gillan1220
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I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
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Post by gillan1220 on Jun 4, 2019 7:16:16 GMT
My guess it would be America
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jun 4, 2019 20:10:05 GMT
My guess it would be America What makes America especially primed to reach Mars first, do you think? |
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dayton3
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Post by dayton3 on Oct 9, 2019 0:22:03 GMT
United States. China will lose a major war and be in no position to do so within a couple of decades.
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dayton3
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Post by dayton3 on Dec 13, 2019 19:51:41 GMT
Any mission to Mars will be a suicide mission, so....Japan? ISIL? . It goes without saying that Japan has so much of a better shot at conducting the first manned mission to Mars, though how it compares to other nations like China, Russia and the United States in this arena, I can't say. Why would a mission to Mars be a suicide mission? It doesn't even require a single breakthrough technology wise. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 13, 2019 20:09:40 GMT
Definitely not ISIL. It goes without saying that Japan has so much of a better shot at conducting the first manned mission to Mars, though how it compares to other nations like China, Russia and the United States in this arena, I can't say. Why would a mission to Mars be a suicide mission? It doesn't even require a single breakthrough technology wise. There is a lot that could go wrong on a trip to Mars, just look on what happen to Apollo 13, and it was closer to Earth. |
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dayton3
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Post by dayton3 on Dec 15, 2019 14:49:09 GMT
Why would a mission to Mars be a suicide mission? It doesn't even require a single breakthrough technology wise. There is a lot that could go wrong on a trip to Mars, just look on what happen to Apollo 13, and it was closer to Earth. There is a lot that could go wrong on a trip to Mars, just look on what happen to Apollo 13, and it was closer to Earth. A lot could go wrong on any mission into space but most of them are successful. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 15, 2019 14:58:15 GMT
There is a lot that could go wrong on a trip to Mars, just look on what happen to Apollo 13, and it was closer to Earth. There is a lot that could go wrong on a trip to Mars, just look on what happen to Apollo 13, and it was closer to Earth. A lot could go wrong on any mission into space but most of them are successful. For now, but as we start to travel more away from Earth, the risk also will be higher. |
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dayton3
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Post by dayton3 on Dec 16, 2019 20:16:45 GMT
A lot could go wrong on any mission into space but most of them are successful. For now, but as we start to travel more away from Earth, the risk also will be higher. Distance has little impact on risk one way or the other. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 17, 2019 11:03:31 GMT
For now, but as we start to travel more away from Earth, the risk also will be higher. Distance has little impact on risk one way or the other.
Not distance in itself so much but the duration of the mission and the fact their so far from possible aid means that a lot more things can go wrong. For instance with the Apollo missions the vessels had to function for about 10 days whereas now far more complex ships, including tasks such as air recycling, food production and the like and the need for protection against solar storms for at least a couple of years. A single small break-down that seems minor at 1st can have knock on effects that accumulate over the mission and prove fatal.
Also landing on Mars and getting back off again is going to be more difficult as its larger [hence a deeper gravity well] and also has an atmosphere, which can be violent at times. What if there's a major dust storm paralyzing action during the probably narrow window that the ground mission is due to take off and link up with the orbiter for the trip back to Earth to start?
Basically if there's a 1% chance of any one of 5-6 components going wrong then your probably going to be OK. If there are dozens, let alone hundreds of components [including factors totally outside the astronauts control] you may need say something like a 0.01% chance of error for each component which is going to be a lot more difficult.
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dayton3
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Post by dayton3 on Dec 23, 2019 2:31:57 GMT
Distance has little impact on risk one way or the other.
What if there's a major dust storm paralyzing action during the probably narrow window that the ground mission is due to take off and link up with the orbiter for the trip back to Earth to start?
Who cares? Mars atmosphere is so thin that you would need something like a dust storm 10,000 times stronger than any that has ever been observed to make any difference to a Mars ascent vehicle. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 23, 2019 10:27:22 GMT
What if there's a major dust storm paralyzing action during the probably narrow window that the ground mission is due to take off and link up with the orbiter for the trip back to Earth to start?
Who cares? Mars atmosphere is so thin that you would need something like a dust storm 10,000 times stronger than any that has ever been observed to make any difference to a Mars ascent vehicle.
You have scientific evidence of that or is that just an assumption? Even thin dust at speed will cause a lot of erosion and buffeting.
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dayton3
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Post by dayton3 on Dec 30, 2019 22:43:44 GMT
Who cares? Mars atmosphere is so thin that you would need something like a dust storm 10,000 times stronger than any that has ever been observed to make any difference to a Mars ascent vehicle.
You have scientific evidence of that or is that just an assumption? Even thin dust at speed will cause a lot of erosion and buffeting.
Dr. Robert Zubrin in his book "The Case for Mars" pretty thoroughly debunks the idea of dust storms on Mars being a major impediment to a manned landing and exploration. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 31, 2019 15:38:54 GMT
You have scientific evidence of that or is that just an assumption? Even thin dust at speed will cause a lot of erosion and buffeting.
Dr. Robert Zubrin in his book "The Case for Mars" pretty thoroughly debunks the idea of dust storms on Mars being a major impediment to a manned landing and exploration.
OK thanks. Will try and find out more.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 31, 2019 15:41:14 GMT
Dr. Robert Zubrin in his book "The Case for Mars" pretty thoroughly debunks the idea of dust storms on Mars being a major impediment to a manned landing and exploration. OK thanks. Will try and find out more.
Seems you can also check the Wikipedia page of the book stevep. The Case for Mars |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 31, 2019 16:09:51 GMT
OK thanks. Will try and find out more.
Seems you can also check the Wikipedia page of the book stevep . The Case for Mars
Interesting thanks.  The Wiki page doesn't include details on the dust-storm issue but no doubt a lot mentioned in the book other than the brief summary here. The Mars Direct page linked to it has more details and also mentions some of the doubts of assorted groups.
I think the advantage of Luna as an intervening stage - which might not counter the disadvantages depending on how things develop - is less in terms of lessons learnt on Luna than that a lot more could be done from a mission launched with moon based resources than from Earth. It would take longer because you need to develop bases on Luna 1st but could be far more effective in the longer run. Zubrin's comparison of it being less efficient than a mission launched from low Earth orbit is somewhat misleading as the problem is getting to low Earth orbit 1st.
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The Wiki page doesn't include details on the dust-storm issue but no doubt a lot mentioned in the book other than the brief summary here. The Mars Direct page linked to it has more details and also mentions some of the doubts of assorted groups.