lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 12, 2019 16:22:22 GMT
Well the Germans could win, but i have found not so far any evidence of whether the US hand landed troops already, because they only way for the Germans to remove those troops is to send their own from Germany, and as the United Kingdom as it always does, will close the Suez Canal for any Waring party, that means a long trip around Africa in order to reach the Philippines. If the Americans have landed troops and/or help the pro-independence leaders return to the islands German reinforcements would be necessary I suspect. Which would have a long way to go. As you say it would depend on how quickly the US landed forces compared with how soon Germany moves against them.
While they might do it on a case by case basis I'm not sure if Britain is required or would actually close the canal to a reinforcement mission. IIRC the prime reason the Russia Baltic fleet had to go the long way around in 1905 was because after the attack on the Dogger Bank trawlers public opinion was such that the the government decided to close the canal to the Russian fleet. Which rather implies that it wasn't an automatic action. Given the level of trade between Britain and the US and other links Britain might decide to do so anyway but I'm not certain it would be an automatic move, especially since Wilhelm II hadn't yet really got under the British skin or started his massive fleet expansion. However even then it could be difficult. The Russians gained some assistance from France who was friendly to them. Germany has its E Africa colony and I think already part of New Guinea but nothing else in between and the latter probably doesn't have a lot of facilities. I suspect an outright military mission would be blocked from all but friendly ports so it could be quite a struggle for Germany to get anything there. Plus since they have already ditched the alliance with Russia and France is distinctly unfriendly they have to consider what happens if war was to break out with either of those powers, who have more powerful bases and fleets in E Asia. In comparison the Pacific is large but the US is across the other side and already has de-facto control of Hawaii, although I don't think they have anything closer. Also they could probably send other ships either from the Pacific coast or if necessarily around Cape Horn, both militarily and carrying troops. Whereas the Germans can't afford to send too much from Europe.
Hence while its possible Germany could win a naval victory and especially if they acted quickly before US troops were landed that could significantly impact on the US ability in the short term to overrun the Philippines. However if the US was determined for a longer conflict it would have a good chance of winning in the end.
Could we use the German reaction to the Boxer Rebellion as a example, this is a nice read: Germany and the Boxer Uprising in China, look at page 136. Thus checking page 143, this could be send to the Philiphies: Kaiser Wilhelm II ordered to organize a brigade 7,000 men and composed of volunteers. Finally, German expeditionary corps consisted of six infantry regiments, one cavalry regiment, one artillery regiment, The expeditionary corps consisted from about 520 officers and 11,000 soldiers.Would Germany send 1 ore 2 of their Brandenburg-class battleships along ore might they go to the Caribbean. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 12, 2019 18:24:59 GMT
Lordroel Won't answer your post at the moment. Been viewing some Youtube naval videos and currently in the early stages of one, USS Olympia, on the Olympia which you might find interesting. By a guy named Drachinfel who has produced quite a number of ones on naval subjects and really seems to know his stuff. Looking intere3sting and he seems to rate the ship quite highly "pint sized battleship in a cruiser skin". Might find it of interest but will reply when I've finished it.
Steve
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 12, 2019 19:02:01 GMT
If the Americans have landed troops and/or help the pro-independence leaders return to the islands German reinforcements would be necessary I suspect. Which would have a long way to go. As you say it would depend on how quickly the US landed forces compared with how soon Germany moves against them.
