lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 12, 2019 16:27:08 GMT
'No Banking Panic Of 1907'. Never heard of this Banking Panic Of 1907 until you mentioned it Zyobot.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Dec 14, 2019 22:23:00 GMT
‘John Kerry Wins In 2004. How Does The 2008 Election Look?’. Republican Blowout, George Allen and J.C. Watts ticket I'd imagine. 'No Immigration Act of 1965'. The White population of the U.S. would still be around 80%, I'd imagine. Massive, massive effects. No construction of the modern welfare state in the U.S. for example and likely an earlier end to the Solid South. Without the banking collapses in Europe, no Nazism in Germany and so you likely get a Proto-EU formed by the Berlin-Paris axis.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 15, 2019 11:16:02 GMT
Massive, massive effects. No construction of the modern welfare state in the U.S. for example and likely an earlier end to the Solid South. Without the banking collapses in Europe, no Nazism in Germany and so you likely get a Proto-EU formed by the Berlin-Paris axis.
Agree with most but while you probably avoid the Nazis you will still have a lot of German revanchment feeling and French [and others] fearing that. About the only issue that might bring the two together like OTL would be a major move by Stalin's successor [whoever that is] to dominate Europe and assuming that is defeated it would need to be a limited defeat with a still continuing Soviet threat to really bring the two together I suspect.
As you say the US would be markedly poorer socially and very vulnerable to the next serious downturn. Although a lot would depend on how the Great Depression was avoided.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 15, 2019 11:35:06 GMT
Massive, massive effects. No construction of the modern welfare state in the U.S. for example and likely an earlier end to the Solid South. Without the banking collapses in Europe, no Nazism in Germany and so you likely get a Proto-EU formed by the Berlin-Paris axis. Agree with most but while you probably avoid the Nazis you will still have a lot of German revanchment feeling and French [and others] fearing that. About the only issue that might bring the two together like OTL would be a major move by Stalin's successor [whoever that is] to dominate Europe and assuming that is defeated it would need to be a limited defeat with a still continuing Soviet threat to really bring the two together I suspect. As you say the US would be markedly poorer socially and very vulnerable to the next serious downturn. Although a lot would depend on how the Great Depression was avoided.
Would no Great Depression mean also no FDR as president.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 15, 2019 12:28:56 GMT
Agree with most but while you probably avoid the Nazis you will still have a lot of German revanchment feeling and French [and others] fearing that. About the only issue that might bring the two together like OTL would be a major move by Stalin's successor [whoever that is] to dominate Europe and assuming that is defeated it would need to be a limited defeat with a still continuing Soviet threat to really bring the two together I suspect. As you say the US would be markedly poorer socially and very vulnerable to the next serious downturn. Although a lot would depend on how the Great Depression was avoided.
Would no Great Depression mean also no FDR as president.
Very likely, although it would depend on the exact butterflies. If no depression then the drive for serious economic reform is going to be markedly less, at least in the short term and any such move is going to be by fringe/extreme figures like Huey Long. Roosevelt might still be a democratic candidate at some point but political necessity is likely to mean more conservative policies. If elected he's unlikely to be the iconic figure of OTL.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 15, 2019 12:32:14 GMT
Would no Great Depression mean also no FDR as president. Very likely, although it would depend on the exact butterflies. If no depression then the drive for serious economic reform is going to be markedly less, at least in the short term and any such move is going to be by fringe/extreme figures like Huey Long. Roosevelt might still be a democratic candidate at some point but political necessity is likely to mean more conservative policies. If elected he's unlikely to be the iconic figure of OTL.
No Great Depression means no FDR as president which means No lend lease to the United Kingdom during the early years of World War Ii which result in a very different outcome of World War II.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Dec 15, 2019 20:21:54 GMT
'Hillary Clinton Wins In 2008 Election'.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 15, 2019 22:23:04 GMT
Very likely, although it would depend on the exact butterflies. If no depression then the drive for serious economic reform is going to be markedly less, at least in the short term and any such move is going to be by fringe/extreme figures like Huey Long. Roosevelt might still be a democratic candidate at some point but political necessity is likely to mean more conservative policies. If elected he's unlikely to be the iconic figure of OTL.
No Great Depression means no FDR as president which means No lend lease to the United Kingdom during the early years of World War Ii which result in a very different outcome of World War II.
