James G
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Post by James G on Feb 13, 2019 21:02:21 GMT
I'm wondering what others would think of how Spain would fare if Hitler had another tooth pulled with regards to Franco and Spain joined the war.
Does Spain at once conquer Gibraltar? Do the Allies grab the Canaries? Are Spain's remaining colonies all taken or just cut-off? Will Spanish Morocco, and Spanish-occupied Tangiers too, a battlefield? Does Iberia itself become a battlefield with a war in Portugal or an Allied invasion of mainland Spain?
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Post by redrobin65 on Feb 14, 2019 1:12:17 GMT
I'm wondering what others would think of how Spain would fare if Hitler had another tooth pulled with regards to Franco and Spain joined the war. Does Spain at once conquer Gibraltar? Do the Allies grab the Canaries? Are Spain's remaining colonies all taken or just cut-off? Will Spanish Morocco, and Spanish-occupied Tangiers too, a battlefield? Does Iberia itself become a battlefield with a war in Portugal or an Allied invasion of mainland Spain? Spain would be a drain on the Axis. Short on fuel, short on food. They would have to be propped up by the Germans. In addition, British food exports to Spain would end. The Spanish Army lacked good armour and the artillery was outdated. The civil war ended in '39 but Republican insurgents fought well into the 60s. I could imagine the British trying to support them. Of course, the Germans could move through Spain and take Gibraltar. The British could take the Canaries and Spanish Morocco. There might be an invasion of Portugal as well. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 14, 2019 3:47:51 GMT
I'm wondering what others would think of how Spain would fare if Hitler had another tooth pulled with regards to Franco and Spain joined the war. Does Spain at once conquer Gibraltar? Do the Allies grab the Canaries? Are Spain's remaining colonies all taken or just cut-off? Will Spanish Morocco, and Spanish-occupied Tangiers too, a battlefield? Does Iberia itself become a battlefield with a war in Portugal or an Allied invasion of mainland Spain? Could this happen: What If: Franco’s Spain Had Entered the War in 1941 |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 14, 2019 12:05:19 GMT
Gibraltar will fall eventually and with the Spanish mainland so close I'm not sure whether Britain could take Spanish Morocco but I know there are plans for the Canaries and suspect Britain would take them over.
It might be that this forces Britain to decide that Malta is unsupportable as it can only be supported from the eastern Med. Also while the Canaries would make a useful base for air and light naval units I doubt it would be able to support a major force like Gibraltar did OTL.
There is the chance that Mussolini might try and send his fleet into the Atlantic but given it was needed in the Med to achieve his aims and its relatively short range I suspect that would be unlikely.
The Canaries might be a better base for Britain than Gibraltar for the Atlantic battle as it has more room for air bases and the like and its further west so better able to close some of the air gap.
Spain would be a big drain on Germany and its likely to see the remaining Republican and communist elements supplied by Britain although largely as small guerilla and intelligence gathering forces at 1st. Its going to complicate relations with Italy and Vichy as well as IIRC Franco wanted some French colonies while Mussolini wanted Gibraltar.
In the longer war an Iberian campaign is likely as it would be a good way to blood western allied forces in a location where the Germans would have difficulty supporting their allies. Especially possibly since clearing N Africa from either west or east is likely to be more difficult. However initial landings will be without land based air support, as with the initial Torch landings so unless say we could flip Portugal, which might be possible, it could be difficult to maintain the invasion. They would really need to secure at least one port and get land based air there quickly, unless they try say western N Africa 1st with landings in Morocco? Otherwise we might just wait for a Normandy/Calais type landing in 1944, although in this scenario that's likely to be more difficult.
Post-war, presuming an allied victory, could be interesting. Franco will definitely be gone but with the strength of communism in Spain could the country see even worse political division than France and Italy in the post-war years. Especially since anti-western forces are likely to use as propaganda that Britain will almost certainly want Gibraltar back.
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Feb 24, 2019 8:42:06 GMT
stevepBritain won't "want Gibraltar back", it will be a given that we get Gibraltar back. Maybe the Balearics and/or the Canaries could be part of a settlement as a "peacekeeping measure".
