James G
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Post by James G on May 5, 2019 21:35:45 GMT
Landing on Mars for exploration or colonisation has long been seen in fiction but it currently seems impossible to do.
However, humans have always explored where others have said it is impossible to go. Who would have thought that the Moon was possible?
I think China will land on Mars first with crew members walking on the surface?
Does anyone agree? Or think it will be another country?
Or maybe a company instead of a nation state?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 6, 2019 10:27:30 GMT
Landing on Mars for exploration or colonisation has long been seen in fiction but it currently seems impossible to do. However, humans have always explored where others have said it is impossible to go. Who would have thought that the Moon was possible? I think China will land on Mars first with crew members walking on the surface? Does anyone agree? Or think it will be another country? Or maybe a company instead of a nation state?
Can't see it being a corporation, at least unless there is something very attractive to lure them there - unobtainium mines say? In which case unless national governments have pretty much totally collapsed they will still have the edge.
China definitely looks the most likely at this point. It would be a huge task and their got the technological and economic base and quite possibly the will and government stability to do this. That could chance of course if China suffers a serious disaster or proves a lot more fragile than it looks at the moment. Or simply the level of autocracy and repression cripples innovation and results in a dramatic decline in the states capacity. However any of those options look unlikely at the moment.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 6, 2019 14:12:20 GMT
Landing on Mars for exploration or colonisation has long been seen in fiction but it currently seems impossible to do. However, humans have always explored where others have said it is impossible to go. Who would have thought that the Moon was possible? I think China will land on Mars first with crew members walking on the surface? Does anyone agree? Or think it will be another country? Or maybe a company instead of a nation state? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 6, 2019 14:39:56 GMT
Landing on Mars for exploration or colonisation has long been seen in fiction but it currently seems impossible to do. However, humans have always explored where others have said it is impossible to go. Who would have thought that the Moon was possible? I think China will land on Mars first with crew members walking on the surface? Does anyone agree? Or think it will be another country? Or maybe a company instead of a nation state?
Interesting about Musk's proposals but he does seem to have a very tight time schedule for the mission with testing of the planned launcher due to go on for another 3-4 years which makes 2024 for a manned mission to Mars sound very unlikely. Have to see how things go and whether he will be able to raise the funds for such an operation with minimal fiscal/economic returns.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 7, 2019 16:36:28 GMT
Interesting about Musk's proposals but he does seem to have a very tight time schedule for the mission with testing of the planned launcher due to go on for another 3-4 years which makes 2024 for a manned mission to Mars sound very unlikely. Have to see how things go and whether he will be able to raise the funds for such an operation with minimal fiscal/economic returns.
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on May 7, 2019 22:41:55 GMT
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kyng
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Post by kyng on May 11, 2019 19:42:09 GMT
Poland, just to prove that Poland can into space.
Nah, I think it depends on whether it's a government-run or a private mission. If it's a government-run mission, then my prediction is that it'll be China: they seem to be ahead of everyone other than the USA, but America's democratic government may instead be forced to focus on problems on this planet, whereas China's autocratic government isn't so accountable to its citizens. If it's a private mission, then it could come from anywhere in the world, but the USA seems like the leading candidate, since they have the deepest pool of innovators. (Though, if the EU unites into a federal superstate, then they may be a close second)
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 11, 2019 21:14:25 GMT
Poland, just to prove that Poland can into space.Nah, I think it depends on whether it's a government-run or a private mission. If it's a government-run mission, then my prediction is that it'll be China: they seem to be ahead of everyone other than the USA, but America's democratic government may instead be forced to focus on problems on this planet, whereas China's autocratic government isn't so accountable to its citizens. If it's a private mission, then it could come from anywhere in the world, but the USA seems like the leading candidate, since they have the deepest pool of innovators. (Though, if the EU unites into a federal superstate, then they may be a close second)
Would agree that if its a private mission its almost certainly a going to be a US one. Not too many countries would have the technology and resources and in some of them, most noticeably China and Russia I can't see the government allowing such a private organisation having the necessary power and independence.
Ditto for a government only really the US and China have the technology and resources - in theory possibly Japan and the EU but doubt they would be willing to commit to such a massive task. Also agree that the US, unless you get a Kennedy type moment where its seen as a national priority to beat the Chinese.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 24, 2019 17:55:41 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2019 19:43:36 GMT
Any mission to Mars will be a suicide mission, so....Japan? ISIL?
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on May 24, 2019 20:18:11 GMT
Any mission to Mars will be a suicide mission, so....Japan? ISIL? . It goes without saying that Japan has so much of a better shot at conducting the first manned mission to Mars, though how it compares to other nations like China, Russia and the United States in this arena, I can't say. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 31, 2019 7:30:08 GMT
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sandyman
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Post by sandyman on May 31, 2019 18:12:39 GMT
Landing on Mars for exploration or colonisation has long been seen in fiction but it currently seems impossible to do. However, humans have always explored where others have said it is impossible to go. Who would have thought that the Moon was possible? I think China will land on Mars first with crew members walking on the surface? Does anyone agree? Or think it will be another country? Or maybe a company instead of a nation state?
Can't see it being a corporation, at least unless there is something very attractive to lure them there - unobtainium mines say? In which case unless national governments have pretty much totally collapsed they will still have the edge.
China definitely looks the most likely at this point. It would be a huge task and their got the technological and economic base and quite possibly the will and government stability to do this. That could chance of course if China suffers a serious disaster or proves a lot more fragile than it looks at the moment. Or simply the level of autocracy and repression cripples innovation and results in a dramatic decline in the states capacity. However any of those options look unlikely at the moment.
Iceland lol |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 1, 2019 9:08:00 GMT
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 1, 2019 12:51:27 GMT
Must admit it sounds more like the sort of bluster we're used to from Trump. Given the huge costs and time scale of such operations he's very likely to lose interest soon especially with so many problems nearer home. Especially since many of them are of his own creation. Its not going to be an operation to be completed within a decade, as the Apollo operation was and Trump lacks the sort of personality to inspire people like Kennedy did on a big target, especially with the lack of a clear military threat to inspire such a targets for technological success.
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