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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Apr 26, 2019 17:58:06 GMT
Say some form of Russian Empire/Republic survived the Civil War - what effect does that have on history?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 26, 2019 18:02:39 GMT
Say some form of Russian Empire/Republic survived the Civil War - what effect does that have on history? Its more likely we could see a Russian Hawaii (mention in this article: What if: Russian Hawaii) then we would see a Russian Taiwan which would indicate the Japanese lost it during the Russo-Japanese War . |
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James G
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Post by James G on Apr 26, 2019 19:06:02 GMT
Say some form of Russian Empire/Republic survived the Civil War - what effect does that have on history? I think I get what you mean. The Crimea would be an easy example though it would always need to be on friendly terms with Turkey if it was to survive. A Russian Far East would be at the mercy of Japan too. I'd think that if anywhere, it would have to be in the west, on the edges of Europe. Which might or might not mean having St. Petersburg. Germany, even Poland, will always be a problem but having their backing against what could be billed as the 'Asian hordes' might allow a small state to survive there better than anywhere else. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 27, 2019 9:55:50 GMT
Say some form of Russian Empire/Republic survived the Civil War - what effect does that have on history?
Do you mean survives as in winning or as in a rump state that manages to live alongside a communist one dominating most/all of the rest of the former empire? Suspect James is right in assuming the latter but just to clarify please.
In the former case the impacts would be huge. Both in Russia [and possible empire itself] and in the rest of the world. For instance with Russia not being a distrusted pariah state its going to be pretty damned difficult to seeing Germany having any real hope of revanchism and overrunning most of Europe as OTL.
In the latter its difficult to see where it would survive alongside a massive and deeply hostile Bolshevik state. Possibly the best bet is as a puppet of Japan as Russian E Asia has a good defensive position. Somewhere like the Crimean is simply to vulnerable assuming the communists control the Ukraine.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 27, 2019 10:08:02 GMT
Say some form of Russian Empire/Republic survived the Civil War - what effect does that have on history? Do you mean survives as in winning or as in a rump state that manages to live alongside a communist one dominating most/all of the rest of the former empire? Suspect James is right in assuming the latter but just to clarify please. In the former case the impacts would be huge. Both in Russia [and possible empire itself] and in the rest of the world. For instance with Russia not being a distrusted pariah state its going to be pretty damned difficult to seeing Germany having any real hope of revanchism and overrunning most of Europe as OTL.
In the latter its difficult to see where it would survive alongside a massive and deeply hostile Bolshevik state. Possibly the best bet is as a puppet of Japan as Russian E Asia has a good defensive position. Somewhere like the Crimean is simply to vulnerable assuming the communists control the Ukraine.
Once read a book called the The Island of Crimea and its a alternative history (abetted by alternative geography—Crimea is a peninsula) wherein the Russian civil war ends with the tsarist forces able to hold onto this southern scrap of the old empire. Skip forward sixty years, and Crimea is a booming Hong Kong to the U.S.S.R.’s China. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 27, 2019 10:41:10 GMT
Do you mean survives as in winning or as in a rump state that manages to live alongside a communist one dominating most/all of the rest of the former empire? Suspect James is right in assuming the latter but just to clarify please. In the former case the impacts would be huge. Both in Russia [and possible empire itself] and in the rest of the world. For instance with Russia not being a distrusted pariah state its going to be pretty damned difficult to seeing Germany having any real hope of revanchism and overrunning most of Europe as OTL.
In the latter its difficult to see where it would survive alongside a massive and deeply hostile Bolshevik state. Possibly the best bet is as a puppet of Japan as Russian E Asia has a good defensive position. Somewhere like the Crimean is simply to vulnerable assuming the communists control the Ukraine.
Once read a book called the The Island of Crimea and its a alternative history (abetted by alternative geography—Crimea is a peninsula) wherein the Russian civil war ends with the tsarist forces able to hold onto this southern scrap of the old empire. Skip forward sixty years, and Crimea is a booming Hong Kong to the U.S.S.R.’s China. I think I remember something like this being mentioned in the past, either here or another site. However even if Crimea was made an actual island and say at least 10-20 miles separated from the mainland I doubt it could survive in the face of communist opposition. It would need a great power backer to provide protection and that would be difficult when its located in the Black Sea. Also when the Soviet state recovers from the civil war and internal bloodletting their going to see a strong incentive to remove the threat of a surviving monarchist state. Plus if you get something like OTL WWII its likely to be in the Soviet share of the equivalent of the R-M Pact. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Apr 27, 2019 10:58:07 GMT
Once read a book called the The Island of Crimea and its a alternative history (abetted by alternative geography—Crimea is a peninsula) wherein the Russian civil war ends with the tsarist forces able to hold onto this southern scrap of the old empire. Skip forward sixty years, and Crimea is a booming Hong Kong to the U.S.S.R.’s China. I think I remember something like this being mentioned in the past, either here or another site. However even if Crimea was made an actual island and say at least 10-20 miles separated from the mainland I doubt it could survive in the face of communist opposition. It would need a great power backer to provide protection and that would be difficult when its located in the Black Sea. Also when the Soviet state recovers from the civil war and internal bloodletting their going to see a strong incentive to remove the threat of a surviving monarchist state. Plus if you get something like OTL WWII its likely to be in the Soviet share of the equivalent of the R-M Pact. Well we always have a Far Eastern Republic, is that more likely than a Russian Taiwan ore Russian Crimea. |
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Apr 27, 2019 11:05:43 GMT
Say some form of Russian Empire/Republic survived the Civil War - what effect does that have on history?