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 24, 2019 9:23:06 GMT
Something i found on Quora.com called: If-Spain-had-joined-the-Axis-in-WWIILet's analyse Spain's situation in 1939: Industrially speaking Spain was extremely weak and reliant on imports. Spanish manufacturing base was scarce and, additionally to its low density, backwardness and low productivity, was also in shambles in 1939. Furthermore, Spain basically had no domestically produced weapons as it relied mostly on foreign designs such as Italian and German planes and British engines. Politically speaking, Franco's power was not so strong: Spanish resistance, the so-called Maquis Espagnols actively fought Franco until 1947 with mixed results before eventually succumbing to Francoist increased repression and Cold War logic ( in which Francoism was tolerated in light of his anticommunism). This is a map of Spanish anti-Francoist activities ( source: Wikipedia)  3. Militarily, Spain was extremely weak due to the just-concluded civil war. It could boast many veteran units and excellent soldiers (many of whom fought in the División Azul remarkably well in Russia) and many experienced officers. Its navy was basically non-existent and its air force relied on planes given or left behind by Italians and Germans. Truth be told, the Franco-Spanish society (technically majority Spanish capitals before 1936 when it was nationalised by the Republicans and, in 1938, the French branch by the French government) Hispano-Suiza produced (and thus possessed highly sought and exploitable know-how) excellent aircraft engines and cannons (for example, the autocannons HS 9 and HS 404 equipped the RAF and the American M139 which equipped the Lockheed P38 was a license of HS 820). So, concretely what could Spain do and what effects would its entrance have assuming that Spain enters the war in 1940 given that in 1939 would have been absurd and suicidal (like entering in 1944). - The seizure of Gibraltar. On the one hand, convoys were already going around Africa due to the Italian navy; on the other hand though Gibraltar was a very important naval base and to deny it to the Royal Navy was still extremely important. In addition, the transfer of German and Italian submarines to and from the Mediterranean sea would have been unhindered, thus allowing greater flexibility to the Axis naval assets. - Bases for German Uboats and Luftwaffe's Condor meaning a better positioning against convoys' routes, more strategic options at Dönitz disposal, less fuel consumption and no Bay of Biscay massacres of Uboots. - Spain would have been economically integrated into German economic space as Hungary or Romania were. While this places an additional burden on Germany, this also means that Hitler has now access to over 160k tons of oil, more coal (and with German extraction technologies also modernisation as happened in katowice in Poland), while Franco could have fed Spaniards with Europe's grain, thus placating discontent. This also gives Germans lots of cannon fodder. - No Operation Torch, which translates into a longer and bloodier North African campaign: this, in turn means that Italy stays in the conflict for more time. In addition, the seizure of Gibraltar means that suppliying Malta can be done solely from Alexandria and that the Mediterranean Fleet can no longer count on the help of Force Z (the fleet based in Gibraltar) and this means that either Malta surrenders or that the Mediterranean Fleet has to expose itself to the Axis attacks more and more. - Contrarily to what may be thought, Spain could NOT be easily invaded. Any invasion would occur only in the South, in the area between the Portuguese borders and Gibraltar which means that there would be only two major ports available for supplies (Cadiz and Huelva) while the only air cover could come from carriers while being exposed to the full weight of Axis land-based aircrafts. Even assuming that the Allies could also simultaneously invade Morocco, this would requited require an enormous fleet of transports while being mercilessly exposed to enemy aircrafts and Uboots. To give you an idea of the logistical hassle that invading Spain and Morocco would mean; just consider that Casablanca would have been a really busy port as it would have received supplies, it would have been the departing port for the invasion force of Spain and the port of arrival of forces deployed in North Africa. In November 1942 it was estimated that Casablanca could reasonably handle 25000 tons of supplies and 3000 vehicles in 16 days which translated into many ships being sitting ducks for weeks while little to no continuous air cover can be provided while Axis forces can hit from land airports. After undertaking projects of expansion (which were carried out by 4 engineering battalions in 4 months without any enemy bothering them), Casablanca in March 1943 could handle 4000 tons of supplies per day (by comparison Cherbourg could handle 2500 tons per day in August 1944 and it was a small port in Normandy far closer to England). Finally, in terms of air cover the base of Fort Liautey would receive B17 only in February 1943 and the runway was constantly swept by sand. In this case there are two considerations to be made: a) The role of France. As a matter of fact, for Spain to enter the war is necessary that Franco be promised substantial terrritorial rewards in the form of French Morocco and Congo besides additional advantages