While they might do it on a case by case basis I'm not sure if Britain is required or would actually close the canal to a reinforcement mission. IIRC the prime reason the Russia Baltic fleet had to go the long way around in 1905 was because after the attack on the Dogger Bank trawlers public opinion was such that the the government decided to close the canal to the Russian fleet. Which rather implies that it wasn't an automatic action. Given the level of trade between Britain and the US and other links Britain might decide to do so anyway but I'm not certain it would be an automatic move, especially since Wilhelm II hadn't yet really got under the British skin or started his massive fleet expansion. However even then it could be difficult. The Russians gained some assistance from France who was friendly to them. Germany has its E Africa colony and I think already part of New Guinea but nothing else in between and the latter probably doesn't have a lot of facilities. I suspect an outright military mission would be blocked from all but friendly ports so it could be quite a struggle for Germany to get anything there. Plus since they have already ditched the alliance with Russia and France is distinctly unfriendly they have to consider what happens if war was to break out with either of those powers, who have more powerful bases and fleets in E Asia. In comparison the Pacific is large but the US is across the other side and already has de-facto control of Hawaii, although I don't think they have anything closer. Also they could probably send other ships either from the Pacific coast or if necessarily around Cape Horn, both militarily and carrying troops. Whereas the Germans can't afford to send too much from Europe.
Hence while its possible Germany could win a naval victory and especially if they acted quickly before US troops were landed that could significantly impact on the US ability in the short term to overrun the Philippines. However if the US was determined for a longer conflict it would have a good chance of winning in the end.
Could we use the German reaction to the Boxer Rebellion as a example, this is a nice read: Germany and the Boxer Uprising in China, look at page 136. Thus checking page 143, this could be send to the Philiphies: Kaiser Wilhelm II ordered to organize a brigade 7,000 men and composed of volunteers. Finally, German expeditionary corps consisted of six infantry regiments, one cavalry regiment, one artillery regiment, The expeditionary corps consisted from about 520 officers and 11,000 soldiers.Would Germany send 1 ore 2 of their Brandenburg-class battleships along ore might they go to the Caribbean. Lordroel Further on the Olympia video he seems to like the design and it does seem powerful, especially for the time. Including a good amount of armour compared to most other protected cruisers. Plus being of a newer type of armour it was qualitatively better than many other cruisers being built at the time.
A good bit about what appears to be her only combat experience, at Manila Bay. About the 13th minute there is some commentary on the poor shooting of the US fleet, with only ~1% hit rates, although of course still superior to that of the much weaker Spanish force. Suggestion is that this was probably a problem for most fleets at the time with the rapid development of guns having left targeting doctrine some way behind so the Germans may be no better or possibly even worse.
On the other point yes the Germans could probably organise such a force although how quickly and how effectively they could manage the logistics of getting it there in fighting order before any US reinforcements I don't know. One other option is what did they have at Tsingtao at this time as they might be able to get some forces from there, albeit probably quite small, fairly rapidly. The article on the Siege_of_Tsingtao, in 1914 mentions some 3,600 German troops here but also that Germany boosted the defences after the Boxer Uprising so it was probably somewhat smaller in 1898, especially as it was only literally established on the 6th March 1898.
The video did mention that Olympia later supported the landing of US troops near Manila which may suggest that those didn't sail with the fleet and arrived later. Which probably fits with the scenario as the US fleet sailed quickly from China as soon as war was declared so probably didn't have time for troops to be mobilised and sent across from the US. Hence the Germans if war came quickly and they defeated Dewey's force before US land forces could be landed it would depend on who could get forces there 1st, including ships to escort them. Plus not sure of the strength of the Spanish garrison which would also presumably play a role.
Not sure if the Germans would risk one/two of their 1st pre-dreads so far from home but if they did and they could get support it might be better leading reinforcements to the Philippines as Cuba is likely to attract the attention of the bulk of USN and so close to the US trying to fight them there would seem an unwise move.
Steve
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 12, 2019 20:53:06 GMT
Could we use the German reaction to the Boxer Rebellion as a example, this is a nice read: Germany and the Boxer Uprising in China, look at page 136. Thus checking page 143, this could be send to the Philiphies: Kaiser Wilhelm II ordered to organize a brigade 7,000 men and composed of volunteers. Finally, German expeditionary corps consisted of six infantry regiments, one cavalry regiment, one artillery regiment, The expeditionary corps consisted from about 520 officers and 11,000 soldiers.Would Germany send 1 ore 2 of their Brandenburg-class battleships along ore might they go to the Caribbean. Lordroel Further on the Olympia video he seems to like the design and it does seem powerful, especially for the time. Including a good amount of armour compared to most other protected cruisers. Plus being of a newer type of armour it was qualitatively better than many other cruisers being built at the time.
