operation Sea Lion is a huge gamble, and Hitler is the biggest military gambler of the millennium. The attempt seems worthwhile - but right away, not in 1941. Time is the Wehrmacht's enemy. This decision is perhaps the biggest of the war.