in the Pyrenees (the Roussillon possibly). This though would probably alienate the Vichy regime which could have been less cooperative than historically was. This though means another sub-consideration: if Franco can claim Vichy's territories, so can Italy and this in turn means that Italy would seize Tunisia (historically the Italians repeatedly asked the possibility to take it out Hitler firmly refused for fear of angering Vichy). By seizing Tunisia, the task to resupply Rommel is much easier and less dangerous because the route Sicily-Tunisia is much shorter and because there was one railway from Tunis to Tripoli. b) Spain could have been simply skipped as were many islands in the Pacific: Operation Overlord would have still been entirely possible simply bypassing Spain and it is very doubtful that any additional Spanish or Italian reinforcement (if there could have been any in the first place) could have changed anything. This last point means that Spain entering into the war in 1940 ( NOT 1939 ) could have led to: - Fall of Gibraltar - Longer, bloodier and more difficult African campaign: possibly the fall of Suez. - More bases and range for German submarines in the battle of the Atlantic. - More men and material for the German war effort (especially in Russia). It is fairly evident that the pivotal point is whether or not the United Kingdom seeks peace after the fall of Gibraltar, the (eventual) fall of Suez, the increased losses in the Atlantic and the prospects that these factors would eventually mean. If that happens, then either the Axis wins in the East (and then reaches a stalemate with the US) or loses against the Soviet Union and then all of Europe becomes red. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 24, 2019 13:10:01 GMT
Lordroel Well if Gibraltar falls, which is likely it makes things more difficult for the RN and probably leads to the fall of Malta. That in turn could take a lot of pressure off the fleet in the Med without the need to supply it, but does mean that Britain can't rush supplies through the Med as it did in late 1940 including important units for Operation Compass so that might not occur or be delayed. [Although that could have pluses as well as negatives for the allies.]
However unless Churchill really screws things up and that's possible  , its very doubtful that the Axis will take Suez as El Alamein is a natural bottleneck and a hell of a long way from even the small port at Tobruk. Italy could well end up taking Tunisia and other places from Vichy and that would reduce the sea link between it and N Africa and definitely doom Malta to occupation. However while the RN and RAF were very effective at times in cutting the link landing supplies and men at Tunis means an even longer march to the front. I have seen it argued that even if no single Italian merchant ship was sunk, while those and the escorts would have survived little if no extra supplies would have reached the front, especially when it was sitting on the Egyptian border or even worse at El Alamein. There are no railways east of Tripoli IIRC so everything has to be brought forward by sea to Tobruk, which is a pretty small port or carried overland, which consumes huge amounts of oil.
Also if Hitler allows both Spain and Italy to carve chunks out of the French empire and homeland then Vichy France is probably dead pretty quickly and most of the colonies quickly go Free French. [Which could be awkward in the case of FIC depending on what this occurs]. Possibly Algeria as well although its unlikely it could last for long and the bulk of the French fleet probably either gets sunk or escapes to the allies. Wholesale defections to the FF would boost their resources and prestige and give a number of useful bases to the allies. Also the US, which for quite a while favoured Vichy over the FF is going to be further alienated while Hitler has again shown his word is worthless.
Loss of Gibraltar and use of Spanish ports by German and possibly Italian subs, a/c and raiders would be a serious problem for Britain. However taking the Canary Is which was planned and possibly other Spanish possessions would help counter this. Also given its limited infrastructure Spain might not be able to operate much without a lot of development - especially if Britain is able to trash most of Gib's dockyard before its captured.
An invasion of Spain would be difficult if done correctly. However possibly landings in Morocco and clearing N Africa via that then heading north might happen, although it would be longer and bloodier. There is of course another option. Operation Torch OTL involved Anglo-American landings on a pro-Axis neutral, i.e. Vichy France. TTL it could be Portugal, which would probably gain a fair measure of surprise and give a base, although if say in late 42 early 43 its probably going to be a long job to clear much of Spain. Alternatively as the article said possibly bi-pass it totally and just go into Normandy, although probably going to be much more difficult without any significant fighting in the Med west of Egypt.
Churchill won't make peace with Hitler but its possible if things were really looking hopeless that he could lose a vote of confidence in the Commons and be forced to resign. However that presumes either a massive revolt by the Tories or Labour voting against him which both seem highly unlikely. Even the extreme left will support continuing of the war after the Soviets are attacked.