A good bit about what appears to be her only combat experience, at Manila Bay. About the 13th minute there is some commentary on the poor shooting of the US fleet, with only ~1% hit rates, although of course still superior to that of the much weaker Spanish force. Suggestion is that this was probably a problem for most fleets at the time with the rapid development of guns having left targeting doctrine some way behind so the Germans may be no better or possibly even worse. On the other point yes the Germans could probably organise such a force although how quickly and how effectively they could manage the logistics of getting it there in fighting order before any US reinforcements I don't know. One other option is what did they have at Tsingtao at this time as they might be able to get some forces from there, albeit probably quite small, fairly rapidly. The article on the Siege_of_Tsingtao, in 1914 mentions some 3,600 German troops here but also that Germany boosted the defences after the Boxer Uprising so it was probably somewhat smaller in 1898, especially as it was only literally established on the 6th March 1898. The video did mention that Olympia later supported the landing of US troops near Manila which may suggest that those didn't sail with the fleet and arrived later. Which probably fits with the scenario as the US fleet sailed quickly from China as soon as war was declared so probably didn't have time for troops to be mobilised and sent across from the US. Hence the Germans if war came quickly and they defeated Dewey's force before US land forces could be landed it would depend on who could get forces there 1st, including ships to escort them. Plus not sure of the strength of the Spanish garrison which would also presumably play a role. Not sure if the Germans would risk one/two of their 1st pre-dreads so far from home but if they did and they could get support it might be better leading reinforcements to the Philippines as Cuba is likely to attract the attention of the bulk of USN and so close to the US trying to fight them there would seem an unwise move. Steve
Thanks for the link stevep, interesting to watch. |
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dayton3
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Post by dayton3 on Oct 21, 2019 13:35:42 GMT
I've read scenarios for this potential conflict before. Chances are it would've prompted the British to send in their fleet to assist the U.S. which of course would've resulted in a pretty crushing German defeat. Basically the "special relationship" begins a couple of decades earlier with the British being the senior partner instead of the U.S. At least for a time.
On the upside, probably no World War One and all the results from that.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 21, 2019 14:22:15 GMT
I've read scenarios for this potential conflict before. Chances are it would've prompted the British to send in their fleet to assist the U.S. which of course would've resulted in a pretty crushing German defeat. Basically the "special relationship" begins a couple of decades earlier with the British being the senior partner instead of the U.S. At least for a time. On the upside, probably no World War One and all the results from that. Even with if Germany was defeated, it would only be a naval defeat and not a land defeat, thus the Great War can still happen, but with the United States being more anti-Germany from the start. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 21, 2019 18:11:38 GMT
I've read scenarios for this potential conflict before. Chances are it would've prompted the British to send in their fleet to assist the U.S. which of course would've resulted in a pretty crushing German defeat. Basically the "special relationship" begins a couple of decades earlier with the British being the senior partner instead of the U.S. At least for a time. On the upside, probably no World War One and all the results from that.
I'm not sure about this as relations with Germany were still fairly good. Not as good as the US perhaps but fairly decent. Victoria was still alive and Wilhelm didn't seem to engage in too much anti-British rhetoric until after her death and Tirpitz hadn't started his naval challenge to the RN. France and Russia were far more worrying to the UK at this point.
Britain might think the German move rash and they definitely wouldn't support it but unless Germany really did something to upset Britain the RN is unlikely to aid the US militarily.
The people who might get involved could be France and Russia if they think Germany is distracted enough, although I doubt Germany would send enough army units anywhere out of Europe to make that likely.
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