lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 26, 2019 20:28:20 GMT
Operation Caribbean Storm: Venezuela-Netherlands War of 2019
Lets discuses how a war between Venezuela-Netherlands looks like, keep it realistic, i start by using this article i have updated some what but to begin with:
If Venezuelan Nicolás Maduro Moros due all of the tensions that is going on made a grab for the Dutch Caribbean (Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire), could the Dutch really do anything about it? The Dutch military is no slouch, having performed peacekeeping missions in the Balkans and has served alongside the United States military in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, these have been relatively small contingents of land forces as opposed to a major naval-air campaign, which reclaiming those Caribbean islands would entail (see the British effort to reclaim the Falklands in 1982).
The Royal Netherlands Navy is small, but has very good ships. This force carries a lengthy tradition going back centuries, a tradition that includes beating the British at sea many times. Their fleet consist of 4 De Zeven Provincien-class frigates (armed with SM-2MR and Evolved Sea Sparrow surface-to-air missiles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles) 2 Karel Doorman-class frigates (armed with Sea Sparrows and Harpoons), 4 Holland-class offshore patrol vessels (armament 1 OTO Melara 76 mm), 4 four Walrus-class diesel-electric submarines, 2 landing platform dock amphibious vessels, HNLMS Rotterdam and HNLMS Johan Van Witt and the Joint Support Ship HNLMS Karel Doorman. The Royal Netherlands Air Force is also potent and it consists of 60 F-16As MLU, making them very capable against aerial opponents. This is the bulk of their combat power. They have also got 28 AH-64D Longbow Apaches, 4 Lockheed C-130s and 2 KDC-10F aerial refueling aircraft (comparable to the KC-10), 20 NHIndustries NH90 helicopters, 12 Eurocopter AS532 transport helicopters and 17 Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters.
In the event that Venezuela should seize Aruba, Curacao, and/or Bonaire, Maduro will have a lot of places in Venezuela for his Air Force to reach the Dutch islands. The nearest Dutch territory is St. Marteen, which is anywhere from 844 (to Bonaire) to 965 (to Aruba) kilometers from the combat zone. The F-16's range is 2642 kilometers, but that figure is misleading. Combat eats up fuel very rapidly (often due to the use of afterburners), and as a result, the potential combat zone, even with aerial refueling, is at the edge of the F-16's combat radius (usually a third of the aircraft's range - in this case, 880 kilometers). Drop tanks could extend the range, but that means giving up some payload. This is a situation much like what the Luftwaffe faced in 1940 in the Battle of Britain, only this time, it would be an inability to provide sustained air cover for naval vessels as opposed to the inability to properly escort strike aircraft. As Admiral Sir Thomas Phillips, commander of Force Z (HMS Prince of Wales and Repulse), found out in 1941, a naval force sailing under hostile skies has an exciting and short life.
The present Dutch deployment (1 rifle company belonging to the 32 Raiding Squadron of the Royal Netherlands Marine Corps and 1 rotating company belonging to the Royal Netherlands Army) is small and professional. If Venezuela calls the bluff, the Dutch are in trouble. Even if the Dutch forces were reinforced to include a battalion on each island, and a full squadron of F-16s, they are outnumbered by a potential invasion force. Venezuela has four brigades in their marine corps, plus an airborne regiment and a paratroop regiment. The local F-16s would be outnumbered by the Venezuelan Air Force, which has 16 F-16As and 35 Su-30s. The Venezuelan Navy with 3 Lupo-class frigates, 4 Guaiquerí-class patrol boats, 6 Constitución-class gunboats and two Type 209 submarines, could also create problems for any Dutch effort to recapture the islands.
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 26, 2019 20:39:41 GMT
Forward bases would be what the Netherlands would need. The two LPDs are good platforms but islands are better. That island St. Marteen, also Saba too, are far away from the ABC islands. There are closer French islands if France joins the Netherlands... but then France can bring a carrier too!
Anyway, forward island bases would be needed for the Dutch to retake those islands. Venezuela is close by with short flying time and also a coastline to hide naval craft among the radar return of while the Dutch will always have aerial fuel concerns - do they still have those KDC-10 tankers? - and open water where their ships are.
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Post by eurowatch on Feb 26, 2019 20:45:25 GMT
Operation Caribbean Storm: Venezuela-Netherlands War of 2019
Lets discuses how a war between Venezuela-Netherlands looks like, keep it realistic, i start by using this article i have updated some what but to begin with:
If Venezuelan Nicolás Maduro Moros due all of the tensions that is going on made a grab for the Dutch Caribbean (Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire), could the Dutch really do anything about it? The Dutch military is no slouch, having performed peacekeeping missions in the Balkans and has served alongside the United States military in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, these have been relatively small contingents of land forces as opposed to a major naval-air campaign, which reclaiming those Caribbean islands would entail (see the British effort to reclaim the Falklands in 1982).