Ah but no great depression probably means no WWII, or at least as we know it. Without the mass unemployment its unlikely that the Nazis will get anywhere near power. Plus without the depression impacting on world trade the world is going to be massively different.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Dec 15, 2019 23:14:45 GMT
Massive, massive effects. No construction of the modern welfare state in the U.S. for example and likely an earlier end to the Solid South. Without the banking collapses in Europe, no Nazism in Germany and so you likely get a Proto-EU formed by the Berlin-Paris axis.
Agree with most but while you probably avoid the Nazis you will still have a lot of German revanchment feeling and French [and others] fearing that. About the only issue that might bring the two together like OTL would be a major move by Stalin's successor [whoever that is] to dominate Europe and assuming that is defeated it would need to be a limited defeat with a still continuing Soviet threat to really bring the two together I suspect.
As you say the US would be markedly poorer socially and very vulnerable to the next serious downturn. Although a lot would depend on how the Great Depression was avoided.
Probably not, Germany and France were taking the steps for a Proto-EU until the Great Depression wrecked it.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 16, 2019 4:55:01 GMT
Agree with most but while you probably avoid the Nazis you will still have a lot of German revanchment feeling and French [and others] fearing that. About the only issue that might bring the two together like OTL would be a major move by Stalin's successor [whoever that is] to dominate Europe and assuming that is defeated it would need to be a limited defeat with a still continuing Soviet threat to really bring the two together I suspect. As you say the US would be markedly poorer socially and very vulnerable to the next serious downturn. Although a lot would depend on how the Great Depression was avoided.
Probably not, Germany and France were taking the steps for a Proto-EU until the Great Depression wrecked it. In the 1930s, Whit Hitler in power in Germany, that is something i think is hard to believe.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 16, 2019 15:29:55 GMT
Probably not, Germany and France were taking the steps for a Proto-EU until the Great Depression wrecked it. In the 1930s, Whit Hitler in power in Germany, that is something i think is hard to believe.
I've never heard of this proto-EU although there were attempts at reducing tension which might have gone further if not for the depression boosting autocracy and extremism so much. However the idea of a political union which intends to abolish the member states as suggested by the current EU and the suggestions of some of the EEC's founders I think would be a definite no go prior to WWII. Its unlikely enough as it is now.
The depression started in 1929 so without it and the serious problems it caused in Germany and elsewhere its pretty unlikely that Hitler and the Nazis would come anywhere near political power. Hence he's not relevant to those pre-depression discussions epichistory mentioned.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Dec 17, 2019 6:46:44 GMT
Probably not, Germany and France were taking the steps for a Proto-EU until the Great Depression wrecked it. In the 1930s, Whit Hitler in power in Germany, that is something i think is hard to believe. Before the Depression hit, so before Hitler.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Dec 17, 2019 7:10:03 GMT
In the 1930s, Whit Hitler in power in Germany, that is something i think is hard to believe.
I've never heard of this proto-EU although there were attempts at reducing tension which might have gone further if not for the depression boosting autocracy and extremism so much. However the idea of a political union which intends to abolish the member states as suggested by the current EU and the suggestions of some of the EEC's founders I think would be a definite no go prior to WWII. Its unlikely enough as it is now.
The depression started in 1929 so without it and the serious problems it caused in Germany and elsewhere its pretty unlikely that Hitler and the Nazis would come anywhere near political power. Hence he's not relevant to those pre-depression discussions epichistory mentioned.
The Wages of Destruction, by Adam Tooze covers this in its initial chapter:
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 17, 2019 11:13:13 GMT
I've never heard of this proto-EU although there were attempts at reducing tension which might have gone further if not for the depression boosting autocracy and extremism so much. However the idea of a political union which intends to abolish the member states as suggested by the current EU and the suggestions of some of the EEC's founders I think would be a definite no go prior to WWII. Its unlikely enough as it is now.
The depression started in 1929 so without it and the serious problems it caused in Germany and elsewhere its pretty unlikely that Hitler and the Nazis would come anywhere near political power. Hence he's not relevant to those pre-depression discussions epichistory mentioned.
The Wages of Destruction, by Adam Tooze covers this in its initial chapter:
Thanks. Interesting. Its still an aspiration and was there much sympathy for the idea from Paris, which had its own problems in the 20's and 30's. Possibly if the German attitude from the mid-late 20's had continued without the depression it might have developed into better relations with France although that wouldn't resolve other German nationalistic desires and I can't see France accepting the loss of Alsace- Lorraine or even allowing a plebiscite there.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Dec 19, 2019 2:19:01 GMT
'Republican California Into 21st Century'.
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