|
|
Post by lukedalton on Feb 15, 2019 23:56:19 GMT
Well, beat the Red it's only a part of the effort, there are nationalist in Ukraine, the Baltic, Poland and Finland and while taking back the first two will be more or less easy, the last two will be much much more difficult as the white leadership at max is ready to give local autonomy but at this stage neither the polish or the finnish want to be part of Russia; so a Russo-Polish war will be still in program and frankly i doubt that the rest of the Entente (US included) will be ok with Russia inglobe back Poland and Finland and at max will obtain a more favorable border. In general i expect white Russia to be for many years very troubled as the only real thing that the white had in common was their anti-communist plus all the nationalist revolt and the direct consequences of the war Internationally speaking, well Ataturk will not have soviet support and so can be much less succesfull in his effort and the Caucasus will become a new game between various nations. With the URSS gone and the communist gone, the fear of the red wave will diminish as the fervor of the various communist party for a revolution and if things are more 'calm' the rise of fascism can be more easily stopped expecially in Italy. With Russia not deciding of not paying debt will ease the general economic situation of France a little
I'm doubtful about a White Russia seeking to retake Poland, as its likely to want links with the western powers and hence to avoid becoming an international pariah as the Soviets did.
The failure of Lenin's coup in Russia will reduce the fear of communism but not totally remove it so still likely to be some right wing hard-liners feeding off that fear. There is likely to be hostility towards refugees from Russia in some countries as there will be fears that at least some are communists.
I'm not sure that Russia will be able to pay much towards its foreign debts, either pre-war or wartime if its still been through a civil war as well as WWI. You might end up with some agreement that reduces it to say 10% or 20% of the original debt or something like that to minimise the economic damage as this way at least the western loaners will get something back and Russia won't be isolated from the western financial systems. Even if you had a much better situation for Russia, say the war ends a bit earlier and the Provisional government survives and manages to defeat any communist coup attempts, Russia would struggle to pay off its huge war time debts.
I doubt that anyone that get in charge will have enough political power to let part of the Empire going away without doing something about it, their life depend on it...litteraly and there were already some clash in Ukraine between white and Polish. People like Denikin already stated that the Empire was to remain united but agreed in give to the Polish some autonomy...the problem was that the Polish wanted independence and in any case they trusted the Russian (any russian) even less than the Italian trusted the Austro-Hungarian due to how the promised Polish autonomy ended in the Empire.
Better something than nothing and the important thing is to keep Russia in the system, even a big reduction of russian debt but not a total default will not stress the French and British economy as OTL, expecially during this crucial period
|
|
|
|
Post by TheRomanSlayer on Feb 16, 2019 4:39:47 GMT
You might have an alternate Polish leader who would be open to the idea of normalizing relations with Russia, and that would be Roman Dmowski. Jozef Pilsudski was the one who created the Intermarium project where there would be an alliance of Eastern European states that would act as a barrier against Russian revanchism.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,836 
Likes: 13,225
|
Post by stevep on Feb 16, 2019 11:50:28 GMT
I'm doubtful about a White Russia seeking to retake Poland, as its likely to want links with the western powers and hence to avoid becoming an international pariah as the Soviets did.
The failure of Lenin's coup in Russia will reduce the fear of communism but not totally remove it so still likely to be some right wing hard-liners feeding off that fear. There is likely to be hostility towards refugees from Russia in some countries as there will be fears that at least some are communists.
I'm not sure that Russia will be able to pay much towards its foreign debts, either pre-war or wartime if its still been through a civil war as well as WWI. You might end up with some agreement that reduces it to say 10% or 20% of the original debt or something like that to minimise the economic damage as this way at least the western loaners will get something back and Russia won't be isolated from the western financial systems. Even if you had a much better situation for Russia, say the war ends a bit earlier and the Provisional government survives and manages to defeat any communist coup attempts, Russia would struggle to pay off its huge war time debts.
I doubt that anyone that get in charge will have enough political power to let part of the Empire going away without doing something about it, their life depend on it...litteraly and there were already some clash in Ukraine between white and Polish. People like Denikin already stated that the Empire was to remain united but agreed in give to the Polish some autonomy...the problem was that the Polish wanted independence and in any case they trusted the Russian (any russian) even less than the Italian trusted the Austro-Hungarian due to how the promised Polish autonomy ended in the Empire.
Better something than nothing and the important thing is to keep Russia in the system, even a big reduction of russian debt but not a total default will not stress the French and British economy as OTL, expecially during this crucial period
The thing is that Poland is an internationally recognised state by 1919 so an attack on it is a threat to the recently achieved peace settlement and is likely to cause anger in a number of other states. Especially since its also seen as a check on any Polish revanchist. France might be less willing to support Poland against a white rather than a red Russia but if Russia was the aggressor I think its still pretty likely.
Agree that something is better than nothing on the debt issue for both sides.
|
|