If somehow this did happen, or possibly more likely his health suffers a serious/fatal decline due to the pressure, plus his lifestyle then you might get a government willing to make peace. However since Britain is still pretty secure from invasion and very likely holds Egypt and most of Africa and S Asia then its not going to be a surrender and few if any British politicians would trust the word of any Nazi so Germany is going to have to make some serious choices if it wants peace with Britain. Gibraltar and Malta will probably be lost and Italy might get their E African colonies back - albeit probably in a state of rebellion but I can't see Britain giving up control of Egypt and the canal and possibly insisting on keeping the Canaries. - A lot would depend on the timing. If Churchill say had a decapitating stroke just after Japan joins the war it looks bad but the US have just been pulled into the conflict and Russia is holding and about to inflict a serious defeat on the Germans. In the 6 months before that things are possibly looking bad as the Germans storm through much of Russia and it looks as if it will collapse. After about mid 42 Britain's position is looking strong presuming that the Japanese are defeated as OTL and by end 42 unless mismanagement means there is literally starvation breaking out in Britain the country will see things through to the end.
If Spain did enter the war it might mean more troops for the Axis in the latter stages but probably by indirect means. I.e. because there's no Med campaign the Axis doesn't have its OTL substantial losses in Tunisia and Germany doesn't have to replace Italian troops in Italy and the Balkans. Its unlikely to get more troops directly from Spain and might even get less as Franco now has to face both more resistance, supported by Britain and the threat, especially once the US enters the war, of invasion so there would need to be at least some effort on beach defences and fortifications. You could well end up going the other way with some German army units sent to Spain, although Germany is likely to end up better off without a Med campaign.
Economically since occupied Europe struggled to feed itself and most of any surplus of course went to Germany I'm not sure if Franco could get much if any additional grain or other foodstuff from an alliance with Germany and it would definitely lose the imports from the US. There would be more chance for blockade runners to reach the rest of the world with Spanish ports available and Gibraltar closed but their not likely to be carrying grain. As such the Spanish food situation is likely to deteriorate. Extra coal won't be very important as Germany has plenty of its own and 160k ton of oil sounds a lot but where is this from? I don't think Spain has any oil producing capacity outside possibly its colonies, which will be isolated so this could be a one off boost to the Axis stockpile but how much would Franco be willing to give up?
Presuming that Spanish belligerence means no substantial fighting in the Med and that the allies avoid a disaster in N France in 43, most likely by only invading in 44 and not suffering significantly greater losses its probably going to be a bloodier war for much of the continent and Stalin will hold somewhat more territory as Greece will probably end up in his hands and there's also a possible chance he might get into N Italy. Spain and N Africa would be occupied at the end of the conflict, possibly shortly before, but Spain could end up going communist which could be awkward. Britain, baring butterflies, is likely to be even more strained by the end of the war.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 24, 2019 13:12:46 GMT
stevep Britain won't "want Gibraltar back", it will be a given that we get Gibraltar back. Maybe the Balearics and/or the Canaries could be part of a settlement as a "peacekeeping measure".
Agree that we will get Gibraltar back. The Balearic's and Canaries are likely to be returned to Spain as too much hassle to hold and to win over the post-war Spanish government [and win support for it] although that could be different if Spain was to end up going communist. In that case however the US is likely to be the main force holding those islands, especially once they accept the threat that Stalin's regime holds to the western democracies.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 24, 2019 14:15:11 GMT
Lordroel Well if Gibraltar falls, which is likely it makes things more difficult for the RN and probably leads to the fall of Malta. That in turn could take a lot of pressure off the fleet in the Med without the need to supply it, but does mean that Britain can't rush supplies through the Med as it did in late 1940 including important units for Operation Compass so that might not occur or be delayed. [Although that could have pluses as well as negatives for the allies.] However unless Churchill really screws things up and that's possible , its very doubtful that the Axis will take Suez as El Alamein is a natural bottleneck and a hell of a long way from even the small port at Tobruk. Italy could well end up taking Tunisia and other places from Vichy and that would reduce the sea link between it and N Africa and definitely doom Malta to occupation. However while the RN and RAF were very effective at times in cutting the link landing supplies and men at Tunis means an even longer march to the front. I have seen it argued that even if no single Italian merchant ship was sunk, while those and the escorts would have survived little if no extra supplies would have reached the front, especially when it was sitting on the Egyptian border or even worse at El Alamein. There are no railways east of Tripoli IIRC so everything has to be brought forward by sea to Tobruk, which is a pretty small port or carried overland, which consumes huge amounts