The Royal Netherlands Navy is small, but has very good ships. This force carries a lengthy tradition going back centuries, a tradition that includes beating the British at sea many times. Their fleet consist of 4 De Zeven Provincien-class frigates (armed with SM-2MR and Evolved Sea Sparrow surface-to-air missiles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles) 2 Karel Doorman-class frigates (armed with Sea Sparrows and Harpoons), 4 Holland-class offshore patrol vessels (armament 1 OTO Melara 76 mm), 4 four Walrus-class diesel-electric submarines, 2 landing platform dock amphibious vessels, HNLMS Rotterdam and HNLMS Johan Van Witt and the Joint Support Ship HNLMS Karel Doorman. The Royal Netherlands Air Force is also potent and it consists of 60 F-16As MLU, making them very capable against aerial opponents. This is the bulk of their combat power. They have also got 28 AH-64D Longbow Apaches, 4 Lockheed C-130s and 2 KDC-10F aerial refueling aircraft (comparable to the KC-10), 20 NHIndustries NH90 helicopters, 12 Eurocopter AS532 transport helicopters and 17 Boeing CH-47 Chinook
helicopters.
In the event that Venezuela should seize Aruba, Curacao, and/or Bonaire, Maduro will have a lot of places in Venezuela for his Air Force to reach the Dutch islands. The nearest Dutch territory is St. Marteen, which is anywhere from 844 (to Bonaire) to 965 (to Aruba) kilometers from the combat zone. The F-16's range is 2642 kilometers, but that figure is misleading. Combat eats up fuel very rapidly (often due to the use of afterburners), and as a result, the potential combat zone, even with aerial refueling, is at the edge of the F-16's combat radius (usually a third of the aircraft's range - in this case, 880 kilometers). Drop tanks could extend the range, but that means giving up some payload. This is a situation much like what the Luftwaffe faced in 1940 in the Battle of Britain, only this time, it would be an inability to provide sustained air cover for naval vessels as opposed to the inability to properly escort strike aircraft. As Admiral Sir Thomas Phillips, commander of Force Z (HMS Prince of Wales and Repulse), found out in 1941, a naval force sailing under hostile skies has an exciting and short life.
The present Dutch deployment (1 rifle company belonging to the 32 Raiding Squadron of the Royal Netherlands Marine Corps and 1 rotating company belonging to the Royal Netherlands Army) is small and professional. If Venezuela calls the bluff, the Dutch are in trouble. Even if the Dutch forces were reinforced to include a battalion on each island, and a full squadron of F-16s, they are outnumbered by a potential invasion force. Venezuela has four brigades in their marine corps, plus an airborne regiment and a paratroop regiment. The local F-16s would be outnumbered by the Venezuelan Air Force, which has 16 F-16As and 35 Su-30s. The Venezuelan Navy with 3 Lupo-class frigates, 4 Guaiquerí-class patrol boats, 6 Constitución-class gunboats and two Type 209 submarines, could also create problems for any Dutch effort to recapture the islands.
The most pressing problems I see are: how is Madurodam going to pay for this war since Venezuela is throughly broke and how willing is the average Venezuelan going to be to die for Caracas? And it is also not going to be a fight solely between Venezuela and The Netherlands, Trump might use this as an excuse to replace Madurodam and the EU is not going to take some upstart dictator playing conquerer against one of its core members laying Down. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 26, 2019 20:46:21 GMT
Forward bases would be what the Netherlands would need. The two LPDs are good platforms but islands are better. That island St. Marteen, also Saba too, are far away from the ABC islands. There are closer French islands if France joins the Netherlands... but then France can bring a carrier too! Anyway, forward island bases would be needed for the Dutch to retake those islands. Venezuela is close by with short flying time and also a coastline to hide naval craft among the radar return of while the Dutch will always have aerial fuel concerns - do they still have those KDC-10 tankers? - and open water where their ships are. Yep both are in service and going to be replaced from 2020 with the Airbus A330 - MRTT. |
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forcon
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Post by forcon on Feb 26, 2019 21:10:46 GMT
On neutral ground it's a fight the Dutch probably win, albeit with heavy losses. The Venezuelan Army has some fancy kit - T-90s, Su-30s etc, but their training is presumably nowhere near NATO-Russia-PRC standards.
The Netherlands needs a forward staging base for its F-16s. Otherwise it loses. With no carriers, they won't be able to gain air superiority without forward air bases. It the Dutch can secure bases for their F-16s close enough to the fighting then they win, IMHO.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 27, 2019 3:01:33 GMT
Wouldn't Article Five of the NATO charter kick in if Maduro attacks the Dutch?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 27, 2019 3:59:55 GMT
Wouldn't Article Five of the NATO charter kick in if Maduro attacks the Dutch? No as Article 6 of the North Atlantic Threaty signed in 1949: Article 6 (1) For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack: - on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France (2), on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer; - on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer. Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire are south of the Tropic of Cancer (de kreeftskeerkring), so an attack on them would not immediately mean NATO intervention. |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 27, 2019 7:19:01 GMT
Ok, the way I see it, Venezuela can easily lose against the Netherlands with these factors in play:
- Besides the well trained and well motivated Dutch Army facing off against a demoralized Venezuelan military that might lead to a Peron-like downfall for Maduro, there might also be other nations that would want to get involved.