Do you mean survives as in winning or as in a rump state that manages to live alongside a communist one dominating most/all of the rest of the former empire? Suspect James is right in assuming the latter but just to clarify please.
In the former case the impacts would be huge. Both in Russia [and possible empire itself] and in the rest of the world. For instance with Russia not being a distrusted pariah state its going to be pretty damned difficult to seeing Germany having any real hope of revanchism and overrunning most of Europe as OTL.
In the latter its difficult to see where it would survive alongside a massive and deeply hostile Bolshevik state. Possibly the best bet is as a puppet of Japan as Russian E Asia has a good defensive position. Somewhere like the Crimean is simply to vulnerable assuming the communists control the Ukraine.
I meant the latter in the same way as Taiwan being ROC territory as opposed to PRC. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 27, 2019 12:20:16 GMT
Do you mean survives as in winning or as in a rump state that manages to live alongside a communist one dominating most/all of the rest of the former empire? Suspect James is right in assuming the latter but just to clarify please.
In the former case the impacts would be huge. Both in Russia [and possible empire itself] and in the rest of the world. For instance with Russia not being a distrusted pariah state its going to be pretty damned difficult to seeing Germany having any real hope of revanchism and overrunning most of Europe as OTL.
In the latter its difficult to see where it would survive alongside a massive and deeply hostile Bolshevik state. Possibly the best bet is as a puppet of Japan as Russian E Asia has a good defensive position. Somewhere like the Crimean is simply to vulnerable assuming the communists control the Ukraine.
I meant the latter in the same way as Taiwan being ROC territory as opposed to PRC.
Ok thanks. I actually failed to read the actual thread title.  Wondering why the hell Lordroel was talking about Taiwan but forgot to ask. See now. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Apr 27, 2019 12:26:10 GMT
I think I remember something like this being mentioned in the past, either here or another site. However even if Crimea was made an actual island and say at least 10-20 miles separated from the mainland I doubt it could survive in the face of communist opposition. It would need a great power backer to provide protection and that would be difficult when its located in the Black Sea. Also when the Soviet state recovers from the civil war and internal bloodletting their going to see a strong incentive to remove the threat of a surviving monarchist state. Plus if you get something like OTL WWII its likely to be in the Soviet share of the equivalent of the R-M Pact. Well we always have a Far Eastern Republic, is that more likely than a Russian Taiwan ore Russian Crimea.
Probably something like that. I can't see a literal Russian Taiwan as if somehow they won the war with Japan and then secured that, which I suspect is unlikely, then during the civil war someone, probably either Japan or China would take it over.
Russian Crimea is I suspect too vulnerable but a Russian far east, either as a republic or a monarchical state with probably Japanese 'protection' is a definite possibility. Would very likely include most of the region north to the Arctic as the main access by land is from the area of that 'republic'. It would also have impacts on Japanese and world history I suspect.
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Apr 27, 2019 17:35:08 GMT
I meant the latter in the same way as Taiwan being ROC territory as opposed to PRC.
Ok thanks. I actually failed to read the actual thread title. Wondering why the hell Lordroel was talking about Taiwan but forgot to ask. See now. I meant a surviving non-Communist Russia in the same way as Taiwan is a surviving non-Communist China. |
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James G
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Post by James G on May 5, 2019 22:34:58 GMT
Thinking on this, while where this other Russia is located is important, so too is its form of government.
A Tsarist Russia might be replaced by a democracy who oppose the communists.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on May 6, 2019 0:07:37 GMT
The Far Eastern Republic would have qualified as a "Taiwan" analogue, but it would require massive Allied backing. Nerf the Soviets enough and then you could have a surviving FER there.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 6, 2019 11:15:04 GMT
The Far Eastern Republic would have qualified as a "Taiwan" analogue, but it would require massive Allied backing. Nerf the Soviets enough and then you could have a surviving FER there.
Well given the terrain and the degree to which Russia was nerfed by the civil war anyway its quite possible that if the Japanese had decided to stay in the region it could have lasted as an anti-Soviet Japanese protectorate. There's a region, I think its just west of Irkutsk [possibly a bit to the east, can't remember for sure] where other than one narrow section of a mountain pass there's no way through other than by literally several hundred miles of wilderness to the proposed FER and the Japanese can use the Amur river to greatly aid their logistics.
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James G
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Post by James G on May 9, 2019 17:08:05 GMT
The Far Eastern Republic would have qualified as a "Taiwan" analogue, but it would require massive Allied backing. Nerf the Soviets enough and then you could have a surviving FER there.
Well given the terrain and the degree to which Russia was nerfed by the civil war anyway its quite possible that if the Japanese had decided to stay in the region it could have lasted as an anti-Soviet Japanese protectorate. There's a region, I think its just west of Irkutsk [possibly a bit to the east, can't remember for sure] where other than one narrow section of a mountain pass there's no way through other than by literally several hundred miles of wilderness to the proposed FER and the Japanese can use the Amur river to greatly aid their logistics.
That would be as far as Lake Baikal and mean a HUGE area would remain as an non-communist Russia. Maybe Japan slices off bits in that scenario - the rest of Sakhalin and even Kamchatka - but would still be a big nation. |
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Wondering why the hell Lordroel was talking about Taiwan but forgot to ask. See now.