of oil. Also if Hitler allows both Spain and Italy to carve chunks out of the French empire and homeland then Vichy France is probably dead pretty quickly and most of the colonies quickly go Free French. [Which could be awkward in the case of FIC depending on what this occurs]. Possibly Algeria as well although its unlikely it could last for long and the bulk of the French fleet probably either gets sunk or escapes to the allies. Wholesale defections to the FF would boost their resources and prestige and give a number of useful bases to the allies. Also the US, which for quite a while favoured Vichy over the FF is going to be further alienated while Hitler has again shown his word is worthless. Loss of Gibraltar and use of Spanish ports by German and possibly Italian subs, a/c and raiders would be a serious problem for Britain. However taking the Canary Is which was planned and possibly other Spanish possessions would help counter this. Also given its limited infrastructure Spain might not be able to operate much without a lot of development - especially if Britain is able to trash most of Gib's dockyard before its captured. An invasion of Spain would be difficult if done correctly. However possibly landings in Morocco and clearing N Africa via that then heading north might happen, although it would be longer and bloodier. There is of course another option. Operation Torch OTL involved Anglo-American landings on a pro-Axis neutral, i.e. Vichy France. TTL it could be Portugal, which would probably gain a fair measure of surprise and give a base, although if say in late 42 early 43 its probably going to be a long job to clear much of Spain. Alternatively as the article said possibly bi-pass it totally and just go into Normandy, although probably going to be much more difficult without any significant fighting in the Med west of Egypt. Churchill won't make peace with Hitler but its possible if things were really looking hopeless that he could lose a vote of confidence in the Commons and be forced to resign. However that presumes either a massive revolt by the Tories or Labour voting against him which both seem highly unlikely. Even the extreme left will support continuing of the war after the Soviets are attacked.
If somehow this did happen, or possibly more likely his health suffers a serious/fatal decline due to the pressure, plus his lifestyle then you might get a government willing to make peace. However since Britain is still pretty secure from invasion and very likely holds Egypt and most of Africa and S Asia then its not going to be a surrender and few if any British politicians would trust the word of any Nazi so Germany is going to have to make some serious choices if it wants peace with Britain. Gibraltar and Malta will probably be lost and Italy might get their E African colonies back - albeit probably in a state of rebellion but I can't see Britain giving up control of Egypt and the canal and possibly insisting on keeping the Canaries. - A lot would depend on the timing. If Churchill say had a decapitating stroke just after Japan joins the war it looks bad but the US have just been pulled into the conflict and Russia is holding and about to inflict a serious defeat on the Germans. In the 6 months before that things are possibly looking bad as the Germans storm through much of Russia and it looks as if it will collapse. After about mid 42 Britain's position is looking strong presuming that the Japanese are defeated as OTL and by end 42 unless mismanagement means there is literally starvation breaking out in Britain the country will see things through to the end. If Spain did enter the war it might mean more troops for the Axis in the latter stages but probably by indirect means. I.e. because there's no Med campaign the Axis doesn't have its OTL substantial losses in Tunisia and Germany doesn't have to replace Italian troops in Italy and the Balkans. Its unlikely to get more troops directly from Spain and might even get less as Franco now has to face both more resistance, supported by Britain and the threat, especially once the US enters the war, of invasion so there would need to be at least some effort on beach defences and fortifications. You could well end up going the other way with some German army units sent to Spain, although Germany is likely to end up better off without a Med campaign. Economically since occupied Europe struggled to feed itself and most of any surplus of course went to Germany I'm not sure if Franco could get much if any additional grain or other foodstuff from an alliance with Germany and it would definitely lose the imports from the US. There would be more chance for blockade runners to reach the rest of the world with Spanish ports available and Gibraltar closed but their not likely to be carrying grain. As such the Spanish food situation is likely to deteriorate. Extra coal won't be very important as Germany has plenty of its own and 160k ton of oil sounds a lot but where is this from? I don't think Spain has any oil producing capacity outside possibly its colonies, which will be isolated so this could be a one off boost to the Axis stockpile but how much would Franco be willing to give up? Presuming that Spanish belligerence means no substantial fighting in the Med and that the allies avoid a disaster in N France in 43, most likely by only invading in 44 and not suffering significantly greater losses its probably going to be a bloodier war for much of the continent and Stalin will hold somewhat more territory as Greece will probably end up in his hands and there's also a possible chance he might get into N Italy. Spain and N Africa would be occupied at the end of the conflict, possibly shortly before, but Spain could end up going communist which could be awkward. Britain, baring butterflies, is likely to be even more strained by the end of the war.