- Colombia could act as a conduit for the delivery of supplies to the Dutch in addition to the Dutch islands there, as well as possible Colombian involvement in the ground conflict.
- Bolsonaro's Brazil would be involved in making sure that any possible flow of refugees would have to be managed. I can also see the Brazilians establish a series of refugee camps for those who will flee from the fighting.
The way I see it, this may be the repeat of the Falklands conflict, though could we also see Venezuela lose some territory in the process?
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Post by stevep on Feb 27, 2019 17:06:17 GMT
Wouldn't Article Five of the NATO charter kick in if Maduro attacks the Dutch? No as Article 6 of the North Atlantic Threaty signed in 1949: Article 6 (1) For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack: - on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France (2), on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer; - on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer. Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire are south of the Tropic of Cancer (de kreeftskeerkring), so an attack on them would not immediately mean NATO intervention.
Ah that might be a factor officially but I suspect most NATO members would fully support the Netherlands anyway, especially those with a capacity to project power. Basically the US with a long way behind France and Britain.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 27, 2019 17:16:29 GMT
No as Article 6 of the North Atlantic Threaty signed in 1949: Article 6 (1) For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack: - on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France (2), on the territory of or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer; - on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer. Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire are south of the Tropic of Cancer (de kreeftskeerkring), so an attack on them would not immediately mean NATO intervention. Ah that might be a factor officially but I suspect most NATO members would fully support the Netherlands anyway, especially those with a capacity to project power. Basically the US with a long way behind France and Britain.
The Netherlands might have one problem, Joint Support Ship HNLMS Karel Doorman is out of action for at least 5 months due here getting here maintenance done, but so far as i can see, if needed she can go back to sea, she will be needed as she is to only tanker the Royal Netherlands has until the arrival of Combat Support Ship HNLMS Den Helder until 2023. |
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Feb 27, 2019 18:17:04 GMT
I think it's a NATO victory as we and the Americans aren't going to throw the Dutch under the proverbial bus; the Venezuelan Air Force is a moot point when HMS Queen Elizabeth and her aircraft are heading towards Caracas. Best case is that the Venezuelans see the writing on the wall and surrender with Guáido made the new President; worst case is a Venezuelan air strike on American soil (wouldn't surprise me) and Trump breaks out the Instasun(tm).
This message has been brought to you by Instasun(tm). Instasun - for all your diplomatic problems!
Warning: Use of Instasun may lead to radioactive fall-out and sanctions imposed by the Security Council. Check with your Non-Profileration Treaty if Instasun is right for you.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 27, 2019 18:20:07 GMT
I think it's a NATO victory as we and the Americans aren't going to throw the Dutch under the proverbial bus; the Venezuelan Air Force is a moot point when HMS Queen Elizabeth and her aircraft are heading towards Caracas. Best case is that the Venezuelans see the writing on the wall and surrender with Guáido made the new President; worst case is a Venezuelan air strike on American soil (wouldn't surprise me) and Trump breaks out the Instasun(tm). As far as i can tell HMS Queen Elizabeth does not yet have a full squadron of F-35Bs to operate, so it mostly will be a helicopter carrier. |
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Post by eurowatch on Feb 27, 2019 18:28:41 GMT
Another possibility is that the Netherlands and the US set up a detterent force in the Carribean to discourage if not Madurodam, then at least his soldiers. The average Venezuelan soldier does not seem to be the kind that is very interested in dying for Caracas and Madurodam.
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Feb 27, 2019 18:31:40 GMT
I think it's a NATO victory as we and the Americans aren't going to throw the Dutch under the proverbial bus; the Venezuelan Air Force is a moot point when HMS Queen Elizabeth and her aircraft are heading towards Caracas. Best case is that the Venezuelans see the writing on the wall and surrender with Guáido made the new President; worst case is a Venezuelan air strike on American soil (wouldn't surprise me) and Trump breaks out the Instasun(tm). As far as i can tell HMS Queen Elizabeth does not yet have a full squadron of F-35Bs to operate, so it mostly will be a helicopter carrier. There are still other aircraft carriers and destroyers in our armoury - plus Trinidad are a Commonwealth country and would gladly help us with basing. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 27, 2019 18:34:36 GMT
Another possibility is that the Netherlands and the US set up a detterent force in the Carribean to discourage if not Madurodam, then at least his soldiers. The average Venezuelan soldier does not seem to be the kind that is very interested in dying for Caracas and Madurodam. Some F-22s of the United States Air Force operating from Hato International Airport might do the trick, might look like this picture from 2016.  |
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