That is a lot of typing and a lot of interesting stuff to read stevep. Do you agree that Portugal might get nerves if Spain joins the Axis. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 24, 2019 14:35:16 GMT
Lordroel Well if Gibraltar falls, which is likely it makes things more difficult for the RN and probably leads to the fall of Malta. That in turn could take a lot of pressure off the fleet in the Med without the need to supply it, but does mean that Britain can't rush supplies through the Med as it did in late 1940 including important units for Operation Compass so that might not occur or be delayed. [Although that could have pluses as well as negatives for the allies.] However unless Churchill really screws things up and that's possible , its very doubtful that the Axis will take Suez as El Alamein is a natural bottleneck and a hell of a long way from even the small port at Tobruk. Italy could well end up taking Tunisia and other places from Vichy and that would reduce the sea link between it and N Africa and definitely doom Malta to occupation. However while the RN and RAF were very effective at times in cutting the link landing supplies and men at Tunis means an even longer march to the front. I have seen it argued that even if no single Italian merchant ship was sunk, while those and the escorts would have survived little if no extra supplies would have reached the front, especially when it was sitting on the Egyptian border or even worse at El Alamein. There are no railways east of Tripoli IIRC so everything has to be brought forward by sea to Tobruk, which is a pretty small port or carried overland, which consumes huge amounts of oil. Also if Hitler allows both Spain and Italy to carve chunks out of the French empire and homeland then Vichy France is probably dead pretty quickly and most of the colonies quickly go Free French. [Which could be awkward in the case of FIC depending on what this occurs]. Possibly Algeria as well although its unlikely it could last for long and the bulk of the French fleet probably either gets sunk or escapes to the allies. Wholesale defections to the FF would boost their resources and prestige and give a number of useful bases to the allies. Also the US, which for quite a while favoured Vichy over the FF is going to be further alienated while Hitler has again shown his word is worthless. Loss of Gibraltar and use of Spanish ports by German and possibly Italian subs, a/c and raiders would be a serious problem for Britain. However taking the Canary Is which was planned and possibly other Spanish possessions would help counter this. Also given its limited infrastructure Spain might not be able to operate much without a lot of development - especially if Britain is able to trash most of Gib's dockyard before its captured. An invasion of Spain would be difficult if done correctly. However possibly landings in Morocco and clearing N Africa via that then heading north might happen, although it would be longer and bloodier. There is of course another option. Operation Torch OTL involved Anglo-American landings on a pro-Axis neutral, i.e. Vichy France. TTL it could be Portugal, which would probably gain a fair measure of surprise and give a base, although if say in late 42 early 43 its probably going to be a long job to clear much of Spain. Alternatively as the article said possibly bi-pass it totally and just go into Normandy, although probably going to be much more difficult without any significant fighting in the Med west of Egypt. Churchill won't make peace with Hitler but its possible if things were really looking hopeless that he could lose a vote of confidence in the Commons and be forced to resign. However that presumes either a massive revolt by the Tories or Labour voting against him which both seem highly unlikely. Even the extreme left will support continuing of the war after the Soviets are attacked.
If somehow this did happen, or possibly more likely his health suffers a serious/fatal decline due to the pressure, plus his lifestyle then you might get a government willing to make peace. However since Britain is still pretty secure from invasion and very likely holds Egypt and most of Africa and S Asia then its not going to be a surrender and few if any British politicians would trust the word of any Nazi so Germany is going to have to make some serious choices if it wants peace with Britain. Gibraltar and Malta will probably be lost and Italy might get their E African colonies back - albeit probably in a state of rebellion but I can't see Britain giving up control of Egypt and the canal and possibly insisting on keeping the Canaries. - A lot would depend on the timing. If Churchill say had a decapitating stroke just after Japan joins the war it looks bad but the US have just been pulled into the conflict and Russia is holding and about to inflict a serious defeat on the Germans. In the 6 months before that things are possibly looking bad as the Germans storm through much of Russia and it looks as if it will collapse. After about mid 42 Britain's position is looking strong presuming that the Japanese are defeated as OTL and by end 42 unless mismanagement means there is literally starvation breaking out in Britain the country will see things through to the end. If Spain did enter the war it might mean more troops for the Axis in the latter stages but probably by indirect means. I.e. because there's no Med campaign the Axis doesn't have its OTL substantial losses in Tunisia and Germany doesn't have to replace Italian troops in Italy and the Balkans. Its unlikely to get more troops directly from Spain and might even get less as Franco now has to face both more resistance, supported by Britain and the threat, especially once the US enters the war, of invasion so there would need to be at least some effort on beach defences and fortifications. You could well end up going the other way with some German army units sent to Spain, although Germany is likely to end up better off without a Med campaign. Economically since occupied Europe struggled to feed itself and most of any surplus of course went to Germany I'm not sure if Franco could get much if any additional grain or other foodstuff from an alliance with Germany and it would definitely lose the imports from the US. There would be more chance for blockade runners to reach the rest of the world with Spanish ports available and Gibraltar closed but their not likely to be carrying grain. As such the Spanish food situation is likely to deteriorate. Extra coal won't be very important as Germany has plenty of its own and 160k ton of oil sounds a lot but where is this from? I don't think Spain has any oil producing capacity outside possibly its colonies, which will be isolated so this could be a one off boost to the Axis stockpile but how much would Franco be willing to give up? Presuming that Spanish belligerence means no substantial fighting in the Med and that the allies avoid a disaster in N France in 43, most likely by only invading in 44 and not suffering significantly greater losses its probably going to be a bloodier war for much of the continent and Stalin will hold somewhat more territory as Greece will probably end up in his hands and there's also a possible chance he might get into N Italy. Spain and N Africa would be occupied at the end of the conflict, possibly shortly before, but Spain could end up going communist which could be awkward. Britain, baring butterflies, is likely to be even more strained by the end of the war.
That is a lot of typing and a lot of interesting stuff to read stevep . Do you agree that Portugal might get nerves if Spain joins the Axis.
You know me I hate long and detailed posts. 
Their definitely in an awkward position. Traditionally a British ally and with a sizeable colonial empire and their own Atlantic islands which would be vulnerable if they joined the Axis. On the other hand their government is basically a fascist one and they now have potentially panzers literally on the border. Going to have to handle this very carefully.
OTL Portugal allowed Britain to use the Azores as a base in 43 - see Azores WWII British basing, but this is unlikely to happen TTL. That reference is not totally accurate as if you actually go to the link for Operation Alacrity they relate to allied plans to seize the islands by force.
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archangel
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Post by archangel on Feb 25, 2019 1:35:09 GMT
OTL Portugal was very worried about Spain joining the Axis, and about the possibility of some within Spanish government pursuing an ultranationalist and expansionist policy. Portugal would not be defeatable by 1939 Spain alone, but things would be much worse with German intervention. While the Estado Novo was a clerical-fascist regime, it had more in common ideologically with pre-Anschluss Austria than with Nazi Germany, so it would try to avoid joining the Axis by all means.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Feb 25, 2019 15:42:08 GMT
OTL Portugal was very worried about Spain joining the Axis, and about the possibility of some within Spanish government pursuing an ultranationalist and expansionist policy. Portugal would not be defeatable by 1939 Spain alone, but things would be much worse with German intervention. While the Estado Novo was a clerical-fascist regime, it had more in common ideologically with pre-Anschluss Austria than with Nazi Germany, so it would try to avoid joining the Axis by all means.
If the Axis went for Portugal before say early 43 I doubt the allies would be able to substantially oppose it. Especially with Spanish bases probably making the Battle of the Atlantic tighter. However this would almost certainly mean the empire and island bases goes over to the allies. You might have an additional political incentive to try a landing in Portugal or just possibly allied forces are able to prevent a full conquest and an Iberian campaign would start from that. Could be tight but with increasing forces tied up against the Soviets and Hitler's desire to defeat them if the Axis did attack they probably wouldn't have enough forces in the short run for a prolonged campaign.
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, its very doubtful that the Axis will take Suez as El Alamein is a natural bottleneck and a hell of a long way from even the small port at Tobruk. Italy could well end up taking Tunisia and other places from Vichy and that would reduce the sea link between it and N Africa and definitely doom Malta to occupation. However while the RN and RAF were very effective at times in cutting the link landing supplies and men at Tunis means an even longer march to the front. I have seen it argued that even if no single Italian merchant ship was sunk, while those and the escorts would have survived little if no extra supplies would have reached the front, especially when it was sitting on the Egyptian border or even worse at El Alamein. There are no railways east of Tripoli IIRC so everything has to be brought forward by sea to Tobruk, which is a pretty small port or carried overland, which consumes huge amounts of oil.